New Delhi:

During the entire election season, the BJP stood by its target of 400 Lok Sabha seats for the NDA and its slogan of ‘ab ki baar 400 paar’ in the face of relentless mocking by the opposition. If three exit polls are to be believed, the ruling party is going to have the last laugh.  

While two of the polls have given ranges with figures of just over 400 on the upper end, News 24-Today’s Chanakya has predicted 400 as the NDA’s tally. The only rider this number comes with is that the margin of error is 15 seats. The figure then becomes 385 on the lower end and an astounding 415 on the upper side.

India TV-CNX has also given similar estimates and a range of 371-401, putting the NDA just over the mammoth target if it touches the upper limit of the range. India Today-Axis My India has predicted 361-401. 

Health Warning: Exit polls often get it wrong. 

The NDA’s tally was 352 in 2019 and the BJP had won 303 seats on its own. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will make history if he gets a third straight term and the party and the alliance’s leaders and election machinery will have shown their prowess if the NDA even gets the lowest end of these figures.

A tally of 361, the minimum figure predicted by India Today-Axis My India, will mean that the alliance has bettered its performance in each successive election, which would be a huge feat on its own and indicate that anti-incumbency is not much of a factor. It will also be a testament to PM Narendra Modi’s popularity.

The opposition INDIA Alliance, which said on Saturday that it will win 295 constituencies, has been given 107 (plus-minus 11) by Today’s Chanakya, 109-139 by CNX and 131-166 by Axis My India. 

With its 80 Lok Sabha seats the most important state in every election is Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP had won 62 seats in 2019, when the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party were in an alliance. The Samajwadi Party is now allied with the Congress and all three polls have the BJP bettering its tally in the state. 

News 24-Today’s Chanakya’s prediction is 68 (plus-minus 7), India Today-Axis My India’s estimate is 67-72 and India TV-CNX has given the party 70-74. 

All three polls show the NDA doing better than it did in the South in 2019. Another big headline from the three exit polls is also that the BJP will get more seats that the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, with Axis My India going as far as giving 26-31 of the state’s 42 seats to the ruling party at the Centre.

New Delhi:

A historic third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi — that’s what exit polls are predicting as the seventh and the last phase of Lok Sabha election concluded this evening. None, though, have yet put the NDA across its dream score of 400 of 543 Lok Sabha seats. While the numbers vary, five exit polls are predicting that the INDIA bloc will be left far behind.

Exit Polls do not always get it right.

An aggregate of five exit polls indicates that the NDA will get 365 seats, the INDIA bloc will get 142 seats.

The maximum number of seats predicted for the NDA was 362-392, in the exit poll by Jan ki Baat. It predicts the Opposition bloc will get 141-161 seats.

It is followed by India News-D Dynamics, which is predicting that the NDA will get 371 seats and INDIA 125 seats.

The lowest score for the NDA comes from Republic TV-P MARQ – 359, and a corresponding higher score for the INDIA bloc, 154.

The voting for the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 ends on June 1 with the final and seventh phase polling. The general elections began on April 19, followed by five other phases on April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, and May 26. 

What are exit polls?

Exit polls try to predict election outcomes by interviewing voters right after they have cast their votes.

In India, such polls are prohibited during the voting process by the Election Commission. However, exit polls can be made public 30 minutes after the entire voting process ends.

This is to make sure that the polls don’t influence people while they are still voting, but also still allows for immediate analysis and discussion once the process is complete.

Warning: Exit polls do not always get it right. They have been way off the mark in the past. 

How are exit polls calculated? 

Exit polls are calculated using a combination of sampling methods and statistical analysis by various agencies. These include:

Sampling: Pollsters pick a bunch of voters from different areas to represent the whole population. They want to make sure they talk to people across demography.

Questioning: Selected voters are asked who they voted for and other basic questions, like their age and where they live.

Data Collection: The answers are collected and recorded. 

Weightage: The data is adjusted to make sure it is a fair representation. For example, if the pollsters didn’t talk to enough young people, they might give their answers more weight to balance things out.

Analysis: Experts look at all this data and analyse it to make predictions about the election results based on what the voters said.

Margin of Error: The exit polls also figure out how certain or uncertain their predictions are. 

Finally, these predictions are shared with the public. 

When are the 2024 exit polls due?

For the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, exit polls will be shown live on June 1 after the final voting phase ends. Voting for this phase will end at 6 pm on Saturday and the exit polls will start airing from 6:30 pm onwards. Tune in to NDTV for live updates on exit polls after 6:30 pm.

The votes will be counted on June 4.