In a development that has stunned most political observers, the New Popular Front (Nouveau Front Populaire, or NFP), a leftwing coalition, has won the most number of seats in France’s legislative elections that concluded on July 7. It secured 182 seats, defeating both President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance Ensemble (168), and the far-right National Rally (RN), which performed way below poll predictions, mustering only 143. With 289 needed for absolute majority in the 577-member National Assembly, and none of the three major political blocs close to this figure, France has been plunged into political uncertainty. But the country wasn’t even due for elections this year.

The whole chain of events began with the European Parliament elections in June. Marine Le Pen’s RN finished at the top with 31.37% of the votes, handing a crushing defeat to Mr. Macron’s Ensemble, which came a distant second with 14.60% votes. Mr. Macron responded to this setback by dissolving the National Assembly and calling snap polls. He justified his decision as intended to save France from being taken over by a resurgent far-right, ostensibly by forcing the French to choose between the moderates and those on the political extremes.

Many analysts, however, criticised his move as an impetuous gamble. The first round of the elections on June 30 seemed to vindicate the criticism. The RN won 33% of the votes, while the Macronists got just 21% — even less than what they secured in the first round in 2022. The NFP came second with 28%. Ahead of the run-off on July 7, exit polls predicted a comfortable win for the RN. But to everyone’s surprise, the leftwing bloc came first.

The NFP is a last-minute, hastily cobbled together coalition of four left-of-centre elements — the Socialists, the Greens, the Communists, and the hard-left France Unbowed of Jean-Luc Melenchon. The same four had come together to form the New Ecological and Social Popular Union (NUPES) ahead of the 2022 legislative elections, where they won 142 seats and denied Mr. Macron a majority. But NUPES broke up last October following Hamas’s surprise attack and Israel’s retaliatory invasion of Gaza. The fragmentation was triggered by Mr. Melenchon’s stand against describing the Hamas attack as “terrorist”, prompting the Socialists to quit the alliance.

Also Read | Resurgent left: On the French elections, European politics

Pressure from the ground

No one expected the perennially squabbling left parties to reunite so swiftly. But this time, the pressure for left unity was immense, and came from the ground up — from trade unions, citizens’ collectives, and civil society organisations. In the aftermath of the RN’s dominant performance in the European elections, and pollsters predicting a far-right victory in the election to come, thousands took to the streets, pressuring different sections of the French left to, in the words of Mr. Melenchon, “throw their resentments in the river” and stand together as a ‘republican dam’ against the destructive flood of fascism.

The very name ‘New Popular Front’ is a throwback to the Popular Front of 1936, the historic leftwing alliance led by socialist Prime Minister Leon Blum, which pushed back against fascism even as the rest of Europe crumbled before it. It is considered customary for the French Left to unite whenever the Republic is threatened by fascist forces. With victory for the RN a near certainty, the ex-NUPES parties worked overtime to negotiate a common platform, which became the NFP.

The results of the first round were encouraging for the alliance, as they finished second. But it wasn’t going to be enough to stop the RN from forming the government. Had it done so, it would have been the first time a far-right party came to power in France since the Vichy regime of the Second World War. But the NFP managed to avert this eventuality, thanks in large measure to the tactical understanding it reached with Macronists for the second round.

Invoking the notion of the ‘Republican dam’, both the NFP and Mr. Macron’s party withdrew more than 200 candidates from three-way contests to avoid splitting the anti-RN vote. While the NFP withdrew more than 130 candidates, about 80 Macronists stepped back, so that the run-offs became a two-way contest between the far-right and the rest. The strategy worked. Both Ensemble and the NFP did well while the RN’s performance slumped. The RN’s president, Jordan Bardella, complained bitterly about this tactic, calling it a “dishonourable alliance” that has “deprived the French people” of an RN victory.

When the results came out, Mr. Melenchon described them as a victory for the NFP and proclaimed that Mr. Macron should invite his alliance to form the new government. A minority government that forms issue-based coalitions is not unthinkable in France. There are constitutional provisions under which laws can be passed by decree. But Mr. Macron seems reluctant to work with a Prime Minister from the NFP, whose political programme is directly at odds with his own. Despite the sharp erosion in his party’s numbers, he has refused to accept Prime Minister Gabriel Attal’s resignation, asking him to temporarily continue in office. According to the Constitution, Mr. Macron, whose own term extends till 2027, cannot dissolve the Assembly and call for fresh elections at least for one year, or until June 2025.

