Cairo:

The Palestinian operator group Hamas will likely replace Yahya Sinwar with a new political leader based outside Gaza while his brother – Mohammad Sinwar – is expected to assume a bigger role directing the war against Israel in the territory, experts say.

In its leadership deliberations, Hamas must consider not only the preferences of its main backer – Iran – but also the interests of the Gulf Arab state of Qatar, where all the main candidates to take over as politburo chief currently reside.

Sinwar, a mastermind of the October 7, 2023 attack that ignited the devastating Gaza war, was killed by Israeli forces in a gunbattle on Wednesday — the second time in less than three months that Hamas has lost its top leader.

Its previous chief, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Iran in July almost certainly by Israel.

When Sinwar replaced him, he fused together both the military and political leadership in Gaza, but that does not appear likely this time around.

After more than a year of ferocious Israeli attacks that have pounded Hamas, killed thousands of its fighters and eliminated senior figures both inside and out of Gaza, it is not clear how the Islamist group will emerge from this latest blow.

Sinwar’s deputy Khalil Al-Hayya, who is viewed as a potential successor, struck a defiant note on Friday, saying Israeli hostages would not be returned until Israeli troops withdrew from Gaza and the war ended.

Hamas has a history of quickly and efficiently replacing its fallen leaders, with its top decision-making body, the Shura Council, tasked with naming a new head.

The Shura Council represents all Hamas members in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Israeli prisons and the Palestinian community, meaning the new leader should have the authority to enter ceasefire talks even if he is not in Gaza, where Hamas gunmen still hold dozens of Israelis hostage.

Besides Hayya, who is Hamas’ chief negotiator, the other main leadership contenders are Khaled Meshaal, Haniyeh’s predecessor, and Mohammad Darwish, a little-known figure who chairs the Shura Council, according to analysts and a Hamas source.

Hamas will need to notify Qatar, which has played a major role in rounds of so far fruitless ceasefire talks, and other regional capitals ahead of its decision, the source said.

Dividing Duties

Ashraf Abouelhoul, an expert on Palestinian affairs, expected Sinwar’s responsibilities to be split between two roles – one overseeing military affairs and another running the political office, responsible for international contacts and shaping policies.

“Iran is Hamas strongest ally, which supports the group with money and weapons, and their blessing is key to who becomes Sinwar’s successor,” said Abouelhoul, managing editor of the state-owned newspaper Al-Ahram in Egypt.

He expected Hamas to stick by core demands in future ceasefire talks, chiefly that Israeli forces withdraw from Gaza and stop the war. But it could show more flexibility on some conditions, such as the details of any deal swapping Israeli hostages for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared Sinwar’s killing a milestone but that the war is not yet over, saying fighting would continue until the hostages are released.

Hamas was founded in 1987 and is a branch of the Sunni Islamist Muslim Brotherhood movement. Its decisions are usually taken through consensus in Hamas institutions.

With Sinwar dead, the Hamas leadership for Gaza has temporarily passed to his Qatar-based deputy, Hayya.

But the ongoing war and communication difficulties might impose limits on just how much day-to-day contact Hayya can have with men on the ground, leaving the armed wing – the Qassam Brigades – in the driving seat, experts say.

A Hamas source said Hayya was expected to encounter no problems exercising his role as “de facto Gaza leader”. The source noted that Hayya had maintained good relations with the military wing and had been close to both Sinwar and Haniyeh.

Akram Attallah, a Palestinian political analyst, said he expected the armed wing to respect Hayya’s authority – even from afar. He also expected Mohammad Sinwar to emerge as a more significant figure in the armed wing and in Hamas in general.

A veteran commander of the Qassam Brigades, Mohammad Sinwar has seldom appeared in public, has long been on Israel’s most-wanted list and has survived several attempts on his life, Hamas sources said.

Hamas-led gunmen killed 1,200 people and abducted another 250 during the Oct. 7 attack, according to Israeli tallies. This prompted an Israeli offensive which, according to Palestinian authorities, has killed more than 42,000 Palestinians, laid waste to Gaza, and driven nearly all its population from their homes.

Sinwar’s appointment in August was seen as both a show of defiance and internal unity by Hamas.

His close ties to Iran were seen as a factor supporting his candidacy. Both Darwish and Hayya are also seen as close to Tehran, whose support will be vital for Hamas to recover after the war.

