Forex traders said the crude oil level of $69 per barrel will act as a support for the domestic unit as India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, stands to benefit from cheaper oil.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The rupee traded in a narrow range on Wednesday (September 11, 2024) and appreciated 2 paise to 83.96 against the American currency, on easing crude oil prices and tracking its Asian peers.

Forex traders said foreign institutional inflows, alongside significant corrections in asset classes like the dollar index and crude oil prices, supported the rupee, while the Reserve Bank’s active intervention kept the rupee in a tight range.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit moved in a narrow range. It opened at 83.97 against the American currency and was at 83.96 in initial trade, registering a rise of 2 paise over its previous close.

On Tuesday (September 10, 2024), the rupee depreciated 3 paise to close at 83.98 against the American currency.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.21% to 101.42 points.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, was trading higher by 0.48% to $69.52 per barrel in futures trade.

Forex traders said the crude oil level of $69 per barrel will act as a support for the domestic unit as India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, stands to benefit from cheaper oil.

“The Indian rupee cannot remain in such a state for long as fundamentals clearly indicated gains for rupee with a fall in oil prices, good economic fundamentals, rise in Asian currencies and rising interest differentials should allow RBI to allow the rise in rupee,” Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Bhansali further said that over a longer term, 83.97 looks to be a good selling level for exporters despite a higher Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), which the Reserve Bank may have to ignore for the moment. For the day, 83.90 to 84.05 should be the range.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 104.25 points, or 0.13%, to 81,817.04, while the Nifty was down 33.05 points, or 0.13%, to 25,008.05.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they purchased shares worth ₹2,208.23 crore, according to exchange data.

Image for representational purposes only.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

The rupee traded in a narrow range on Tuesday (September 10, 2024) and depreciated 2 paise to close at 83.97 (provisional) against the American currency, weighed down by the strengthening of the American currency in the overseas market.

Forex traders said the U.S. dollar recovered amid mixed non-farm payrolls data. The slight recovery in crude oil prices also weighed on the rupee. However, a surge in the domestic markets cushioned the downside.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.95 against the American currency and finally settled at 83.97 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar, down 2 paise from its previous close.

On Monday (September 9, 2024), the rupee traded in a narrow range and closed flat at 83.95 against the American currency.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on the strong US dollar and concerns over global economic growth. However, positive domestic markets and any intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may support the rupee at lower levels,” Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said.

Mr. Choudhary further noted that “investors may remain cautious ahead of the U.S. CPI and ECB monetary policy this week. “USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 83.70 to 84.20,” he said.

On the domestic equity markets front, the Sensex climbed 361.75 points, or 0.44%, to settle at 81,921.29 points, while the Nifty rose 104.70 points, or 0.42%, to close at 25,041.10 points.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.03% to 101.58.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 1.16% to 71.01 in futures trade.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Monday, as they purchased shares worth ₹1,176.55 crore, according to exchange data.

A customer holds hundred rupees Indian currency notes near a roadside currency exchange stall in New Delhi.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

The Indian rupee pared its initial gains and turned flat at 83.87 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Tuesday (August 20, 2024), as positive domestic equity markets and a weak American currency were negated by the outflow of foreign capital.

Forex traders said softening crude oil prices supported the local unit and prevented its fall.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 83.86 against the greenback, inched up to 83.84 before trading again at its previous session’s closing level of 83.87 against the dollar.

On Monday (August 19, 2024), the rupee settled 8 paise higher at 83.87 against the American currency.

Over the past holiday-shortened week, the rupee showed minimal fluctuation and narrowly steered clear of the critical of 84-mark.

Investors are expected to remain cautious ahead of PMI data from the U.S. and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole Symposium for any cues on rate cuts by the central bank.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.10% to 101.82.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.68% to $77.13 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex advanced 188.93 points, or 0.23%, to 80,613.61 points. The Nifty rose 60.15 points, or 0.24%, to 24,632.80 points.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday, offloading shares worth ₹2,667.46 crore, according to exchange data.

A currency trader is pictured through the symbol for the Indian Rupee on the floor of a trading firm in Mumbai.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

The rupee consolidated in a narrow range and settled for the day lower by 2 paise at 83.97 (provisional) against the American currency on Monday (August 12, 2024), as market participants remained on the sidelines ahead of the release of key domestic macroeconomic data.

Forex traders said the Indian rupee declined on a positive tone in the U.S. dollar and a surge in crude oil prices.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.95 and touched an intraday low of 83.98 and finally settled at 83.97 (provisional) against the American currency, lower by 2 paise from its previous close.

The local unit had slumped 37 paise to settle at an all-time low of 84.09 against the U.S. dollar on August 5. On Friday (August 9, 2024), the rupee settled for the day higher by 2 paise at 83.95 against U.S. dollar.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on strength in the U.S. dollar and rising global crude oil prices. Selling pressure from foreign investors and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may further pressurise the rupee,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Forex traders said for the USD/INR pair 84.00 level is acting as a psychological resistance. Market participants are also awaiting cues from the Indian CPI inflation and IIP numbers scheduled to be released later in the day.

Moreover, investors may remain cautious ahead of U.S. CPI, retail sales and consumer confidence data from the US this week. “USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.75 to ₹84.25,” Choudhary added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.05% higher at 103.18.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.85% to $80.34 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex declined 56.99 points, or 0.07%, to 79,648.92 points. The Nifty fell 20.50 points, or 0.08%, to 24,347.00 points.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday as they purchased shares worth ₹406.72 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves jumped by $7.533 billion to a new record high of $674.919 billion during the week ended August 2, the Reserve Bank said on Friday.

