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The rupee rose 2 paise to 83.96 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Wednesday (September 4, 2024) aided by a weakening dollar against major currencies overseas and a drop in crude oil prices.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.14% to 101.67.

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, declined 0.62% to 73.29 in futures trade.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 83.96, higher by 2 paise from its previous close and stayed put. The unit had settled at 83.98 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday.

“Amid the backdrop of this week’s jobs data, U.S. markets experienced a significant sell-off yesterday as investors sought refuge accompanied by a sharp drop in oil prices,” CR Forex Advisors Managing Director Amit Pabari said.

Meanwhile, in the domestic equity markets, Sensex tumbled 721.75 points to 81,833.69 in early trade, while Nifty tanked 196.05 points to 25,083.80.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they purchased shares worth ₹1,029.25 crore, according to exchange data.

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The rupee depreciated 12 paise to 83.56 against the US dollar in early trade on July 2, weighed down by the strengthening of the American currency in the overseas markets and elevated crude oil prices.

Forex traders said oil importers and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought US dollars amid rising US yields, and this dragged down the local unit.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 83.51 and lost further ground to trade at 83.56 against the greenback in initial deals, registering a fall of 12 paise from its previous closing level.

On Monday, the rupee depreciated 10 paise to settle at 83.44 against the US dollar.

The rupee had dollar inflows and rose to 83.37 on Monday, but was sold-off to 83.44 levels, as oil and FPIs bought dollars looking at rising US yields, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

On Tuesday, rupee is likely to touch 83.55 before cooling off to 83.45, Bhansali said, adding that the narrow range for the day could be 83.40 to 83.55.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 105.91, higher by 0.02 per cent, following a surge in US treasury yields as investors contemplated a second Trump US presidency.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.22 per cent to USD 86.80 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, touched lifetime high levels in early trade. However, the indices pared the initial gains and were trading 64.46 points, or 0.08 per cent, lower at 79,411.73 points. The broader NSE Nifty fell 25.55 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 24,116.40 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 426.03 crore, according to exchange data.

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The rupee recovered from previous day’s steep fall and traded 3 paise higher at 83.58 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Friday on the back of sustained inflow of foreign capital and strong domestic equity market sentiment.

Forex traders said the local unit found support from retreating American currency and easing crude oil prices overseas.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 83.60 and gained further to 83.58 against the greenback, registering a rise of 3 paise from its previous close.

On Thursday, the rupee had plunged 17 paise to hit its over two-month low level of 83.61 against the dollar. The domestic currency recorded its previous lowest closing level of 83.61 on April 16 this year.

Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, said the rupee’s sharp decline was “partly triggered by significant block deals worth ₹23,000 crore” a day earlier when Vodafone Idea also sold its 18% stake in Indus Towers for ₹15,300 crore.

At the same time, the dollar was “buoyed by wider interest-rate differentials” after major economies began cutting interest rates ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve, while “parts of Europe faced political turmoil”.

“The dollar’s ascent was also driven by a decline in the pound after the Bank of England decided not to cut interest rates,” Mr. James said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.01% at 105.21.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.13% to $85.60 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 127.75 points, or 0.16%, to 77,606.68. The broader NSE Nifty rose 37.65 points, or 0.16%, to 23,604.65. Both the indices closed the previous session at their highest levels.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Thursday as they purchased shares worth ₹415.30 crore, according to exchange data.

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The rupee depreciated 10 paise to 83.50 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on June 10, largely due to the rise in the dollar index and US yields.

Forex traders said uncertainty among market players was down as Narendra Modi was sworn in as Prime Minister on Sunday for a record-equalling third term. However, the strength of the American currency in the international market weighed on the local unit.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.48 and lost further ground to trade at 83.50 against the greenback, registering a loss of 10 paise from its previous closing level.

On Friday, the rupee appreciated 13 paise to 83.40 against the U.S. dollar.

According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, the rupee opened at 83.50 largely due to the rise in the dollar index and U.S. yields.

“The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should be present protecting the rupee as existing policies of the government will continue with largely the same cabinet as in Modi-2.0,” Mr. Bhansali said.

PM Modi will be heading a 72-member Union Council of Ministers putting emphasis on continuity, youth and experience, while also rewarding partners in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government.

Along with PM Modi, senior BJP leaders including Rajnath Singh, Amit Shah, Nitin Gadkari, Nirmala Sitharaman and S. Jaishankar, all ministers in the Modi 2.0 Cabinet, took oath as Cabinet ministers at the Rashtrapati Bhavan.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 105.18, higher by 0.29%.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.31% to $79.87 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, both benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, scaled record high levels in initial trade. The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 292.08 points, or 0.38% higher at 76,985.44 points. The broader NSE Nifty was trading at 23,291.50 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday, as they purchased shares worth ₹4,391.02 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves jumped $4.837 billion to a new all-time high of $651.51 billion for the week ended May 31, the RBI said on Friday.

