Tragedies like the Wayanad landslides repeat themselves partly because their lessons are not brought to bear on our understanding of the local amplifiers of extreme events. A view of a mountain of the Western Ghats in Wayanad, Kerala, November 15, 2022.
| Photo Credit: Nakkeeran Raveendran/Unsplash

At no place on the earth is the climate risk zero — yet when natural hazards strike, the resulting loss of lives, livelihoods, and assets sting. Disaster management and recovery play a crucial role in alleviating the pain. Unfortunately, however, a blame game may follow asking whether early warnings could have averted the tragedy.

Any early warning that may have been issued will always start with the weather forecast for the area where the hazard manifested. Proactively mitigating disasters instead of always managing them after they happen requires climate risk outlooks that go out to a decade or longer.

Further, post-facto analyses of deadly disasters — like the landslides in Wayanad, Kerala, on July 30 — often do not appreciate the fact that broad warnings of risks can hardly be translated to specific actions. For example, if we declare the entire Western Ghats to be vulnerable to landslides, governments can develop and enforce regulations to protect the whole range from deforestation, development, monoculture plantations, etc.

However, doing so will mitigate some landslides; it won’t get rid of extreme events induced by climate change anytime soon. Some landslides will occur anyway even if the Ghats enjoy the fullest protections from human perturbations because the risk is never zero.

Predictions for disaster management, mitigation

Similarly, the predictions of models will also always be imperfect. If we are to improve their ability to predict extreme events more accurately (in terms of their location and amplitude), we need to fully understand the effects of local drivers that could exacerbate the climate’s effects. After every extreme event, someone claims global warming is a contributor — yet the relationship between local events and global warming complicates the truth of such claims.

The drivers of climate extremes originate from a far-away place but are usually exacerbated by some regional, location-specific factors.

For instance, a 2015 study (which included this author) indicated that coastal sea surface temperatures have a strong influence on heavy rain along India’s west coast. Wayanad district lies about 80 km from this coast. Monsoon winds stream across the equator and continue to load up on moisture as they turn southwesterly and head towards the Western Ghats. As they approach the coast, the winds sense they will have to climb the Western Ghats and slow down. Slower winds reduce the evaporation over the coastal ocean and the coastal waters tend to warm up — and warm waters exert a strong control on the atmosphere and rainfall.

Such a warming is typically seen up to 10 days ahead of a heavy rain event over the coastal ocean. Global models typically miss such local, small-scale warming or cooling processes and tend to underestimate the amount of rain in an extreme event. Enhancing the coastal observations and assimilating them into forecast models is expected to improve predictions.

This is also why adopting location-specific measures like legal protections for biodiversity can help mitigate disasters. Governments can also bolster their regulatory strategies using predictions of the climate up to a decade in the future and combining each prediction with hyperlocal risks.

Similarly, national and local governments will have to work together and share monitoring, reporting, and verification responsibilities to mitigate risk. Finally, all these consequences of the relationship between global warming and local events will have to be accounted for in budgetary provisions. Otherwise, mitigating disasters may not be sustainable.

Further, predictions with a lead time of a few weeks could help disaster management personnel mobilise towards locales with the highest imminent risk and avoid surprises. This is where the location-specific drivers can help ensure the hyperlocal risk information is reliable in crisis times.

Coarse global to fine hyperlocal

Global models provide seasonal outlooks and predictions at the short (1-3 days), medium (3-10 days), and extended (2-4 weeks) ranges. They have been getting better at offering outlooks of the monsoon, the El Niño and La Niña events, and early extreme-event warnings. Researchers around the world — in academia and national laboratories — constantly diagnose imperfections in these models and remove them.

One particular approach to improving the models is called downscaling, especially to enhance predictions of extreme events like small-scale heavy rain. In downscaling, researchers use a global model to drive local predictions in a higher resolution regional model to capture the weather at scales that the global model will miss.

Of late, they have been executing such two-tier strategies using techniques in artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML). Their costs are lower than those incurred by running a high-resolution regional model. Such AI/ML approaches are also many times faster than regional models, further lending themselves to more effective disaster management.

Spotting location-specific amplifiers

Tragedies like that in Wayanad on July 30 tend to repeat themselves partly because their lessons are not always brought to bear on our understanding of the local amplifiers of extreme events. Simple changes in land use patterns — associated with urbanisation, say, or the deforestation of mountain slopes — could lead to a crushing cloudburst and or a punishing hailstorm.

