In a development that has stunned most political observers, the New Popular Front (Nouveau Front Populaire, or NFP), a leftwing coalition, has won the most number of seats in France’s legislative elections that concluded on July 7. It secured 182 seats, defeating both President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance Ensemble (168), and the far-right National Rally (RN), which performed way below poll predictions, mustering only 143. With 289 needed for absolute majority in the 577-member National Assembly, and none of the three major political blocs close to this figure, France has been plunged into political uncertainty. But the country wasn’t even due for elections this year.

The whole chain of events began with the European Parliament elections in June. Marine Le Pen’s RN finished at the top with 31.37% of the votes, handing a crushing defeat to Mr. Macron’s Ensemble, which came a distant second with 14.60% votes. Mr. Macron responded to this setback by dissolving the National Assembly and calling snap polls. He justified his decision as intended to save France from being taken over by a resurgent far-right, ostensibly by forcing the French to choose between the moderates and those on the political extremes.

Many analysts, however, criticised his move as an impetuous gamble. The first round of the elections on June 30 seemed to vindicate the criticism. The RN won 33% of the votes, while the Macronists got just 21% — even less than what they secured in the first round in 2022. The NFP came second with 28%. Ahead of the run-off on July 7, exit polls predicted a comfortable win for the RN. But to everyone’s surprise, the leftwing bloc came first.

The NFP is a last-minute, hastily cobbled together coalition of four left-of-centre elements — the Socialists, the Greens, the Communists, and the hard-left France Unbowed of Jean-Luc Melenchon. The same four had come together to form the New Ecological and Social Popular Union (NUPES) ahead of the 2022 legislative elections, where they won 142 seats and denied Mr. Macron a majority. But NUPES broke up last October following Hamas’s surprise attack and Israel’s retaliatory invasion of Gaza. The fragmentation was triggered by Mr. Melenchon’s stand against describing the Hamas attack as “terrorist”, prompting the Socialists to quit the alliance.

Also Read | Resurgent left: On the French elections, European politics

Pressure from the ground

No one expected the perennially squabbling left parties to reunite so swiftly. But this time, the pressure for left unity was immense, and came from the ground up — from trade unions, citizens’ collectives, and civil society organisations. In the aftermath of the RN’s dominant performance in the European elections, and pollsters predicting a far-right victory in the election to come, thousands took to the streets, pressuring different sections of the French left to, in the words of Mr. Melenchon, “throw their resentments in the river” and stand together as a ‘republican dam’ against the destructive flood of fascism.

The very name ‘New Popular Front’ is a throwback to the Popular Front of 1936, the historic leftwing alliance led by socialist Prime Minister Leon Blum, which pushed back against fascism even as the rest of Europe crumbled before it. It is considered customary for the French Left to unite whenever the Republic is threatened by fascist forces. With victory for the RN a near certainty, the ex-NUPES parties worked overtime to negotiate a common platform, which became the NFP.

The results of the first round were encouraging for the alliance, as they finished second. But it wasn’t going to be enough to stop the RN from forming the government. Had it done so, it would have been the first time a far-right party came to power in France since the Vichy regime of the Second World War. But the NFP managed to avert this eventuality, thanks in large measure to the tactical understanding it reached with Macronists for the second round.

Invoking the notion of the ‘Republican dam’, both the NFP and Mr. Macron’s party withdrew more than 200 candidates from three-way contests to avoid splitting the anti-RN vote. While the NFP withdrew more than 130 candidates, about 80 Macronists stepped back, so that the run-offs became a two-way contest between the far-right and the rest. The strategy worked. Both Ensemble and the NFP did well while the RN’s performance slumped. The RN’s president, Jordan Bardella, complained bitterly about this tactic, calling it a “dishonourable alliance” that has “deprived the French people” of an RN victory.

