Southeast Asian Foreign Ministers gather in Laos this week for talks on the disputed South China Sea and the conflict in Myanmar, with top diplomats from China and the United States slated to meet on the sidelines.

The three-day meeting of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) starts in the capital Vientiane on July 25.

Antony Blinken will meet Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on the sidelines of the event at which he will “discuss the importance of adherence to international law in the South China Sea”, according to the U.S. State Department.

Beijing claims the waterway — through which trillions of dollars of trade passes annually — almost in its entirety despite an international court ruling that its assertion has no legal basis.

A series of clashes between Philippine and Chinese vessels at flashpoint reefs in recent months have fuelled fears of a conflict that could drag in the United States owing to its mutual defence treaty with Manila.

ASEAN Ministers are expected to issue a joint communique after their meeting on Thursday.

In a draft seen by AFP, some Ministers expressed concerns over “serious incidents” in the waterway “which have eroded trust and confidence, increased tensions, and may undermine peace, security, and stability in the region”.

A Filipino sailor lost a thumb in a June 17 confrontation when Chinese coast guard members wielding knives, sticks and an axe foiled a Philippine Navy attempt to resupply its troops on a remote outpost.

Beijing and Manila later reached an agreement allowing for the resupply of the troops stationed on a rusty warship deliberately grounded on Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 to assert Manila’s claims to the area.

One diplomat who is attending the meeting in Vientiane said China’s assertiveness in the sea was pushing some Southeast Asian countries closer to the United States.

Diplomats in the region were also preparing for the possibility of a Donald Trump victory in November’s U.S. election, they said, requesting anonymity to speak to the media.

ASEAN countries “more or less have a feel of how to deal with him… They know what are his trigger points, what he likes, what he dislikes,” he said.

Myanmar

Also on the agenda in Vientiane is the civil war in Myanmar, sparked by a military coup in 2021.

ASEAN, of which Myanmar is a member, has led diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis but has made little progress.

The junta is excluded from the bloc’s top-level meetings over its refusal to negotiate with its opponents and its brutal crackdown on dissent.

Myanmar is expected to send a senior bureaucrat to this week’s meeting, according to several sources.

The military’s readiness to re-engage with ASEAN diplomatically was a “sign of the junta’s weakened position”, a Southeast Asian diplomat, who will attend the talks, told AFP on condition of anonymity.

The generals have yet to make any meaningful counterattack following an offensive by ethnic armed groups in October that seized swaths of territory along the border with China.

The losses triggered rare public criticism of its top leadership.

“The centre is still solid under the junta,” the diplomat said, warning Myanmar could “become a failed state”.

The draft communique seen by AFP said ministers “strongly condemned” the continued violence.

The crisis has divided the bloc, with Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines calling for tougher action against the junta.

Thailand has held its own bilateral talks with the generals as well as detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo
| Photo Credit: AP

Indonesia warned on September 5 against Southeast Asia’s bloc getting dragged into big-power rivalry as leaders gathered for a summit seeking to dispel worry about rifts over peace efforts in Myanmar and to reaffirm the relevance of their disparate group.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo, opening a summit of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), called on the group to devise a “long-term tactical strategy that is relevant and meets people’s expectations”.

“ASEAN has agreed to not be a proxy to any powers. Don’t turn our ship into an arena for rivalry that is destructive,” Mr. Widodo said.

“We, as leaders, have ensure this ship keeps moving and sailing and we must become its captain to achieve peace, stability, and prosperity together.”

Founded at the height of the Cold War in the 1960s to oppose the spread of communism, the politically diverse grouping prioritises unity and non-interference in members’ internal affairs.

But critics say that has limited its scope for action when it comes to handling issues like fellow member Myanmar, where violence rages two years after the military seized power in a 2021 coup.

ASEAN has banned Myanmar’s military leaders from its high-level meetings but differences have emerged with Indonesia attempting to engage all sides to push an ASEAN peace plan and Thailand trying to engage Myanmar’s military leaders.

Malaysia called on Monday for “strong” measures against the generals saying they had created “obstacles” to the ASEAN peace plan.

‘Reassert Relevance’

Former Indonesian foreign minister Marty Natalegawa said the bloc must adapt to challenges or risk oblivion.

“Obituaries on ASEAN actually have been written many times over, but somehow all those times, ASEAN has been able to reinvent itself and reassert its relevance. I feel today we are at one of those junctures,” he told an ASEAN business forum on Sunday.

China and its sharpening rivalry with the United States also loom over the meeting.

Some ASEAN members have focused on developing close diplomatic, business and military ties with Beijing while others are more wary.

The summit comes days after China released a “10-dash line” map, illustrating its claim to an extensive portion of the South China Sea that will likely add urgency to negotiations on a long-delayed code of conduct in the strategic waterway.

ASEAN member states Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines, which have overlapping claims in the South China Sea, have rejected China’s map.

Later this week, ASEAN leaders will hold an East Asia summit, a wider forum that includes China, India, Japan, Russia and the United States.

Adding to unease about ASEAN’s relevance, U.S. President Joe Biden is not attending the talks. Vice President Kamala Harris will attend instead. Chinese Premier Li Qiang will also attend.