The rupee finally settled at 83.96 (provisional) against the American currency, down 4 paise from its previous close. File
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee consolidated in a narrow range and settled for the day lower by 4 paise at 83.96 (provisional) against U.S. dollar on Wednesday (August 7, 2024), weighed down by a recovery in the U.S. dollar and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Forex traders said the Indian rupee depreciated on Wednesday (August 7, 2024) on a strong U.S. dollar and positive crude oil prices. However, strength in the domestic markets cushioned the downside.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.86 and touched an intraday low of 83.97 against the dollar during the session. It finally settled at 83.96 (provisional) against the American currency, down 4 paise from its previous close.

On Tuesday (August 6, 2024), the rupee recovered from its all-time low level and settled for the day 17 paise higher at 83.92 against the U.S. dollar.

The local unit had slumped 37 paise to settle at an all-time low of 84.09 against the U.S. dollar on Monday (August 5, 2024).

“We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias on a recovery in the U.S. dollar and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, positive global equities may support the rupee at lower levels,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Any further intervention by the Reserve Bank may also support the rupee. Investors may watch out for RBI’s monetary policy decision. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.75 to ₹84.20, Mr. Choudhary added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, gained 0.31% to 103.28 points.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 1.22% higher at USD 77.41 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 874.94 points, or 1.11%, to close at 79,468.01 points, while the Nifty advanced 304.95 points, or 1.27%, to 24,297.50 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday (August 6, 2024) as they offloaded shares worth ₹3,531.24 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank’s rate-setting panel started its three-day deliberations for the next set of bi-monthly monetary policy on Tuesday (August 6, 2024) amid expectations of no change in benchmark interest rate in view of concerns on inflation and economic growth remaining steady.

The decision of the RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das-headed six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be announced on Thursday (August 8, 2024).

Indian twenty rupee currency notes are displayed at a roadside currency exchange stall in New Delhi.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

Rupee opened on a muted note and fell to an all-time low of 83.80 against the U.S. dollar on August 5, as the risk off situation in world markets kept the dollar well bid.

Forex traders said the sharp downfall in the domestic unit came on the heels of a significant downturn in the Indian equity markets and significant foreign fund outflows.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.78 and then fell to an all-time low of 83.80 against the American currency, registering a fall of 8 paise from its previous close.

On August 2, the rupee settled 1 paisa higher at 83.72 against the U.S. dollar in a range-bound trade.

Over the past week, major global equities experienced a significant sell-off. The release of last week’s U.S. Jobs Report, which fell significantly below expectations, sparked recession fears in the market, increasing demand for safe-haven assets.

Additionally, the upcoming U.S. elections in November are likely to keep investors on edge. Meanwhile, tensions are escalating in the Middle East following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

The Indian rupee has remained largely south of the 83.70 level despite the weakening of the U.S. dollar. Additionally, oil prices saw an 11 per cent correction.

“However, despite these favourable conditions, the rupee has not appreciated, likely due to the Reserve Bank of India capping its movement. In the short term, the Rupee is expected to trade within the range of 83.75 to 83.90,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 102.95, lower by 0.24%.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.30% to $77.04 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 1533.11 points, or 1.89% lower at 79,448.84 points. The broader NSE Nifty was down 463.50 points, or 1.88%, to 24,254.20 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on August 2 as they offloaded shares worth ₹3310.00 crore, according to exchange data.

The rupee was trading in a narrow range against the U.S. dollar in early trade on May 8.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

The rupee was trading in a narrow range against the U.S. dollar in early trade on May 8, amid a negative trend in domestic equities and strong American currency.

Forex traders said significant foreign fund outflows in the international market dented investors’ sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.50, and touched 83.49 in initial trade, registering a gain of 2 paise from its previous close.

On May 7, the rupee closed at 83.51 against the American currency.

Forex traders easing crude oil prices supported the rupee and restricted the downside.

“Demand for dollars from foreign investors kept the rupee down on May 7 and though May 8th’s opening looks to be flat, the demand should continue. Selling by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could keep it range-bound.

“Importers are expected to adopt ‘wait and watch’ approach with a stop loss on breach of 83.60,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 105.55, higher by 0.14%.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.43% to $82.80 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 256.62 points, or 0.35% lower at 73,255.23 points. The broader NSE Nifty was down 60 points, or 0.27%, to 22,242.50 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on May 7 as they offloaded shares worth ₹3,668.84 crore, according to exchange data.

Representational image only.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The Rupee was trading in a narrow range and appreciated three paise to 83.25 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on October 19, amid a negative trend in domestic equities.

Forex traders said the Rupee is trading in a narrow range as sustained foreign fund outflows and strength of the American currency in the overseas market weighed on investor sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 83.26 against the dollar and then touched an early high of 83.25, registering a gain of three paise over its previous close. On Wednesday, the Rupee settled at 83.28 against the U.S. dollar.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.04% higher at 106.60. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.55% to $91 per barrel.

Forex traders said crude oil prices fell as markets await further development from the Israel-Hamas war, while focus remained on upcoming signals from the U.S. Fed.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 435.23 points or 0.66% lower at 65,441.79. The broader NSE Nifty declined 131.00 points or 0.67% to 19,540.10.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on October 18 as they sold shares worth ₹1,831.84 crore, according to exchange data.

“FPIs continued their relentless selling in stocks and this buying of dollars from oil companies who due to steep rise in oil prices have been on the U.S. dollar buy side for the last one month keeping rupee in range as RBI sold dollars,” Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of Treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.