Maldives’ main opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu casts his vote in Male, Maldives, on September 30, 2023.
| Photo Credit: AP

Frontrunner and Opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu appeared poised for victory in the Maldivian presidential race, provisional results of Saturday’s run-off showed, as he beat the India-friendly incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih in a closely fought contest in the Indian Ocean archipelago.

Also read: The Hindu Profiles: Who is Mohamed Muizzu? 

The second round of the presidential election saw a higher voter turnout of 86%, compared to the 79.85% recorded in the first, the lowest seen in a Maldivian presidential election.  Around 9 p.m. IST, the Election Commission of Maldives showed Mr. Muizzu having garnered about 56% of the vote, while Mr. Solih had secured nearly 46%.  

The vote for change in the Maldives comes after a strong anti-incumbency sentiment against the Solih administration, and a concerted Opposition campaign, led by his rival, former President and jailed leader Abdulla Yameen, demanding ‘India out’ of the country.

President Solih came under sharp attack from the Opposition for his close India ties. While the Opposition People’s National Congress-Progressive Party of Maldives coalition’s pro-China stance is no secret, observers within the Maldives have said Mr. Muizzu is unlikely to abruptly sever ties with India.  The newly-elected leader would seek to balance India-China ties, they note, even as New Delhi hopes for continuity in India’s many infrastructure projects across the island nation.

Both candidates had made big promises on housing, a preoccupation for the Maldivian voter, as the island nation battles congestion and development skewed towards capital Male, while several other atolls await basic amenities. The winner of Saturday’s election, which followed an inconclusive first round on September 9, 2023, will have his task cut out, as the country faces mounting debt, dwindling foreign reserves and heightening climate risks.

The Maldives is also preparing for a referendum next month, for citizens to decide if the country must switch to a parliamentary system of governance, a long-time demand of former President and parliamentary Speaker Mohamed Nasheed. After his fallout with his party colleague and friend Mr. Solih —it is seen as a major reason for Mr. Solih’s electoral defeat —Mr. Nasheed backed a young aspirant who came third in the first round, and exited the race.

India is studying possible responses to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan following discreet inquiries from the US on how the country could contribute in the event of a war, according to senior government officials.

About six weeks ago, Defense Chief General Anil Chauhan – the top military commander – commissioned a study to examine the wider impact of any war over the island that also involves the US and its allies, and what action India could take in response, according to two senior Indian officials, who asked not to be named since discussions are private. The order came after the US raised the issue in several different forums, they said.

The study will assess various war scenarios and provide options for India in case a conflict breaks out, they said. Some military commanders believe that strong statements may suffice as a response in case the war is short, but ultimately that will not be enough if the conflict drags on like Russia’s war in Ukraine, the officials said.

India’s preparation for a potential war over Taiwan shows how its policy of “multi-alignment” will be tested in the event of a drastic deterioration of US-China ties. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has forged its own path on international relations, effectively hedging its bets by developing close ties to the US while refusing to join international sanctions on Russia.

Yet tensions with China have also flared along their disputed Himalayan border, contributing to a deterioration in relations that may have prompted President Xi Jinping to skip the Group of 20 summit this weekend in New Delhi. India has strengthened defense ties with the US in recent years, joining the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue along with Japan and Australia – a band of democracies intent on countering China’s growing influence.

One option the Indian military will study involves serving as a logistics hub to provide repair and maintenance facilities for allied warships and aircraft, as well as food, fuel and medical equipment for armies resisting China, the officials said. A more extreme scenario, they added, would assess the potential for India to get directly involved along their northern border, opening a new theater of war for China.

While no deadline has been set to complete the study, the Indian military is under orders to finish it as soon as possible, one of the officials said. The options prepared will be available for PM Modi and other political leaders to make a final call on any action should the need arise, the official said.

The Defence and Foreign ministries didn’t respond to emailed questions. The US State Department didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

“By hyping up the Taiwan question, creating tensions and provoking confrontation, the US attempts to turn the Taiwan question into an international issue,” Mao Ning, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, told reporters in Beijing on Friday. “This is highly dangerous.”

India and China have mobilized thousands of troops, artillery guns, tanks and missiles closer to the unmarked border running some 3,500 km, roughly the length of the US-Mexico boundary. Diplomatic talks have yielded little, with China last month releasing a new map claiming India-controlled territory that Foreign Minister S Jaishankar described as “absurd.”

