Electoral staff count ballots at a polling station after voting ended in Iran’s run-off presidential election between Masoud Pezeshkian and Saeed Jalili, in Tehran, Iran July 6, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Iran’s reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian was leading in runoff presidential elections against ultraconservative Saeed Jalili, according to early results released on July 6 by the interior ministry.

Officials have so far counted more than 11 million ballots for Pezeshkian and around 9 million for Jalili, electoral authority spokesman Mohsen Eslami was quoted by the official IRNA news agency as saying.

Editorial | Waiting for the reformist: On the Iran election

The final result will be announced later on Saturday.

Iran held the first round of its snap presidential election last week which was marked by a record low turnout.

Only 40% of Iran’s 61 million eligible voters cast their ballots in the first round – the lowest turnout in any presidential election since the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

The first round saw Pezeshkian, a sole reformist candidate, leading the polls running against three conservative figures with Jalili coming second and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in third place.

As none of the candidates secured more than 50% of the votes, a runoff round between Pezeshkian and Jalili was held on Friday.

Mr. Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old heart surgeon, earned the support of Iran’s main reformist coalition including ex-president Mohammad Khatami and moderate former president Hassan Rouhani.

Mr. Jalili, 58, is noted for his uncompromising anti-West position and rallied a substantial base of hardline supporters and received backing from other conservative figures.

The snap elections were originally slated for 2025 but were brought forward after the unexpected death of ultraconservative president Ebrahim Raisi in a May helicopter crash.

The ballot comes against a backdrop of heightened regional tensions over the Gaza war, a dispute with the West over Iran’s nuclear programme, and domestic discontent over the state of Iran’s sanctions-hit economy.

Presidential candidates Masoud Pezeshkian and Saeed Jalili ​attend an election debate at a television studio in Tehran, on July 1, 2024.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

A zealous anti-Westerner and the low-key moderate hoping to become Iran’s next president could struggle to mobilise millions of supporters on July 5’s run-off election amid voter apathy about a tightly-controlled contest.

Over 60% of voters abstained from the June 28 ballot for a successor to Ebrahim Raisi following his death in a helicopter crash, a historic low turnout which critics of the government see as a vote of no confidence in the Islamic Republic. The run-off election will be a tight race between lawmaker Massoud Pezeshkian, the sole moderate in the original field of four candidates, and former Revolutionary Guards member Saeed Jalili.

Both candidates have sought to engage voters by offering competing visions, with Jalili offering hawkish foreign and domestic policies and Pezeshkian advocating more social and political freedoms. Both pledge to revive the economy, plagued by mismanagement, state corruption, and sanctions reimposed since 2018 over Iran’s nuclear programme.

The clerical establishment needs a high turnout for its own credibility, particularly as it faces regional tension over the war between Israel and Iranian ally Hamas in Gaza, and increased Western pressure over its fast-advancing nuclear programme.

But growing numbers of Iranians have abstained at elections in recent years. The previous record low turnout was 41% in a parliamentary election in March, while Raisi won in 2021 on a turnout of about 49%, in which authorities disqualified heavy-weight conservative and moderate rivals.

‘A clash of visions’

“The run-off is a clash of visions: Jalili’s hardline ideology versus Pezeshkian’s call for essential moderation and change,” said Ali Vaez of International Crisis Group. “Beyond opposing Jalili, Pezeshkian must compete with voter apathy and secure at least some votes from this critical silent majority to win the election.”

The next president is not expected to usher in any major policy shift on Iran’s nuclear programme or support for militia groups across the Middle East, since Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei calls all the shots on top state matters.

However, the president can influence the tone of Iran’s domestic and foreign policy. With Mr. Khamenei aged 85, the next president will be closely involved in selecting the next supreme leader. Insiders say Mr. Khamenei is keen on a loyal and compliant president who can ensure a smooth eventual succession to his successor.

The rivals are establishment men loyal to Iran’s theocratic rule, but analysts said Mr. Jalili’s win would signal a potentially even more antagonistic domestic and foreign policy.

