The rupee settled 10 paise higher at 83.77 against the American currency on Tuesday. File
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The Indian rupee depreciated by 7 paise to 83.84 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Wednesday (August 21, 2024), tracking subdued domestic equity market trend and unabated outflow of foreign capital.

A weak American currency and lower crude prices, however, supported the local unit and prevented its sharp fall, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened weak at 83.79 and lost further to 83.84 against the greenback, declining 7 paise from its previous days’ closing level of 83.77.

The rupee settled 10 paise higher at 83.77 against the American currency on Tuesday (August 20, 2024), a day after gaining 8 paise.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading marginally higher by 0.02% to 101.31.

Analysts said the dollar index is at a seven-month low level amid concerns over upcoming Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from the U.S. and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole Symposium later this week.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.17% to $77.07 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex fell 24.50 points, or 0.03%, to 80,778.36 points. The Nifty was almost flat at 24,699.55 points.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday (August 20, 2024), offloading shares worth ₹1,457.96 crore, according to exchange data.

File image.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The Indian rupee stayed firm for the second straight session and settled 8 paise higher at 83.79 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday (August 20, 2024), buoyed by positive domestic equity markets, weak American currency and lower crude oil prices.

Forex traders said, foreign fund outflow, however, resisted a sharp rise in the local unit.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 83.86 against the greenback and traded in the range of 83.76 to 83.88. The unit finally settled at 83.79 (provisional) against the dollar, registering a gain of 8 paise from its previous closing level.

On Monday, the rupee settled 8 paise higher at 83.87 against the American currency.

Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said the rupee rose to the highest levels in nearly two and a half weeks on a weak US dollar and positive domestic markets.

“A decline in crude oil prices also supported the rupee. However, FII outflows capped sharp gains.” Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.04% to 101.68.

Analysts said the U.S. dollar declined to a seven-month low on rising odds of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

“USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83.50 to Rs 84,” Choudhary said, adding that concerns over upcoming PMI data from the US and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole Symposium later this week may keep investors awaiting for further cues.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.31% to $77.42 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex climbed 378.18 points, or 0.47%, to 80,802.86 points. The Nifty rose 126.20 points, or 0.51%, to 24,698.85 points.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday, offloading shares worth ₹2,667.46 crore, according to exchange data.

The rupee strengthens against the dollar, supported by a positive equities trend
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The Rupee appreciated 8 paise to 83.89 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Friday (August 9, 2024), supported by a positive trend in domestic equities and a decline in the U.S. dollar index.

Forex traders said that after the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy announcement, markets now await U.S. CPI data, India CPI, WPI and IIP data and India’s trade data, all scheduled to be released next week.

“The Jackson Holes Symposium to be held after next week will also remain in focus,” traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 83.95 against the greenback, then touched 83.89, registering a rise of 8 paise over its previous closing price.

On Thursday (August 8, 2024), the rupee consolidated in a narrow range and settled for the day lower by 2 paise at 83.97 against the U.S. dollar.

“The rupee was protected by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) at 83.96 for this week and the local unit is likely to trade in a narrow range of 83.90/84.00 for the day after the RBI kept key benchmark rates on hold,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director of Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.03% lower at 103.17.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.15% to $79.28 per barrel. “Brent oil prices rose to $79.22, a 3% weekly gain, on rising Middle East tensions and better than expected U.S. jobless claims data, giving a better outlook on the U.S. economy,” Mr. Bhansali added.

Market analysts said while the rupee seems to be tilting towards a negative bias, sharp fluctuations are not anticipated.

Meanwhile, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank kept the benchmark repurchase or repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy review RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, “The Indian rupee has remained largely range-bound so far this financial year.”

Mr. Das further noted that the country’s forex reserves touched a record high of $675 billion as of August 2.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex surged 958.63 points, or 1.22%, to 79,844.85 points. The Nifty advanced 280.70 points, or 1.16%, to 24,397.70 points.

“Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday (August 8, 2024), as they offloaded shares worth ₹2,626.73 crore,” according to exchange data.

On August 1, the Rupee declined five paise to settle at 83.73 against the U.S. dollar.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The Rupee turned flat at 83.73 against the U.S. currency on August 2 amid weak equity markets and an upward movement in crude oil prices overseas.

According to forex traders, “the Indian currency found support due to softening the dollar against major rivals following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates and some inflows of foreign capital into Indian equities.”

At the interbank currency exchange, the domestic currency opened at 83.74 and inched up to trade at 83.73 against the dollar, the previous day’s closing level. On August 1, the Rupee declined five paise to settle at 83.73 against the U.S. dollar.

Anand James, Chief Market Strategist of Geojit Financial Services, said the Rupee’s weakness was capped by “a likely intervention from the Reserve Bank of India”.

