At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.92, then gained ground to touch 83.88, registering a rise of 9 paise from its previous close. File
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The rupee appreciated 9 paise to 83.88 against the U.S. dollar in morning trade on Thursday (August 29, 2024), supported by the weakness of the American currency in the overseas market and a positive trend in domestic equities.

Forex traders said the market is awaiting cues from the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data, as this data point is crucial as it could sway the Federal Reserve’s decision on whether to implement a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut at its September meeting.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.92, then gained ground to touch 83.88, registering a rise of 9 paise from its previous close.

On Wednesday (August 28, 2024), the rupee depreciated 4 paise to close at 83.97 against the American currency.

“The rupee is in the midst of a tug-of-war between positive and negative factors. With the Reserve Bank firmly in control, the rupee is expected to trade within a narrow range in the near term, with the upside likely capped around 83.80 and strong support near 84.05,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

“Most Asian currencies were range-bound as the market awaited the U.S. GDP and PCE data, with IDR at 15412, KRW at 1335 and CNH at 7.1278,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.16% to 100.92 points.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, gained 0.06% to $78.70 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 211.91 points, or 0.26%, to 81,997.47 points, while the Nifty was up 52.85 points, or 0.21%, to 25,105.20 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Wednesday (August 28, 2024), as they offloaded shares worth ₹1,347.53 crore, according to exchange data.

On July 24, the Rupee depreciated two paise to hit its all-time closing low of 83.71 against the U.S. dollar. File
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The Rupee fell one paisa to close at an all-time low of 83.72 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on July 25, dragged down by demand for the American currency in the overseas market and significant foreign fund outflows.

Forex traders said the fall in domestic unit came on the heels of a significant downturn in the Indian equity markets, sparked by the government’s decision to hike the tax rate on capital gains.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.72 and touched an intra-day high of 83.66 and a low of 83.72 against the dollar during the session.

It finally settled at an all-time low level of 83.72 (provisional) against the American currency, down one paisa from its previous close. On July 24, the Rupee depreciated two paise to hit its all-time closing low of 83.71 against the U.S. dollar.

“The local unit appreciated slightly during the intra-day trade on supposed intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and overall weakness in crude oil prices,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“We expect the Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on weak global markets and fresh FII outflows. However, weak U.S. dollar and declining crude oil prices may support the Rupee at lower levels. intervention by the Reserve Bank may also support the Rupee,” Mr. Choudhary added.

The government’s decision to hike the tax rate on capital gains dampened market sentiment, exerting immense pressure on the Rupee and the equity market.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 109.08 points or 0.14% to settle at 80,039.80 points and Nifty dropped 7.40 points or 0.03% to 24,406.10 points.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 104.17, lower by 0.21%. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 1.79% to $81.25 per barrel.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Wednesday as they offloaded shares worth ₹5,130.90 crore, according to exchange data.

On July 12, the Rupee settled at 83.51 against the U.S. dollar.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

Rupee depreciated 11 paise and settled for the day at an all-time low of 83.62 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on July 15, weighed down by the overall strength of the American currency in the overseas market.

Forex traders said a positive trend in domestic equities, wherein benchmark indices touched all-time high levels and significant foreign fund inflows supported the Rupee at lower levels.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.53, but lost ground and finally settled at an all-time low of 83.62 (provisional) against the dollar, 11 paise lower than its previous close. On July 12, the Rupee settled at 83.51 against the U.S. dollar.

Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said the Rupee declined on positive U.S. dollar and rising domestic inflation.

“U.S. dollar rose on safe haven demand amid political violence in the U.S.,” he said, adding that rising odds of a rate cut by Fed in September may limit a sharp upside in the greenback.

“Traders may take cues from Empire State manufacturing index data from the U.S.. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.30 to ₹83.80,” Mr. Choudhary said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading marginally lower by 0.02% at 104.07. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.09% higher at $85.11 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the benchmark indices scaled all-time high levels. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended the day 145.52 points, or 0.18%, higher at an all-time high of 80,664.86 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 84.55 points, or 0.35%, higher at a record 24,586.70 points.