The relatively more coarse resolutions of global models — which deal with changes in the tens of kilometres — tend to miss such local features and add to their imperfections. To acquire a better sense of the effects of these features and thus enable regional dynamic or AI/ML downscaling for hyperlocal predictions, we need more local data of weather and climate variables.

Disaster mitigation efforts are crucial to weather-proof the country and make it more climate-resilient at longer timescales. To this end we urgently need a data network that supports the mapping of local extreme event amplifiers.

Raghu Murtugudde is a professor, IIT Bombay, and emeritus professor, University of Maryland.

Pedestrians walk on a road amid heavy monsoon rains in Navi Mumbai, July 13, 2024.
| Photo Credit: PTI

We are in the middle of the monsoon season of 2024. The monsoon onset happened on time on May 30 but its evolution thus far has sprung some surprises. The distribution of rainfall looks as patchy as ever, albeit with some unexpected patterns. The seasonal outlook by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a normal to above-normal amount of rainfall based on the expectation that a La Niña appears to be likely. But this La Niña appears to be playing truant so far.

After the on-time onset, the northward movement of the monsoon trough seemed to be quite rapid. But then the trough stalled and produced a fairly dry June for large swaths of the country. Even the entire stretch of the Western Ghats received below-normal rainfall levels into July. An unusual pattern of excess rain stretching from south to north persists to this day, with dry patches over large parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha, as well as northwestern India into Jammu & Kashmir.

A useful index with disclaimers

I have used this analogy before and it still works well. As the Sun crosses into the Northern Hemisphere and starts warming the Indian subcontinent like a popcorn kettle, monsoon systems pop like kernels of corn in the kettle. The temperature inside the kettle will be essentially uniform but kernels will still pop randomly, here and there.

These kernels are like the rainfall: its patchy pattern is visible on day-to-day data as well as data averaged over the whole season and even over a whole decade.

However, the convenience of using the ‘all India monsoon rainfall’ index for providing seasonal outlooks — as the IMD does — is undermined by the uncertainty India’s farmers face at the local levels. Our forecasts of rain days or weeks ahead of a given date are getting better but they concomitantly increase the demand for and value of even more accurate and hyperlocal forecasts.

This demand is not only from farmers but also water managers and energy companies, among others. We need a broader perspective of the monsoon circulation to help understand where the limitations exist and how they can be resolved.

The circulation beyond India

People know the summer monsoon as the “southwest monsoon” because the winds sweep in from the southwest over the Arabian Sea into mainland India, across the Western Ghats. The western edge of the winds graze the African highlands, and some experts have often argued that they are critical for steering the southwesterly winds. The active Bay of Bengal, which is full of convective events, can be expected to ‘pull’ the winds towards India as well.

Convection in the atmosphere refers to rain events that release condensation heat.

The heating over West Asia and even the dust from the deserts there contribute to the monsoon circulation and its variability, as well as the changes it is experiencing due to global warming. Pakistan is very much a part of the monsoon circulation and it experiences high rainfall variability. This is because the edges of the monsoon circulation tend to be highly variable.

The land encompassed by the Himalayan foothills, and thus Nepal and Bhutan as well as the eastern edge of the Bay of Bengal (including Myanmar), is also involved in regulating the monsoon and the transfer of its heat to the Indian subcontinent. Bangladesh is of course ensconced between Northeast India and mainland India. We don’t pay attention to the role of heating over Bangladesh or the ocean-land-atmosphere dynamics that creates the beautiful monsoon and its heartbreaking vagaries every year.

The heating centres over the subcontinent are very strong and they maintain a sustained demand for moisture to sustain the convection centers. Indeed, the circulation that sweeps the oceans and the subcontinent can’t be represented accurately in rainfall models unless we capture all the heating centres from Pakistan and West Asia in the west to Myanmar in the east, and the Indian Ocean from about 10º south to its northern edge against the subcontinent.

Detail gaps beyond India’s borders

As hard as the IMD and its labs are working to improve their monsoon forecasting abilities at all timescales, their efforts are also undermined by a lack of rainfall and other weather data over parts of the subcontinent beyond India. Satellites can help to some extent but the amount of data available in near real-time to initiate forecasts is often quite inadequate.

