election results 2024 – Artifex.News https://artifexnews.net Stay Connected. Stay Informed. Sat, 13 Jul 2024 11:05:32 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.1 https://artifexnews.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/cropped-Artifex-Round-32x32.png election results 2024 – Artifex.News https://artifexnews.net 32 32 INDIA Bloc Wins 10 Seats, BJP 2 In Key Polls Across 7 States https://artifexnews.net/india-bloc-wins-10-seats-bjp-2-in-key-polls-across-7-states-6097526rand29/ Sat, 13 Jul 2024 11:05:32 +0000 https://artifexnews.net/india-bloc-wins-10-seats-bjp-2-in-key-polls-across-7-states-6097526rand29/ Read More “INDIA Bloc Wins 10 Seats, BJP 2 In Key Polls Across 7 States” »

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By-Election Results 2024: The Congress won two of the three seats in Himachal.

New Delhi:

The Opposition INDIA bloc won 10 of the 13 seats that went to polls across seven states, backing up their strong show in the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP, which returned for a record third term at the Centre last month, managed to claim only two seats.

In Punjab, AAP’s Mohinder Bhagat scored a decisive victory in the Jalandhar West constituency, with a margin exceeding 23,000 votes. Meanwhile, in West Bengal, the TMC showcased its dominance by capturing all four seats contested.

Himachal Pradesh witnessed a notable debut as Kamlesh Thakur, wife of Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu, secured victory in the Dehra constituency. The Congress further strengthened its position by claiming the Nalagarh seat, while the BJP managed to secure a win in Hamirpur.

Chief Minister Sukhu, after the win said that people of Himachal Pradesh have given a befitting reply to those hatching “conspiracies to topple the government”.

“People of Himachal gave us 40 seats in 2022. People have given a befitting reply to the kind of poaching that happened in state politics in the past,” Mr Sukhu said.

“This also gave the message that the people of the state are aware and awake and that such poaching will not work. Three independent MLAs had no reason to resign. They could have simply allied with the BJP, but even they learned their lesson,” he added.

In Tamil Nadu, the DMK’s Anniyur Siva won the Vikravandi assembly seat by a significant margin of nearly 60,000 votes. The Congress won both seats in Uttarakhand, while the BJP’s Kamslesh Pratap Shahi won the Amarwar seat in Madhya Pradesh.

Independent candidate Shankar Singh won the Rupauli assembly bypoll in Bihar’s Purnea, defeating JDU’s Kaladhar Prasad Mandal by a margin of 8,246 votes.

These bypolls were the first since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, which saw the BJP winning 240 seats – 32 short of the majority. The NDA, however, managed to cross the halfway mark of 272 with a total tally of 293 seats. The Congress-led INDIA bloc clinched 232 seats.



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Himachal Chief Minister Conspiracy Failed Jibe After Wife Bypoll Win https://artifexnews.net/himachal-bypoll-results-kamlesh-thakur-bjp-vs-congress-himachal-chief-minister-conspiracy-failed-jibe-after-wife-bypoll-win-6096560rand29/ Sat, 13 Jul 2024 08:16:46 +0000 https://artifexnews.net/himachal-bypoll-results-kamlesh-thakur-bjp-vs-congress-himachal-chief-minister-conspiracy-failed-jibe-after-wife-bypoll-win-6096560rand29/ Read More “Himachal Chief Minister Conspiracy Failed Jibe After Wife Bypoll Win” »

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Himachal Bypoll Results: Kamlesh Thakur won by a margin of 9,399 votes.

Dehra:

Himachal Pradesh Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu’s wife, Kamlesh Thakur, won the key bypoll for the Dehra assembly seat. Making her electoral debut, Ms Thakur won by a margin of 9,399 votes over her nearest rival, BJP’s Hoshiyar Singh.

The bypoll, held on Saturday, witnessed a high turnout with 65.42% of the electorate exercising their franchise. Ms Thakur garnered 32,737 votes, while Mr Singh managed 23,338 votes.