According to the official data released on July 15, wholesale inflation in the country rose for the fourth consecutive month in June at 3.36% on account of rise in prices of food articles, especially vegetables and manufactured items.

The government data released on Friday showed retail inflation increased to a four-month high of 5.08% in June as food items, including vegetables became dearer.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday, as they purchased shares worth ₹4,021.60 crore, according to exchange data.

On Tuesday, the Rupee appreciated four paise and settled at 83.43 against the greenback.

The Rupee depreciated 17 paise against the U.S. dollar and settled at 83.60 (provisional) on June 26, weighed down by the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and elevated crude oil prices.

“However, a firm trend in domestic equities, wherein benchmark indices scaled new peaks, supported the local unit and restricted the downslide,” forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.45 and hit the intraday high of 83.43 and a low of 83.61 against the greenback during the session. It finally settled at 83.60 (provisional) against the dollar, 17 paise lower than its previous close. On Tuesday, the Rupee appreciated four paise and settled at 83.43 against the greenback.

“We expect the Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on dollar demand ahead from oil importers as we are heading towards the end of the month. A strong dollar and elevated crude oil prices may also put downside pressure on the Rupee,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“However, positive domestic markets and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) and foreign inflows may support the Rupee. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.30 to ₹84,” Mr. Choudhary added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.22% higher at 105.83. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.80% higher at $85.69 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 620.73 points, or 0.80%, to close at a new peak of 78,674.25 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 147.50 points or 0.62%, higher at a record 23,868.80 points.

FIIs were net buyers in the capital markets on June 25, as they purchased shares worth ₹1,175.91 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Tuesday asserted that the high interest rates are not impeding growth, and made it clear that the monetary policy will “unambiguously” focus on getting down inflation going forward.

“The country is at the threshold of a “major structural shift” in its growth trajectory and is moving towards a path where 8% real GDP growth can be sustained on a yearly basis,” Mr. Das said, addressing an event by Bombay Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened strong at 83.39 and moved in the range of 83.34 and 83.48 against the greenback during the session.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The Rupee paired its initial gains and settled one paisa lower at 83.44 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on June 19 in sink with the domestic equity markets that turned choppy at the fag-end of the session.

Forex traders said the gaining momentum in the local unit was snapped by a firm American currency and higher level of crude oil prices in the overseas market.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened strong at 83.39 and moved in the range of 83.34 and 83.48 against the greenback during the session. The local unit finally settled at 83.44 (provisional) against the American currency, registering a loss of 1 paisa from previous closing level. On June 18, the Rupee had settled 12 paise higher at 83.43 against the U.S. dollar.

Jateen Trivedi, V-P Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said the Rupee traded on a volatile note, showing strength at the opening but giving up gains as the dollar index found support near 104.80. “The Rupee is anticipated to continue trading in a volatile range between 83.25-83.60.”

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.01% at 104.88.

Analysts said the dollar index fell initially as the U.S. data showed the growth in retail sales was lower than expected, though the currency recovered with May industrial output numbers topping the forecast.

Officials of the U.S. Federal Reserve also indicated a hawkish stance to continue, dousing hopes of an interest rate cut until December. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.13% to $85.22 per barrel.

In the domestic equity markets, the 30-share BSE Sensex inched up 36.45 points, or 0.05% to 77,337.59 points. The broader NSE Nifty fell 41.90 points or 0.18%, to 23,516.00 points. Both the indices touched their fresh peak levels during intra-day.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they purchased shares worth ₹2,569.40 crore, according to exchange data.

Analysts attributed the strong FII buying to the firm domestic macroeconomic outlook and a sharp fall in the U.S. treasury yield. The government data released on Tuesday showed the net direct tax collection grew 21% to more than ₹4.62 lakh crore so far this fiscal on higher advance tax payments by corporates, reflecting robust economic activity.

Fitch Ratings on Tuesday raised India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.2%, from 7% projected in March, citing a recovery in consumer spending and increased investment.