These rainfall models are global for most subcontinent-scale forecasts even though the IMD also develops regional model forecasts, at the levels of cities, and at the national scale. The global models ingest data about the oceans and the planetary atmosphere to initiate forecasts and the volume of data can appear to be large and adequate — but this is often not the case.

Monitoring the whole subcontinent

India has been fortunate enough to have a rainfall monitoring network since the 19th century, and the advantages are now bearing fruit with investments in forecasting infrastructure. At this point, we need a few important steps to reach the next level in forecast accuracy. This is also essential to sustain continuous economic growth for India, especially in terms of food, water, and energy security.

In fact, even our national security depends heavily on weather and climate forecasts — for India as well as for the country’s more climate-vulnerable neighbors. Debilitating natural disasters can quickly turn into national security concerns, especially with some neighbors having to seek aid from non-allies.

India does share its forecasts with some countries but it may benefit more by extending this strategy to also establish a broad network to monitor weather and climate across the subcontinent. Improved forecasts for the subcontinent will make everybody safe and less vulnerable. This can only mean better opportunities for safety for all, including food, water, and energy, as well as better health.

Raghu Murtugudde is a professor, IIT Bombay, and emeritus professor, University of Maryland.

New Delhi:

With millions of people across five continents experiencing scorching heat last month, the European Union’s (EU) climate agency, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), confirmed on Monday that June was the warmest on record.

It also marked the 12th consecutive month of global temperatures reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.

According to scientists at C3S, every month since June last year has been the warmest such month on record.

In January, the world completed an entire year with the mean surface air temperature exceeding the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold. June was the 12th consecutive month with monthly average temperatures above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.

At the 2015 UN climate talks in Paris, world leaders committed to limiting the global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. However, a permanent breach of the 1.5-degree Celsius limit specified in the Paris Agreement refers to long-term warming over a 20 or 30-year period.

Earth’s global surface temperature has already increased by around 1.2 degrees Celsius compared to the average in 1850-1900 due to the rapidly-increasing concentration of greenhouse gases — primarily carbon dioxide and methane — in the atmosphere. This warming is considered to be the reason behind record droughts, wildfires and floods worldwide.

According to new data, June 2024 was the warmest on record, with an average surface air temperature of 16.66 degrees Celsius, 0.67 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average for the month and 0.14 degrees Celsius above the previous high set in June 2023.

“The month was 1.5 degrees Celsius above the estimated June average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period, making it the 12th consecutive month to reach or break the 1.5-degree threshold,” C3S said in a statement.

It was also the 13th consecutive month of record-high temperatures, a result of the combined effect of the 2023-24 El Nino event and human-caused climate change. While unusual, a similar streak of monthly global temperature records happened previously in 2015-16.

“This is more than a statistical oddity and highlights a large and continuing shift in our climate. Even if this specific streak of extremes ends at some point, we are bound to see new records being broken as the climate continues to warm. This is inevitable, unless we stop adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and the oceans,” said Carlo Buontempo, the director of C3S.

The European climate agency said the global average temperature for the last 12 months (July 2023-June 2024) is the highest on record, at 0.76 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average and 1.64 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.

The world’s sea surface in June was also the highest ever recorded for the month.

Several countries experienced record-breaking heat and devastating floods and storms in June.

According to an analysis by Climate Central, an independent group of scientists and communicators based in the United States, more than 60 per cent of the world population faced extreme heat that was made at least three times more likely by climate change during June 16-24.

Climate Central said the blistering heat in June impacted 619 million (61.9 crore) people in India, 579 million (57.9 crore) in China, 231 million (23.1 crore) in Indonesia, 206 million (20.6 crore) in Nigeria, 176 million (17.6 crore) in Brazil, 171 million (17.1 crore) in Bangladesh, 165 million (16.5 crore) in the US, 152 million (15.2 crore) in Europe, 123 million (12.3 crore) in Mexico, 121 million (12.1 crore) in Ethiopia and 103 million (10.3 crore) in Egypt.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), northwest India recorded its warmest June since 1901.

India, which experienced one of its hottest and longest heatwaves, recorded more than 40,000 suspected heatstroke cases and over 100 heat-related deaths. The intense heat overwhelmed the water supply system and power grids, with Delhi grappling with a severe water crisis.

