As Iran threatens to attack Israel over the assassination of a Hamas leader in the Iranian capital, its long-vaunted missile programme offers one of the few ways for Tehran to strike back directly, but questions loom over just how much of a danger it poses.

The programme was behind Iran’s unprecedented drone-and-missile assault on Israel in April, when Iran became the first nation to launch such a barrage since Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein lobbed Scud missiles at Israel in the 1991 Gulf War.

But few of the Iranian projectiles reached their targets. Many were shot down by a U.S.-led coalition, while others apparently failed at launch or crashed while in flight. Even those that reached Israel appeared to miss their marks.

Now a new report by experts suggests one of Tehran’s most advanced missiles is far less accurate than previously thought.

The April assault showed “some ability to strike Israel,” said Sam Lair, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies who worked on the analysis. But “if I were the Supreme Leader, I would probably be a little disappointed.”

‘Just terror weapons’

If Iranian missiles are not able to hit targets precisely “that recasts their role,” Mr. Lair added. “They’re no longer as valuable for conducting conventional military operations. They may be more valuable simply as terror weapons.”

Iran has repeatedly said it will retaliate for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh. Israel is widely suspected of carrying out the assassination, though it has not claimed it.

But Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tacitly acknowledged the country’s failure to strike anything of importance in Israel. “Debates by the other party about how many missiles were fired, how many of them hit the target and how many didn’t, these are of secondary importance,” Mr. Khamenei said.

“The main issue is the emergence of the Iranian nation” and the Iranian military “in an important international arena. This is what matters.”

Retaliation had been expected for days after a suspected Israeli strike on April 1 hit an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, Syria, killing two Iranian generals and five officers, as well as a member of the Lebanese Shia militia Hezbollah.

Footage aired on state television showed that Iran’s April 13 assault began with Revolutionary Guard commander Gen. Hossein Salami speaking by telephone with Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Guard’s aerospace division.

“Start the ‘True Promise’ operation against Zionist regime’s bases,” he ordered.

Grainy footage later released showed missiles thundering off truck-based mobile launchers. Iran’s bomb-carrying Shahed drones leaped off metal stands, their engines whirring like lawnmowers through the night sky.

Drones and missiles also came from Yemen, likely fired by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.

Israeli officials estimated that Iran launched 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles.

The U.S., the U.K., France and Jordan all shot down incoming fire. The Americans claimed to have downed 80 bomb-carrying drones and at least six ballistic missiles. Israeli missile defences were also activated, though their initial claim of intercepting 99% of the projectiles appeared to be an exaggeration.

The attack “was very clearly not something symbolic and not something trying to avoid damage,” said Fabian Hinz, a missile expert. It was “a major attempt to overcome Israeli defences.”

U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said they assessed that 50% of the Iranian missiles failed at launch or crashed before reaching their target.

The poor performance may be attributable to electronic warfare measures designed to confuse the missile’s guidance system, as well as potential sabotage, poor missile design and the distances involved in the attack.

Threat patterns

In the past, Iranian threats to retaliate against Israel generally took the form of either attacks by Iranian-backed forces in West Asia or assaults aimed at Israeli targets elsewhere, such as embassies or tourists aboard.

Geography limits the options for a direct Iranian military attack. Iran shares no border with Israel, and the two countries are some 1,000 km apart at the shortest distance.

Iran’s air force has an ageing fleet led by F-14 Tomcats and Mikoyan MiG-29 fighter jets from the Cold War, but they would be no match for Israel’s F-35Is and its air defences. That means Iran again would need to rely on missiles and long-range drones.

It could also enlist help from allied militias such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels to overwhelm Israel’s defences.

Always present in the background is the risk that Tehran could develop a nuclear weapon. While Iran insists its nuclear programme is peaceful, Western intelligence agencies say Tehran had an organised military nuclear programme until 2003.

U.S. agencies said in a report in July Iran has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.” However, building a weapon and miniaturising it to put on a ballistic missile could take years.

Iranians follow a truck, centre, carrying the coffins of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and his bodyguard during their funeral ceremony at Enqelab-e-Eslami (Islamic Revolution) Square in Tehran, Iran, on Aug. 1, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

Iran on Tuesday (August 13, 2024) rejected Western calls to stand down its threat to retaliate against Israel for the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran late last month.