In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had dropped $2.027 billion to $646.673 billion.

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The rupee recovered from the lower level and appreciated 7 paise to 83.44 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on June 5, taking cues from domestic equity markets and lower crude oil prices overseas.

Forex traders said the rush for value-buying triggered an uptrend in equity markets, boosting the local currency which saw a steep decline on June 4 after the general elections results showed a less-than-expected majority for the BJP-led NDA.

Also read | Markets bounce back in early trade after massive drop on value-buying at lower levels

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.50 and recovered some lost ground to trade at 83.44 against the greenback, registering a rise of 7 paise from its previous close.

On Tuesday, the domestic currency settled at 83.51 against the dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.09% higher at 104.14.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, slipped 0.03% to $77.50 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 172.89 points to 72,251.94 in early trade. The NSE Nifty went up 39.25 points to 21,923.75.

Both the indices ended more than 6% lower on Tuesday amid fear selling after the counting of votes showed disappointing results for the BJP-led NDA in the Lok Sabha elections with the alliance facing losses in its strongholds in the Hindi heartland, although it is expected to form the government with about 290 seats.

Foreign investors were net sellers of Indian equities on Monday as they offloaded shares worth ₹12,436.22 crore on a net basis. FIIs bought shares worth ₹26,776.17 crore and sold equities worth ₹39,212.39 crore in the cash segment.

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The rupee tumbled 45 paise to close at 83.59 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday as the ruling BJP is unlikely to muster an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha elections.

Besides, a massive sell-off in domestic equities and a strong greenback against major currencies overseas added to the gloom, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened weak at 83.25 and oscillated between a high of 83.23 and a low of 83.59 against the greenback during the session.

The domestic currency finally closed at 83.59 (provisional) against the dollar, registering a fall of 45 paise from its previous close.

On Monday, the rupee closed at 83.14 against the US dollar.

“The rupee depreciated…today as domestic markets fell sharply amid uncertainty over election results outcome. This may have also led to some sell-off by foreign investors. The US dollar recovered from yesterday’s losses on the weak Euro, which fell on disappointing employment data. The US dollar fell on Monday on weaker than expected ISM manufacturing PMI and construction spending,” Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.17 per cent higher at 104.25.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, dropped 1.88 per cent to USD 76.89 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex crashed 4,389.73 points, or 5.74 per cent, to close at 72,079.05. The broader NSE Nifty tumbled 1,379.40 points or 5.93 per cent to 21,884.50.

Foreign investors were net buyers of Indian equities on Monday as they purchased shares worth Rs 6,850.76 crore on a net basis. FIIs bought shares worth Rs 23,451.26 crore and sold equities worth Rs 16,600.50 crore in the cash segment.

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The rupee surged 38 paise to hit its three-month high level of 83.04 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on June 2 boosted by a robust sentiment in domestic equity markets on the back of strong macroeconomic data and exit poll results showing a third term for the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government.

A weak American currency and inflow of foreign capital into domestic equities also supported the local unit, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.09 and gained further to trade at 83.04 against the greenback in initial deals, registering an increase of 38 paise from its previous close. The rupee had breached the 83.00 level on March 18 this year.

The local unit clocked the highest single-day rise since April 2023 when it appreciated by 42 paise.

On Friday, the rupee declined 13 paise to close at 83.42 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.06% lower at 104.56.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.06% to $81.06 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 1,912.00 points, or 2.59% higher at 75,873.31 points. The broader NSE Nifty soared 597.10 points or 2.65% to 23,127.80 points in initial trade.

Most of the exit polls on Saturday predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will retain power for a third straight term, with the BJP-led NDA expected to win a big majority in the Lok Sabha elections.

The finance ministry on Saturday said the country’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections grew 10% to ₹1.73 lakh crore in May driven by an increase in domestic transactions, indicating a sustained economic momentum.

Foreign investors were net buyers of Indian equities on Friday as they purchased shares worth ₹1,613.24 crore on a net basis. FIIs bought shares worth ₹95,467.56 crore and sold equities worth ₹93,854.32 crore in one of the record foreign investor activities in the cash segment.

The government data released on Friday showed India’s economy grew by 8.2% in the fiscal year that ended in March, cementing the country’s position as the fastest-growing major economy in the world.

The Central government’s fiscal deficit during 2023-24 at 5.6% of the GDP was better than previous estimates of 5.8% on account of higher revenue realisation and lower expenditure, according to official data released on Friday.

The country’s forex reserves dropped by $2.027 billion to $646.673 billion for the week ended May 24, the Reserve Bank said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the kitty had reached an all-time high of $648.7 billion after a jump of $4.549 billion.