‘Acts of rupture’

But the French Left are projecting the election results as both a defeat of the far-right and a mandate for an NFP government. The core of the NFP’s policy agenda is what they call “acts of rupture”, or a break from the status quo of Mr. Macron’s neoliberal economics. Weighted heavily by the priorities of its largest constituent, France Unbowed, the NFP’s ‘rupture’ programme tries to capture the spirit of the original Popular Front, which pioneered landmark pro-labour legislation such as paid vacations and 40-hour work weeks.

As per its policy programme, the NFP, if it comes to power, would immediately freeze the prices of essentials like food and gas, hike the minimum wage, and reverse Mr. Macron’s pension reform that increased the retirement age to 64. Subsequently, they would repeal Mr. Macron’s immigration law and reintroduce the wealth tax. On the foreign policy front, they will recognise Palestinian statehood and replace the idea of “unconditional support” for any nation with support for international rule of law.

As things stand, however, in order to form the government, the NFP may have to make several compromises, including junking the idea of Mr. Melenchon as Prime Minister. With influential sections of the French media, and Mr. Macron himself, likening a government at the mercy of Mr. Melenchon’s ‘far-left’ politics to be as dangerous, if not worse, than an RN regime, there is talk of a coalition being cobbled together from among the Macronist centrists and the moderates from the right as well as the left. But that won’t be easy as even the moderates in the NFP camp would find it difficult to walk away from the “rupture” agenda.

With Mr. Macron under no deadline to name a new Prime Minister, the messy political scenario may not resolve itself before the Olympics, the nation’s top priority at the moment, are over. For now, the French Left are basking in their unforeseen success in halting the far-right juggernaut in its tracks — an achievement that continues to elude mainstream political parties across much of Europe.

After a shock defeat in France’s legislative elections, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) will double down on weeding out problematic candidates to counter successful efforts by mainstream parties to block the far right from power.

Polls had suggested the RN would secure the most seats in the snap two-round election, which French President Emmanuel Macron called after Ms. Le Pen’s party was the clear victor of June’s European parliamentary vote. Yet the RN ultimately placed third, with its hopes of forming France’s first far-right government since World War II thwarted by centrist and left-wing parties who withdrew about 200 third-placed candidates to unify the anti-RN vote. The strategy, known as the “republican front”, is a feature of French political life and has been used for decades to block the RN from power.

‘Casting errors that cost us dearly’

RN officials and lawmakers who spoke to Reuters believe the party can overcome this electoral barricade if it professionalises further, following a path laid out by Ms. Le Pen after she lost the 2017 presidential election to Macron. That means greater screening of potential candidates and tougher party discipline to avoid costly gaffes, they said.

In the run-up to the vote, media reports unveiled an RN candidate who had been photographed in a Nazi cap and another who sought to defend against the party’s history of racism and antisemitism by saying she had a Jewish eye doctor and Muslim dentist. After the vote, a newly elected RN lawmaker was ejected from the party’s parliamentary group for saying French Arabs had no place in government.

“We have to avoid these casting errors that cost us dearly and clearly hurt us,” said Julien Masson, an RN official in Brittany.

Heads have already begun to roll, with Gilles Pennelle, a member of the European Parliament, stepping down from his role as the RN executive in charge of overseeing candidate lists. “He was blamed for the candidates who were not good, who were not up to the level,” Mr. Masson said. Mr. Pennelle did not respond to requests for comment.

Two RN lawmakers told Reuters there would be more media training to avoid a repeat of embarrassing interviews in which candidates appeared amateurish. RN lawmaker Jean-Philippe Tanguy said the party was judged by an unfair standard, but acknowledged it needed to do better. “You always have to improve,” he told Reuters, adding that Ms. Le Pen’s 28-year-old protege Jordan Bardella would soon announce proposals to address “organisational problems.”

Le Pen’s popularity

Christophe Gervasi, who conducts private polling for the RN, said that as well as inexperienced and ill-disciplined recruits, the party’s tendency to be vague and inconsistent on policy proposals had dented its credibility. The party pledges to cut immigration, reduce fuel costs and be tougher on crime, common themes among populist far-right parties, but has dropped previous positions questioning EU and NATO membership.

Mr. Gervasi said it would be no easy task for the RN to overcome the republican front. “There are endemic structural weaknesses that persist,” he said. “The system is defending itself against the RN’s accession to power.”

Patrick Weil, a historian of the far right, said he doubted that an RN deep-clean would be enough for it to bulldoze the republican front. Much would depend on how the future government pans out and who stands in the 2027 election, in which Ms. Le Pen is likely to make her fourth attempt at the presidency. “If someone popular runs, Marine le Pen will be beaten. If someone very unpopular runs, she will be elected,” he said.

