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The rupee consolidated in a narrow range and settled for the day 3 paise higher at 83.58 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on July 16, on firm domestic markets and sustained inflow of foreign capital.

Forex traders said a decline in crude oil prices favoured the rupee, while a strong U.S. dollar capped sharp gains.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.59, and touched an intraday high of 83.53 and a low of 83.60 against the dollar during the trading session.

It finally settled at 83.58 (provisional) against the American currency, registering a gain of 3 paise from its previous close.

On Monday, the rupee depreciated 10 paise to 83.61 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading marginally higher by 0.11% at 104.29.

“The U.S. dollar gained on positive U.S. markets and a surge in U.S. treasury yields on rising expectations that Donald Trump may be re-elected as the President of the United States in the upcoming elections in November,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.68% lower at $84.27 per barrel.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on the strong U.S. dollar and weak Asian currencies. However, a decline in crude oil prices and continued foreign inflows may support the rupee at lower levels,” Mr. Choudhary said, adding that any intervention by the RBI may also support the local unit.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex ended the day 51.69 points, or 0.06%, higher at 80,716.55 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 26.30 points, or 0.11%, higher at 24,613.00 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Monday, as they purchased shares worth ₹2,684.78 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s merchandise exports in June increased 2.56% to $35.2 billion despite global challenges, even as the trade deficit widened to $20.98 billion during the month.

On the price front, wholesale inflation in the country surged to a 16-month high of 3.36% in June on account of a rise in prices of food articles, especially vegetables and manufactured items.

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The rupee pared its initial losses and settled for the day on an almost flat note at 83.50 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on July 4, resisting pressure from elevated crude oil prices.

Forex traders said a positive trend in domestic equities, wherein benchmark indices touched all-time high levels, and significant foreign fund inflows supported the rupee and restricted the fall.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.52 and hit the intraday high of 83.48 and a low of 83.56 against the American currency during the session.

It finally settled at 83.50 (provisional) against the dollar, 1 paisa lower than its previous close.

On Wednesday, the rupee settled 1 paisa lower at 83.49 against the U.S. dollar.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on softness in the US dollar amid weak economic data and rise in risk appetite in global markets,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“However, elevated crude oil prices may limit the gains. Investors may remain cautious ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report tomorrow,” Mr. Choudhary said, adding that $-₹ spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.20 to ₹83.80.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.15% lower at 105.24.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.47% lower at $86.93 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, Sensex breached the historic 80,000-mark and Nifty scaled a fresh lifetime high. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended the day 62.87 points, or 0.08%, up at its all-time high of 80,049.67 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 15.65 points, or 0.06%, higher at a fresh peak of 24,302.15 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Wednesday, as they purchased shares worth ₹5,483.63 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, according to an official of S&P Global Ratings, a sovereign rating upgrade for India in the next 24 months is possible if the central government is able to prudently manage its finances and bring down the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP.

S&P Global Ratings Director, Sovereign Ratings, YeeFarn Phua, said the trigger for an upgrade would be the government (Centre + states) deficit falling below 7 per cent of the GDP, and a lot of this would have to be driven by the central government.

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The rupee appreciated 8 paise to 83.37 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on June 28, supported by a positive trend in domestic equities and foreign fund inflows.

Forex traders said the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and elevated crude oil prices weighed on the local unit and restricted the appreciation bias.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.42 and gained further ground to trade at 83.37 against the greenback in initial deals, registering an increase of 8 paise from its previous closing level.

On Thursday, the rupee appreciated 12 paise to settle at 83.45 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.15% at 106.06, ahead of the crucial U.S. inflation reading this evening.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.47% higher at $86.80 per barrel, as fears of supply disruptions from Russia and the Middle East on continued war offset slowing demand.

On Thursday, there were good inflows taking the rupee higher from Wednesday’s closing level, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

“Inflows are expected on Friday as well, it being the month-end and quarter-end and could take the rupee higher towards 83.35. Exporters may wait to sell while importers may buy the dips,” Mr. Bhansali added.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 347.48 points, or 0.44%, to 79,590.66 points. The broader NSE Nifty rose 114.55 points, or 114.55%, to 24,159.05 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Thursday, as they purchased shares worth ₹7,658.77 crore, according to exchange data.

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The rupee depreciated 10 paise to 83.50 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on June 10, largely due to the rise in the dollar index and US yields.

Forex traders said uncertainty among market players was down as Narendra Modi was sworn in as Prime Minister on Sunday for a record-equalling third term. However, the strength of the American currency in the international market weighed on the local unit.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.48 and lost further ground to trade at 83.50 against the greenback, registering a loss of 10 paise from its previous closing level.

On Friday, the rupee appreciated 13 paise to 83.40 against the U.S. dollar.

According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, the rupee opened at 83.50 largely due to the rise in the dollar index and U.S. yields.

“The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should be present protecting the rupee as existing policies of the government will continue with largely the same cabinet as in Modi-2.0,” Mr. Bhansali said.

PM Modi will be heading a 72-member Union Council of Ministers putting emphasis on continuity, youth and experience, while also rewarding partners in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government.

