Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses a press conference on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit at Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi.
| Photo Credit: PTI

Any initiative that isolates Russia in the Black Sea Grain Initiative is bound to fail, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow would return to the “collective implementation” of the grain deal “the same day” their conditions for export of own grain and fertilizers to the global markets are met.

“We believe that any initiative that isolates Russia is bound to fail. Its success is a very little possibility. We believe that any step that may escalate the tensions in the Black Sea should be avoided… We are going to have continuous talks…,” Mr. Erdogan said at a press conference here. He said representatives of Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations would meet very soon on this issue.

Giving details of the initiative so far, Mr. Erdogan said so far, 33 million tonnes of grain had been exported by Russia through the Black Sea corridor. ”Fact is, out of this, 33% was bought by the West, 14% came to us and a smaller amount went to Africa.”

Mr. Erdogan said Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted that the West had not kept the promises they made to Moscow. “He [Mr. Putin] says they [Russia] can possibly give the grain free of charge, turn it into flour, join hands with Qatar and give it to poor African countries,” Mr. Erdogan said.

“This is what Putin said lastly on Monday,” Mr. Erdogan added, referring to his visit to Moscow.

“We now favour this proposal,” Mr. Edrogan said, adding that poor countries in Africa were wondering how much grain would come out of Russia.

The war in Ukraine disrupted grain supplies from Ukraine and as the repercussions were felt across the globe, a deal was stuck between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by Turkey and the UN, under which ships carrying grain were given a safe passage through the Black Sea. However, the deal collapsed in July as Russia pulled out of it.

Speaking to the media on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit that concluded on Sunday, Mr. Lavrov said that when all the necessary actions for removing obstacles for Russian grain and fertilizer exports are implemented, the same day Russia “will return to the collective implementation of the Ukrainian part of the ‘Black Sea initiative’.”

Mr. Lavrov said that meant restoring Russian banks’ access to the SWIFT system and allowing exporters to avail insurance for the grain and other commodity exports.

Criticising the UN Secretary General for working “unilaterally” for only one side, Mr. Lavrov said the assurances given thus far meant Russia would have to revive the grain deal immediately, but only receive relief for its exports over a few months.

Referring to the initiative, the Delhi Declaration adopted at the G-20 Summit called for “full, timely and effective implementation to ensure the immediate and unimpeded deliveries of grain, foodstuffs, and fertilizers/inputs from the Russian Federation and Ukraine”.

“This is necessary to meet the demand in developing and least developed countries, particularly those in Africa,” it stated.

Russia and Ukraine together account for 21% of global grain trade. The UN and other international agencies have been calling for an urgent revival of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which had helped stabilise food prices to some extent in the past year after the Ukraine conflict began.

Turkish-flagged bulker TQ Samsun, carrying grain under U.N.’s Black Sea Grain Initiative, is pictured in the Black Sea, north of Bosphorus Strait, off Istanbul, Turkey. File.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The G-20 leaders’ recommendation to revive the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) to help the movement of grains, food, and fertilisers from Russia and Ukraine to the rest of the world, would help ease inflation in several countries, but may not affect India’s own inflation trajectory much, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said.

Speaking after the leaders adopted the New Delhi Declaration, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar noted that leaders recognised the significant implications for the global economy arising from the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the impact it has had especially on developing and least developing nations that are still recovering from the pandemic and economic disruption. “The three F’s — Food, Fuel, and Fertilisers — were issues of special concern,” he said.

G-20 Summit 2023 Sept. 9 updates 

“On inflation, globally, it will have an impact as soon as the understanding is executed and grain movement starts from Russia and Ukraine. As a result, inflation in food grains should cool off,” Ms. Sitharaman said.

“Domestically, we don’t depend so much on imports for grains, apart from maybe sunflower oil, our imports are not so much dependent on those two countries. And to the extent vegetable oil is concerned, there may be some relief. But largely, India’s domestic inflation is impacted by the vagaries of monsoon and supply side issues, not so much as other countries that depend a lot more on grain imports for their consumption,” the Minister said.

G-20 leaders, as per Para 11 of the declaration, highlighted the “human suffering and negative added impacts of the war in Ukraine with regard to global food and energy security, supply chains, macro-financial stability, inflation and growth” and “called for the cessation of military destruction or other attacks on relevant infrastructure”. Mooting “immediate and unimpeded deliveries of grain, foodstuffs, and fertilizers/inputs from the Russian Federation and Ukraine”, they said this is “necessary to meet the demand in developing and least developed countries, particularly those in Africa”.

African Union to join G-20, as Sherpas reach a deal

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Delhi may turn venue for dialogue on reviving the Black Sea Grain Initiative

As world leaders gather in Delhi on Friday ahead of the G-20 summit, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is on a mission to revive the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI or BSI), in talks on the sidelines of the summit hosted by India. The deal that facilitates export of grain from Russia and Ukraine lapsed in July. Among those in Delhi, Turkiye President Recep Erdogan, who met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi earlier this week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, as well as leaders of European Union and UN officials will be trying to work a compromise that would give assurances to Russia, for an exchange that would allow grain export from blockaded Ukrainian ports to restart at the earliest, sources told The Hindu. 

At G-20, Japan backs India, not China, as bridge to Global South: Japanese experts

Beyond the immediate outcomes of the G-20 Summit, one key takeaway with longer term implications is the positioning of India as a key bridge to the “Global South” for Japan and the West, in the view of Japanese experts. “Japan sees a rivalry over the leadership of the ‘Global South’ between India and China, and it is in the interest of Japan and the G-7 that India plays a leading role in the ‘Global South’, not China,” said Hiroyuki Akita, Tokyo-based strategic affairs commentator at Nikkei, in an interview with The Hindu.