The polling was conducted to fill vacancies created by the resignation of incumbent members, all Independents, who are now in the fray as BJP nominees.

The Dehra Assembly constituency, established after the 2012 delimitation exercise, had been a bastion of the BJP. Former minister Ravi Inder Singh and later Hoshiyar Singh, as an Independent, had secured victories in previous elections. However, the latest results signify a shifting political landscape in the Kangra district.

Chief Minister Sukhu’s vigorous campaign in Dehra played a key role in securing Ms Thakur’s debut victory.

Chief Minister Sukhu expressed his joy over the outcome, highlighting the Congress’ resurgence following a setback in the state during the Lok Sabha polls. “Just a month ago, BJP candidates claimed three Lok Sabha seats with a significant margin. Now, our confidence is bolstered with assured victories in two seats and a tough contest in Hamirpur,” he remarked, attributing the win to the government’s dedicated public service over the past 16 months.

He also said that the conspiracy to topple the government had failed.

Earlier this year, the Congress government in Himachal faced a crisis after it lost the lone Rajya Sabha seat despite having the numbers due to cross-voting by some of its MLAs. The six MLAs who voted for the BJP were disqualified by the Speaker.

The cross-voting paved the way for the victory of BJP’s Harsh Mahajan in the Rajya Sabha election after a tie, and then a draw of lots sealed the fate of Congress pick and senior lawyer Abhishek Singhvi.



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Sensex plunges 5.7% as BJP fails to win majority on its own https://artifexnews.net/article68251438-ece/ Tue, 04 Jun 2024 15:19:13 +0000 https://artifexnews.net/article68251438-ece/ Read More “Sensex plunges 5.7% as BJP fails to win majority on its own” »

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Big fall: A man checks stock market news on the big screen as
Sensex opened in the red when counting began on Tuesday.
| Photo Credit: ANI

India’s S&P BSE Sensex suffered its sharpest fall since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, as the surprise outcome of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) being poised to fail to win a majority on its own in the just concluded Lok Sabha elections triggered frenzied selling that sent the key equity benchmark tumbling more than 8% intraday on Tuesday.

The Sensex nosedived 4,390 points, or 5.74%, from Monday’s record high to close at 72,079 in the process wiping out the gains of the last four months. All but three of the 30-Sensex stocks ended in the red, with losses led by state-owned NTPC, which slumped 15.5%. State Bank (14.4%), L&T (12.7%), Power Grid (12.4%), Tata Steel (8.87%), IndusInd Bank (9%) and Reliance (7.5%) were among the other heavy losers.

The fall on the NSE Nifty was led by Adani Group and PSU stocks. The Nifty-50 index plunged 1,379.40 points, or 5.93%, to 21,884.50. Adani Ports lost 21.4%, Adani Enterprises (19.7%), ONGC (16.2%), NTPC (14.5%) and Coal India (13.5%).

“Stock markets have been expecting a complete majority for the BJP and a thumping victory for the NDA,” said Siddarth Bhamre, Head Research at Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. “Exit polls too cemented the expectations. Markets had factored in the best possible outcome and valuations are rich,” he added.

“The market is aware of the challenges associated with a coalition government. Now, with election results not being one-sided, we are witnessing profit booking. We believe this profit booking may continue for some more time,” he added.

“The election results are showing a less than halfway mark for the current BJP government, pointing towards a coalition government,” said Yashovardhan Khemka, senior manager, Research and Analytics, Abans Holdings. “This will lead to dependence on allies in making policy decisions and sharing certain cabinet seats, which will lead to policy paralysis and uncertainty in the government’s functioning,” he added.

“The markets are pricing the risks associated with this scenario and potential impact of the shift towards socialistic policies by the government, this is leading to sell-off in the market,” he observed.

Stating that Tuesday’s market move caught most of the participants on the wrong foot, especially the way the poll outcome had completely undermined the exit polls numbers, Sameet Chavan, Head Research, Technical and Derivatives – Angel One said: “in hindsight, we may call it a much-needed correction as it was overdue; but practically, exit polls have deceived us and raised the bar for the actual outcome.” 