“The next key U.S. economic release is the July jobs report, expected on August 2,” he added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.07% to 104.13. Brent crude — the global oil benchmark — rose by 0.79% to $80.15 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 614.96 points or 0.75% to 81,252.59 in morning trade, while the broader Nifty declined 194.80 points or 0.78% to 24,816.10.

“Foreign institutional investors were net buyers in the capital markets on August 1 and bought shares worth ₹2,089.28 crore, “ according to exchange data.

A monthly survey released on August 1 showed India’s manufacturing sector growth eased slightly to 58.1 in July from 58.3 in June on softer increases in new orders and output, while cost pressures and demand strength led to the steepest increase in selling prices since October 2013.

“The government’s GST collections in July rose 10.3% to more than ₹1.82 lakh crore, driven by domestic transactions in goods and services,” according to official data released on August 1.

On July 24, the Rupee depreciated two paise to hit its all-time closing low of 83.71 against the U.S. dollar. File
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The Rupee fell one paisa to close at an all-time low of 83.72 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on July 25, dragged down by demand for the American currency in the overseas market and significant foreign fund outflows.

Forex traders said the fall in domestic unit came on the heels of a significant downturn in the Indian equity markets, sparked by the government’s decision to hike the tax rate on capital gains.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.72 and touched an intra-day high of 83.66 and a low of 83.72 against the dollar during the session.

It finally settled at an all-time low level of 83.72 (provisional) against the American currency, down one paisa from its previous close. On July 24, the Rupee depreciated two paise to hit its all-time closing low of 83.71 against the U.S. dollar.

“The local unit appreciated slightly during the intra-day trade on supposed intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and overall weakness in crude oil prices,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“We expect the Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on weak global markets and fresh FII outflows. However, weak U.S. dollar and declining crude oil prices may support the Rupee at lower levels. intervention by the Reserve Bank may also support the Rupee,” Mr. Choudhary added.

The government’s decision to hike the tax rate on capital gains dampened market sentiment, exerting immense pressure on the Rupee and the equity market.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 109.08 points or 0.14% to settle at 80,039.80 points and Nifty dropped 7.40 points or 0.03% to 24,406.10 points.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 104.17, lower by 0.21%. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 1.79% to $81.25 per barrel.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Wednesday as they offloaded shares worth ₹5,130.90 crore, according to exchange data.

On July 24, the Rupee depreciated two paise to hit its all-time closing low of 83.71 against the U.S. dollar.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

Rupee opened on a muted note and fell to an all-time low of 83.72 against the U.S. dollar on July 25, dragged down by the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and significant foreign fund outflows.

Forex traders said the fall in the domestic unit came on the heels of a significant downturn in the Indian equity markets, sparked by the government’s decision to hike the tax rate on capital gains.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit was trading in a narrow range. It opened at an all-time low of 83.72 against the American currency, registering a fall of one paisa from its previous close.

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On July 24, the Rupee depreciated two paise to hit its all-time closing low of 83.71 against the U.S. dollar. The government’s decision to hike the tax rate on capital gains dampened market sentiment, exerting immense pressure on the Rupee and the equity market.

“Post-Budget day, the benchmark Indian equity indices, BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, dipped by approximately 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, as foreign institutional investors withdrew a staggering $350 million from Indian stocks.

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“Adding to the turmoil, persistent high demand for dollars, driven by defence and oil payments, compounded the currency’s woes,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 104.21, lower by 0.17%. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.75% to $81.10 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 425.14 points or 0.53% lower at 79,723.74 points. The broader NSE Nifty was down 120.65 points or 0.49% to 24,292.85 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on July 24 as they offloaded shares worth ₹5,130.90 crore, according to exchange data.

On July 12, the Rupee settled at 83.51 against the U.S. dollar.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

Rupee depreciated 11 paise and settled for the day at an all-time low of 83.62 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on July 15, weighed down by the overall strength of the American currency in the overseas market.

Forex traders said a positive trend in domestic equities, wherein benchmark indices touched all-time high levels and significant foreign fund inflows supported the Rupee at lower levels.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.53, but lost ground and finally settled at an all-time low of 83.62 (provisional) against the dollar, 11 paise lower than its previous close. On July 12, the Rupee settled at 83.51 against the U.S. dollar.

Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said the Rupee declined on positive U.S. dollar and rising domestic inflation.

“U.S. dollar rose on safe haven demand amid political violence in the U.S.,” he said, adding that rising odds of a rate cut by Fed in September may limit a sharp upside in the greenback.

“Traders may take cues from Empire State manufacturing index data from the U.S.. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.30 to ₹83.80,” Mr. Choudhary said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading marginally lower by 0.02% at 104.07. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.09% higher at $85.11 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the benchmark indices scaled all-time high levels. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended the day 145.52 points, or 0.18%, higher at an all-time high of 80,664.86 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 84.55 points, or 0.35%, higher at a record 24,586.70 points.

