With the headquarters of the ruling party burning in the back, supporters of Niger’s ruling junta celebrate in Niger after a successful coup.
| Photo Credit: Fatahoulaye Hassane Midou

On August 30, Gabon’s president Ali Bongo Ondimba was ousted after mutinous soldiers launched a coup against his government. This comes after a coup in Niger a couple months back.

African nations have seen 220 coup attempts since 1950. Globally, 490 coup attempts were made during this period. So, Africa accounts for 44.8% for all coup attempts.

Of all African countries, Sudan has seen the most coups since 1950. In this period, the country saw 17 coup attempts.

There is a decreasing trend in coups worldwide. Data collected by U.S. researchers Jonathan M Powell and Clayton L Thyne on coups from 1950 to July, 2023 July shows that from a high of 12.3 coups per year on average between 1960 and 69, the figure fell to 2.44 for the decade 2010 – 19.

However, Africa stands out. In the 1950s, most coups occurred in Latin America. On an average, 4.1 coups happened in this region per year in this decade. In Africa, the figure was at 0.5. In the 2010s, Latin America saw no coup attempts, while Africa saw 1.7 per year on average. This is still lower than the 1950s average, but the highest among other regions for the 2010s.

After 2020, we see an uptick in total coup attempts. Four years – 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 (till July) – saw 14 coup attempts in total. This is against the 22 total coup attempts recorded in the whole decade between 2010 to 2019. In 2021 alone, seven coup attempts were recorded, the most since 2012. Six of them were in Africa

Not always a success

As per Powell and Thyne’s definition, a successful coup is one where the chief executive in power remains unseated for at least a week after the coup. Of the 490 coups that Powell and Thyne have recorded, 244 coups succeeded and 246 failed. In Africa, an exactly equal number of coups have failed and succeeded — 110 each. Since the 1980s, the number of successful coups have been lesser than failed coups. The 2020-23 period is an exception, with nine successful coups and five failed ones.

Why do coups happen in the first place? Holger Albrecht from the University of Alabama and Ferdinand Eibl from King’s College, London have studied who starts military coups and what their incentives might be. They stated that measures like increased military spending might discourage top-ranking military officers from starting coups. In the case of combat-level officers, they noted that increased social spending that reflects on their individual welfare might be an effective coup-proofing measure.

Also read |Explained: The coups in West Africa and the regional response

Some researchers say that the pandemic may have had an effect on the economy of countries, exacerbating public dissatisfaction with the ruling governments. Islamist insurgencies in the region add fuel to the flames, leading to coups against governments that cannot or will not tackle terrorists.

File photo of General Brice Oligui Nguema.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Gabon’s new military leader was sworn in as the head of state on September 4 less than a week after ousting the President whose family had ruled the Central African nation for more than five decades.

Gen. Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, took the oath in the presidential palace in front of a packed, boisterous room of government officials, military and local leaders in Gabon’s capital, Libreville. Gen. Oligui is a cousin of the ousted President Ali Bongo Ondimba, served as a bodyguard to his late father and is head of the republican guard, an elite military unit.

Speaking to applause and standing ovations Monday, Gen. Oligui said the military had seized power without bloodshed and promised to return power to the people by organizing free, transparent and credible elections.

“With the new government, made up of experienced people, we’re going to give everyone a chance to hope,” he said.

The mutinous soldiers who toppled Bongo last week said he risked leading the country into chaos and they then “unanimously” designated Gen. Oligui president of the transitional committee. Mr. Bongo, who had been president for 14 years, was ousted hours after being declared the winner of a vote that was widely seen as rife with irregularities and lacking transparency.

The speedy swearing-in of Gen. Oligui will create perceptions of legitimacy and consolidate his power to deter potential opponents from challenging his rule, said Maja Bovcon, senior analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, a risk assessment firm.

“It is also likely intended as a means to restore investor confidence by conveying the message that he will not waste time in returning to business-as-usual and democratic rules,” she said. However, the fact that he plans to rewrite the constitution and electoral code means that the transition period will likely take months, if not years.