“Since the expectations were built higher in the last six odd months, the market reacted dejectedly,” he added. 

However, some analysts believe the reform agenda would continue irrespective of the outcome. 

Vinit Sambre, Head – Equities, DSP Mutual Fund said, “We would like to believe that the development agenda that spurred the performance of equity is likely to persist, irrespective of the party in power. Some of the reforms implemented are integral to the long-term growth and efficiency of these companies / country and are unlikely to be undone easily.” 



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Election Results 2024 financial markets were given artificial booster dose by exit polls https://artifexnews.net/article68250234-ece/ Tue, 04 Jun 2024 10:10:07 +0000 https://artifexnews.net/article68250234-ece/ Read More “Election Results 2024 financial markets were given artificial booster dose by exit polls” »

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Congress leader Jairam Ramesh
| Photo Credit: PTI

As financial markets went for a tumble on June 4 after the trends of the Lok Sabha poll results showed that the BJP was not getting a majority on its own, the Congress said the markets were given an artificial booster dose by the exit polls and have now turned turbulent.

The Congress also recalled the words of former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in 2004 to say that the party is committed to an orderly and healthy development of the financial markets that reflect the fundamentals of the economy.

For constituency-wise real-time updates, visit our Election Results page

Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh said the party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government provided a fear-free and intimidation-free 10-year period (2004-14) for the private sector that helped the country achieve its highest Gross domestic product(GDP) growth.

“Financial markets that were given an artificial booster dose by the exit polls are turbulent today. In this context, it is wise to recall the words of Dr. Manmohan Singh on May 17th 2004, the last occasion on which the markets were faced with prospect of such regime change,” Mr. Ramesh said in a post on X.

Recalling Mr. Singh’s words, he said, “There is absolutely no need for panic in the market. Very soon the alliance will unveil its Current Market Price[CMP]. The CMP will demonstrate the commitment of the United Progressive Alliance to fiscal discipline, realistic growth-oriented tax policies, control of unproductive and wasteful public expenditure and increased emphasis on agricultural growth, education, health, food security and social security in the context of a fast-growing economy that is integrating with the world as well.” “The Congress is committed to the orderly and healthy development of the financial markets that reflect the fundamentals of the economy. Our tax policies and foreign direct investment regime will be pro-growth and will create an environment favourable for both Indian and foreign enterprises,” Mr. Ramesh said, quoting Mr. Singh’s words.

Election Results 2024: NDA leading in 12 seats with less than 1% vote margin, in 16 seats with 1-2.5%

He added that what followed in 2004 was a “fear-free and intimidation-free decade for the private sector — a decade of the highest GDP growth India has ever seen, along with the highest private investment as a share of GDP”.

Early trends of the Lok Sabha poll results on June 4 threw up disappointing results for the BJP-led NDA, which appears to be losing big in its strongholds of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan, although it is expected to form the government with about 290 seats.



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Election result impact on market: How do markets look at election results? https://artifexnews.net/article68242108-ece/ Sun, 02 Jun 2024 12:08:05 +0000 https://artifexnews.net/article68242108-ece/ Read More “Election result impact on market: How do markets look at election results?” »

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Markets turn particularly volatile during and in the run-up to the election season. Speculations, psephologists’ analyses, exit polls and rhetoric, among other things— all bear the potential to shroud equity markets in political uncertainty. Investors have ideally preferred a stable government which would focus on spurring economic activity, industrialisation, managing the fiscal deficit, taxation policies and taming inflation, among other things. It is largely based on these assessment metrics and the prevailing political currents, in combination and/or in isolation, that investors chalk their strategies. They are always on the lookout for a government that would be able to influence the economy and industry towards betterment.


Also Read: Exit poll 2024 highlights

Let us look at some of the currents that have determined the behaviour of markets in an election landscape.  