The rupee appreciated by 4 paise to 83.06 against the U.S. dollar on May 27, 2024. File
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee appreciated by 4 paise to 83.06 against the U.S. dollar on May 27, tracking a positive trend in domestic equities, wherein benchmark indices scaled new peaks.

Forex traders said the weakness of the American currency in the overseas market supported the rupee, while elevated crude oil prices in the international market restricted the upmove.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.08 and gained further ground to trade at 83.06 against the greenback, registering a gain of 4 paise from its previous closing level.

On Friday, the rupee rallied for the fourth consecutive trading session and settled with a sharp gain of 19 paise at 83.10 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 104.70, lower by 0.02%.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.19% to $82.28 per barrel.

On the domestic macroeconomic front, India’s forex reserves jumped $4.549 billion to a new all-time high of $648.7 billion for the week ended May 17, the Reserve Bank said on Friday.

This is the third consecutive week of increase in the overall kitty, which had increased by $2.561 billion to $644.151 billion in the previous reporting week ended May 17.

“India’s robust economic fundamentals and significant foreign exchange reserves, which reached an all-time high of $648.7 billion as of May 17, provide a solid buffer for the RBI to counter any downward pressure on the rupee,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

Additionally, substantial foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are anticipated. The Adani Group is planning to raise $3.5 billion through a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP), while Torrent Pharma aims to secure $0.60 billion through convertible bonds or debentures, Mr. Pabari added.

“Given these factors, the rupee is expected to appreciate to around 82.80–82.50 in the near-term, with medium-term projections ranging between 82.20 and 82.00,” Mr. Pabari said.

On the domestic equity market, both the benchmark indices scaled new peaks. The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 168.04 points, or 0.22% higher at 75,578.43 points. The broader NSE Nifty advanced 47.25 points or 0.21% to 23,004.35 points in initial trade.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Friday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹944.83 crore, according to exchange data.

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| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee pared its initial gains and settled for the day 5 paise lower at 83.50 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Monday, weighed down by elevated crude oil prices.

Forex traders said a weak trend in domestic equities also dented investor sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 83.43, then touched an intra-day high of 83.42 and a low of 83.50 against the greenback. The rupee finally settled at 83.50 (provisional) against dollar, registering a fall of 5 paise over its previous close.

On Friday, the rupee inched up 1 paisa to settle at 83.45 against the U.S. dollar.

Forex traders said U.S. dollar demand from importers and a recovery in crude oil prices weighed on the rupee.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on the rise in risk appetite in global markets. However, any recovery in crude oil prices may cap sharp upside. Any renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may also weigh on rupee at higher levels,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.20 to ₹83.70, Mr. Choudhary added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.06% higher at 105.09.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.80% to $83.62 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex advanced 17.39 points, or 0.02%, to settle at 73,895.54 points. The Nifty fell 33.15 points, or 0.15%, to close at 22,442.70 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Friday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹2,391.98 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves dropped $2.412 billion to $637.922 billion as on April 26, in the third consecutive weekly decline in the reserves, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Friday.

In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had declined $2.28 billion to $640.33 billion.

On the macroeconomic front, the seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index fell from 61.2 in March to 60.8 in April, highlighting one of the strongest growth rates seen in just under 14 years.

The rupee settled on a flat note at 83.13 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Friday amid negative equity markets and rising crude oil prices.
| Photo Credit: RAGHUNATHAN SR

The rupee settled on a flat note at 83.13 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Friday amid negative equity markets and rising crude oil prices.

Selling pressure from foreign equity investors weighed on the domestic unit which has been under pressure due to a stronger American currency for the past few weeks, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened weak at 83.17 and traded between the peak of 83.03 and the lowest level of 83.20 against the greenback.

The local unit finally settled flat at 83.13 (provisional). On Thursday, the rupee had risen 15 paise to close at 83.13 against the U.S. dollar.

Experts attributed the sharp gain in the rupee to RBI’s move as well as some softening in the greenback.

“It is worth highlighting that RBI’s intervention, particularly at 83.25, played a significant role in supporting the rupee. Additionally, the rupee benefited from a period of weakness in the dollar index,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities.

Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said the dollar declined after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday cautioned of a possibility of additional rate hikes, if warranted, on resilient economy and a tight labour market.

However, Mr. Powell’s remark that a surge in bond yields helped tighten the financial conditions led to expectations that the central bank may not hike rates for now.

“We expect rupee to trade with a slight negative bias as escalating tensions between Hamas and Israel may continue to deteriorate global risk sentiments. U.S. Dollar may bounce back as safe-haven demand may come into play and crude oil prices may rise further on concerns over supplies,” Mr. Chaudhary said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.05% to 106.20.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures climbed 1.27 per cent to $93.55 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex fell 231.62 points or 0.35% to settle at 65,397.62 points. The Nifty declined 82.05 points or 0.42% to 19,542.65 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday as they sold shares worth ₹1,093.47 crore, according to exchange data.