Adélaïde Zulfikarpasic, of BVA Xsight pollsters, said the surprising solidity of the republican front, which many had predicted to crumble in this election, underlined lingering discomfort with the far right. “The RN is undoubtedly still a little scary,” she said. “Its demonisation is not over.”

The tide is rising, says Le Pen

Sunday’s result was not a complete disaster for the RN, which nearly doubled its seats in the National Assembly. The party scooped up nearly a third of the popular vote, a record high for the RN in parliamentary elections.

The party can now watch from the opposition benches as centrist and leftist parties with no tradition of coalition-building guide France through a period of political instability. That could benefit the RN ahead of a 2027 election. “The tide is rising, but it has not risen high enough this time,” Ms. Le Pen said on Sunday. “Our victory is only delayed.”

The day after the vote, Bardella acknowledged the party had made mistakes, including on the choice of some of its candidates, but said the seeds of victory had been sown.

Towns like Nangis, located about 75 k.m. southeast of Paris in the Brie agricultural plain, provide hope for the RN. The constituency was in the hands of the mainstream, conservative right for 66 years until the RN finally wrested it away.

Isabelle Martin, a 52-year-old administrative worker, was among locals who voted for the RN. She was disappointed mainstream parties combined to stop the RN from winning power at the national level, an arrangement she described as “les magouilles”, or dirty deals. But she predicted the resulting political chaos would benefit the RN.

“The others have three years to prove that they can do something good,” Ms. Martin said. “If they haven’t pulled it off by 2027 then maybe (the RN) have a chance.”

A shock election win for France’s leftist alliance has reinforced wariness among investors who had already braced for the risk of political deadlock and a policy paralysis that’s unlikely to improve the country’s creaking public finances.

The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance won the most seats in Sunday’s election, but fell far short of an absolute majority, a big surprise after Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) led opinion polls.

France, at the centre of the euro project and the bloc’s second biggest economy, still faces a hung parliament and taxing negotiations to form a government as markets had already anticipated – just with the left in pole position, rather than the far-right.

The risk premium, or spread, for holding France’s debt over Germany’s was at 65 basis points on Monday, a touch lower from Friday. It remains below the 12-year high hit in June at 85 bps.

Still, that gap is not expected to tighten again rapidly with concern fixed on what France’s new political climate means for its stretched public finances that have left it facing European Union disciplinary measures.

Debt stood at 110.6% of output in 2023.

“For any budget to be passed in the new assembly, probably at the margin some fiscal loosening is required to get a compromise,” said Kevin Zhao, head of global sovereign and currency at UBS Asset Management, which manages $1.7 trillion in assets.

Market relief proved tentative on Monday. France’s main CAC 40 stocks index, down 3.7% since Macron called the election, rose as much as 0.8% on Monday then gave up all its gain.

Shares in France’s three biggest lenders – BNP Paribas , Societe Generale and Credit Agricole – which have dropped as much as 9.8% since June 9, also reversed earlier gains and were down 0.4%-1.2% at 1418 GMT.

Banks had been hard hit in the run-up to the vote on concerns that higher political uncertainty would translate into increased economic risks and fears of possible windfall taxes.

With the left more than 100 seats short of an absolute majority and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist grouping in second place, a hung parliament was still seen as the best outcome for investors in French assets, with it expected to limit the left’s spending plans and avert a potential budget-driven market crisis.

The NFP’s plans include scrapping Macron’s pension reform raising the minimum wage and capping the prices of key goods.

It says the costs of its program would be offset by measures including tax increases.

But some investors had deemed an NFP absolute majority a bigger threat to markets than the RN, as the left alliance has said it doesn’t plan to reduce France’s high budget deficit.

“When you look at the composition of the parliament, the bar for the far-left to start doing anything market unfriendly is very, very high,” said Gabriele Foa, portfolio manager at Algebris Investments, noting that the more moderate Socialists won a sizable share of the NFP seats.

Possibilities for a new government include the NFP forming a minority government, Macron peeling off Socialists and Greens from the NFP to isolate Jean-Luc Melenchon’s far-left France Unbowed for a coalition with his own bloc, or a technocratic government.

NO RESPITE

Still, a hung parliament was not seen by investors as good news for France’s public finances and investors expected the country’s budget deficit – at 5.5% of output last year – to stay elevated.

Melenchon said the NFP would execute its programme, while Socialist leader Olivier Faure said Mr. Macron’s pension reform must be cancelled.

S&P Global Ratings warned on Monday that France’s credit rating, which it recently downgraded, would come under pressure if economic growth falls short of projections or the budget deficit cannot be reduced.

Analysts do not expect the French/German bond spread to return to the roughly 50 bps level seen before Macron called the election.