Mr. Bongo had served two terms since coming to power in 2009 after the death of his father, who ruled the country for 41 years, and there was widespread discontent with his family’s reign. Another group of mutinous soldiers attempted a coup in 2019 but was quickly overpowered.

Nine members of the Bongo family, meanwhile, are under investigation in France, and some face preliminary charges of embezzlement, money laundering and other forms of corruption, according to Sherpa, a French NGO dedicated to accountability. Investigators have linked the family to more than $92 million in properties in France, including two villas in Nice, the group says.

The idea of a long transition isn’t something that appeared to bother Gabonese who attended the inauguration Thursday.

“We are turning the page of 55 years of an oligarchy. For Gabon it is a new start, the end of a one political party governance without real benefits for the Gabonese people,” said Desire Ename publisher for a local media outlet. It would be acceptable for the junta to transition within three years, he said.

Gabon’s opposition candidate, Albert Ondo Ossa, wouldn’t comment on the inauguration but told The Associated Press last week that the government needed to return to constitutional rule and he didn’t consider the president’s ousting to be a coup but rather a “palace revolution” in order to continue the Bongo’s family’s reign.

The former French colony is a member of OPEC, but its oil wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few — and nearly 40% of Gabonese aged 15 to 24 were out of work in 2020, according to the World Bank. Its oil export revenue was $6 billion in 2022, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Gabonese President Ali Bongo Ondimba casts his vote at a polling station during the presidential election in Libreville, on August 26, 2023
| Photo Credit: via Reuters

Mutinous soldiers in Gabon said Wednesday they were overturning the results of a presidential election that was to extend the Bongo family’s 55-year hold on power.

The central African country’s election committee announced that President Ali Bongo Ondimba, 64, had won the election with 64% of the vote early Wednesday morning. Within minutes, gunfire was heard in the center of the capital, Libreville.

Explained | What led to the coup in Niger? Does it follow a wider pattern in the Sahel?

A dozen uniformed soldiers appeared on state television later the same morning and announced that they had seized power.

The soldiers intended to “dissolve all institutions of the republic,” said a spokesman for the group, whose members were drawn from the gendarme, the republican guard and other elements of the security forces.

The coup attempt came about one month after mutinous soldiers in Niger seized power from the democratically elected government, and is the latest in a series of coups that have challenged governments with ties to France, the region’s former coloniser.

Unlike Niger and two other West African countries run by military juntas, Gabon hasn’t been wracked by jihadi violence and had been seen as relatively stable.

In his annual Independence Day speech August 17, Mr. Bongo said “While our continent has been shaken in recent weeks by violent crises, rest assured that I will never allow you and our country Gabon to be hostages to attempts at destabilization. Never.”

Anti-France sentiment

At a time when anti-France sentiment is spreading in many former colonies, the French-educated Bongo met President Emmanuel Macron in Paris in late June and shared photos of them shaking hands.

The coup’s leaders vowed to respect “Gabon’s commitments to the national and international community.”

Mr. Bongo was seeking a third term in elections this weekend. He served two terms since coming to power in 2009 after the death of his father, Omar Bongo, who ruled the country for 41 years. Another group of mutinous soldiers attempted a coup in January 2019, while Mr. Bongo was in Morocco recovering from a stroke, but they were quickly overpowered.

In the election, Mr. Bongo faced an opposition coalition led by economics professor and former education minister Albert Ondo Ossa, whose surprise nomination came a week before the vote.

There were concerns about post-election violence, due to deep-seated grievances among the population of some 2.5 million. Nearly 40% of Gabonese ages 15-24 were out of work in 2020, according to the World Bank.

After last week’s vote, the Central African nation’s Communications Minister, Rodrigue Mboumba Bissawou, announced a nightly curfew from 7 p.m. to 6 a.m., and said internet access was being restricted indefinitely to quell disinformation and calls for violence.

Every vote held in Gabon since the country’s return to a multi-party system in 1990 has ended in violence. Clashes between government forces and protesters following the 2016 election killed four people, according to official figures. The opposition said the death toll was far higher.

Fearing violence, many people in the capital went to visit family in other parts of the country before the election or left Gabon altogether. Others stockpiled food or bolstered security in their homes.