When the results came out, Mr. Melenchon described them as a victory for the NFP and proclaimed that Mr. Macron should invite his alliance to form the new government. A minority government that forms issue-based coalitions is not unthinkable in France. There are constitutional provisions under which laws can be passed by decree. But Mr. Macron seems reluctant to work with a Prime Minister from the NFP, whose political programme is directly at odds with his own. Despite the sharp erosion in his party’s numbers, he has refused to accept Prime Minister Gabriel Attal’s resignation, asking him to temporarily continue in office. According to the Constitution, Mr. Macron, whose own term extends till 2027, cannot dissolve the Assembly and call for fresh elections at least for one year, or until June 2025.

‘Acts of rupture’

But the French Left are projecting the election results as both a defeat of the far-right and a mandate for an NFP government. The core of the NFP’s policy agenda is what they call “acts of rupture”, or a break from the status quo of Mr. Macron’s neoliberal economics. Weighted heavily by the priorities of its largest constituent, France Unbowed, the NFP’s ‘rupture’ programme tries to capture the spirit of the original Popular Front, which pioneered landmark pro-labour legislation such as paid vacations and 40-hour work weeks.

As per its policy programme, the NFP, if it comes to power, would immediately freeze the prices of essentials like food and gas, hike the minimum wage, and reverse Mr. Macron’s pension reform that increased the retirement age to 64. Subsequently, they would repeal Mr. Macron’s immigration law and reintroduce the wealth tax. On the foreign policy front, they will recognise Palestinian statehood and replace the idea of “unconditional support” for any nation with support for international rule of law.

As things stand, however, in order to form the government, the NFP may have to make several compromises, including junking the idea of Mr. Melenchon as Prime Minister. With influential sections of the French media, and Mr. Macron himself, likening a government at the mercy of Mr. Melenchon’s ‘far-left’ politics to be as dangerous, if not worse, than an RN regime, there is talk of a coalition being cobbled together from among the Macronist centrists and the moderates from the right as well as the left. But that won’t be easy as even the moderates in the NFP camp would find it difficult to walk away from the “rupture” agenda.

With Mr. Macron under no deadline to name a new Prime Minister, the messy political scenario may not resolve itself before the Olympics, the nation’s top priority at the moment, are over. For now, the French Left are basking in their unforeseen success in halting the far-right juggernaut in its tracks — an achievement that continues to elude mainstream political parties across much of Europe.

A shock election win for France’s leftist alliance has reinforced wariness among investors who had already braced for the risk of political deadlock and a policy paralysis that’s unlikely to improve the country’s creaking public finances.

The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance won the most seats in Sunday’s election, but fell far short of an absolute majority, a big surprise after Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) led opinion polls.

France, at the centre of the euro project and the bloc’s second biggest economy, still faces a hung parliament and taxing negotiations to form a government as markets had already anticipated – just with the left in pole position, rather than the far-right.

The risk premium, or spread, for holding France’s debt over Germany’s was at 65 basis points on Monday, a touch lower from Friday. It remains below the 12-year high hit in June at 85 bps.

Still, that gap is not expected to tighten again rapidly with concern fixed on what France’s new political climate means for its stretched public finances that have left it facing European Union disciplinary measures.

Debt stood at 110.6% of output in 2023.

“For any budget to be passed in the new assembly, probably at the margin some fiscal loosening is required to get a compromise,” said Kevin Zhao, head of global sovereign and currency at UBS Asset Management, which manages $1.7 trillion in assets.

Market relief proved tentative on Monday. France’s main CAC 40 stocks index, down 3.7% since Macron called the election, rose as much as 0.8% on Monday then gave up all its gain.

Shares in France’s three biggest lenders – BNP Paribas , Societe Generale and Credit Agricole – which have dropped as much as 9.8% since June 9, also reversed earlier gains and were down 0.4%-1.2% at 1418 GMT.

Banks had been hard hit in the run-up to the vote on concerns that higher political uncertainty would translate into increased economic risks and fears of possible windfall taxes.

With the left more than 100 seats short of an absolute majority and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist grouping in second place, a hung parliament was still seen as the best outcome for investors in French assets, with it expected to limit the left’s spending plans and avert a potential budget-driven market crisis.

The NFP’s plans include scrapping Macron’s pension reform raising the minimum wage and capping the prices of key goods.