“To be able to step (back into) French debt, will mean that we have guarantees from the government that they are taking good decisions to restore the fiscal and budgetary balances,” said Matthieu de Clermont, head of insurance and regulatory strategies at Allianz Global Investors.

“I’m not sure we’ll get that any time soon.”

Some investors said the French-German spread could widen again if uncertainty drags on, raising the cost for France to borrow on international bond markets relative to its neighbours, potentially increasing pressure on the budget.

“The biggest risk other than near-term headlines is what happens with the EDP and negotiations with the European Commission,” said Schroders fund manager James Ringer, referring to the EU’s budgetary discipline measures.

Investors remained cautious on French assets as they said it was too early to gauge what a new government would look like. The risk of another election in a year’s time is not ruled out.

“It is probably going to take weeks, if not months, before Macron and others sort out their alliances.” said Anders Persson, chief investment officer, head of global fixed income at Nuveen, which manages $1.2 trillion in assets.

He remains underweight French government bonds.

A coalition on the left that came together unexpectedly ahead of France’s snap elections won the most parliamentary seats in the vote, according to polling projections. The surprise projections put President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance in second and the far right in third.
| Photo Credit: AP

French parties sought to project strength and gather allies on July 9, with the government adrift following an election in which no one political force claimed a clear majority.

Having defied expectations to top the polls, new MPs from the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance began showing up to visit their new workplaces in parliament ahead of a first session on July 18.

But the coalition of Greens, Socialists, Communists and the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) is still debating over who to put forward as a potential Prime Minister and whether it could be open to working in a broader coalition.

Combined, the left-leaning parties hold 193 of 577 seats in the National Assembly and are well short of the 289-seat threshold for a majority.

Nevertheless, members plan to name a potential Prime Minister “by the end of the week,” leading LFI figure Mathilde Panot said.

In the French system, the President nominates the Prime Minister, who must be able to survive a confidence vote in parliament — a tricky proposition with three closely-balanced political forces in play.

Also Read | France President Emmanuel Macron bid to reshape political landscape leaves no clear path to form new government

Any left-leaning government would need “broader support in the National Assembly,” influential Socialist MP Boris Vallaud acknowledged in an interview with broadcaster France Inter.

Mr. Macron’s camp came second in Sunday’s vote, taking 164 seats after voters came together to block the far-right National Rally (RN) from power.

This left the anti-immigration, anti-Brussels outfit in third place with 143 MPs.

The President has kept Prime Minister Gabriel Attal’s government in place for now, hoping horse-trading in the coming days and weeks could leave an opening for him to reclaim the initiative.

However, “there has been an institutional shift. Everyone thinks it’s up to the newly-elected National Assembly to bring forth a solution, which (Mr. Macron) would simply have to accept,” wrote commentator Guillaume Tabard in conservative daily Le Figaro.

‘None can govern alone’

In a sign that some divisions remain, the left parties’ MPs planned to enter the parliament at different times throughout the day.

The Socialists are still hoping to glean a few more members for their group to outweigh LFI and have a greater say over the alliance’s direction.

Meanwhile, members of Mr. Macron’s camp were eyeing both the centre-left Socialists and conservative Republicans as possible allies of convenience for a new centrist-dominated coalition.

“None of the three leading blocs can govern alone,” Stephane Sejourne, head of Mr. Macron’s Renaissance party, wrote in daily Le Monde.

“The centrist bloc is ready to talk to all the members of the republican spectrum,” he added — while naming red lines including that coalition members must support the EU and Ukraine and maintain business-friendly policies.

These requirements, he warned, “necessarily exclude LFI” and its caustic founder Jean-Luc Melenchon.

Markets are paying close attention to the EU’s second-largest economy.

Ratings agency Moody’s warned it could downgrade its credit score for France’s more than three-trillion-euro debt pile if a future government reverses Mr. Macron’s widely-loathed 2023 pension reform, echoing a Monday warning from S&P on the deficit.

What next?

Even as politicians struggle to define the immediate path ahead, eyes are also already turning to the next time French voters will be called to the polls.

Macron’s term expires in 2027 and he cannot run a third time — potentially leaving the way open for his twice-defeated opponent, RN figurehead Marine Le Pen, to finally capture the presidency.

The far-right outfit has been digesting a disappointing result after polls suggested it could take an absolute majority in parliament.

On Tuesday, party sources told AFP its director-general Gilles Penelle had resigned.

Penelle, elected last month to the European Parliament, was the architect of a “push-button” plan supposed to prepare the RN for snap elections, which ultimately failed to produce a full roster of credible candidates.

The far right outfit’s progress is undeniable, having advanced from just eight MPs soon after Mr. Macron’s first presidential win in 2017 to 143 today.