According to the official data released on July 15, wholesale inflation in the country rose for the fourth consecutive month in June at 3.36% on account of rise in prices of food articles, especially vegetables and manufactured items.

The government data released on Friday showed retail inflation increased to a four-month high of 5.08% in June as food items, including vegetables became dearer.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday, as they purchased shares worth ₹4,021.60 crore, according to exchange data.

The rupee depreciated 4 paise to settle at 83.52 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by elevated crude oil prices.

Forex traders said the Indian rupee depreciated on strength in crude oil prices, which touched a two-week high on Tuesday. However, a firm tone in domestic markets and favourable macroeconomic data cushioned the downside.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.51 and hit the intraday high of 83.49 and a low of 83.56 against the American currency during the session.

It finally settled at 83.52 (provisional) against the dollar, 4 paise lower than its previous close.

On Tuesday, the rupee depreciated 4 paise to settle at 83.48 against the U.S. dollar.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on softening of the U.S. dollar and rise in global risk sentiments. Strength in the domestic markets may also support sentiments,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas “However, elevated crude oil price and FII outflows may cap sharp upside. Traders may take cues from ADP non-farm employment, weekly unemployment claims, ISM services PMI, Challenger job cuts, trade balance and factory orders data from the U.S. Investors may remain cautious ahead of FOMC meeting minutes,” Mr. Choudhary said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.10% lower at 105.61.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.09% higher at $86.32 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, Sensex hit the historic 80,000-mark and Nifty scaled a fresh lifetime high. The 30-share BSE Sensex finally ended the day 545.35 points, or 0.69%, up at 79,986.80 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 162.65 points, or 0.67%, higher at 24,286.50 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹2,000.12 crore, according to exchange data.

On the domestic macroeconomic front, India’s services sector growth quickened in June from May’s five-month low.

The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index rose from 60.2 in May to 60.5 in June, pointing to a sharp expansion in output.

The rupee depreciated 6 paise to settle at 83.50 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, weighed down by a strong greenback in the overseas market and elevated global crude oil prices.

Besides, a muted trend in domestic equities and foreign fund outflows dented investor sentiments, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.51 and hit the intraday high of 83.47 and a low of 83.56 against the American currency during the session.

It finally settled at 83.50 (provisional) against the dollar, 6 paise lower than its previous close.

On Monday, the rupee depreciated 10 paise to settle at 83.44 against the U.S. dollar.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias as the strength in the U.S. Dollar and surge in crude oil prices may keep the rupee under downside pressure,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Mr. Choudhary further said the overall positive trend in the domestic markets and expectations of fresh foreign inflows may support the rupee at lower levels. Traders may take cues from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech and JOLTS job openings data from the U.S.

“USD/INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.20 to ₹83.75,” Mr. Choudhary said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.09% higher at 105.99.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.76% higher at $87.26 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 34.74 points, or 0.04%, to close at a new peak of 79,441.45 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 18.10 points, or 0.07%, lower at 24,123.85 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹426.03 crore, according to exchange data.

On Tuesday, the Rupee appreciated four paise and settled at 83.43 against the greenback.

The Rupee depreciated 17 paise against the U.S. dollar and settled at 83.60 (provisional) on June 26, weighed down by the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and elevated crude oil prices.

“However, a firm trend in domestic equities, wherein benchmark indices scaled new peaks, supported the local unit and restricted the downslide,” forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.45 and hit the intraday high of 83.43 and a low of 83.61 against the greenback during the session. It finally settled at 83.60 (provisional) against the dollar, 17 paise lower than its previous close. On Tuesday, the Rupee appreciated four paise and settled at 83.43 against the greenback.

“We expect the Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on dollar demand ahead from oil importers as we are heading towards the end of the month. A strong dollar and elevated crude oil prices may also put downside pressure on the Rupee,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“However, positive domestic markets and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) and foreign inflows may support the Rupee. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.30 to ₹84,” Mr. Choudhary added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.22% higher at 105.83. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.80% higher at $85.69 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 620.73 points, or 0.80%, to close at a new peak of 78,674.25 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 147.50 points or 0.62%, higher at a record 23,868.80 points.

FIIs were net buyers in the capital markets on June 25, as they purchased shares worth ₹1,175.91 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Tuesday asserted that the high interest rates are not impeding growth, and made it clear that the monetary policy will “unambiguously” focus on getting down inflation going forward.

“The country is at the threshold of a “major structural shift” in its growth trajectory and is moving towards a path where 8% real GDP growth can be sustained on a yearly basis,” Mr. Das said, addressing an event by Bombay Chamber of Commerce and Industry.