Along with PM Modi, senior BJP leaders including Rajnath Singh, Amit Shah, Nitin Gadkari, Nirmala Sitharaman and S. Jaishankar, all ministers in the Modi 2.0 Cabinet, took oath as Cabinet ministers at the Rashtrapati Bhavan.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 105.18, higher by 0.29%.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.31% to $79.87 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, both benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, scaled record high levels in initial trade. The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 292.08 points, or 0.38% higher at 76,985.44 points. The broader NSE Nifty was trading at 23,291.50 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday, as they purchased shares worth ₹4,391.02 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves jumped $4.837 billion to a new all-time high of $651.51 billion for the week ended May 31, the RBI said on Friday.

In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had dropped $2.027 billion to $646.673 billion.

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The rupee recovered from the lower level and appreciated 7 paise to 83.44 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on June 5, taking cues from domestic equity markets and lower crude oil prices overseas.

Forex traders said the rush for value-buying triggered an uptrend in equity markets, boosting the local currency which saw a steep decline on June 4 after the general elections results showed a less-than-expected majority for the BJP-led NDA.

Also read | Markets bounce back in early trade after massive drop on value-buying at lower levels

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.50 and recovered some lost ground to trade at 83.44 against the greenback, registering a rise of 7 paise from its previous close.

On Tuesday, the domestic currency settled at 83.51 against the dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.09% higher at 104.14.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, slipped 0.03% to $77.50 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 172.89 points to 72,251.94 in early trade. The NSE Nifty went up 39.25 points to 21,923.75.

Both the indices ended more than 6% lower on Tuesday amid fear selling after the counting of votes showed disappointing results for the BJP-led NDA in the Lok Sabha elections with the alliance facing losses in its strongholds in the Hindi heartland, although it is expected to form the government with about 290 seats.

Foreign investors were net sellers of Indian equities on Monday as they offloaded shares worth ₹12,436.22 crore on a net basis. FIIs bought shares worth ₹26,776.17 crore and sold equities worth ₹39,212.39 crore in the cash segment.

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The rupee surged 38 paise to hit its three-month high level of 83.04 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on June 2 boosted by a robust sentiment in domestic equity markets on the back of strong macroeconomic data and exit poll results showing a third term for the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government.

A weak American currency and inflow of foreign capital into domestic equities also supported the local unit, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.09 and gained further to trade at 83.04 against the greenback in initial deals, registering an increase of 38 paise from its previous close. The rupee had breached the 83.00 level on March 18 this year.

The local unit clocked the highest single-day rise since April 2023 when it appreciated by 42 paise.

On Friday, the rupee declined 13 paise to close at 83.42 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.06% lower at 104.56.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.06% to $81.06 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 1,912.00 points, or 2.59% higher at 75,873.31 points. The broader NSE Nifty soared 597.10 points or 2.65% to 23,127.80 points in initial trade.

Most of the exit polls on Saturday predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will retain power for a third straight term, with the BJP-led NDA expected to win a big majority in the Lok Sabha elections.

The finance ministry on Saturday said the country’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections grew 10% to ₹1.73 lakh crore in May driven by an increase in domestic transactions, indicating a sustained economic momentum.

Foreign investors were net buyers of Indian equities on Friday as they purchased shares worth ₹1,613.24 crore on a net basis. FIIs bought shares worth ₹95,467.56 crore and sold equities worth ₹93,854.32 crore in one of the record foreign investor activities in the cash segment.

The government data released on Friday showed India’s economy grew by 8.2% in the fiscal year that ended in March, cementing the country’s position as the fastest-growing major economy in the world.

The Central government’s fiscal deficit during 2023-24 at 5.6% of the GDP was better than previous estimates of 5.8% on account of higher revenue realisation and lower expenditure, according to official data released on Friday.

The country’s forex reserves dropped by $2.027 billion to $646.673 billion for the week ended May 24, the Reserve Bank said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the kitty had reached an all-time high of $648.7 billion after a jump of $4.549 billion.

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The rupee appreciated by 3 paise to 83.10 against the U.S. dollar on May 28, tracking a positive trend in domestic equities and weakness of the American currency in the overseas market.

Forex traders rupee is likely to trade with a positive bias tracking a positive trend in domestic equities and expectations of fresh foreign inflows, however, a recovery in crude oil prices may cap a sharp upside.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.14 and gained further ground to trade at 83.10 against the greenback, registering a gain of 3 paise from its previous closing level.

On Monday, the rupee pared its initial gains and settled for the day lower by 3 paise at 83.13 against the U.S. dollar.

The opening for the rupee on Tuesday was flattish and the $/₹ pair should move within a narrow range of 83.00 to 83.20, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Importers need to keep buying in dips, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may possibly not allow a big move downside for the pair, Mr. Bhansali added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 104.42, lower by 0.12%.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.24% to $83.30 per barrel.

Going ahead, “the performance of Indian equities is expected to be a significant driver for the rupee, especially as investors position themselves ahead of the Lok Sabha election results scheduled for June 4,” said CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari.