OPINION | ​Resurgent left: On the French elections, European politics

Greens and LFI leaders nevertheless called Tuesday for the RN to be shut out of key parliamentary posts.

“Every time we give them jobs, we increase their competence. It’s important not to give them jobs with responsibilities,” leading LFI lawmaker Mathilde Panot said.

“Today we represent 10 million French people with 143 MPs,” retorted RN representative Thomas Menage, calling the appeal “anti-democratic”.

As for Mr. Macron, he has sought to stay above the fray, planning for a trip to Washington for a NATO summit starting on Wednesday where allies may be in need of reassurance of France’s stability.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron takes a selfie photograph with supporters after casting his vote in the second round of France’s legislative election at a polling station in Le Touquet, northern France on July 7, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AFP

President Emmanuel Macron on July 8 was to start efforts to extract France from its most severe political uncertainty in decades after the left defeated the far right in elections with no group winning an absolute majority.

The outcome of the legislative elections, called by Mr. Macron three years ahead of schedule in a bid to reshape the political landscape, leaves France without any clear path to forming a new government three weeks before the Paris Olympics.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal is due to submit his resignation to Mr. Macron on July 8 but has also made clear he is ready to stay on in a caretaker capacity as weeks of political uncertainty loom.

The left is emerging as the biggest group in the new parliament but has yet to even agree on a figure who it would want to be the new Prime Minister.

The unprecedented situation is taking shape just as Macron is due to be out of the country for most of the week, taking part in the NATO summit in Washington.

“Is this the biggest crisis of the Fifth Republic?” that began in 1958, asked Gael Sliman, president of the Odoxa polling group.

“Emmanuel Macron wanted clarification with the dissolution, now we are in total uncertainty. A very thick fog.”

Divided parliament

After winning the June 30 first round by a clear margin, the results were a major disappointment for the far-right National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen, even if her forces are set to boast about their biggest ever contingent in parliament.

Macron’s centrist alliance will have dozens fewer members of parliament, but held up better than expected and could even end in second.

The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) — formed last month after Macron called snap elections — brought the previously deeply divided Socialists, Greens, Communists and the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) together in one camp.

Projections by major polling agencies showed the NFP set to be the largest bloc in the new National Assembly with 177 to 198 seats, Macron’s alliance on 152 to 169 seats and the RN on 135 to 145 seats.

That would put no group near the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority and it remains unclear how a new government could be formed.

Macron, who has yet to speak in public about the projections, is calling for “prudence and analysis of the results”, said an aide, asking not to be named.

LFI lawmaker Clementine Autain called on the NFP alliance to gather on Monday to decide on a suitable candidate for prime minister.

In key individual battles, Le Pen’s sister Marie-Caroline narrowly lost out on being a lawmaker, but former president Francois Hollande will return to frontline politics as a Socialist member of parliament.

‘Muddle’

Firebrand leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of LFI and the controversial figurehead of the NFP coalition, demanded that the left be allowed to form a government.

Only one week ago, some polls had indicated the RN could win an absolute majority with Le Pen’s 28-year-old lieutenant Jordan Bardella becoming prime minister.

Instead, he expressed fury.

Bardella dubbed the local electoral pacts that saw the left and centrists avoid splitting the anti-RN vote as an “alliance of dishonour”.

He said it had thrown “France into the arms of Jean-Luc Melenchon’s extreme left”.

Le Pen, who wants to launch a fourth bid for the presidency in 2027, declared: “The tide is rising. It did not rise high enough this time, but it continues to rise and, consequently, our victory has only been delayed.”

The first round saw more than 200 tactical-voting pacts between centre and left-wing candidates in seats to attempt to prevent the RN winning an absolute majority.

This has been hailed as a return of the anti-far right “Republican Front” first summoned when Le Pen’s father Jean-Marie faced Jacques Chirac in the run-off of 2002 presidential elections.

The question for France now is if this alliance of last resort can support a stable government, dogged by a still substantial RN bloc in parliament led by Le Pen herself as she prepares a 2027 presidential bid.

Risk analysis firm Eurasia Group said there was “no obvious governing majority” in the new parliament.

“It may take many weeks to resolve the muddle while the present government manages current business.”

Paris:

President Emmanuel Macron has avoided his nightmare scenario of the far right coming to power in France but still faces an unprecedented challenge steering his country and the remainder of his presidency through an uncertain future.

Macron’s centrist forces performed more strongly than expected in the legislative elections, projected to come in second behind the resurgent left, with the far right that won the first round on June 30 in only third place.