India has publicly resisted efforts to make the Quad appear like a military alliance, and remains reliant on Russia – China’s most important diplomatic partner – for weapons that would be used in any regional war. Even so, it has quietly sought better relations with Taiwan: Three former Indian military chiefs who stepped down in the past year all visited Taiwan last month.

Five years ago, India and the US signed a Logistics-Exchange Memorandum of Agreement, a foundational pact to allow refueling and replenishing of warships and aircraft, as well as access to bases when required.

Even though India is examining military options, it remains unlikely that the nation would get involved directly in a war over Taiwan, according to Lisa Curtis, senior fellow and director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Washington-based Centre for a New American Security, who earlier worked with the National Security Council, CIA and the State Department. It’s possible India may provide access to places like the Andaman and Nicobar Islands near Southeast Asia, she added.

“If there were to be some kind of conflict or crises in the Taiwan Strait, I think India’s position would be to stand back and not get militarily involved,” she said. “Even though they may support Taiwan with statements and humanitarian assistance, I think they would be very weary about providing any kind of military assistance to the United States.”

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

File image for representation.
| Photo Credit: Getty Images/iStockphoto

With Chinese President Xi Jinping skipping a G-20 summit for the first time, Beijing is sending “deliberate signals” to India and the West by essentially downgrading its involvement in a key international forum, according to current and former officials and people familiar with Beijing’s thinking.

Missing the summit, they said, conveys China’s displeasure both with the current state of bilateral ties with India — and New Delhi’s stand that normalcy in broader ties is not possible without a restoration of peace on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) — and with what Beijing sees as a “politicisation” of the G-20, which it believes should be limited to economic issues and not involve itself with issues such as the war in Ukraine.

‘Surprising,’ says Ashok Kantha

Beijing offered no reason on Monday for Mr. Xi’s decision to skip the summit. The decision was “surprising”, noted former Indian Ambassador to China Ashok Kantha, considering Mr. Xi attended all previous G-20 summits (he attended the 2021 Rome summit virtually) and as recently as August 24 travelled to South Africa for the BRICS summit.  Health reasons also do not appear to be a factor, with Mr. Xi in the past week meeting with the visiting President of Benin in Beijing and also addressing by video a key conference on trade in services.

“So one presumes it is a deliberate signal both in the bilateral context, where there is unhappiness about the present state of relations, and a second aspect is a lack of comfort for China with the G-20 as a platform,” Mr. Kantha said. “They are sending out signals that they see things [with India] as not good and that they are not going to go the extra mile to retrieve the situation.”

Following an informal conversation between Mr. Modi and Mr. Xi in South Africa, both sides put out differing readouts over what was said, and then subsequently exchanged sharp barbs over China’s issuing of a new “standard map” for 2023 on August 28. While the timing, five days after the meeting between the leaders, was likely coincidental given the release of the map during what appeared to be a long-planned “map awareness publicity week” campaign in China by the Ministry of Natural Resources, it was seen by New Delhi as further complicating already sensitive relations amid an unresolved border crisis.

Skipping the summit also reflects China’s unease with the G-20 as a platform, and a stark contrast to its investing in other fora such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

People familiar with Beijing’s thinking suggest Mr. Xi would have been “very likely present in Delhi” if India hosted the SCO summit in person given the importance accorded by Beijing to the China and Russia-backed grouping. India decided to host the summit virtually, although it had initially planned for a physical summit in New Delhi.

“In BRICS, Xi was more comfortable as China was more in a position to influence the agenda and outcomes,” Mr. Kantha added. “At the G-20, there is much greater pressure on China, and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin being absent means China will come under pressure. The Chinese feel they are more in control at the BRICS and SCO.”

Second-ranked leader and Premier Li Qiang will attend the Delhi G-20 summit. This is a deviation from standard Chinese protocol, with a clear division of responsibility in the Chinese system when it comes to international meetings. The President as Head of State (HoS) usually attends the G-20 and APEC Summit. Mr. Xi is expected to travel to the U.S. in November for the latter. The Premier usually attends the East Asia Summit, which Mr. Li is participating in this week in Indonesia before travelling to New Delhi. Both attend the SCO where there are separate HoS and Head of Government meetings.

“That practice is maintained very clearly and they don’t ordinarily deviate from it,” Mr. Kantha noted. “So this is not a routine decision, and it is clearly well thought out.”