Mr. Pezeshkian’s triumph at the polls might promote a pragmatic foreign policy, ease tensions over now-stalled negotiations with major powers to revive the nuclear pact, and improve the prospects for social liberalisation and political pluralism.

To take victory from his hardline rival, Mr. Pezeshkian also needs to attract votes from supporters of hardline parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who finished third in the first round, while mobilising a mostly young population chafing at political and social restrictions to vote for him again.

“Given Jalili’s extremism, I think it’s entirely possible more moderate conservative voters who cast their vote for Qalibaf will either vote for Pezeshkian or stay home next Friday,” said Eurasia group analyst Gregory Brew.

Backed by the reformist faction that has largely been sidelined in Iran in recent years, Pezeshkian’s campaign has been largely focused on “fear of the worse”. “I will vote this time … because Jalili’s presidency means more restrictions … This is choosing between bad and worse,” said Mehrshad, 34, a teacher in Tehran.

With no intention of confronting the powerful security hawks and clerical rulers, analysts said, Pezeshkian is not expected to gain support from many reform-minded Iranians, who have largely stayed away from the polls for the last four years.

“Pezeshkian is part of the establishment. He will follow Khamenei’s orders … Let the world know that Iranians do not want the Islamic Republic, I will not vote,” said university student Farzaneh in the central city of Yazd.

Activists and opposition groups have called for a boycott distributing the hashtag #ElectionCircus on social media platform X.

A woman walks near a banner of presidential candidate Saeed Jalili ​displayed on a street in Tehran, Iran on June 27, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Iranians will vote for a new president on June 28 following Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash, choosing from a tightly controlled group of four candidates loyal to the supreme leader, at a time of growing public frustration.

While the election is unlikely to bring a major shift in the Islamic Republic’s policies, the outcome could influence the succession to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 85-year-old supreme leader, in power for three-and-a-half decades.

Khamenei has called for a “maximum” turnout to offset a legitimacy crisis fuelled by public discontent over economic hardship and curbs on political and social freedoms.

Voter turnout has plunged over the past four years, with a mostly young population chafing at political and social restrictions.

Polls open at 8 a.m. local time (0430 GMT) and close at 6 p.m. (1430 pm GMT), but are usually extended until as late as midnight. As ballots are counted manually, the final result is expected to be announced only in two days although initial figures may come out sooner.

If no candidate wins at least 50% plus one vote from all ballots cast including blank votes, a run-off round between the top two candidates is held on the first Friday after the election result is declared.

Three of the candidates are hardliners and one a low-profile comparative moderate, backed by the reformist faction that has largely been sidelined in Iran in recent years.

Critics of Iran’s clerical rule say the low and declining turnout of recent elections shows the system’s legitimacy has eroded. Just 48% of voters participated in the 2021 election that brought Raisi to power, and turnout hit a record low of 41% in a parliamentary election three months ago.

The election now coincides with escalating regional tensions due to war between Israel and Iranian allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as increased Western pressure on Iran over its fast-advancing nuclear programme.

The next president is not expected to produce any major policy shift on Iran’s nuclear programme or support for militia groups across the Middle East, since Khamenei calls all the shots on top state matters. However, the president runs the government day-to-day and can influence the tone of Iran’s foreign and domestic policy.

A hardline watchdog body made up of six clerics and six jurists aligned with Khamenei vets candidates. It approved just six candidates from an initial pool of 80. Two hardline candidates subsequently dropped out.

Prominent among the remaining hardliners are Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, parliament speaker and former commander of the powerful Revolutionary Guards, and Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator who served for four years in Khamenei’s office.

The sole comparative moderate, Massoud Pezeshkian, is faithful to the country’s theocratic rule but advocates detente with the West, economic reform, social liberalisation and political pluralism.

His chances hinge on reviving the enthusiasm of reform-minded voters who have largely stayed away from the polls for the last four years after previous pragmatist presidents achieved little change. He could also benefit from his rivals’ failure to consolidate the hardline vote.

All four candidates have vowed to revive the flagging economy, beset by mismanagement, state corruption and sanctions reimposed since 2018 after the U.S. ditched Tehran’s 2015 nuclear pact with six world powers.