Yet as he prepares to fly to the United States for a NATO summit in Washington, he now faces a number of headaches including a left that now believes it has a mandate to govern, his own unpopularity, and open dissent among some of his most influential allies.

There is still palpable anger among Macron’s allies over his decision to call snap legislative elections three years ahead of time after his party was trounced in EU Parliament elections last month.

The president argued that a “clarification” was needed in French politics.

“The decision to dissolve the National Assembly, which was supposed to be a moment of clarification, has instead led to uncertainty,” his former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe said Sunday in an unusually sharp barb.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who said he would offer his resignation Monday but was also prepared to stay on, said in an extraordinary show of dissent after the election that he “did not choose this dissolution”.

‘The question now’

The government’s strategy of employing a so-called Republican Front for the centre and left to team up to block the far right appears to have worked.

But the election will mark a turning point in Macron’s presidency with three years of his term still to run until 2027, with the very mixed new parliament inevitably becoming a far more important actor.

Macron appeared in no hurry on this occasion to make a rapid and theatrical decision, with an aide briefing media that the president preferred to analyse the full results before jumping to conclusions.

The president is confident “and is not going for a small majority”, the aide said. “The question now is who is going to govern and have a majority.”

Philippe raised the prospect of a broad coalition that would take in parties from right to left via the centre, but exclude the far-right National Rally (RN) and the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI).

So far the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) has not fractured even if the LFI’s firebrand figurehead Jean-Luc Melenchon is a constant source of tension.

Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne, who leads Macron’s party, ruled out that Melenchon “and a certain number of his allies” would govern France.

But Laurent Wauquiez, a senior figure among traditional right-wing lawmakers, who won his seat, appeared to rule out entering into any coalition with Macron.

‘Tide is rising’

Macron’s own popularity has hit such a low that he stayed totally out of the final week of the election campaign, not making a single comment in public as the vastly more popular Attal took the lead.

After voting Sunday he mingled with well-wishers in Le Touquet, but did not repeat his walk through the fashionable Channel resort in a bomber jacket and baseball cap as he did in the June 30 first round, seen as arrogant by some supporters. 

Political manoeuvring will intensify beneath him. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin, who won his seat, has made it clear he plans to be a leading voice in the new parliament, possibly in alliance with the faction of Philippe.

And while the far right was defeated in these elections, its three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen said she believed this would have no impact on her ambition to win the Elysee Palace in 2027.

“The tide is rising. It did not rise high enough this time, but it continues to rise and, consequently, our victory has only been delayed,” Le Pen said.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Paris:

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said on Sunday he will hand his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron on Monday morning, adding he will carry out his functions as long as required.

Attal made the comments after France’s left-wing New Popular Front coalition won the most seats in the second voting round of parliamentary elections, leading pollsters said on Sunday, putting them on track for an unexpected win over the far right National Rally (RN) party but short of an absolute majority in parliament.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Voters wait to enter a polling station at the Petit Poucet nursery school in the Vallee du Tir district of Noumea, in the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia, during the second round of France’s legislative elections on July 7, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Voting has begun in France on July 7 in pivotal runoff elections that could hand a historic victory to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally and its inward-looking, anti-immigrant vision — or produce a hung parliament and years of political deadlock.

French President Emmanuel Macron took a huge gamble in dissolving parliament and calling for the elections after his centrists were trounced in European elections on June 9.

The snap elections in this nuclear-armed nation will influence the war in Ukraine, global diplomacy and Europe’s economic stability, and they’re almost certain to undercut President Emmanuel Macron for the remaining three years of his presidency.

The first round on June 30 saw the largest gains ever for the anti-immigration, nationalist National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen.

Sunday’s vote determines which party controls the National Assembly and who will be prime minister. If support is further eroded for Macron’s weak centrist majority, he will be forced to share power with parties opposed to most of his pro-business, pro-European Union policies.

Racism and antisemitism have marred the electoral campaign, along with Russian cybercampaigns, and more than 50 candidates reported being physically attacked — highly unusual for France. The government is deploying 30,000 police on voting day.

The heightened tensions come while France is celebrating a very special summer: Paris is about to host exceptionally ambitious Olympic Games, the national soccer team reached the semifinal of the Euro 2024 championship, and the Tour de France is racing around the country alongside the Olympic torch.

Meanwhile, 49 million voters are in the midst of the country’s most important elections in decades.

France could have its first far-right government since the Nazi occupation in World War II if the National Rally wins an absolute majority and its 28-year-old leader Jordan Bardella becomes prime minister. The party came out on top in the previous week’s first-round voting, followed by a coalition of center-left, hard-left and Green parties, and Macron’s centrist alliance.