Modi, Biden to discuss trade issues, jet engine, drone deals during meet

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Bharat Jodo Yatra was a people’s movement: Congress

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Assets worth over $1.8 billion recovered under Fugitive Economic Offenders Act in four years: Union Minister Jitendra Singh

Union Minister Jitendra Singh on Thursday said assets worth more than $12 billion had been attached since 2014 under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), while in the past about four years, assets worth over $1.8 billion had been recovered under the Fugitive Economic Offenders Act (FEOA). In his inaugural address at the first-ever International Day of Police Cooperation, after conferring police medals to the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) officials at an investiture ceremony at the agency headquarters, Dr. Singh said the FEOA was brought in by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Union government.

U.N. chief says ‘systematic repression’ crushing Myanmar democracy hopes

Hopes of a return to democracy in junta-ruled Myanmar are being crushed by “systematic repression”, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on September 7 at a summit in Indonesia with the United States, China and regional leaders. Myanmar has been ravaged by deadly violence since a 2021 military coup ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s government, unleashing a bloody crackdown on dissent.

Indonesia warns against new conflicts as U.S., China, Russia attend ASEAN summit

Indonesia warned leaders including U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov against sharpening rivalries as they wrapped up an East Asia summit in Jakarta on Thursday. The meeting brought Washington and Beijing into contact a day after Mr. Li warned major powers must manage differences to avoid a “new Cold War”, and ahead of the G20 summit in New Delhi this week that Chinese President Xi Jinping will miss. Interactions between the officials from the world’s top two economies are being closely watched as they seek to control tensions that risk flaring anew over issues ranging from Taiwan to ties with Moscow and the competition for influence in the Pacific.

India keen on having Quad leaders as Chief Guests for 2024 Republic Day parade

India is discussing the possibility of inviting leaders of the Quad grouping, comprising of India, Australia, Japan and the U.S., to the Republic Day parade on January 26, diplomatic sources confirmed. The possibility of U.S. President Joe Biden being the Chief Guest for the parade, with the Quad summit held a day prior, on January 25, is also being looked into, but given that January 26 is observed as Australia Day, it would be extremely difficult for their Prime Minister to be in India on that day, an official source said.

Caste discrimination survey in IIT-Delhi commenced and withdrawn

After two Dalit students allegedly committed suicide at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)-Delhi in the past two months, a campus-wide survey on caste discrimination circulated by the institute’s Board of Student Publications (BSP) was been suspended within hours of commencing. As soon as the survey was shared, complaints said the survey’s design was “biased, insensitive, and problematic”, with the institute’s official Scheduled Caste (SC)/Scheduled Tribe (ST) Cell stating that it had not been consulted on the survey.

Authorities forced us off the streets in the name of G-20 security, say city vendors

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Kings Cup 2023 | India lose to Iraq in penalty shootout after conceding debatable penalty, face Lebanon in bronze medal playoff

A Sunil Chhetri-less India conceded a late goal off a debatable penalty to miss out on their first ever win over higher-ranked Iraq, who won the King’s Cup semifinal clash via penalty shootout here on Thursday. India will take on Lebanon in the bronze-medal playoff, which will be followed by the summit clash between Iraq and Thailand on Sunday. In the other semifinal at the 700th Anniversary Stadium, Thailand defeated Lebanon 2-1.

Gukesh excited about the Asian Games, feels India has a fair chance

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Grocery item put on display for sale at a market, in New Delhi. File
| Photo Credit: Sushil Kumar Verma

India’s inflation woes are not over yet but food price spikes may be “transitory”, the Finance Ministry said on August 22, attributing the latest spike in headline inflation to global uncertainties triggered by the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative that has upset wheat and edible oil supplies, as well as disruptions in domestic farm output.

The impact of the global disruptions was “clearly evident” in the sharp surge in the retail inflation pace in July to a 15-month high of 7.44%, the Ministry said, noting that the 11.5% food inflation rate was “perhaps the third highest” since the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) series began in 2014. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food costs, was at a 39-month low of 4.9%, it emphasised.

The global uncertainty and domestic disruptions may keep inflationary pressures elevated for the coming months, warranting greater vigilance from the government and the central bank, the review stressed, underlining the need to bring the focus back on maintaining macroeconomic stability.

“Cereals, pulses and vegetables exhibited double-digit growth… [but] only 48% of food items have inflation of above 6%, and this includes 14 food items with inflation in double digits. Items like tomato, green chilli, ginger and garlic witnessed inflation of more than 50%,” the Ministry said in its monthly economic review for July.

Holding these “abnormal” upticks in some items responsible for fuelling high food inflation last month, the review said this is expected to be transitory. “Tomato prices are likely to decline with the arrival of fresh stocks by the end of August or early September. Further enhanced imports of tur dal are expected to moderate pulses inflation,” it pointed out, arguing that these and other government efforts “can soon materialise moderation in food inflation in the coming months”.

Dry conditions

Apart from the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative which has created “disorderly conditions around the supply of wheat and sunflower oil”, the Ministry noted that continued dry conditions in Canada and the U.S. have caused wheat prices to rise. “Subdued production growth of oil palm in Malaysia and concern over the production outlook of soybeans and rape seed in the U.S. and Canada led to a spike in vegetable oils price,” it added.

“Disruption in domestic production also aggravated the inflationary pressures. Interruption in the supply chain of tomatoes due to white fly disease in Kolar district, Karnataka and the swift arrival of monsoon in northern India caused a surge in tomato prices. Tur dal price also inflated due to deficient production in the Kharif season [of] 2022-23.”

Domestic consumption and investment demand are expected to continue driving India’s growth, but further global monetary tightening could hurt stock markets in emerging economies, the Ministry cautioned.