According to the IMD, 11 states recorded 20 to 38 heatwave days — up to four times the usual number of such days — during the April-to-June period. The mercury breached 50 degrees Celsius in parts of Rajasthan, with night temperatures hovering around 35 degrees Celsius in many places.

Temperatures were most above average over eastern Canada, the western United States and Mexico, Brazil, northern Siberia, the Middle East, northern Africa, and western Antarctica. 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Dehradun:

The ongoing Char Dham Yatra in Uttarakhand will remain suspended on Sunday due to the heavy rain alert issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for July 7-8.

Garhwal Divisional Commissioner Vinay Shankar Pandey issued an order in this regard late Saturday and urged pilgrims en route to the temples to avoid proceeding further and stay where they are.

He appealed to pilgrims not to travel beyond Rishikesh in view of the weather department’s heavy rain forecast and landslides on various routes.

Pilgrims have been advised to proceed further only when the weather is clear.

The IMD on Saturday issued an alert for heavy to very heavy rainfall in all the districts of Uttarakhand on Sunday and Monday.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

New Delhi:

The national capital recorded a maximum temperature of 37.1 degrees Celsius on Sunday, a couple of days after Delhi was lashed by 228.1 mm of rains, bringing the city to its knees and claiming multiple lives.

According to the weather department, 9 mm of rain was recorded in the city on Sunday, while humidity was 60 per cent at 5.30 pm.

The India Meteorological Department has predicted overcast conditions and heavy rain on Monday and Tuesday. It also said that heavy rains at isolated places in Delhi and adjoining states are very likely till July 4.

The weather department has predicted moderate rain and thunderstorm accompanied with gusty winds on Sunday night.

The Air Quality Index (AQI) of the national capital was in the “moderate” category with a reading of 118 at 6 pm, according to the Central Pollution Control Board.

An AQI between zero and 50 is considered “good”, 51 and 100 “satisfactory”, 101 and 200 “moderate”, 201 and 300 “poor”, 301 and 400 “very poor”, and 401 and 500 “severe”. 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

New Delhi:

The India Meteorological Department on Monday informed that Cyclone Remal over Coastal Bangladesh and adjoining Coastal West Bengal moved nearly northwards, with a speed of 15 kilometres per hour.

“The Cyclonic Storm ‘Remal’ over Coastal Bangladesh and adjoining Coastal West Bengal moved nearly northwards, with a speed of 15 kmph during the past 6 hours and lay centred at 08:30 hrs IST of today over the same region,” IMD posted on X.

According to the IMD, the severe cyclonic storm Remal has weakened into a cyclonic storm in the early hours of Monday and is expected to gradually weaken further.

“Severe Cyclonic Storm Remal over Coastal Bangladesh and adjoining Coastal West Bengal weakened into Cyclonic Storm at 0530hrs of the 27 May about 70km northeast of Canning and 30km west-southwest of Mongla. The system is likely to gradually weaken further,” IMD posted on X earlier.

Following the weakening of cyclone Remal, the flight operations resumed at Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose International Airport, Kolkata.

“Flight operations resumed at Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose International Airport, Kolkata at 0859 hrs, after it was closed for flight operation yesterday in view of the #CycloneRemal,” the official X handle of Kolkata Airport posted.

A passenger Debali Datta said, “I had my flight yesterday which got delayed. The airport authority informed me that it will depart today. This is because of the cyclone. Since we got to know beforehand, it did not create a lot of trouble for us.”

West Bengal Governor CV Ananda Bose with the Raj Bhavan task force also went on a field visit after cyclone Remal made landfall yesterday night.

“Raj Bhavan task force has just returned from the field visit. We are all greatly relieved that no reported casualty is there. Remal cyclone is weakening and the people of Bengal have been able to brave it with fortitude and courage. We are watching in case there is any need for any help. Raj Bhavan task force is ready. I thank the entire people of West Bengal for the solidarity which they have expressed,” Bose said.

Following the landfall of cyclonic storm ‘Remal’, waterlogging has been witnessed in parts of Kolkata with heavy rain.

Several trees were also uprooted in Kolkata’s Alipore area as heavy rain and gusty winds lashed several parts of West Bengal.

