India- Canada conflict: A flock of birds flies past the Guru Nanak Sikh Gurdwara Sahib in Surrey, British Columbia, Canada, where temple president Hardeep Singh Nijjar was gunned down in his vehicle while leaving the temple parking lot in June. Canada expelled a top Indian diplomat Monday as it investigates what Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called credible allegations that India’s government may have had links to the assassination in Canada of a Sikh activist.
| Photo Credit: Darryl Dyck

Last week, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged that agents of the Indian government were involved in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen, in Surrey. India called the allegations “absurd” and “motivated”. India had declared Nijjar, the head of the Khalistani Tiger Force, a terrorist in 2020, and has accused Canada of providing a safe haven for people who support the Khalistani cause.

Soon after the accusation, the head of Indian intelligence in Canada was expelled. India retaliated by expelling a senior Canadian diplomat. Indo-Canadian relations have been turbulent over the past few years, in large part due to what India sees as Canada’s sympathetic approach towards supporters of the Khalistan movement. Canada has a large Sikh and Punjabi immigrant diaspora population.

On September 21, India suspended visa services in Canada. This has reportedly led to anxiety among students, their families, and other travellers who aspire to go to Canada, especially Punjabis. People who identified Punjabi as their ethnic or cultural origin during the 2021 Canadian census formed the largest share of Indians in Canada, followed by Tamilians, Gujaratis, and Bengalis. More importantly, 30% of Punjabis in Canada belong to the second or third generation (persons not born outside Canada). A higher share of Goans and Tamils are from the second or third generation; however, their overall numbers are relatively lower than Punjabis.

Chart 1 | The chart plots the share of Indians across ethnic/cultural group who belong to the second or third generation (not born outside Canada) on the horizontal axis. The bigger the circle, the more the number of people in that group.

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Indians form the largest share of immigrants, foreign students, foreign workers, and other groups in Canada. India overtook China and the Philippines to form the highest share of immigrants in Canada in the 2016-2021 period (Chart 2).

Chart 2 | The chart shows country-wise share of immigrants in Canada in the 2016-2021 period.

Similarly, the highest number of applications received for permanent residency in Canada between January 2020 and July 2023 were from Indians (4.6 lakh) followed by the Chinese (1.05 lakh) (Chart 3).

Chart 3 | The chart shows the number of applications received for permanent residency in Canada between January 2020 and July 2023.

Chart 4 | The chart shows the number of new study permit applications received by Canada between January 2020 and July 2023.

Indians also submitted the highest number (8.7 lakh) of new study permit applications to Canada in the same period, followed by Nigerians (1.2 lakh) (Chart 4). The highest share of International Mobility Program work permit holders were also Indians (5.4 lakh) followed by Ukrainians (1.5 lakh) (Chart 5).

Chart 5 | The chart shows the number of International Mobility Program work permit holders in Canada between January 2020 and July 2023.

Trade equations have also taken a hit. Canada postponed a trade mission to India that was scheduled in October. It has also paused talks on a proposed trade treaty with India.

Chart 6 | The chart shows the value of items imported by Canada from India in $ between 2018 and 2022. The bigger and darker the circle, the more the import dependency on India.

For instance, Canada imported $1.7 billion worth of medicaments from India in the period, but of Canada’s total medicaments imports, India’s share was only 4%. Canada imported diamond, jewellery and linen products in large numbers from India. It is also highly dependent on India for these items.

Chart 7 | The chart shows the value of the items imported by India from Canada in $ between 2018 and 2022. The bigger and darker the circle, the more the import dependency on Canada.

For instance, India imported $3.6 billion worth of coal from Canada, but of India’s total coal imports, Canada’s share formed only 2.6%. Fertilizers, leguminous vegetables, newsprint and uranium/thorium ore were items that India imported heavily from Canada. India’s dependency on Canada was relatively high was for these items as well.

sonikka.l@thehindu.co.in and vignesh.r@thehindu.co.in

Source: U.N. Comtrade database, Statistics Canada

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