Taiwanese armoured vehicles roll down a street in Kinmen on May 24, 2024. China warned on May 24 that Taiwan’s leadership was pushing the self-ruled island into “a perilous situation of war and danger” and that it would go “further” if provoked, as Beijing conducted military drills around the territory.
| Photo Credit: AFP

China ended two days of war games around Taiwan, in which it simulated attacks with bombers and practiced boarding ships, and Taiwan’s defence ministry detailed on Saturday the surge of Chinese warplanes and warships involved.

Chinese State television’s military channel said late on Friday the drills had concluded. A commentary in the official People’s Liberation Army Daily said they had lasted for two days from Thursday to Friday, as previously announced.

China’s Defence Ministry did not answer calls seeking comment on Saturday.

China, which claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, launched the “Joint Sword – 2024A” exercises three days after Lai Ching-te became Taiwan’s President, a man Beijing says is a “separatist”.

Beijing said the exercises were “punishment” for Mr. Lai’s Monday inauguration speech, in which he said the two sides of the Taiwan Strait were “not subordinate to each other”, which China viewed as a declaration the two are separate countries.

Mr. Lai has repeatedly offered talks with China but been rebuffed. He says only Taiwan’s people can decide their future, and rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims. Taiwan’s government has condemned the drills and said it will not be cowed by Chinese pressure.

On Friday 46 Chinese military planes crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line, which previously served as an unofficial barrier between the two sides, Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said on Saturday. It said it had detected a total of 62 Chinese aircraft and 27 navy ships.

The aircraft, including advanced Su-30 fighters and nuclear-capable H-6 bombers, flew in the strait as well as down into the Bashi Channel, which separates Taiwan from the Philippines, the ministry said.

On Friday it published footage taken by Taiwanese air force planes of a Chinese J-16 fighter and an H-6 but did not say exactly where it was taken.

China has over the past four years regularly staged military activities around Taiwan, including large-scale war games in 2022 and in 2023.

The People’s Liberation Army Daily commentary, published as “the voice of the military”, said Mr. Lai was determined to act as a “pawn” for external forces to curb China’s development.

“If Taiwan independence separatist forces insist on going their own way or even take risks, the PLA will obey orders and take decisive action to resolutely smash all separatist plots,” it said.

India is studying possible responses to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan following discreet inquiries from the US on how the country could contribute in the event of a war, according to senior government officials.

About six weeks ago, Defense Chief General Anil Chauhan – the top military commander – commissioned a study to examine the wider impact of any war over the island that also involves the US and its allies, and what action India could take in response, according to two senior Indian officials, who asked not to be named since discussions are private. The order came after the US raised the issue in several different forums, they said.

The study will assess various war scenarios and provide options for India in case a conflict breaks out, they said. Some military commanders believe that strong statements may suffice as a response in case the war is short, but ultimately that will not be enough if the conflict drags on like Russia’s war in Ukraine, the officials said.

India’s preparation for a potential war over Taiwan shows how its policy of “multi-alignment” will be tested in the event of a drastic deterioration of US-China ties. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has forged its own path on international relations, effectively hedging its bets by developing close ties to the US while refusing to join international sanctions on Russia.

Yet tensions with China have also flared along their disputed Himalayan border, contributing to a deterioration in relations that may have prompted President Xi Jinping to skip the Group of 20 summit this weekend in New Delhi. India has strengthened defense ties with the US in recent years, joining the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue along with Japan and Australia – a band of democracies intent on countering China’s growing influence.

One option the Indian military will study involves serving as a logistics hub to provide repair and maintenance facilities for allied warships and aircraft, as well as food, fuel and medical equipment for armies resisting China, the officials said. A more extreme scenario, they added, would assess the potential for India to get directly involved along their northern border, opening a new theater of war for China.

While no deadline has been set to complete the study, the Indian military is under orders to finish it as soon as possible, one of the officials said. The options prepared will be available for PM Modi and other political leaders to make a final call on any action should the need arise, the official said.

The Defence and Foreign ministries didn’t respond to emailed questions. The US State Department didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

“By hyping up the Taiwan question, creating tensions and provoking confrontation, the US attempts to turn the Taiwan question into an international issue,” Mao Ning, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, told reporters in Beijing on Friday. “This is highly dangerous.”

India and China have mobilized thousands of troops, artillery guns, tanks and missiles closer to the unmarked border running some 3,500 km, roughly the length of the US-Mexico boundary. Diplomatic talks have yielded little, with China last month releasing a new map claiming India-controlled territory that Foreign Minister S Jaishankar described as “absurd.”

India has publicly resisted efforts to make the Quad appear like a military alliance, and remains reliant on Russia – China’s most important diplomatic partner – for weapons that would be used in any regional war. Even so, it has quietly sought better relations with Taiwan: Three former Indian military chiefs who stepped down in the past year all visited Taiwan last month.

Five years ago, India and the US signed a Logistics-Exchange Memorandum of Agreement, a foundational pact to allow refueling and replenishing of warships and aircraft, as well as access to bases when required.

Even though India is examining military options, it remains unlikely that the nation would get involved directly in a war over Taiwan, according to Lisa Curtis, senior fellow and director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Washington-based Centre for a New American Security, who earlier worked with the National Security Council, CIA and the State Department. It’s possible India may provide access to places like the Andaman and Nicobar Islands near Southeast Asia, she added.

“If there were to be some kind of conflict or crises in the Taiwan Strait, I think India’s position would be to stand back and not get militarily involved,” she said. “Even though they may support Taiwan with statements and humanitarian assistance, I think they would be very weary about providing any kind of military assistance to the United States.”

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)