The IMD earlier informed that the storm ‘Remal’ would continue to move nearly northwards for some more time and then north-northeastwards and weaken gradually into a Cyclonic Storm.

The cyclone moved northwards and crossed the Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal Coasts between Sagar Islands and Khepupara close to southwest of Mongla, said IMD.

“The Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Remal’ over the North Bay of Bengal moved nearly northwards, with a speed of 13 kmph during past 06 hours, crossed Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal Coasts between Sagar Islands and Khepupara close to southwest of Mongla near Latitude 21.75N and Longitude 89.2E between 22:30 hrs IST of 26th May to 00:30 hrs IST of 27th May 2024 as a Severe Cyclonic Storm with wind speed of 110 to 120 Kmph gusting to 135 Kmph,” said IMD in a post on X.

“It lay centred at 01:30 hrs IST of today, the 27th May, 2024 over Coastal Bangladesh and adjoining Coastal West Bengal, near latitude 21.9N and longitude 89,2E about 115 km east of Sagar Islands (West Bengal), 105 km west-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh), 70 km southeast of Canning (West Bengal) and SO km south-southwest of Mongla (Bangladesh), The system would continue to move nearly northwards for some more time and then north-northeastwards and weaken gradually into a Cyclonic Storm by morning of 27,” added the post.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Barmer:

The scorching heat continues in most parts of Rajasthan, and now even the nights are getting hotter. Due to the heatwave and scorching heat conditions on Friday, it became difficult for people to come out of their homes.

Thursday was the hottest day of this season in Barmer. To provide relief from the heat, water is being sprinkled on the streets and roads.

On Thursday, the maximum temperature in Barmer increased by 0.8 degrees, reaching 48.8 degrees Celsius, and the minimum temperature decreased by 0.4 degrees, reaching 32.2 degrees Celsius.

On Friday, the maximum temperature reached 48.8 degrees Celsius in Barmer. A red alert was issued in most of the districts of Rajasthan, with temperatures expected to increase by two degrees Celsius from May 25 to 27.

Barmer district collector Nishant Jain said that the leaves of Health, PHED (Public Health and Engineering Department), Discom officials, and administrative officers have been cancelled till further orders.

“In view of the heat, the health department is keeping a vigil on reserve beds and essential medicines. These officers are also going and checking whether all the facilities are available or not,” Jain said.

He added further, “Efforts are being made by the administration to provide relief to the people. My appeal to people would be to go out of the house only if necessary, especially in the afternoon.”

A resident, Ramesh, while speaking with ANI, said, “The temperatures are reaching 46-47 degrees Celsius. It’s becoming very difficult for us. I would urge people to plant trees so that next year, we don’t have to bear such rising temperatures in Barmer.”

Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday issued a heatwave alert. “Heatwave to severe heatwave conditions very likely in many parts of Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, few parts of West Uttar Pradesh and heatwave conditions very likely in isolated pockets of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha on May 27 and 28, 2024,” IMD said in a post on X.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Representational image only.
| Photo Credit: AP

The deep depression formed over the Bay of Bengal may intensify into a cyclone by Monday evening (October 23), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a bulletin. The cyclonic storm, after its formation, will be called ‘Hamoon‘, a name given by Iran.

The system is currently located in west-central Bay of Bengal after moving northeastwards on Sunday night. It lies centred around 400 km from Odisha’s Paradip and 550 km south-southwest of Digha in West Bengal.

“It is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm over the next 12 hours. It is very likely to move north-northeastwards and cross the Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Chittagong around October 25 evening as a deep depression,” the IMD’s morning bulletin said.

Meanwhile, the Odisha government has asked all the district Collectors to remain prepared for any eventuality and directed the administration to evacuate people from low-lying areas in the event of heavy rain.

“The system (cyclone) will move in the sea around 200 km from Odisha coast,” weather scientist U.S. Dash said, adding that under its influence, light to moderate rainfall is likely at a few places in coastal Odisha on Monday and at many places over the next two days.

The Weather Department said that light to moderate rainfall would occur at a few places in northern and southern coastal districts, besides Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj and Dhenkanal. The Fisheries and Animal Resources Development Department has advised fishermen not to venture into deep seas.

Keeping in view of the weather conditions, Durga puja organisers are preparing for possible rain and wind during the festivities.