The European Parliament elections concluded on June 9, 2024. Although the newly elected EU Parliament is still centre-heavy, and Ursula von der Leyen has been nominated for a second term as European Commission chief, the most significant gains were seen among the rightwing and far-right parties in Europe. The environment-friendly Greens faced an enormous pushback.
“This election has given us two messages. First, there remains a majority in the centre for a strong Europe, and that is crucial for stability. In other words, the centre is holding. But it is also true that extremes on the left and the right have gained support, which is why the result comes with great responsibility for the parties in the centre,” said Ms. von der Leyen.
The EU Parliament comprises 720 seats, divided among the 27-nation EU bloc. The distribution of seats is based on each country’s population and economic prowess, with Germany having the most seats. National political parties with similar ideologies are grouped in the EU Parliament as long as a group has 23 European Parliament members (MEPs) from seven EU nations.
In this election, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) won the most with 188 seats, followed by the centre-left Social Democrats (S&D) at 136 seats. In contrast, the Greens and Liberals (the Renew group) lost significantly. The most gains were seen by the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) groupings. The political parties, which are not aligned with any bloc, comprising parties across ideologies (including new parties), saw a significant jump in their numbers. Even though the grand coalition of EPP, Renew, and S&D comfortably crossed the halfway mark and will most likely lead Parliament, the jump in the right and far-right factions could put roadblocks regarding many policy matters within the EU Parliament.
Germany and France
Germany (96) and France (81) generally send the most lawmakers to Brussels, but the wind blew rightwards in both countries.
In France, the National Rally (RN) led by Marine Le Pen won double the votes compared to French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party. This prompted Mr. Macron to dissolve the lower house of the French parliament and call for snap elections.
“I have heard your message, your concerns, and I will not leave them unanswered. I know I can count on you to vote massively on June 30 and July 7. France needs a clear majority to act with serenity and harmony,” said President Macron in a statement.
In the two-round French elections, the RN comfortably took the lead in the first round. However, in the second round, which concluded on July 7, the voting patterns changed, and the coalition of leftwing parties, the New Popular Front, emerged at the top, pushing the far-right RN to third position.
Nicolas Téterchen, a researcher at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), said the rise of right-wing and far-right parties was due to a feeling of fear, particularly in the face of immigration and fear of war. He noted that the RN, while a strong party in France, came in third despite having many votes.
“As the 2027 presidential elections [in France] are a national election with no constituencies, unlike the legislative elections, the situation could be quite different. The RN wants to be perceived as a normal mainstream party and not like the extreme Alternative for Germany (AfD). The real question remains if the big parties in France and Germany would be willing to work with the far-right parties based on their national strategies,” said Mr. Téterchen.
In Germany, the election results followed the national polling trends, with the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) winning the most seats and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) coming in second. An election result map of Germany showed how the eastern part of the country voted for the AfD. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) came in third.
“In Germany, the East and West have completely different voting patterns. Generations are changing, and the newer generation has grown up without knowing the physical separation between the East and the West. This generation is confronted for the first time with major geopolitical challenges, the responsibilities, and the fear they entail,” said Mr. Téterchen.
Despite the anti-AfD protests that rocked Germany at the start of the year following a secret plan to “remigrate” non-Germans, the AfD membership has grown by 60% to 46,681 since January 2023, according to the AfD co-chief Tino Chrupalla. With just two months before three state elections in Germany, where the AfD is the favourite, things don’t look like they will change much, notes Mr. Téterchen.
“In Germany, the AfD has got huge numbers. It puts them in a strong position going into the state elections. But the real question is, will other parties be willing to work with the AfD?” asked Mr. Téterchen, noting that the mainstream Christian Democrats (CDU) (the top German political party in EU elections and current opposition in Germany) maintained their “firewall” of not forming alliances with the extreme AfD.
While the “centre still holds” in the European Parliament, the new party groupings could impact pressing matters, chief among them being immigration and defence policy, said Mr. Teterchen.
“Weapons delivery to Ukraine is a big issue, and many parties, including some left-wing parties like Bundnis Sarah Wagenknecht [BSW from Germany], are insisting on going slow on Ukraine. In France, there are similarities in discourse, certain shared interests, and a common vision of things between the RN and Moscow,” said Mr. Teterchen.
Shairee Malhotra, Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in New Delhi, concurred. “The gains made by the far-right, plus the launch of the new Patriots for Europe group that is now the third largest force in the European Parliament, aim to undermine the EU from within and, thus, have consequences for the functioning of the EU itself. In terms of foreign policy, given their pro-Putin nature, the far-right surge may disrupt ongoing EU support for Ukraine,” said Ms. Malhotra.