The outcome remains highly uncertain. Polls between the two rounds suggest that the National Rally may win the most seats in the 577-seat National Assembly but fall short of the 289 seats needed for a majority. That would still make history, if a party with historic links to xenophobia and downplaying the Holocaust, and long seen as a pariah, becomes France’s biggest political force.

If it wins the majority, Macron would be forced to share power in an awkward arrangement known in France as “cohabitation.”

Another possibility is that no party has a majority, resulting in a hung parliament. That could prompt Macron to pursue coalition negotiations with the center-left or name a technocratic government with no political affiliations.

Both would be unprecedented for modern France, and make it more difficult for the European Union’s No. 2 economy to make bold decisions on arming Ukraine, reforming labor laws or reducing its huge deficit. Financial markets have been jittery since Macron surprised even his closest allies in June by announcing snap elections after the National Rally won the most seats for France in European Parliament elections.

Many French voters, especially in small towns and rural areas, are frustrated with low incomes and a Paris political leadership seen as elitist and unconcerned with workers’ day-to-day struggles. National Rally has connected with those voters, often by blaming immigration for France’s problems, and has built up broad and deep support over the past decade.

Le Pen has softened many of the party’s positions — she no longer calls for quitting NATO and the EU — to make it more electable. But the party’s core far-right values remain. It wants a referendum on whether being born in France is enough to merit citizenship, to curb rights of dual citizens, and give police more freedom to use weapons.

The second-round voting began Saturday in France’s overseas territories from the South Pacific to the Caribbean, Indian Ocean and North Atlantic. The elections wrap up Sunday at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT) in mainland France. Initial polling projections are expected Sunday night, with early official results expected late Sunday and early Monday.

Regardless of what happens, Macron said he won’t step down and will stay president until his term ends in 2027.

Elections herald change in UK with a Labour landslide, but also France and Iran, while the campaign trail hits a shocking turn in the US- Should New Delhi worry about losing friends in high places and how will results change the geopolitical landscape for India?

Hello and Welcome to WorldView at The Hindu with me Suhasini Haidar

If 2024 is the year of elections, with 64 countries going to vote, then the past week is particularly interesting- with 4 of the world’s most prominent leaders watching results of their campaigns closely- US President Biden, Iranian Supreme Leader Khameini, French President Macron….and the biggest loser this week -UK PM Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

They were crushed in a landslide by the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer- that won the biggest mandate since Tony Blair and ended a 14 year-4 term run in office that saw 5 Conservative Prime Ministers from David Cameron to Rishi Sunak

The Labour Party leader Keir Starmer, a former Human Rights lawyer and prosecutor will now lead one of the strongest majorities in the UK Parliament. Another strong showing has come from the ultra-right Reform Party led by Nigel Farage- accused of outright bigotry and a very tough anti-immigration line- which will no doubt drive the new labour government.

What does the UK loss mean for India:

1. Loss of Sunak, Britain’s first Indian-Origin PM

2. The new government will take a different line on immigration – has promised to appoint special prosecutors to crack down illegal immigrants, and sign Returns agreements with countries to send back

3. Labour past policies troubling- and though Starmer has disavowed its past positions on Kashmir and Khalistan, the worries of many Labour MPs advocating anti-India stands remains

4. The India-UK FTA has been in the works for years has not been completed. While the Labour Party is committed to the FTA, the question is, will it reopen the chapters already negotiated. At an India Global Conference, Shadow Minister David Lammy was very optimistic of completing it soon.

Across the channel, France is also seeing a second round of parliamentary elections that may severely dent President Macron’s grip on governance. The elections, which have been called 3 years early were announced after Macron’s Centrist coalition was defeated badly in June’s European Parliament elections by the Right wing National Rally -Rassemblement National. In the first round, Macron’s party came 3rd to both the ultra right RN and the Leftist bloc that combines Socialists, Communists and the Green party. If the RN were to win it would be the first time a right wing party, once accused of being anti semitic and fascist would control the French parliament since world war 2.

What does the right surge mean for India

1. If Macron is weakened by the results, that may impact France India ties too- certainly Macron has been a major friend, stepped in to be Republic Day chief guest this year after US President declined, has signed a number of major agreements with India in past 5 yrs

2. Immigration- France had begun to take a more progressive look at immigration, bring in new policies for students, and make speaking French a more stringent clause

3. RN’s leader Marine Le Pen has advocated a France First economic policy, and while she has softened her anti-EU position, might make the trade negotiations with India that much more difficult

4. Legislative gridlock that could follow from a hung parliament will make every negotiation difficult at a time France and India has growing strategic ties, also on trade, nuclear and renewable energy and defence.