On May 30, Rupee gained 11 paise to close at 83.29 against the U.S. dollar.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The Rupee paired all its early gains and settled with a steep loss of 20 paise at 83.49 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on May 31 amid volatile domestic equity markets and unabated outflow of foreign funds.

Forex traders said increased month-end demand of greenback by oil marketing companies also weighed on the Indian currency even as it found some support due to lower level of crude oil prices.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.25 and oscillated between the intra-day high of 83.23 and lowest level of 83.49 during the session. It finally settled at 83.49 (provisional), registering a loss of 20 paise from its previous closing level. On May 30, Rupee gained 11 paise to close at 83.29 against the U.S. dollar.

Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said the Rupee depreciated on month-end dollar demand from oil marketing companies and importers.

“We expect Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on overall strength in the U.S. dollar amid safe haven demand on the back of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.”

“Volatility in the domestic markets amid uncertainty over election results may also put downside pressure on the Rupee. However, positive tone in global markets today may support the Rupee at lower levels,” Mr. Choudhary said.

Traders are expected to take cues from the upcoming domestic GDP data and fiscal deficit numbers and personal consumption expenditure price index from the U.S. “USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.10 to Rs 83.70,” Mr. Choudhary said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.02% lower at 104.64.

According to analysts, U.S. dollar declined after the latest U.S. GDP data released on Thursday showed the world’s largest economy grew at a slower pace of 1.3% against the projected 1.6% in the January-March quarter. This triggered expectations of interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.44% to $81.50 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 75.71 points, or 0.10% to close at 73,961.31 points. The broader NSE Nifty went up 42.05 points or 0.19% to close at 22,530.70 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday, selling shares worth ₹3,050.15 crore, according to exchange data.

The Rupee appreciated six paise to close at 83.31 against the U.S. dollar on May 21 following a weak greenback against major currencies overseas and softening crude oil prices in international markets.

“However, a sluggish trend in the domestic equity markets restricted the sharp upside in the local currency,” forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened strong at 83.32 and touched an intraday high of 83.26 and a low of 83.36. The domestic unit finally settled at 83.31 (provisional), a gain of six paise from its previous close. On May 17, the Rupee had settled at 83.37 against the U.S. dollar.

The forex market was closed on May 20 on account of general elections. “A decline in crude oil prices and fresh foreign inflows also supported the rupee. “The U.S. Dollar softened on rate cut expectations by Fed but hawkish comments by Fed officials supported the U.S. dollar at lower levels,” Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas,” said.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 52.63 points or 0.07% to settle at 73,953.31, while the broader NSE Nifty rose 27.05 points or 0.12% to 22,529.05.

“The Rupee traded positively. This strength is attributed to predictions of the current government winning the general election, leading to increased stability.

“Additionally, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have been actively buying into capital markets. Soft crude prices and a stable dollar index also supported the Rupee. The expected range for the Rupee in the upcoming sessions is between 83.00 and 83.50,” Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Saturday, as they sold shares worth ₹92.95 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.07% to 104.38. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.97% to $82.90 per barrel.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.50 and touched an intraday high of 83.32 and a low of 83.50.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

Rupee appreciated 17 paise to close at 83.33 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on May 17, on positive domestic markets and expectations of some fresh foreign inflows.

“Reports of selling of U.S. dollars by the Reserve Bank of India also supported the Rupee,” forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.50 and touched an intraday high of 83.32 and a low of 83.50. The domestic unit finally settled at 83.33 (provisional), a rise of 17 paise from its previous close. On May 16, the Rupee had settled at 83.50 against the U.S. dollar.

“We expect the Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on strengthening of the U.S. dollar amid hawkish Fed speak and weak Asian and European markets. However, a positive tone in domestic markets may support the Rupee at lower levels.

“Any fresh FII inflows and/or RBI intervention may support Rupee at lower levels. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.20 to ₹83.70,” said Anuj Choudhary — Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 104.73, higher by 0.26%. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.13% to $83.38 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 253.31 points or 0.34% to close at 73,917.03 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 62.25 points or 0.28%, higher at 22,466.10 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on May 16, as they offloaded shares worth ₹776.49 crore, according to exchange data.

