After Iran mourned president Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a recent helicopter crash, the nation’s focus turns to an election next month for his successor, with the conservative camp seeking a loyalist to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The lead-up to the early vote on June 28 has opened up the field to a broad range of hopefuls from all political parties. The big question for them is how many candidacies will survive the vetting process in the Islamic republic.

Ultraconservative Raisi, who had more than a year left of his first term, died on May 19 alongside his foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and six others when their helicopter crashed into a fog-shrouded mountainside.

They were laid to rest in multi-day funeral rites drawing mass crowds of mourners.

The June vote will be held during a turbulent time, as the Gaza war rages between Iran’s arch-foe Israel and Tehran-backed Palestinian militant group Hamas, and amid continued diplomatic tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme.

Iran also faces sustained economic hardship, exacerbated by tough international sanctions reimposed after the United States withdrew from a landmark 2015 nuclear deal, and in the aftermath of widespread anti-government protests.

Mr. Khamenei, who has the final say in all matters of state, has assigned Raisi’s vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, 68, to assume interim duties for the next few weeks and organise the June election.

Media reports suggest Mr. Mokhber himself plans to run for Iran’s second-highest post, as do parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and several prominent former officials.

Among other hopefuls, ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili was one of the first to announce his candidacy.

Other contenders include moderate former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, and centrist Ali Larijani, who served as the speaker in parliament.

Populist ex-president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has so far kept voters guessing and said he is “checking the conditions to decide whether to register”.

“We have to wait for positive developments in the country,” he added.

Vetting process

Iran was rocked from late 2022 by nationwide protests sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian Kurd, following her arrest in Tehran over an alleged breach of the strict dress code for women.

Hundreds of people including dozens of security personnel were killed and thousands were arrested.

Political expert Abbas Abdi told the reformist newspaper Hammihan that if Iran’s “protesting community” sees an opportunity for change, it “will show its protest, activism and responsibility through participating in the election”.

He said that he was “sure that the reformists will win with a huge margin”, but only if they are allowed to participate — a major concern after many candidates were disqualified ahead of recent elections.

Mr. Abdi added that if the authorities permit a broad spectrum of candidates to run this time, “it will create the necessary hope in the people and lead to high participation”.

Under Iran’s election process, candidates will have several days to formally register, starting on May 30.

The final list, however, will depend on the outcome of the validation process by the conservative-dominated Guardian Council following a June 3 registration deadline.

The 12-member body, which is in charge of overseeing elections, had previously barred many candidates, among them Ahmadinejad and Larijani.

Recent parliamentary and presidential elections have seen plunging turnout, despite efforts by the authorities to encourage people to vote.

Ahead of Iran’s parliamentary elections held on March 1, the Guardian Council disqualified tens of thousands of candidates.

With many of them reformists and moderates, the vetting effectively helped Iran’s conservative and ultraconservative politicians tighten their grip on power.

The March legislative vote saw the lowest turnout since 1979.

Low voter turnout

The 2021 election that brought Raisi to power also saw many reformist and moderate figures disqualified from the race, and the turnout hit a record low for any presidential polls in Iran.

During his years in office, Raisi faced a barrage of criticism from former officials and activists, including over his handling of an already fragile economy.

Raging inflation, rampant unemployment and record currency depreciation dogged Raisi’s presidency, while his government failed to clinch a deal with Washington to revive the nuclear deal and lift sanctions.

He also faced criticism for the government’s handling of the street protests sparked by Amini’s death.

More recently, spillover from the Gaza war saw tensions with Israel skyrocket and climax in mid-April when Iran carried out its first-ever direct attack against Israel.

Iranian forces and allied groups unleashed hundreds of drones and missiles, most of which were intercepted by Israel and its partners.

Amid all the turmoil, Iran’s leaders have urged a calm election process.

On Monday, the new parliament started its first session with a message from Khamenei calling on the lawmakers to keep away from “useless media contests and harmful political controversies”.

Cars drive past a billboard bearing a portrait of Iran’s late president Ebrahim Raisi, centre, his Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, second from left, and other members of his entrourage in central Tehran on May 21, 2024, as mourners in the northestern city of Tabriz attended a funeral procession for the President and seven others who were killed with him in a helicopter accident two days ago.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Being Iran’s President is not easy. The highest elected office in the country is not the most powerful one. The President is answerable to the Supreme Leader, who is appointed by a body of senior clerics. The President’s main responsibility is to run the day-to-day affairs of the country, especially its crisis-ridden, sanctions-hit economy. The President also has to run a delicate foreign policy in a hostile region where its only national state ally is Syria, which itself has been battered by years of civil war. The President has to do a lot of balancing acts at home as well, keeping the link between popular legitimacy and clerical rule alive, while also working with the security apparatus, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to protect Tehran’s key geopolitical interests.