The hashtag #ElectionCircus has been widely posted on social media platform X by Iranians in the past few weeks, with some activists at home and abroad calling for an election boycott, arguing that a high turnout would legitimise the Islamic Republic.

Iran’s hard-line former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad waves to the media as he leaves at the conclusion of a press briefing beside portraits of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, top right, and the late President Ebrahim Raisi after registering his name as a candidate for the June 28 presidential election at the Interior Ministry, in Tehran, Iran, on June 2, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

Iran’s hard-line former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad registered Sunday as a possible candidate for the presidential election, seeking to regain the country’s top political position after a helicopter crash killed the nation’s president.

The populist former leader’s registration puts pressure on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In office, Mr. Ahmadinejad openly challenged the 85-year-old cleric, and his attempt to run in 2021 was barred by authorities.

The firebrand, Holocaust-questioning politician’s return comes at a time of heightened tensions between Iran and the West over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program, its arming of Russia in its war on Ukraine and its wide-reaching crackdowns on dissent. Meanwhile, Iran’s support of militia proxy forces throughout the wider Mideast have been in increased focus as Yemen’s Houthi rebels attack ships in the Red Sea over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.

Mr. Ahmadinejad is the most prominent candidate to register so far. Speaking after his registration, he vowed to seek “constructive engagement” with the world and improved economic relations with all nations.

“The economic, political, cultural and security problems are beyond the situation in 2013,” Mr. Ahmadinejad said, referring to the year he left the presidency after two terms.

After speaking to journalists in front of a bank of 50-odd microphones, Mr. Ahmadinejad said, his finger in the air: “Long live the spring, long live Iran!”

Before his arrival at Iran’s Interior Ministry, his supporters chanted and waved Iranian flags. They quickly surrounded Mr. Ahmadinejad, 67, shouting: “God is the greatest!”

He descended the stairs at the ministry, showing his passport as is custom to dozens of photographers and video journalists on hand for the registration process. As a woman processed his candidacy, he sat, turned to the journalists, nodding and smiling for the cameras. He was expected to give remarks after concluding his registration.

An election is planned June 28 to replace Mr. Khamenei’s hard-line protégé President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in May along with seven other people.

Former parliament speaker Ali Larijani, a conservative with strong ties to Iran’s former relatively moderate President Hassan Rouhani, has already registered, as has former Iranian Central Bank chief Abdolnasser Hemmati, who also ran in 2021.

Who else will seek to run remains in question. The country’s acting president, Mohammad Mokhber, previously a behind-the-scenes bureaucrat, could be the front runner because he has already been seen meeting with Mr. Khamenei. Also discussed as a possible aspirant is former reformist President Mohammad Khatami, but, as with Mr. Ahmadinejad, whether he would be allowed to run is another question.

The five-day registration period will close on Tuesday, and the Guardian Council is expected to issue its final list of candidates within 10 days. That will allow for a shortened two-week campaign before the vote in late June.

Mr. Ahmadinejad previously served two four-year terms from 2005 to 2013. Under Iranian law, he became eligible to run again after four years out of office, but he remains a polarizing figure even among fellow hard-liners. His disputed re-election in 2009 sparked massive “Green Movement” protests and a sweeping crackdown in which thousands of people were detained and dozens were killed.

Abroad, he became a caricature of Western perceptions of the Islamic Republic’s worst attribute, questioning the Holocaust, insisting Iran had no gay or lesbian citizens and hinting Iran could build a nuclear weapon if it chose to do so.

But Mr. Ahmadinejad remains popular among the poor for his populist efforts and home-building programs. Since leaving office, he’s raised his profile via social media and written widely publicized letters to world leaders. He’s also criticized government corruption, though his own administration faced graft allegations and two of his former vice presidents were jailed.

Mr. Khamenei warned Mr. Ahmadinejad in 2017 that his standing for office again would be a “polarized situation” that would be “harmful for the county.” Mr. Khamenei said nothing during Mr. Ahmadinejad’s 2021 attempt, when his candidacy was rejected by the 12-member Guardian Council, a panel of clerics and jurists ultimately overseen by Mr. Khamenei. That panel has never accepted a woman or anyone calling for radical change to the country’s governance.

