Maldives’ President-elect of the Maldives’ Mohamed Muizzu (C) of the People’s National Congress (PNC) party delivers a speech during a gathering with supporters following the country’s presidential election, in Male on October 2, 2023.
| Photo Credit: AFP

The President-elect of the Maldives said he will stick to his campaign promise to remove Indian military personnel stationed in the archipelago state, promising he would initiate the process.

Mohamed Muizzu told his supporters gathered Monday night at a celebration of his election victory that he wouldn’t stand for a foreign military staying in the Maldives against the will of its citizens.

“The people have told us that they don’t want foreign military here,” he said.

It’s a serious blow to India in its geopolitical rivalry with China in the India Ocean region, where the Maldives’ presidential run-off election on Saturday was seen as a virtual referendum on which of the regional powers would have the biggest influence on the archipelago. Outgoing President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who was elected President in 2018, was battling allegations by Mr. Muizzu that he had allowed India an unchecked presence in the country. Mr. Muizzu’s party, the People’s National Congress, is viewed as heavily pro-China.

Mr. Muizzu’s main campaign theme was about an alleged threat to the Maldives’ sovereignty by some Indian military personnel on an island, part of the party’s yearslong “India out” strategy.

Mr. Solih insisted that the Indian military’s presence in the Maldives was only to build a dockyard under an agreement between the two governments and that his country’s sovereignty won’t be violated.

The number of Indian troops in the Maldives is unknown. Critics say the secrecy behind the agreement between the two governments regarding the placement of military personnel and their role has led to suspicion and rumor. Known activities of the Indian military include operating two helicopters donated by India and assisting in the rescue of people stranded or faced with calamities at sea.

Former President Abdulla Yameen, leader of the People’s National Congress, made the Maldives a part of China’s Belt and Road initiative during his presidency from 2013 to 2018. The initiative is meant to build railroads, ports and highways to expand trade — and China’s influence — across Asia, Africa and Europe.

Yameen was transferred Sunday from prison to house arrest, already fulfilling one of Muiz’s campaign promises before he officially takes office on Nov. 17.

The Maldives is made up of 1,200 coral islands in the Indian Ocean, located by the main shipping route between the East and the West.

Maldives’ main opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu casts his vote in Male, Maldives, on September 30, 2023.
| Photo Credit: AP

Frontrunner and Opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu appeared poised for victory in the Maldivian presidential race, provisional results of Saturday’s run-off showed, as he beat the India-friendly incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih in a closely fought contest in the Indian Ocean archipelago.

Also read: The Hindu Profiles: Who is Mohamed Muizzu? 

The second round of the presidential election saw a higher voter turnout of 86%, compared to the 79.85% recorded in the first, the lowest seen in a Maldivian presidential election.  Around 9 p.m. IST, the Election Commission of Maldives showed Mr. Muizzu having garnered about 56% of the vote, while Mr. Solih had secured nearly 46%.  

The vote for change in the Maldives comes after a strong anti-incumbency sentiment against the Solih administration, and a concerted Opposition campaign, led by his rival, former President and jailed leader Abdulla Yameen, demanding ‘India out’ of the country.

President Solih came under sharp attack from the Opposition for his close India ties. While the Opposition People’s National Congress-Progressive Party of Maldives coalition’s pro-China stance is no secret, observers within the Maldives have said Mr. Muizzu is unlikely to abruptly sever ties with India.  The newly-elected leader would seek to balance India-China ties, they note, even as New Delhi hopes for continuity in India’s many infrastructure projects across the island nation.

Both candidates had made big promises on housing, a preoccupation for the Maldivian voter, as the island nation battles congestion and development skewed towards capital Male, while several other atolls await basic amenities. The winner of Saturday’s election, which followed an inconclusive first round on September 9, 2023, will have his task cut out, as the country faces mounting debt, dwindling foreign reserves and heightening climate risks.

The Maldives is also preparing for a referendum next month, for citizens to decide if the country must switch to a parliamentary system of governance, a long-time demand of former President and parliamentary Speaker Mohamed Nasheed. After his fallout with his party colleague and friend Mr. Solih —it is seen as a major reason for Mr. Solih’s electoral defeat —Mr. Nasheed backed a young aspirant who came third in the first round, and exited the race.

A commuter takes pictures with his mobile phone of a decorated wall along a street ahead of the country’s presidential election, in Male.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Over 2,80,000 people of the Maldives will have a say in the presidential polls on Saturday [September 9, 2023], a race that has been shaped by three presidents – the incumbent, a breakaway leader, and a jailed politician.  

President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih is seeking a record second term amid a host of political challenges, including a diminished party, after his former colleague Mohamed Nasheed — Parliamentary Speaker and former President — quit the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) earlier this year amid growing political differences.

Following the split that sharply divided party loyalists, Mr. Nasheed’s backers set up a new party called The Democrats, whose candidate, legislator Ilyas Labeeb, is among seven rivals challenging President Solih.  Male Mayor Mohamed Muizzu, who is running from the People’s National Congress — jailed President Abdulla Yameen was barred from contesting — has drawn considerable support, locals note.

Two other candidates drawing attention are Jumhooree Party leader Qasim Ibrahim and Ahmed Faris Maumoon, son of former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom who ruled Maldives with an iron first for three decades until the Indian Ocean Archipelago’s shift to democracy in 2008. In a likely scenario where no candidate secures over 50 % of the mandate, a second round of elections will be held.

During his term, India-friendly President Solih has focussed on education, health and civic infrastructure, carrying out a host of projects in capital Male and the atolls, many of which are backed by grants and loans from New Delhi.

While Indian assistance in defence, infrastructure and education have grown, critics of the Solih administration question its “over-reliance” on India.  Former President Abdulla Yameen, whose regime was known for its China tilt, sought to mobilise popular support against “Indian intervention”, leading the ‘India Out’ campaign between his two court convictions.

Days before the election, government critics circulated a letter on social media claiming it was communication between the foreign ministers of India and Maldives, on India using Maldivian land for Indian military operations. Both, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maldives, and the High Commission of India in Male rejected the letter as fake and fabricated.

Key issues

While the world observes elections in the island nation for its geopolitical stakes in the region, for Maldivians, the election is more about concerns surrounding land in the congested capital, and their economic fortunes in an economy strained by debt and rapid, asymmetric development.

On the penultimate day of campaign on Thursday, Male’s streets were lit up with some characteristic late-night rallies, as bold posters of candidates pop up every few yards. “We have seen the voter turn out increase in the last three presidential elections from 86.58 % (2003), 87.20 % (2013) and 89.22 % (2018),” an official of the Election Commission said on Monday.

In addition to capital Male, polling stations have been set up in 189 atolls, apart from tourist resorts to enable the scattered population exercise their franchise in the country’s fourth presidential election since its  switch to democracy in 2008.