A historian who has correctly predicted the result of nine US elections has now weighed in on the Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris fight.

Allan Lichtman, often dubbed the “Nostradamus of US presidential elections”, makes his predictions based on his “13 keys to the White House”.

The method consists of 13 true or false questions, and if six or more keys go against the incumbent party, the 77-year-old American University historian predicts their defeat. If fewer than six went against it, it would win. 

The keys assess various factors, including economic performance, social stability, and incumbent charisma. Through careful analysis spanning historical data since former US president Abraham Lincoln’s era, Lichtman has crafted a predictive model that transcends conventional methods used by traditional psephologists.

Allan Lichtman’s “13 Keys To The White House”

From Ronald Reagan’s re-election triumph amid economic recession to Bill Clinton’s victory against George HW Bush, Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted crucial poll contests in the US.

The 13 keys to the White House as designed by him are as follows: 

Party Mandate: Post-midterm elections, the incumbent party secures more US House of Representatives seats than in the previous midterms.

Nomination Contest: There’s no significant challenge to the incumbent party’s nomination.

Incumbency: The sitting president represents the incumbent party.

Third-party Factor: There’s no noteworthy third-party or independent campaign.

Short-term Economic Stability: The economy doesn’t face recession during the election period.

Long-term Economic Growth: Real per capita economic growth equals or surpasses the average growth of the preceding two terms.

Policy Shift: The incumbent administration enacts major alterations in national policy.

Social Stability: There’s no prolonged social unrest throughout the term.

Scandal-Free: The incumbent administration remains free from major scandals.

Foreign/Military Mishaps: No significant failures occur in foreign or military affairs under the incumbent administration.

Foreign/Military Triumphs: The incumbent administration achieves significant successes in foreign or military matters.

Incumbent Charm: The incumbent party’s candidate possesses charisma or enjoys national hero status.

Challenger Appeal: The opposing party’s candidate lacks charisma or national hero status.

Donald Trump Or Kamala Harris, Who Will Win US Polls?

Allan Lichtman currently favours US Vice-President and Democrat Kamala Harris over her Republican rival Donald Trump. He told News Nation that he believes “a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.”

Democrats, with Harris being the likely nominee after Joe Biden quit the reelection race, currently hold six of the 13 keys, according to his prediction. These include a primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma.

“Right now, Democrats have lost three keys” by switching to Harris, he told News Nation. 

He said Democrats lost the “party mandate” key due to big losses in the 2022 mid-term elections. He also said Harris has lost the “charisma” and “incumbency” keys.

I plan to make my official prediction in August after the Democratic convention.
See my assessment below below on the 13 Keys Tracker on where The Keys stand NOW. Please listen to our LIVE show on 7–25–24, linked in the comments below, where we detail every Key. pic.twitter.com/pJpkpa3SzW

— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) July 26, 2024

Under his prediction model, Democrats, however, would have to lose three more keys in order for him to predict a Harris loss. But he says that’s not likely to happen.

He has said that he plans to make his official prediction for the 2024 White House race after the Democratic convention in August.

Watch: How Donald Trump’s conviction could impact U.S. election

In May, Donald Trump became the first former American President to be convicted of felony crimes, as a New York jury found him guilty of all 34 charges in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through a hush money payment to a porn actor who said the two had sex.

The conviction, and even imprisonment, will not bar Trump from continuing his pursuit of the White House, as the US goes to the polls later this year. He will be up against Joe Biden yet again.

This episode looks at the impact of Trump’s conviction on American politics, and if it will have any impact on voters. Prof. Allan Lichtman joins Narayan Lakshman in this episode. Mr Lichtman is a History professor at American University.

Prof Lichtman explains how through his predictive model, he was able to analyse the current scenario, looking at the economic and foreign policy, and also the popularity of Biden and Trump.

Host: Narayan Lakshman

Video: Thamodharan B

Production: Zeeshan Akhtar