That panel could reject Mr. Ahmadinejad again. However, the race to replace Raisi has yet to draw a candidate with clear, overwhelming support from Mr. Khamenei.

After Iran mourned president Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a recent helicopter crash, the nation’s focus turns to an election next month for his successor, with the conservative camp seeking a loyalist to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The lead-up to the early vote on June 28 has opened up the field to a broad range of hopefuls from all political parties. The big question for them is how many candidacies will survive the vetting process in the Islamic republic.

Ultraconservative Raisi, who had more than a year left of his first term, died on May 19 alongside his foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and six others when their helicopter crashed into a fog-shrouded mountainside.

They were laid to rest in multi-day funeral rites drawing mass crowds of mourners.

The June vote will be held during a turbulent time, as the Gaza war rages between Iran’s arch-foe Israel and Tehran-backed Palestinian militant group Hamas, and amid continued diplomatic tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme.

Iran also faces sustained economic hardship, exacerbated by tough international sanctions reimposed after the United States withdrew from a landmark 2015 nuclear deal, and in the aftermath of widespread anti-government protests.

Mr. Khamenei, who has the final say in all matters of state, has assigned Raisi’s vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, 68, to assume interim duties for the next few weeks and organise the June election.

Media reports suggest Mr. Mokhber himself plans to run for Iran’s second-highest post, as do parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and several prominent former officials.

Among other hopefuls, ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili was one of the first to announce his candidacy.

Other contenders include moderate former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, and centrist Ali Larijani, who served as the speaker in parliament.

Populist ex-president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has so far kept voters guessing and said he is “checking the conditions to decide whether to register”.

“We have to wait for positive developments in the country,” he added.

Vetting process

Iran was rocked from late 2022 by nationwide protests sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian Kurd, following her arrest in Tehran over an alleged breach of the strict dress code for women.

Hundreds of people including dozens of security personnel were killed and thousands were arrested.

Political expert Abbas Abdi told the reformist newspaper Hammihan that if Iran’s “protesting community” sees an opportunity for change, it “will show its protest, activism and responsibility through participating in the election”.

He said that he was “sure that the reformists will win with a huge margin”, but only if they are allowed to participate — a major concern after many candidates were disqualified ahead of recent elections.

Mr. Abdi added that if the authorities permit a broad spectrum of candidates to run this time, “it will create the necessary hope in the people and lead to high participation”.

Under Iran’s election process, candidates will have several days to formally register, starting on May 30.

The final list, however, will depend on the outcome of the validation process by the conservative-dominated Guardian Council following a June 3 registration deadline.

The 12-member body, which is in charge of overseeing elections, had previously barred many candidates, among them Ahmadinejad and Larijani.

Recent parliamentary and presidential elections have seen plunging turnout, despite efforts by the authorities to encourage people to vote.

Ahead of Iran’s parliamentary elections held on March 1, the Guardian Council disqualified tens of thousands of candidates.

With many of them reformists and moderates, the vetting effectively helped Iran’s conservative and ultraconservative politicians tighten their grip on power.

The March legislative vote saw the lowest turnout since 1979.

Low voter turnout

The 2021 election that brought Raisi to power also saw many reformist and moderate figures disqualified from the race, and the turnout hit a record low for any presidential polls in Iran.

During his years in office, Raisi faced a barrage of criticism from former officials and activists, including over his handling of an already fragile economy.

Raging inflation, rampant unemployment and record currency depreciation dogged Raisi’s presidency, while his government failed to clinch a deal with Washington to revive the nuclear deal and lift sanctions.

He also faced criticism for the government’s handling of the street protests sparked by Amini’s death.

More recently, spillover from the Gaza war saw tensions with Israel skyrocket and climax in mid-April when Iran carried out its first-ever direct attack against Israel.

Iranian forces and allied groups unleashed hundreds of drones and missiles, most of which were intercepted by Israel and its partners.

Amid all the turmoil, Iran’s leaders have urged a calm election process.

On Monday, the new parliament started its first session with a message from Khamenei calling on the lawmakers to keep away from “useless media contests and harmful political controversies”.