Meanwhile, the prospects of the prominent former Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal have been clouded by a record of friction with Tehran after his support for the Sunni Muslim-led revolt in 2011 against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Attallah said Hayya’s ties to Iran stood him in better stead than Meshaal. But if Iran softened its opposition to Meshaal, he may have a chance, he said.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Protesters, mainly Houthi supporters, stand in front of the billboard showing late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar as they rally to show support to Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, in Sanaa, Yemen October 18, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah vowed on Friday (October 18, 2024) to launch a new phase of fighting against Israel, a day after Israel said its forces in Gaza had killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the chief architect of last year’s deadly attack on Israel that sparked the multifront war.

Israeli hostages in Gaza will not return until “the aggression” on the besieged Palestinian enclave stops and Israeli forces withdraw, Khalil Al-Hayya, deputy Gaza Hamas chief and the group’s chief negotiator, said on Friday (October 18, 2024).

Sinwar’s killing, in what appeared to be a chance front-line encounter with Israeli troops, could shift the dynamics of the Gaza war even as Israel presses its offensive against Hezbollah with ground troops in southern Lebanon and airstrikes in other areas of the country. Hezbollah has fired rockets into Israel nearly every day since the Israel-Hamas war began.

Both Hamas and Hezbollah are backed by Iran, which hailed Sinwar as a martyr who can inspire others in challenging Israel.

Israel has pledged to destroy Hamas politically in Gaza, and killing Sinwar was a top military priority.

Photos which were apparently taken by Israeli troops on the scene showed the body of a man who appeared to be him, half-buried in rubble and with a gaping wound in his head.

Hamas on Sinwar’s killing

One of Hamas’ political leaders abroad on Friday (October 18, 2024) seemed to refer Sinwar’s death in a statement, saying Israel is mistaken if it “believes that killing our leaders means the end of our movement and the struggle of the Palestinian people.”

“Hamas each time became stronger and more popular, and these leaders became an icon for future generations to continue the journey towards a free Palestine,” said Hamas political bureau member Bassem Naim, who is usually based in Qatar.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a speech announcing the killing Thursday night that “our war is not yet ended.” But many, from the governments of Israel’s allies to exhausted residents of Gaza, expressed hope that Sinwar’s death would pave the way for an end to the war.

In Israel, families of hostages still held in Gaza demanded the Israeli government use Sinwar’s killing as a way to restart negotiations to bring home their loved ones. There are about 100 hostages remaining in Gaza, at least 30 of whom Israel says are dead.

“We are at an inflection point where the goals set for the war with Gaza have been achieved, all but the release of the hostages,” Ronen Neutra, father of the Israeli-American hostage Omer Neutra, said in a video statement. “Sinwar, who was described as a major obstacle to a deal, is no longer alive.”

Mr. Netanyahu was planning to convene a special meeting on Friday (October 18, 2024) to discuss hostage negotiations, an Israeli official with knowledge of the negotiations said. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential information.

Iran’s Mission to the United Nations issued a statement honoring Sinwar, emphasizing that he died on the battlefield and not in hiding, unlike the their former enemy Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, who was hanged in 2006.

“When U.S. forces dragged a disheveled Saddam Hussein out of an underground hole, he begged them not to kill him despite being armed. Those who regarded Saddam as their model of resistance eventually collapsed,” the statement said. “However when Muslims look up to martyr Sinwar standing on the battlefield — in combat attire and out in the open, not in a hideout, facing the enemy — the spirit of resistance will be strengthened.”

More than 1 million people on both sides were killed during the brutal Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s that began when Hussein launched an invasion of Iran.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah issued a statement early on Friday (October 18, 2024) saying its fighters have used new types of precision-guided missiles and explosive drones against Israel for the first time in recent days.

Hezbollah’s statement appeared to refer to an explosives-laden drone that evaded Israel’s multilayered air-defense system and slammed into a mess hall at a military training camp deep inside Israel last Sunday, killing four soldiers and wounding dozens.

The group also announced earlier this week that it fired a new type of missile called Qader 2 toward the suburbs of Tel Aviv.

Battle continues in southern Lebanon

The Israeli military said it would activate an additional reserve brigade to the north of its country to support troops battling in southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah said its fighters were working according to “plans prepared in advance” to battle invading Israeli troops in several parts of south Lebanon. It also announced several missile and artillery attacks on Israeli forces operating in villages in southern Lebanon’s border area overnight and Friday morning.