Oil pump jack is seen in front of displayed Israeli flag in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

A protracted Israel-Hamas conflict could spur oil prices beyond India’s comfort zone and even if the government holds retail fuel prices ahead of critical elections, wholesale prices may spike and a higher import bill could pressure the rupee, according to experts.

Brent crude oil prices rose over 3% on Monday, crossing $87 a barrel even as equity markets around the world, including India, came under pressure as investors turned risk-averse and rushed to safe haven assets like gold.

Fears of a wider conflict between Israel and Hamas not only pulled down the NSE Nifty 0.72% or 141.2 points to 19,512.4, but also dragged trading volumes on the NSE to “the lowest in many weeks”, said Deepak Jasani, head of retail research at HDFC Securities.

Broad market indices fell more than the Nifty even as the advance-decline ratio fell sharply to 0.28:1, he added, stressing that the conflict is the latest negative trigger for markets that are already fretting about macroeconomic uncertainties in Europe and China, hawkish central banks and rising oil prices.

Also read: Israel-Palestine conflict LIVE updates on October 9

Beyond the short-term effect on markets, Bank of Baroda chief economist Madan Sabnavis said that if the war persists for even a fortnight or more, the oil dynamics will change. Crude oil prices going beyond $90 a barrel would pose trouble for the world economy as well as India.

“Iran joining the fray can affect the sea routes and push up transport and insurance costs. Higher crude prices will distort our balance of trade and current account deficit, thus putting pressure on the rupee,” Mr. Sabnavis noted.

For the government, there could be fiscal implications. With elections looming in several States and for the Lok Sabha in 2024, raising fuel prices may be an unlikely option, but higher costs will have to be absorbed either by oil marketing firms or the exchequer.

“Retail inflation can still be controlled by the government if it chooses to keep fuel prices unchanged. But wholesale price inflation will increase for sure. Some airlines have already increased fares after ATF price hikes, which is also inflationary,” the economist said.

Export earnings could also be hit as Israel buys around $5.5-6 billion of refined petroleum products a year from India.

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Representational image of crude oil barrels ready to be transported.
| Photo Credit: AP

The government has cut the windfall profit tax on crude oil produced in the country while the levy on exports of diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) has been hiked, an official notification said.

The tax, levied in the form of special additional excise duty or SAED, on domestically produced crude oil was reduced to ₹6,700 per tonne from ₹7,100 a tonne.

SAED on the export of diesel was increased to ₹6 per litre from ₹5.50 a litre and on jet fuel or ATF to ₹4 per litre from ₹2, the notification said.

SAED on export of petrol will continue to be zero.

The new tax rates came into effect from Saturday, the order dated September 1, said.

India first imposed windfall profit taxes on July 1 last year, joining a growing number of nations that tax supernormal profits of energy companies. At that time, export duties of ₹6 per litre ($12 per barrel) each were levied on petrol and ATF and ₹13 a litre ($26 a barrel) on diesel.

A ₹23,250 per tonne ($40 per barrel) windfall profit tax on crude oil produced by companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) was also levied.

The tax rates are reviewed every fortnight based on average oil prices in the previous two weeks.

A windfall tax is levied on domestic crude oil if rates of the global benchmark rise above $75 per barrel. Export of diesel, ATF and petrol attract the levy if product cracks (or margins) rise above $20 per barrel.

Product cracks or margins are the difference between crude oil (raw material) and finished petroleum products.

International crude oil prices averaged $86.43 per barrel in August, up from $80.37 in the preceding month and $74.93 a barrel in June.

The levy on domestic crude oil dropped to nil in the first half of April as international crude oil prices fell but was back in the second half in step with a rise in rates.

Levy on diesel became nil in April but the levy was brought back in August. Levy on ATF became nil in March and was brought back in second half of August.

The export tax on petrol was scrapped in the very first review.

Crude oil pumped out of the ground and from below the seabed is refined and converted into fuels like petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF).

Reliance Industries Ltd, which operates the world’s largest single-location oil refinery complex at Jamnagar in Gujarat, and Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy are primary exporters of fuel in the country.