Rupee finally settled at 83.50 (provisional), higher by one paisa from its previous close.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The Rupee inched up one paisa to settle at 83.50 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on May 15 as the American currency retreated from its elevated level. However, sustained foreign fund outflows and a weak trend in domestic equities weighed on the local unit.

With foreign investors buying the U.S. dollars and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) selling the greenback, the USD/INR pair is expected to remain range-bound with a bit of a weakness bias, according to forex traders.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.49. During the session, it traded in a narrow range of 83.51-83.47. The domestic unit finally settled at 83.50 (provisional), higher by one paisa from its previous close.

The Rupee gained on weakness in the U.S. Dollar. However, weak domestic markets and FII selling capped sharp gains, said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“We expect the Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on the weak U.S. Dollar and expectations that the U.S. Dollar may rise again if inflation remains sticky and retail sales jumps,” Mr. Choudhary said, adding that FII outflows and a rise in crude oil prices may also weigh on the Rupee.

“Traders may take cues from India’s trade balance data and CPI and retail sales data from the U.S. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.30 to ₹83.80,” Mr. Choudhary said.

India’s merchandise exports in April 2024 marginally rose to $34.99 billion from $34.62 billion in the year-ago month, according to government data released on May 15.

Imports too increased to $54.09 billion from $49.06 billion in April 2023. The trade deficit, or the gap between imports and exports, during the month stood at $19.1 billion.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 104.85, lower by 0.15%, as Fed Chair, Jerome Powell dismissed the hot PPI data as not so hot after March’s reading was revised lower. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.18% to $82.53 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 117.58 points or 0.16% to close at 72,987.03 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 17.30 points or 0.08% lower, at 22,200.55 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on May 14, as they offloaded shares worth ₹4,065.52 crore, according to exchange data.

On the macroeconomic front, wholesale inflation rose to a 13-month high of 1.26% in April fuelled by rising prices of food articles, especially vegetables, amid expectations of RBI holding interest rates in the policy review next month.

Meanwhile, Moody’s Ratings on Tuesday said the Indian economy is projected to expand 6.6% in the current fiscal year and said strong credit demand fuelled by robust economic growth will support the NBFC sector’s profitability.

On May 10, the Rupee closed at 83.51 against the American currency.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The Rupee was trading in a narrow range against the U.S. dollar in early trade on May 13, tracking a weak trend in domestic equities and strong American currency.

Forex traders said with foreign investors buying U.S. dollars and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) selling the greenback, the USD/INR pair is expected to remain range-bound with a bit of a weakness bias.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit moved in a narrow range. It opened at 83.51 against the American currency and touched 83.52 in initial trade, registering a fall of 1 paisa from its previous close. On Friday, the Rupee closed at 83.51 against the American currency.

“Despite short-term pressures on the Rupee, major global factors such as the Israel-Iran conflict and oil prices are normalising. Consequently, considering internal factors such as the Lok Sabha elections passing, the Rupee is poised to align with its robust fundamentals,” CR Forex Advisors MD-Amit Pabari said.

“The downside risk for the Rupee is limited at 83.60. It is anticipated to appreciate to levels between 83 and 83.20 in the near term, with medium-term appreciation ranging from 82.80 to 82.50,” Mr. Pabari added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 105.32, higher by 0.02%. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.31% to $82.53 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 414.63 points, or 0.57% lower at 72,249.84 points. The broader NSE Nifty was down 105.60 points or 0.48% to 21,949.60 points.

“Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on May 10 as they offloaded shares worth ₹2,117.50 crore, according to exchange data. Meanwhile, after three consecutive weeks of drop, India’s forex reserves increased by $3.668 billion to $641.59 billion in the week ended May 3,” the RBI said on Friday.

The overall kitty dropped ₹2.412 billion to ₹637.922 billion for the previous week ended April 26.