Supporters of French far-left opposition party La France Insoumise (France Unbowed – LFI) react after partial results in the second round of the early French parliamentary elections at Place Stalingrad in Paris, France, on July 7, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

A coalition on the left that came together unexpectedly ahead of France’s snap elections won the most parliamentary seats in the vote, according to polling projections on Sunday. The surprise projections put President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance in second and the far right in third.

The lack of majority for any single alliance plunged France into political and economic turmoil. Final results are not expected until late Sunday or early Monday in the highly volatile snap election, which was called just four weeks ago in a huge gamble for Macron.

The deeply unpopular President lost control of Parliament, according to the projections. Marine Le Pen’s far right drastically increased the number of seats it holds in parliament but fell far short of expectations.

The snap legislative elections in this nuclear-armed nation and major economy will influence the war in Ukraine, global diplomacy and Europe’s economic stability.

France now faces the prospect of weeks of political machinations to determine who will be prime minister and lead the National Assembly. And President Macron faces the prospect of leading the country alongside a prime minister opposed to most of his domestic policies.

Also read | France registers voter turnout of 59.7%, highest in four decades

The projections, if confirmed by official counts expected later Sunday or early Monday, plunge a pillar of the European Union and its second-largest economy into intense uncertainty, with no clarity about who might partner with President Emmanuel Macron as prime minister in governing France.

The timing of France’s leap into the political unknown could hardly be worse: With the Paris Olympics opening in less than three weeks, the country will be grappling with domestic instability when the eyes of the world are upon it.

For 46-year-old Macron’s centrists, the legislative elections have turned into a fiasco. He stunned France, and many in his own government, by dissolving parliament’s lower house, the National Assembly, after the far right surged in French voting for the European elections.

President Macron argued that sending voters back to the ballot boxes would provide France with “clarification.” The president was gambling that with France’s fate in their hands, voters might shift from the far right and left and return to mainstream parties closer to the center — where Macron found much of the support that won him the presidency in 2017 and again in 2022. That, he hoped, would fortify his presidency for his remaining three years in office.

But rather than rally behind him, millions of voters on both the left and right of France’s increasingly polarized political landscape seized on his surprise decision as an opportunity to vent their anger and possibly sideline Macron, by saddling him with a parliament that could now largely be filled with lawmakers hostile both to him and, in particular, his pro-business policies.

Already in last weekend’s first round of balloting, voters massively backed candidates from the far-right National Rally, in even greater numbers than in voting for the European Parliament. A coalition on of parties on the left took second and his centrist alliance was a distant third.

A hung parliament with no single bloc coming close to getting the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the more powerful of France’s two legislative chambers, would be unknown territory for modern France and usher in political turmoil.

Unlike other countries in Europe that are more accustomed to coalition governments, France doesn’t have a tradition of lawmakers from rival political camps coming together to form a working majority.

The sharp polarization of French politics – especially in this torrid and quick campaign – is sure to complicate any coalition-building effort. Racism and antisemitism marred the electoral campaign, along with Russian disinformation campaigns, and more than 50 candidates reported being physically attacked — highly unusual for France. The government said it deployed 30,000 police for Sunday’s runoff vote – an indication of both the high stakes and concerns that a far-right victory, or even no clear win for any bloc, could trigger protests.

Any cobbled-together majority risks being fragile, vulnerable to no-confidence votes that could cause it to fall.

Prolonged instability could increase suggestions from his opponents that President Macron should cut short his second and last term. The French Constitution prevents him from dissolving parliament again in the next 12 months, barring that as a route to possibly give France greater clarity.

Paris, France:

Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party emerged ahead in the first round of France’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, exit polls showed, but the unpredictable final result will depend on days of horsetrading before next week’s run-off.

The RN was seen winning around 34% of the vote, exit polls from Ipsos, Ifop, OpinionWay and Elabe showed.

That was ahead of leftist and centrist rivals, including President Emmanuel Macron’s Together alliance, whose bloc was seen winning 20.5%-23%. The New Popular Front, a hastily assembled left-wing coalition, was projected to win around 29% of the vote, the exit polls showed.

The results from the high-turnout vote, which were in line with polls ahead of the election, provided little clarity on whether the anti-immigrant, eurosceptic RN will be able to form a government alongside the pro-EU Macron.

A week of political bargaining now lies ahead of the July 7 run-off. The final result will depend on how parties decide to join forces in each of France’s 577 constituencies for the second round. In the past, France’s centre-right and centre-left parties have teamed up to keep the RN from taking power, but that dynamic, called the “republican front” in France, is less certain than ever.

The French president’s decision this month to call snap elections plunged his country into political uncertainty, sent shockwaves around Europe and prompted a sell-off of French assets on financial markets.

Participation in Sunday’s vote was high, underlining how France’s rumbling political crisis has energised the electorate.

By 1500 GMT, turnout was nearly 60%, compared with 39.42% two years ago – the highest comparable turnout figures since the 1986 legislative vote, Ipsos France’s research director Mathieu Gallard said.

A longtime pariah, the RN is now closer to power than it has ever been. Le Pen has sought to detoxify a party known for racism and antisemitism, a tactic that has worked amid voter anger at Macron, the high cost of living and growing concerns over immigration.

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