It says the costs of its program would be offset by measures including tax increases.

But some investors had deemed an NFP absolute majority a bigger threat to markets than the RN, as the left alliance has said it doesn’t plan to reduce France’s high budget deficit.

“When you look at the composition of the parliament, the bar for the far-left to start doing anything market unfriendly is very, very high,” said Gabriele Foa, portfolio manager at Algebris Investments, noting that the more moderate Socialists won a sizable share of the NFP seats.

Possibilities for a new government include the NFP forming a minority government, Macron peeling off Socialists and Greens from the NFP to isolate Jean-Luc Melenchon’s far-left France Unbowed for a coalition with his own bloc, or a technocratic government.

NO RESPITE

Still, a hung parliament was not seen by investors as good news for France’s public finances and investors expected the country’s budget deficit – at 5.5% of output last year – to stay elevated.

Melenchon said the NFP would execute its programme, while Socialist leader Olivier Faure said Mr. Macron’s pension reform must be cancelled.

S&P Global Ratings warned on Monday that France’s credit rating, which it recently downgraded, would come under pressure if economic growth falls short of projections or the budget deficit cannot be reduced.

Analysts do not expect the French/German bond spread to return to the roughly 50 bps level seen before Macron called the election.

“To be able to step (back into) French debt, will mean that we have guarantees from the government that they are taking good decisions to restore the fiscal and budgetary balances,” said Matthieu de Clermont, head of insurance and regulatory strategies at Allianz Global Investors.

“I’m not sure we’ll get that any time soon.”

Some investors said the French-German spread could widen again if uncertainty drags on, raising the cost for France to borrow on international bond markets relative to its neighbours, potentially increasing pressure on the budget.

“The biggest risk other than near-term headlines is what happens with the EDP and negotiations with the European Commission,” said Schroders fund manager James Ringer, referring to the EU’s budgetary discipline measures.

Investors remained cautious on French assets as they said it was too early to gauge what a new government would look like. The risk of another election in a year’s time is not ruled out.

“It is probably going to take weeks, if not months, before Macron and others sort out their alliances.” said Anders Persson, chief investment officer, head of global fixed income at Nuveen, which manages $1.2 trillion in assets.

He remains underweight French government bonds.

People gather at Republique plaza in a protest against the far-right on July 3, 2024 in Paris
| Photo Credit: AP

French voters face a decisive choice on July 7 in the run-off of snap parliamentary elections that could see the country’s first far-right government since the World War II Nazi occupation — or no party emerging with a majority at all. In Sunday’s first round, the National Rally came first with an estimated one-third of the votes. The New Popular Front coalition that included the center-left, green and left forces polled close to 29% of the vote and came in second place, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance.

If the National Rally or the Left alliance gets a majority, Mr. Macron will be forced to appoint a Prime Minister belonging to a new majority. In such a situation — called “cohabitation” in France — the government would implement policies that diverge from the President’s plan. The rise of a far-right party in France has not been sudden. When Mr. Macron was re-elected in 2022, his vote share did not increase in any department. In contrast, his challenger from the far-right National Rally Marine Le Pen’s vote share rose across the country, resulting in the far-right’s best-ever performance. More importantly, the rise of the Right in European politics is not limited to France.

Also Read | The far-right swing in European Parliament elections | Explained

In last month’s European Parliamentary Elections, right-wing and far-right parties achieved their best performance in the legislative body’s history. The far-right European Conservatives and Reformists Group and the Identity and Democracy Group together increased their tally from 118 to 131 seats in the Parliament, while the left-Greens’ seat share was reduced to 53 from 71.

Chart 1 | The chart shows the vote share secured by right-leaning parties in the national-level polls of the U.K. and select countries in the European Union. 

Chart appears incomplete? Click to remove AMP mode

The vote share of right-leaning parties is increasing at varying degrees of pace in each country. For instance, the vote share of the National Rally increased from just 4% in 2007 to 19% in 2022. The German party, Alternative for Germany, recorded over 10% vote share in the last two elections, with the Sweden Democrats vote share increasing from 2% in 2006 to 20% in 2022 in Swedish polls.

