Parliament on Wednesday took up a discussion on Wayanad landslide under a ‘calling attention’ motion. In his response, Union Home Minister Amit Shah made several claims on early warning systems in India and how they were utilised to alert the Kerala government ahead of the tragedy. The Hindu takes a closer look at these claims.
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What the minister said:
“On July 18, an early warning was issued saying that Kerala will receive more than normal rainfall in western coastal area. On July 23, it was reframed to very heavy rainfall. On July 25, the warning was made more specific to “heavy to very heavy” rainfall. ”Amit Shah in Lok Sabha
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) press release dated July 18 issued on outlook for a flash flood risk in northern parts of Kerala (among other places) until 11.30 a.m. of July 19.
The extended range forecast, also issued on the same day for July 18-31, carried no mention of Kerala for the period, however.
The IMD press release published on July 23 warned of “very heavy rainfall at isolated places” in Kerala and Mahe on July 25 (suggesting action), and heavy rainfall over isolated/some places in Kerala and Mahe from July 23-27.
Watch: Kerala CM refutes Amit Shah’s claims of ’early warning’ about Wayanad landslides
The visual sub-division-wise weather warnings under this forecast carried an orange alert for the State of Kerala for July 25, and a yellow “watch” alert for July July 23, 24, 26, and 27. A yellow alert doesn’t specifically call for action.
Colour codes for IMD’s risk and response matrix.
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IMD
The press release published on July 25 said that “scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm and lightning [was] very likely over Kerala & Mahe (and other places) over the next five days”, and heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Kerala and Mahe from July 25-29. Visual warnings, as depicted on maps, also showed a yellow alert for Kerala, which doesn’t call for action.
The extended range forecast for July 25-August 7 predicted “scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm and lightning very likely over Kerala and Mahe [and other places], as well as heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places during the week”.
The July 29 press release by IMD issued an orange alert for very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Kerala and Mahe on July 29. The landslides occurred in the early hours of July 30.
A red alert for July 30 was issued in the press release published at 1.10 p.m., after the landslides had occurred. This press release also carried an orange alert for Kerala and Mahe for July 31 and August 1.
One Agromet forecast issued on July 23 for Wayanad district predicted 15 mm of rainfall in the district on July 30, the day when the landslides occurred after extremely heavy rainfall. Agromet, or the Agricultural Meteorlogy Division of IMD Pune, issues forecasts to minimise the impact of adverse weather on crops. Fifteen mm of rainfall is not cause for worry according to the IMD’s categorisation.
Agromet forecast issued on July 23
In its extended range forecast issued on July 25, IMD’s Meteorological Centre in Thiruvananthapuram predicted “cumulative above normal rainfall” for Kerala during July 2 to August 1, but did not raise any alarms or issue any warnings. August 2-8 was predicted to bring normal rainfall to the State.
The district rainfall forecast issued by the Thiruvananthapuram Met centre on July 26 predicted “light to moderate” rainfall for Wayanad district on July 30.
District rainfall forecast for Kerala and Lakshadweep, issued on July 26.
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IMD Thiruvananthapuram Met centre
Mr. Shah also said in the Rajya Sabha that an early warning for rainfall more than 20 cm and possible landslide was issued to Kerala on July 26. The IMD press release published on the day carried no such warnings. Like the previous editions, it carried a yellow watch alert under visual sub-division-wise weather warnings.
After Mr. Shah’s remarks, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan also said that the forecasts issued by IMD, the Geological Survey of India (responsible for issuing alerts related to landslides), and the Central Water Commission (responsible for issuing alerts on river-related floods) were off the mark.
“None of the agencies had issued a red alert for Wayanad ahead of the July 30 landslides,” he said.
Mr. Vijayan also shared an image titled ‘Experimental Rainfall Induced Landslide Forecast Bulletin’ for Wayanad district, issued on July 29 for two days. The bulletin predicted a “low possibility” of occurrences of landslides. This information is not available in the public domain.
Experimental Rainfall Induced Landslide Forecast Bulletin
| Photo Credit:
Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s WhatsApp channel
Following Mr. Shah’s remarks in Parliament, CPI(M) MPs in Rajya Sabha from Kerala, John Brittas, A.A. Rahim and V. Sivadasan, approached Chairman Jagdeep Dhankhar requesting him to direct Mr. Shah to clarify his statement. Mr. Sivadasan also moved a privilege notice with the Rajya Sabha Secretary-General alleging that Mr. Shah had misled the Upper House and that action must be initiated against him for breach of privilege.
What the minister said:
“Before 2014, there was only one way to respond to disasters – relief and rehabilitation.”Amit Shah in Lok Sabha
This is incorrect. India set up the National Monsoon Mission in 2012 (now referred to as Monsoon Mission, MM) to improve the country’s monsoon prediction capabilities. According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the first phase of MM, called MM-I, was completed successfully in 2017.
MM-II began in September 2017 to focus on “predicting weather/climate extremes and development of climatic applications based on monsoon forecasts, especially in the field of agriculture, hydrology and energy sector, while continuing model development activities”.
MM-II is a part of Atmosphere and Climate Research – Modelling Observing Systems and Services (ACROSS). The Budget allocation for ACROSS, however, reduced drastically in 2024. In 2023, a total of ₹680 crore was allocated for it, and the revised estimate put this figure at ₹550 crore. In 2024, only ₹500 crore have been allocated for ACROSS.
What the minister said:
“The world’s most modern early warning system was established after 2014 in this country. Only a few countries in the world can forecast calamities seven days before it happens. India is one of the few countries which can forecast calamity and make it public seven days before.”Amit Shah in Lok Sabha
This claim lacks nuance. For cyclones particularly, the 2023 ‘Global status of multi-hazard early warning systems’ report by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk and Reduction (UNDRR) says, “Even with state-of-the-art forecasts, the risk associated with tropical cyclones for a particular location can only be updated 3–5 days before landfall.” Tropical cyclones have caused extensive damage in India over the years.
Roxy Matthew Koll, climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, said that cyclone forecasting in India has improved tremendously during the last few decades. “The forecast models that we have can predict cyclones one week in advance [in terms of identifying them]. Compared to the 1999 Odisha cyclone, the fatalities are now low because we can predict them in advance and evacuate people. Only a few countries have the capacity to develop and run their own models. Many other countries depend on global agencies for weather services. India is assisting South Asian nations in terms of weather services and capacity building,” he said. Since our ocean basins are relatively small compared to the Atlantic and Pacific, landfall happens quicker here which is why risks associated cyclones can only be predicted 3-5 days before the landfall.
Talking about the 2023 Cyclone Mocha, the UNDRR report said, “The Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre in New Delhi provided critical information and guidance products on the formation, projected path and intensity of the tropical cyclone 3–5 days ahead of landfall.”
For rain, IMD’s standard operating procedures on weather forecasting and warning services state that a red-colour warning for extremely heavy rainfall cannot be issued more than 48 hours in advance, as opposed to the “seven days in advance” claim by Mr. Shah. Extremely heavy rainfall, which means more than 20cm of rain in 24 hours, is denoted by a red colour warning by the IMD, and it means “take action”. Mr. Shah claimed that an early warning for rainfall more than 20 cm and possible landslide was issued to Kerala on July 26, which counters IMD’s SOP.
Prediction of exact location and intensity for extreme rainfall events can be erroneous not just for India but even in other forecasting systems around the world.