Given these factors, the rupee is expected to appreciate to around 82.80–82.50 in the near term, with medium-term projections ranging between 82.20 and 82.00, Mr. Pabari added.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 124.2 points, or 0.16% higher at 75,514.70 points. The broader NSE Nifty rose 47.95 points or 0.21% to 22,980.40 points in initial trade.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹541.22 crore, according to exchange data.

The rupee appreciated by 4 paise to 83.06 against the U.S. dollar on May 27, 2024. File
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee appreciated by 4 paise to 83.06 against the U.S. dollar on May 27, tracking a positive trend in domestic equities, wherein benchmark indices scaled new peaks.

Forex traders said the weakness of the American currency in the overseas market supported the rupee, while elevated crude oil prices in the international market restricted the upmove.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.08 and gained further ground to trade at 83.06 against the greenback, registering a gain of 4 paise from its previous closing level.

On Friday, the rupee rallied for the fourth consecutive trading session and settled with a sharp gain of 19 paise at 83.10 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 104.70, lower by 0.02%.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.19% to $82.28 per barrel.

On the domestic macroeconomic front, India’s forex reserves jumped $4.549 billion to a new all-time high of $648.7 billion for the week ended May 17, the Reserve Bank said on Friday.

This is the third consecutive week of increase in the overall kitty, which had increased by $2.561 billion to $644.151 billion in the previous reporting week ended May 17.

“India’s robust economic fundamentals and significant foreign exchange reserves, which reached an all-time high of $648.7 billion as of May 17, provide a solid buffer for the RBI to counter any downward pressure on the rupee,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

Additionally, substantial foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are anticipated. The Adani Group is planning to raise $3.5 billion through a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP), while Torrent Pharma aims to secure $0.60 billion through convertible bonds or debentures, Mr. Pabari added.

“Given these factors, the rupee is expected to appreciate to around 82.80–82.50 in the near-term, with medium-term projections ranging between 82.20 and 82.00,” Mr. Pabari said.

On the domestic equity market, both the benchmark indices scaled new peaks. The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 168.04 points, or 0.22% higher at 75,578.43 points. The broader NSE Nifty advanced 47.25 points or 0.21% to 23,004.35 points in initial trade.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Friday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹944.83 crore, according to exchange data.

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The rupee appreciated by 12 paise to 83.17 against the U.S. dollar on May 24, tracking a bullish trend in domestic equities, wherein benchmark indices scaled new peaks.

Forex traders attributed the rally to ₹2.11 lakh crore record dividend by the RBI to the government for the fiscal ended March 31. It was more than double the budgeted expectation, helping shore up revenue ahead of a new government taking office.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.26 and gained further ground to trade at 83.17 against the greenback, registering a gain of 12 paise from its previous closing level.

The forex market was closed on Thursday on account of ‘Buddha Purnima’.

On Wednesday, the rupee appreciated by 2 paise to settle at 83.29 against the U.S. dollar.

After a trading holiday on Thursday, the Indian rupee was on a strong footing following a big transfer of ₹2.11 lakh crore in the form of dividend from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to the Union government, which would improve not only government finances but also allow leverage to spend more on infrastructure, said Anil Kumar Bhansali Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 105.11, higher by 0.01%.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.05% to $81.40 per barrel.

“The overall outlook for the rupee appears strongly positive, with the Nifty 50 reaching an all-time high. These factors indicate that India remains a focal point for investors, with potential for the rupee to appreciate.

“In the short term, the rupee is expected to approach levels of 83.00 to 83.10, while the medium-term target is projected to range between 82.80 and 82.50,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

On the domestic equity market, both the benchmark indices scaled new peaks. The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 51.21 points, or 0.07% higher at 75,469.25 points. The broader NSE Nifty breached the 23,000 level in initial trade.

Moreover, the market capitalisation of listed companies on the NSE surpassed $5 trillion (Rs 416.57 trillion) on Thursday on a day when the Nifty 50 index touched an all-time high of 22,993.60.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Thursday, as they purchased shares worth ₹Rs 4,670.95 crore, according to exchange data.

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The rupee appreciated 3 paise to 83.42 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on May 6, supported by a firm trend in domestic equities.

Forex traders said the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and foreign fund outflows weighed on the local unit and restricted the up move.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.43 against the greenback. It later touched 83.42 in initial trade, registering a rise of 3 paise from its previous close.

On Friday, the rupee inched up 1 paisa to settle at 83.45 against the U.S. dollar.

Indian rupee has not been able to make a dent against the dollar as FPIs and oil companies continue to buy U.S. dollars and ensure it remains range bound, as RBI protects it from depreciation beyond 83.50, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 105.16, higher by 0.13%.

“The dollar was broadly steady as a soft U.S. jobs report boosted traders that the U.S. may still cut rates twice in 2024,” Mr. Bhansali said.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.23% to $83.15 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 434.04 points or 0.59% to 74,312.19 in early trade. The NSE Nifty advanced 91.60 points or 0.41% to 22,567.45 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Friday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹2,391.98 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves dropped $2.412 billion to $637.922 billion as on April 26, in the third consecutive weekly decline in the reserves, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Friday.

In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had declined $2.28 billion to $640.33 billion.