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Given that most such parties have an anti-immigrant stance, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights on Wednesday called for vigilance, citing narratives that dehumanise migrants and asylum seekers. One other impact may be on the nations’ views about NATO, and the ongoing-war between Russia and Ukraine.

Also Read | Comment: The spectre of neo-fascism that is haunting Europe

Polls by Pew Survey indicate that in some European countries, positive views about NATO and confidence in Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy have started to decline. In contrast, slight increases in favourable views towards Russia and confidence in Russian President Vladimir Putin were recorded across many European countries in 2024 compared to a year before.

Table 2 | The table lists responses to four questions — Q1: % who have a favourable opinion of NATO; Q2: % who have a favourable view of Russia; Q3: % who have confidence in Mr. Putin to do the right thing; Q4: % who have confidence in Mr. Zelenskyy to do the right thing. The percentage point change in 2024 from 2023 is also listed.

According to Pew Survey, in several European countries, people who have a favourable view of a right-wing populist party in their country see Russia and Mr. Putin more positively than people with unfavourable views of those parties.

Also Read | Turning inward: The Hindu’s Editorial on the rise of far-right parties in Europe

While their support dropped in 2022 and 2023, confidence in Russia and Mr. Putin has climbed back up in 2024 as shown in Chart 3.

Chart 3 | The chart shows the share who have confidence in Russian President, Vladimir Putin, among supporters of right-wing parties.

Source: Pew Research Centre and ParlGov

Paris:

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said on Sunday he will hand his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron on Monday morning, adding he will carry out his functions as long as required.

Attal made the comments after France’s left-wing New Popular Front coalition won the most seats in the second voting round of parliamentary elections, leading pollsters said on Sunday, putting them on track for an unexpected win over the far right National Rally (RN) party but short of an absolute majority in parliament.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Supporters of French far-left opposition party La France Insoumise (France Unbowed – LFI) react after partial results in the second round of the early French parliamentary elections at Place Stalingrad in Paris, France, on July 7, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

A coalition on the left that came together unexpectedly ahead of France’s snap elections won the most parliamentary seats in the vote, according to polling projections on Sunday. The surprise projections put President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance in second and the far right in third.

The lack of majority for any single alliance plunged France into political and economic turmoil. Final results are not expected until late Sunday or early Monday in the highly volatile snap election, which was called just four weeks ago in a huge gamble for Macron.

The deeply unpopular President lost control of Parliament, according to the projections. Marine Le Pen’s far right drastically increased the number of seats it holds in parliament but fell far short of expectations.

The snap legislative elections in this nuclear-armed nation and major economy will influence the war in Ukraine, global diplomacy and Europe’s economic stability.

France now faces the prospect of weeks of political machinations to determine who will be prime minister and lead the National Assembly. And President Macron faces the prospect of leading the country alongside a prime minister opposed to most of his domestic policies.

Also read | France registers voter turnout of 59.7%, highest in four decades

The projections, if confirmed by official counts expected later Sunday or early Monday, plunge a pillar of the European Union and its second-largest economy into intense uncertainty, with no clarity about who might partner with President Emmanuel Macron as prime minister in governing France.

The timing of France’s leap into the political unknown could hardly be worse: With the Paris Olympics opening in less than three weeks, the country will be grappling with domestic instability when the eyes of the world are upon it.

For 46-year-old Macron’s centrists, the legislative elections have turned into a fiasco. He stunned France, and many in his own government, by dissolving parliament’s lower house, the National Assembly, after the far right surged in French voting for the European elections.

President Macron argued that sending voters back to the ballot boxes would provide France with “clarification.” The president was gambling that with France’s fate in their hands, voters might shift from the far right and left and return to mainstream parties closer to the center — where Macron found much of the support that won him the presidency in 2017 and again in 2022. That, he hoped, would fortify his presidency for his remaining three years in office.