Markets and political uncertainty: a case study from the 80s

In 1984, investors did not receive former Prime Rajiv Gandhi’s accession to the top administrative post in the country with great enthusiasm. His initial days occupying the country’s top administrative office contributed to greater volatility and economic fluctuations in November 1984. Bourses were still recovering from the shock that arrived with the assassination of his mother and late Prime Minister Indira Gandhi on October 31, 1984. The orgy of violence that followed was still subsiding in Northern India. Further, Mr. Gandhi was yet to prove his mettle in the general elections, which were expected to take place a year later. Important to note here, stability is also imperative for investors to determine the continuation of policies undertaken by the incumbent regime. It helps them plan suitably and make favourability assessments.  

Trading in Dalal Street and other centres had resumed on November 5 on a rather subdued note. Amidst the uncertainty, investors, particularly bull investors, were unwilling to make fresh commitments. Trends were similar in Madras and Calcutta too. As reported by The Hindu back then, the volume of business was restricted, and a definite trend – avoiding the uncertainty – was expected to emerge only after a fortnight. It was further reported, “The capital market may not, of course, remain buoyant for several weeks as individual investors may not be keen to extend enthusiastic support to even worthwhile new issues in the absence of normal trading in the stock markets.”

Notwithstanding a rather sombre setting, expectations still existed about a revival. News reports suggested that provided there were no major upsets in the political situation, there could be a revival in economic activity after some uncertainties were out of the way. This was based on the inherent strength of the economy and the expectations of growth in the national income by 4.5% in 1984-85. This in turn was based on anticipation about a higher level of agricultural and industrial production.  

The 90s, economic health and investor confidence

Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated in May 1991.  

Succeeding the Congress stalwart was P.V. Narasimha Rao. His appointment as the Prime Minister in June 1991 greatly enthused investors. The Hindu had reported back then that the succession gave rise to a feeling in industry and stock markets that the incoming Prime Minister would adopt measures for reducing pressure on India’s balance of payments position. Further, there was confidence that he would ease the curbs on credit to avoid a “pronounced deceleration” of economic activity. The incoming Prime Minister had described elaborate steps to tackle economic issues as his highest priority. The major challenges awaiting the Rao government included taming inflation, and spurring incentives for saving and fresh investments.  

The results of the election sent stock markets— Dalal Street, Lyons Range, Delhi and Madras— buzzing again. The BSE Sensex on June 21 gained 25 points, or about 1.8%, to scale 1,361.72 from its previous close of 1,336.75. This was the highest in recent weeks back then, especially after the times of turbulence which followed Mr Gandhi’s assassination.  

P.V. Narasimha Rao’s tenure also witnessed the introduction of the liberalisation, privatisation and globalisation regime, with then Finance Minister Manmohan Singh spearheading the efforts. In his historical speech on July 24th, 1991, the finance minister indicated direct foreign investment would provide access to capital, technology and markets. “Cost, efficiency and quality willbegin to receive the attention they deserve,” he stated.

Markets, however, were not as enthused as may have been expected. The BSE index fluctuated in wide limits in the post-budget session – rising to 1,481.95 from 1,459.66 at the close of the pre-budget session. This was before it declined to 1,465.94. It eventually closed at its highest that year at 1,485.76, about 4.65% or 66.45 points higher. While the reforms were viewed favourably by a majority, apprehensions existed about the government being able to supply the required foreign exchange resources for importing plant and machinery. The other set of concerns were about whether the government would explore easing of curbs on the use of bank funds for reviving economic activity.  

Congress in 2004 and 2009: Same party but two different reactions  

As previously described, markets are particularly enthusiastic when a favourably-viewed party gets the most important seat in Delhi’s Rasina Hills. However, the Congress’ succession to power in 2004 and 2009 not only underlined how important this favourability was for markets, but also showed how currents – especially a lesser accompanying current, could reverse as well as expand a prevailing trend. On May 15, a week before the former Finance Minister Manmohan Singh would be sworn in as the next Prime Minister, the benchmark Sensex experienced its biggest-ever crash. It shed about 330 points amidst apprehension that a new coalition government, especially with Left partners to support, would move away from the disinvestment prerogative (especially in oil major PSUs). It closed about 3.26% lower at 5,123.23. Nifty 50 also lost 135.10 points to close at 1,582.40 that day.