Next, an election we haven’t followed as closely perhaps- in Iran, which is going to polls after a shocking helicopter crash killed its President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister, also after conflict with Israel, and after the major anti-Hijab demonstrations. The first round of these elections had two startling outcomes- a very low turnout of 40%, which is being read as a boycott of polls by an overwhelming number of voters unhappy with the regime. And in the results of the first round, Masoud Pezeshkian, a surgeon who was the Minister of Health and seen as a reformist, one who has advocated more reconciliation with the west won more votes than Khamenei protégé Saeed Jalili, Iran’s former chief nuclear negotiator. 

Here’s what to watch out for in India:

1. A win for Khamenei’s choice Jalili would no doubt signal continuity, and the same policies that India forged with his predecessor- in terms of Chabahar

2. However, Jalili’s win would also mean a continuation of US sanctions on Iran, that are already a cause for worry for India

3. A reformist win could bring in some relief internally in terms of women’s rights -Pezeshkian had publicly criticised the regime for the death of women’s activist Mahsa Amini over not wearing the hijab

4. However, real power remains with the Supreme leader and clergy, so no major policy changes can be expected

Finally, while this election is still months away, the US campaign hit a dramatic note this week in the aftermath of a disastrous drubbing to US President Joseph Biden by former President Donald Trump- with many calling for 82-year-old Biden, who appeared infirm and incoherent, to step aside in favour of another candidate as polls show Trump far ahead. Biden is said to be considering his options, but is expected to make another show of strength, in interviews and hosting a mega NATO Summit with Indo-Pacific leaders as well as Ukraine President Zelenskyy next week.

 What does it mean for India?

1. India has dealt with both Biden and Trump, and strategic and defence ties have improved with both

2. However, the Biden administration is getting tougher on India’s Russia ties, and PM Modi’s visit to Moscow next week will be seen dimly

3. While Trump has been seen as softer on Russia in the past, he also brings unpredictability and open threats, of the kind seen with Iran sanctions, and India may have to make tough choices there

4. On the economy too, Trump will drive a harder deal

35. While Biden is seen as more problematic on the issue of human rights, and the ongoing Pannun case on alleged transnational repression by India

 WV Take: The larger theme from elections in UK, France, Iran, US is that economic distress, inflation are underlying issues for people everywhere, spurring democratic change. A resultant strengthening of conservative right wing values- including anti-immigration, xenophobia and racism is a larger worry, even as Indians continue to be amongst the largest groups of illegal immigrants to Europe and US. These will have a bearing on both bilateral ties and foreign policy in the future.

 WV Book recommendations:

1. Biographies of new UK PM- Keir Starmer: by Tom Baldwin and Red Knight: The Unauthorised Biography of Sir Keir Starmer by Michael A. Ashcroft

2. The Conservative Party After Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation Kindle Edition by Tim Bale

3. Great Britain?: The instant Sunday Times bestseller and must-read for the 2024 General Election Kindle Edition by Torsten Bell

4. Politics On the Edge: by Rory Stewart also co host of podcast The Rest is Politics

5. The Macron Régime: The Ideology of the New Right in France by Charles Devellennes

6. Revolutionary Iran : A History of the Islamic Republic by Michael Axworthy

Script and Presentation: Suhasini Haidar

Production: Gayatri Menon and Shibu Narayan

A campaigner pastes an election poster of French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) candidate Sandrine Chadournec (C) in Libourne, southwestern France on July 2, 2024, as part of the French legislative elections.
| Photo Credit: AFP

At least 200 candidates have stood down ahead of France’s runoff election as President Emmanuel Macron and a left-wing coalition seek to block the far right, an AFP tally showed on Tuesday.

On Sunday, France votes in the decisive final round of the snap legislative polls Mr. Macron called after his camp received a drubbing in European elections last month.

The rivals are hoping that tactical withdrawals to unify the vote ahead of the runoff will prevent the far-right National Rally party of Marine Le Pen winning an absolute majority of 289 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly.

Ahead of Tuesday’s 6:00 p.m. (1600 GMT) deadline for registration for the second round, at least 200 candidates had already dropped out, nearly all of them left-wing or members of Mr. Macron’s centrist camp, according to AFP.

Of the candidates who have decided to quit the race more than 110 are members of the left-wing New Popular Front and more than 70 represent Mr. Macron’s camp.

A far-right candidate also stood down over an old social media post of herself in a Nazi cap, a party official told local media.

The far-right party scored a victory in the June 30 first round with more than 10.6 million votes.

Just 76 lawmakers, almost all from the far right and left were elected outright in the first round.

The fate of the remaining 501 seats will be determined in the second round in run-offs between two or three remaining candidates.