The Islamic republic and its allies have blamed Israel for Haniyeh’s killing on July 31 during a visit to the Iranian capital for the swearing-in of President Masoud Pezeshkian. Israel has not commented.

Iran has vowed to avenge the death, which came hours after an Israeli strike in Beirut killed a senior commander of Hezbollah, the powerful Iran-backed militant group in Lebanon.

Western diplomats have scrambled to prevent a major conflagration in the Middle East, where tensions are already high due to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

In a statement on Monday (August 12, 2024), the United States and its European allies urged Iran to de-escalate.

The White House warned that a “significant set of attacks” by Iran and its allies was possible as soon as this week, saying Israel shared the same assessment.

The United States has deployed an aircraft carrier strike group and a guided missile submarine to the region in support of Israel.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani criticised the Western call for restraint.

“The declaration by France, Germany and Britain, which raised no objection to the international crimes of the Zionist regime, brazenly asks Iran to take no deterrent action against a regime which has violated its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” he said in a statement.

Far-right minister opposes talks

The United States and its European allies also called for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, with difficult talks set for Thursday on halting the conflict.

The Gaza war began with Hamas’s October 7 attack on southern Israel which resulted in the deaths of 1,198 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.

Militants also seized 251 people, 111 of whom are still held captive in Gaza, including 39 the military says are dead.

Israel’s retaliatory military offensive in Gaza has killed at least 39,929 people, according to a toll from the territory’s Health Ministry, which does not provide a breakdown of civilian and militant deaths.

International mediators have invited Israel and Hamas to resume negotiations this week on a ceasefire and hostage release deal, an invitation Israel has accepted.

Far-right parties in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling coalition strongly oppose any ceasefire in Gaza, a point rammed home by firebrand National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir on a visit to Jerusalem’s flashpoint Al-Aqsa Mosque compound that was swiftly condemned by its custodian Jordan.

Defying longstanding rules that allow Jews and other non-Muslims to visit the compound but not to pray there, Ben Gvir led hundreds of Israelis in singing Jewish hymns and performing Talmudic rituals, images posted on social media networks showed.

In a video filmed inside the compound, Mr. Ben Gvir renewed his opposition to any let-up in the Gaza war.

“We must win and not go to the talks in Doha or Cairo,” the Minister said, referring to the truce talks planned for Thursday (August 15).

Mr. Netanyahu’s office said Mr. Ben Gvir’s visit “deviated from the status quo”. It said Israel’s policy on the Temple Mount remained unchanged.

Hamas has urged mediators to implement a truce plan earlier presented by U.S. President Joe Biden instead of holding more talks.

Analyst Esfandyar Batmanghelidj said Iran was considering how to retaliate against Israel without derailing the ceasefire talks.

“The renewed push for a ceasefire offers Iran a way out of this escalatory cycle,” Mr. Batmanghelidj, CEO of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation think-tank, told AFP.

“Iranian officials still feel obliged to hit back at Israel, but they must do so in a way that doesn’t derail the prospects for a ceasefire summit.”

‘Who will take care of her now?’

Pressure for a ceasefire in Gaza has grown since emergency services in the Hamas-run territory said an Israeli air strike on Saturday (August 10, 2024) killed 93 people at a school housing displaced Palestinians.

Israel said it targeted militants operating out of the school and mosque.

In the latest Gaza violence, an Israeli strike killed 10 members of one family in the territory’s southern district of Khan Yunis, leaving only one survivor — a three-month-old girl, a medic said.

“Ten members of the Abu Haya family were killed in an Israeli strike on Abassan in east Khan Yunis,” the medic from Nasser Hospital told AFP on condition of anonymity.

“There is only one survivor from the family, a baby girl named Rim. She is just three months old,” he said, identifying the 10 other members of the family — two parents and their eight children.

The girl, wrapped in a black cloth, stirred strong emotion in the courtyard of Nasser Hospital, a place now known for grieving families searching for dead or wounded loved ones.

“This little girl was pulled out of the rubble. Her whole family is dead. Who will take care of her now?” asked Ibrahim Barbakh, a resident of Khan Yunis, as he held the baby.