There has been a divide among the right-wing parties, which formed two groups after disbanding the earlier Identity and Democracy (ID) coalition. Patriots for Europe comprises Ms. Le Pen’s RN and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz, among other parties. The German AfD, kicked out of the ID group before the EU Elections, gathered 25 MEPs from eight EU nations to create the Europe of Sovereign Nations group.
Given that the next EU Parliament’s composition remains centre-heavy, Ms. Malhotra feels the broad trajectory of EU-India ties, which have been on an upswing in recent years, is likely to continue as EU-India strategic partnerships enter their 20th year.
Cooperation with India
“The EU and India currently have a number of dialogues, such as the Trade and Technology Council, the EU-India connectivity partnership, and an MoU on semiconductor cooperation, all launched under an EPP leadership. Given the EPP’s numbers in the European Parliament and if President von der Leyen secures a second term, the Commission will persist in its strategy of “de-risking” from China, which also augurs well for cooperation with India. Common concerns about China and goals of reducing dependencies, securing supply chains, and diversifying trade partners will provide opportunities for collaboration,” said Ms. Malhotra.
The only bone of contention remains the EU-India free-trade agreement (FTA) negotiations.
“Even though trade policy falls under the ambit of the European Commission, any potential EU FTA has to be approved by the European Parliament. India’s demands for greater mobility for its professionals directly clash with the far-right’s interests of curbing immigration into Europe,” said Ms. Malhotra.
Impact on immigration policies
One thing that unites right-wing and far-right parties is their anti-immigration stance. With France, Germany, and Italy seeing massive support for far-right parties, speculations are rife that migration-related policies will become stricter and can also stall EU expansion reforms.
Some experts feel that the far-right’s anti-immigration rhetoric has been seeing mainstream adoption, judging by some aspects of the European Pact on Migration that passed in April this year.
Tarik Abou-Chadi, an associate professor at the University of Oxford specialising in EU and Comparative European Politics, noted how the centre-left coalition government in Germany also played a role in watering down the immigration issue.
At a panel organised by the Heinrich Boell Foundation, Mr. Abou-Chadi said, “The asylum-related compromises, including the remuneration cards for shopping, deporting people to Afghanistan, I didn’t see the Greens oppose these issues. It’s not just the right-wing parties; even the government has actively promoted their line on immigration. Asylum is a product of media penetration on all channels. There is no progressive connotation of this topic. The most important issue is who is more effective in limiting migration.”
Impact on Climate Policies
The Green faction suffered a massive loss in the elections, going from the fourth largest party (in 2019 elections) to the sixth largest party in 2024—from 77 seats in 2019 to 54 seats in 2024.
Charly Heberer, senior policy advisor for EU Climate Policy at Germanwatch, noted that the Greens lost most of their seats in France and Germany, which wasn’t a huge surprise. “One reason in Germany is voters’ frustration with the current coalition [Greens, Free Democrats and Social Democrats], which even lost considerably higher shares of votes compared to the 2021 national election. Higher costs of living and security at the moment are perceived on average as two more imminent issues, but people want to avoid climate disasters at the same time. The far-right has mainly gained votes from people who feel disenfranchised with the political systems and who wish for a sovereignist policy, including and especially on migration issues”
The Green Deal, approved by the European Parliament in 2020, aims to make Europe climate-neutral by 2050. When asked if the rise of far-right parties could stall developments, Mr. Heberer disagreed, citing an internal study that showed that climate issues still polled high in people’s expectations EU-wide.
“The Christian Democrat EPP have it in their hands. When they remain behind the Green Deal, the Parliament has clear majorities. We are optimistic that they will constructively deal with proposals from the European Commission once they have voted them into office,” said Mr. Heberer.
Germanwatch also hopes for a social climate policy, so low-income households aren’t left out of climate-focused programmes. “The upcoming changes require greater solidarity between the EU member states. To this end, the Social Climate Fund, which has been too small to date, should be expanded. The EU must actively support the member states in the socially just implementation of climate protection. This will help to achieve the climate targets and strengthen social cohesion,” said Mr. Heberer.
The deadline for the party groupings was on July 15. After that, the new EU Parliament will hold its inaugural sitting between July 16 and 19 in Strasbourg. This period will also see the election of the President, 14 Vice-Presidents, and five Quaestors (responsible for administrative and financial matters directly concerning MEPs and their working conditions). Roberta Metsola has already been re-elected as the European Parliament President.
(Nimish Sawant is an independent journalist based in Berlin)