But rather than rally behind him, millions of voters on both the left and right of France’s increasingly polarized political landscape seized on his surprise decision as an opportunity to vent their anger and possibly sideline Macron, by saddling him with a parliament that could now largely be filled with lawmakers hostile both to him and, in particular, his pro-business policies.

Already in last weekend’s first round of balloting, voters massively backed candidates from the far-right National Rally, in even greater numbers than in voting for the European Parliament. A coalition on of parties on the left took second and his centrist alliance was a distant third.

A hung parliament with no single bloc coming close to getting the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the more powerful of France’s two legislative chambers, would be unknown territory for modern France and usher in political turmoil.

Unlike other countries in Europe that are more accustomed to coalition governments, France doesn’t have a tradition of lawmakers from rival political camps coming together to form a working majority.

The sharp polarization of French politics – especially in this torrid and quick campaign – is sure to complicate any coalition-building effort. Racism and antisemitism marred the electoral campaign, along with Russian disinformation campaigns, and more than 50 candidates reported being physically attacked — highly unusual for France. The government said it deployed 30,000 police for Sunday’s runoff vote – an indication of both the high stakes and concerns that a far-right victory, or even no clear win for any bloc, could trigger protests.

Any cobbled-together majority risks being fragile, vulnerable to no-confidence votes that could cause it to fall.

Prolonged instability could increase suggestions from his opponents that President Macron should cut short his second and last term. The French Constitution prevents him from dissolving parliament again in the next 12 months, barring that as a route to possibly give France greater clarity.

A campaigner pastes an election poster of French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) candidate Sandrine Chadournec (C) in Libourne, southwestern France on July 2, 2024, as part of the French legislative elections.
| Photo Credit: AFP

At least 200 candidates have stood down ahead of France’s runoff election as President Emmanuel Macron and a left-wing coalition seek to block the far right, an AFP tally showed on Tuesday.

On Sunday, France votes in the decisive final round of the snap legislative polls Mr. Macron called after his camp received a drubbing in European elections last month.

The rivals are hoping that tactical withdrawals to unify the vote ahead of the runoff will prevent the far-right National Rally party of Marine Le Pen winning an absolute majority of 289 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly.

Ahead of Tuesday’s 6:00 p.m. (1600 GMT) deadline for registration for the second round, at least 200 candidates had already dropped out, nearly all of them left-wing or members of Mr. Macron’s centrist camp, according to AFP.

Of the candidates who have decided to quit the race more than 110 are members of the left-wing New Popular Front and more than 70 represent Mr. Macron’s camp.

A far-right candidate also stood down over an old social media post of herself in a Nazi cap, a party official told local media.

The far-right party scored a victory in the June 30 first round with more than 10.6 million votes.

Just 76 lawmakers, almost all from the far right and left were elected outright in the first round.

The fate of the remaining 501 seats will be determined in the second round in run-offs between two or three remaining candidates.

In a separate survey, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) is seen as the most trustworthy when it comes to managing the economy
| Photo Credit: AFP

France’s far right National Rally (RN) party and its allies are seen leading the first round of the country’s parliamentary elections with 35.5% of the vote, according to a poll published on June 23.

The Ipsos survey — conducted for Le Parisien newspaper and Radio France on June 19-20 — showed the left-wing New Popular Front (NPF) alliance in second place with 29.5% of the vote.

Also Read | Rassemblement National: France’s rally towards the right

French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance was seen in third place, winning 19.5% of votes.

The turnout rate is seen at between 60% and 64%, which would be much higher than the 47.5% seen at the last general election in June 2022.

The RN’s lead in polls ahead of the election that will take place in two rounds, on June 30 and July 7, is unlikely to win the party an absolute majority. Mr. Macron called the ballot after his alliance’s crushing defeat at EU elections earlier this month.

In a separate Ipsos survey, published by the Financial Times, the National Rally is seen as the most trustworthy when it comes to managing the economy and public finances.

According to the survey, 25% of respondents trust Marine Le Pen’s RN the most to take the right decisions on economic issues, versus 22% for the New Popular Front and 20% for Mr. Macron’s alliance.