Also read: A brief look at the life of Ebrahim Raisi

Ebrahim Raisi, the 63-year-old hardline cleric who became Iran’s eighth President in August 2021, was doing just that, until May 19, 2024, when he was killed in a helicopter crash. In many ways, Iran’s clerical establishment found a near-perfect leader in Raisi. He was an ideologically committed loyal servant of Iran’s theocratic system. A cleric and a close confidant of the Supreme Leader, Raisi was seen as a potential successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. And his death comes as a massive shock for the Islamic Republic.

Immediate priority

Iran faces three broad challenges in the wake of Raisi’s death. Tehran’s immediate priority is to put in place an orderly transition so that the “nation would not be disrupted at all”, as Mr. Khamenei has said. According to the Constitution, if the President is incapacitated, the First Vice-President would assume interim duties and fresh elections should be held in 50 days. Mr. Khamenei has already approved First Vice-President Mohammad Mokhber as acting head of the executive branch of the state. Now, it’s the responsibility of Mr. Mokhber, parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei to hold elections within the timeframe. Authorities have already announced that elections would be held on June 28.

When Raisi became President, all branches of Iran’s government — executive, judiciary and legislature — came under the control of conservatives. In the parliamentary elections held earlier this year, conservatives retained their dominance. But what worries the establishment is the dwindling turnout. For years, Iran’s clerical leadership would use high voter turnout as a marker of legitimacy for the country’s system. If the voter turnout was 85% in the 2009 presidential elections, it fell to 48% in 2021 when Raisi was elected. When the country is preparing to hold a snap election, the establishment would like to see not just the election of another conservative as President but also a high turnout.

Larger transition

Secondly, Raisi’s abrupt death did disrupt Iran’s bigger transition plans as well. Mr. Khamenei, the most powerful man in Iran, is 85 years old and ailing. He became the Supreme Leader in 1989 when Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic died. Many Iran watchers saw Raisi as an ideal candidate to succeed Mr. Khamenei. Raisi was relatively young, ideologically committed, had the blessings of the establishment and successfully negotiated between the different branches of the state and made his standing more powerful ever since his election. But now, Iran has to start from scratch to find Mr. Khamenei’s successor. Different names are being added to the list, including Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the Supreme Leader, and Alireza Arafi, an influential white-turbaned cleric who heads Friday prayers at the Qom Shia seminary.

Regional dynamics

Lastly, Raisi’s death comes at a time when regional tensions are at an all-time high. After the Israel-Hamas war began on October 7, 2023, regional focus shifted to Iran’s support of non-state actors in West Asia, including Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis. Last month, Iran launched an unprecedented drone and missile attack on Israel, after its consulate in Damascus was struck and officers killed. Hezbollah, which is directly backed by Iran, is fighting a slow-burning war with Israel on its northern border. Houthis, the Yemeni militia backed by Iran, is carrying out attacks targeting vessels in the Red Sea, “in solidarity with Palestinians”.

In recent months, Iran has flexed its muscles both through its proxies and directly in the region. A change in presidency is unlikely to alter Iran’s overall security doctrine, which has been laid out by the clerical and military establishment. But for the smooth implementation of this multi-layered security strategy, which involves both state and non-state actors, in a hostile region, Iran needs a cohesive national leadership. The challenge before the Ayatollahs is to stay the political course irrespective of the disruptions.

A handout picture provided by Iran’s Presidency on December 23, 2023 shows Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (C), Foreign Minister Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (L) and Head of Iran’s Judiciary Gholam hossein Mohseni-Ejei attending the Tehran International Conference on Palestine in Iran’s capital.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Hamas on Monday expressed its condolences for Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash, mourning in a statement an “honourable supporter” of the Tehran-backed Palestinian militant group.

Hamas said it appreciated Mr. Raisi’s “support for the Palestinian resistance, and tireless efforts in solidarity” with Palestinians since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza following the group’s October 7 attack.

The militant group said it appreciated Mr. Raisi and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who was also killed in the Sunday crash, for their “intense political and diplomatic efforts to stop the Zionist (Israeli) aggression against our Palestinian people”.

Iran, which supports Hamas financially and militarily, has hailed the militant group’s October 7 attack on Israel as a “success” but denied any involvement.

On April 13, Iran launched more than 300 missiles and drones in Tehran’s first-ever direct attack on Israeli territory.

That attack was itself in retaliation for an air strike — widely blamed on Israel — that levelled the Iranian consulate in Damascus and killed seven Revolutionary Guards on April 1.

Since the start of the Gaza war, violence has surged across the region often involving Iran-backed Hamas allies. Israel has been engaged in near-daily clashes along its northern border with the powerful Tehran-backed Lebanese movement Hezbollah.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi speaks during a commemoration for the late Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a U.S drone attack in 2020 in Iraq, at the Imam Khomeini grand mosque, Jan. 3, 2024, in Tehran, Iran. Raisi, the country’s Foreign Minister and others have been found dead at the site of a helicopter crash after an hourslong search through a foggy, mountainous region of the country’s northwest, state media reported Monday, May 20, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash, an Iranian official and Mehr news agency reported on Monday. Below is a brief outline of what Iran’s constitution says happens when a President is incapacitated or dies in office:

Also Read: Iran helicopter crash LIVE Updates

• If a President dies in office, article 131 of the Islamic Republic’s constitution says that the first Vice President — who is Mohammad Mokhber — takes over, with the confirmation of the supreme leader, who has the final say in all matters of State in Iran.
• A council consisting of the first Vice President, the Speaker of Parliament and the Head of the Judiciary must arrange an election for a new President within a maximum period of 50 days.