What is also noteworthy is markets had expected the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to return to power. The disinvestment apprehension further lowered investor sentiment. All of this was set against a backdrop of rising global oil prices and the U.S. undergoing a state of economic recovery – all leading to a reverse flow of capital out of India.    

Things, however, were different when the UPA returned in 2009. Giving a thumbs-up to the incoming UPA-II, the Sensex on May 18 amassed a then record 2,110.79 points, or 1.75% greater than its previous close, three days before then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh took oath for the second time. The Hindu reported that Dalal Street lost fear for the first time since the global recession that started in August 2008 with the fall of the U.S.-based investment banker Lehman Brothers. In fact, markets hit the upper circuit twice that day. This was in stark contrast to how events unfolded nearly five years back (on May 17, 2004) when circuit breakers had to be placed because of volatile trading. The earlier event was also the first time when rules governing the implementation of circuit breakers were utilised since their introduction.    

Back then, market observers felt that the gain was an affirmation from investors for an effective and smooth continuation of the current policies of the government. A. Balasubramaniam, CIO at Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund, told The Hindu back then, “With proactive monetary and fiscal policies combined with stable government, one can only expect that the economy will be back on track much faster than what one would have thought.”  

All in all, investors welcomed the political and (potential) economic stability.    

The Modi Wave and the boost in investor sentiment   

The incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rise to the top administrative job was good news for investors. Mr. Modi held a reputation of being pro-industry. This was primarily derived from having welcomed automobile players such as Ford India and Tata Motors (for the budget hatchback Nano) to set up their plants in Gujarat during his reign as the Chief Minister of the State. Financial Times had reported in April 2014 that the then visible pre-election rally was on the back of foreign investors gambling that a new business-friendly government would hack through the bureaucratic red tape which had hitherto hindered growth. Other than betting on higher economic growth, foreign investors also poured in money expecting an increase in infrastructure investment.  

As the results became clear on May 16, markets scaled record highs, especially after there was clarity that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was attaining a majority on its own. This was good news for investors because this granted certainty about potential policies that the incoming government would undertake. Continuing the positive run since the exit polls affirmed the change in regime, on May 16, the BSE Sensex climbed 1,470.03 points to an all-time high of 25,375.63. Registering a sixth consecutive day of gain, it closed 0.5% higher at 24,121.74. The NSE’s 50-share Nifty was trading up by 288.45 points, or 4.05% higher, at 7,411.60. This was after it had breached the 7,500-mark intraday to touch 7,563.50. 

The same course was repeated in 2019; investors were enthused about BJP having bettered its seat count from 2014. The continuing government’s pro-business stance, emphasis on self-sustainability, focus on infrastructure development and providing ease of doing business were viewed as positives by investors. Record highs were scaled again (on May 23) with the BSE seeping past the 40,000-mark and Nifty50 getting past 12,000-mark intraday. Eventually, S&P BSE Sensex settled at 38,811 after having attained a record high of 40,125, down 299 points or 0.77%. Nifty50 concluded the day at 11,657, down 81 points or 0.69%.    

The story from here  

On May 29, 2024, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined about 1%. This marked an ongoing fall for the fifth consecutive day as investors turned cautious ahead of the Lok Sabha results. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 667.55 points or 0.89% to settle at 74,502.90. The NSE Nifty dropped 183.45 points or 0.80% to 22,704.70. The volatility was initially experienced a fortnight back after speculations about a drop in seats for the BJP. Responding to the same, Home Minister Amit Shah stated that market would shoot up and attain newer records on June 4 – the results day.    

Morgan Stanley Research has noted that government continuity could provide a backdrop for growth. The researchers added, “The market may have priced in election results already, but we see a number of reasons, such as growing domestic investment in equities, improving social equity and a fast-evolving tech sector, that support earnings cycle growth and a corresponding lift to share prices.” It held that these and other changes that could boost earnings 20% annually for the next five years “are not baked into the share prices.” 



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