Mr. Raisi was elected President in 2021 and, under the usual timetable, a presidential election had been due to take place in 2025. Under constitutional rules, it can now be expected to take place by early July.

Who is Mohammad Mokhber?

Here are some key facts about Mohammad Mokhber, 68, Iran’s first Vice President who became interim President on the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash.

• Born on Sept. 1, 1955, Mr. Mokhber, like Mr. Raisi, is seen as close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has the last say in all matters of state. Mr. Mokhber became first Vice President in 2021 when Mr. Raisi was elected President.
• Mr. Mokhber was part of a team of Iranian officials who visited Moscow in October and agreed to supply surface-to-surface missiles and more drones to Russia’s military, sources told Reuters at the time. The team also included two senior officials from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and an official from the Supreme National Security Council.
• Mr. Mokhber had previously been head of Setad, an investment fund linked to the Supreme Leader.
• In 2010, the European Union included Mr. Mokhber on a list of individuals and entities it was sanctioning for alleged involvement in “nuclear or ballistic missile activities”. Two years later, it removed him from the list.
• In 2013, the U.S. Treasury Department added Setad and 37 companies it oversaw to a list of sanctioned entities.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died after his helicopter crashed in the mountains yesterday. Raisi was in line to be Iran’s next supreme leader, along with a clampdown on morality questions.

Raisi’s hardline position had been all pervasive in domestic politics while he governed through a severe economic crisis and a historic escalation of the country’s conflict with Israel.

Raisi took over as president in 2021, succeeding the moderate Hassan Rouhani, for a term marked by crisis and conflict.

Return Of Morality Police

Raisi was personally involved in two of the darkest periods of Iranian repression.

A year after his election, the mid-ranking cleric ordered that authorities tighten the enforcement of Iran’s “hijab and chastity law” restricting women’s attire and behaviour.

Iran saw a wave of protests triggered by the death in custody of Iranian-Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini in September 2022 after her arrest for allegedly flouting dress rules for women.

The nationwide protests presented one of the gravest challenges to Iran’s clerical rulers since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Hundreds were killed, according to rights groups, including dozens of security personnel who were part of a fierce crackdown on the demonstrators as the president insisted “acts of chaos are unacceptable.”

Why Raisi Was Labelled ‘The Butcher Of Tehran’

For Iran’s exiled opposition and human rights groups, Raise’s name evoked mass executions of Marxists and other leftists in 1988, when he was deputy prosecutor of the Revolutionary Court in Tehran.

Inquisitions known as “death committees” were set up across Iran, comprising religious judges, prosecutors and intelligence ministry officials who decided the fate of thousands of detainees in arbitrary trials that lasted just a few minutes, according to a report by Amnesty International.

While the number of people killed across Iran was never confirmed, Amnesty said minimum estimates put it at 5,000.

The 1988 mass execution earned him the dubious soubriquet of ‘The Butcher of Tehran’.

Iran-Israel Tensions

The Gaza war sent regional tensions soaring again and a series of tit-for-tat escalations led to Tehran launching hundreds of missiles and rockets directly at Israel in April this year.

Raisi recently emphasised Iran’s support for Palestinians, a centrepiece of its foreign policy since the 1979 Islamic revolution.

“We believe that Palestine is the first issue of the Muslim world, and we are convinced that the people of Iran and Azerbaijan always support the people of Palestine and Gaza and hate the Zionist regime,” said Raisi.

A Conservative Hardliner

Ebrahim Raisi, 63, rose through Iran’s theocracy from hardline prosecutor to uncompromising president, overseeing a crackdown on protests at home and pushing hard in nuclear talks with world powers.

Raisi’s career started in the years after the 1979 Islamic revolution. He was close to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Like Khamenei, Raisi often spoke up defiantly as Iran, the biggest Shiite Muslim power, was locked in a tense standoff with its declared arch foes the United States and Israel. Raisi has been on Washington’s sanctions blacklist for complicity in “serious human rights violations”.

Raisi took a tough stance in the nuclear negotiations, seeing a chance to win broad relief from US sanctions in return for only modest curbs on Iran’s increasingly advanced technology.

In 2018, then-US President Donald Trump had reneged on the deal Tehran had made with the six powers and restored harsh US sanctions on Iran, prompting Tehran to progressively violate the agreement’s nuclear limits.

Indirect talks between Tehran and US President Joe Biden’s administration to revive the deal have stalled.