A woman walks near a banner of presidential candidate Saeed Jalili ​displayed on a street in Tehran, Iran on June 27, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Iranians will vote for a new president on June 28 following Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash, choosing from a tightly controlled group of four candidates loyal to the supreme leader, at a time of growing public frustration.

While the election is unlikely to bring a major shift in the Islamic Republic’s policies, the outcome could influence the succession to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 85-year-old supreme leader, in power for three-and-a-half decades.

Khamenei has called for a “maximum” turnout to offset a legitimacy crisis fuelled by public discontent over economic hardship and curbs on political and social freedoms.

Voter turnout has plunged over the past four years, with a mostly young population chafing at political and social restrictions.

Polls open at 8 a.m. local time (0430 GMT) and close at 6 p.m. (1430 pm GMT), but are usually extended until as late as midnight. As ballots are counted manually, the final result is expected to be announced only in two days although initial figures may come out sooner.

If no candidate wins at least 50% plus one vote from all ballots cast including blank votes, a run-off round between the top two candidates is held on the first Friday after the election result is declared.

Three of the candidates are hardliners and one a low-profile comparative moderate, backed by the reformist faction that has largely been sidelined in Iran in recent years.

Critics of Iran’s clerical rule say the low and declining turnout of recent elections shows the system’s legitimacy has eroded. Just 48% of voters participated in the 2021 election that brought Raisi to power, and turnout hit a record low of 41% in a parliamentary election three months ago.

The election now coincides with escalating regional tensions due to war between Israel and Iranian allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as increased Western pressure on Iran over its fast-advancing nuclear programme.

The next president is not expected to produce any major policy shift on Iran’s nuclear programme or support for militia groups across the Middle East, since Khamenei calls all the shots on top state matters. However, the president runs the government day-to-day and can influence the tone of Iran’s foreign and domestic policy.

A hardline watchdog body made up of six clerics and six jurists aligned with Khamenei vets candidates. It approved just six candidates from an initial pool of 80. Two hardline candidates subsequently dropped out.

Prominent among the remaining hardliners are Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, parliament speaker and former commander of the powerful Revolutionary Guards, and Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator who served for four years in Khamenei’s office.

The sole comparative moderate, Massoud Pezeshkian, is faithful to the country’s theocratic rule but advocates detente with the West, economic reform, social liberalisation and political pluralism.

His chances hinge on reviving the enthusiasm of reform-minded voters who have largely stayed away from the polls for the last four years after previous pragmatist presidents achieved little change. He could also benefit from his rivals’ failure to consolidate the hardline vote.

All four candidates have vowed to revive the flagging economy, beset by mismanagement, state corruption and sanctions reimposed since 2018 after the U.S. ditched Tehran’s 2015 nuclear pact with six world powers.

The hashtag #ElectionCircus has been widely posted on social media platform X by Iranians in the past few weeks, with some activists at home and abroad calling for an election boycott, arguing that a high turnout would legitimise the Islamic Republic.

People hold a placard with pictures of, as Iranian call them, martyrs, during a rally of Iranian diaspora in Europe, on the eve of the first anniversary of the death of Mahsa Amini, which prompted protests across their country, in Brussels, Belgium on September 15, 2023.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Iranian security forces briefly detained the father of Mahsa Amini on September 16 and spread across mainly Kurdish areas of the country, a year after her death in police custody set off some of the biggest protests since the fall of the Shah in 1979.

State-affiliated media reported arrests of several “counter revolutionaries” and “terrorists” in different Iranian cities and said security forces had foiled plots to create disturbances around illegal demonstrations.

The death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman arrested by the morality police last year for allegedly flouting mandatory dress codes, triggered months of some of the biggest protests against the Islamic Republic’s Shi’ite clerical rule ever seen and drew international condemnation.

Also Read | A year ago, an Iranian woman’s death sparked hijab protests

On Saturday, the first anniversary of her death, a massive security force presence was deployed in Iran’s mostly Kurdish areas on Saturday in anticipation of unrest, according to human rights groups.

But footage on social media showed apparent protests in areas including Gohardasht, a neighbourhood of the city of Karaj west of the capital Tehran, and in the northeastern city of Mashhad.

One video posted on social media showed a group of demonstrators in Gohardasht chanting “We are a great nation, and will take back Iran” while drivers honked their horns and shouted encouragement. Reuters could not immediately authenticate the video.

Also Read | Iran says Mahsa Amini died of illness rather than ‘blows’

Mahsa’s father, Amjad Amini, was warned against marking the anniversary of his daughter’s death before being released, the Kurdistan Human Rights Network said. Iran’s official IRNA news agency denied that Amjad Amini was arrested, but it did not say if he was briefly detained or warned.

Earlier, social media and reports by rights groups spoke of security forces taking up positions around Amini’s home in Saqez, in western Iran.

In a statement on Friday, U.S. President Joe Biden said: “Mahsa’s story did not end with her brutal death. She inspired a historic movement — Woman, Life, Freedom — that has impacted Iran and influenced people across the globe.”

Britain on Friday imposed sanctions on four Iranian officials and the U.S. said it was sanctioning more than two dozen individuals and entities connected to Iran’s “violent suppression” of protests.

According to social media posts, Amini’s parents had said in a statement earlier this week that, despite government warnings, they would hold a “traditional and religious anniversary ceremony” at their 22-year-old daughter’s grave in Saqez.

Widespread strikes were reported in multiple cities in Iran’s Kurdistan region.

Explained | Mahsa Amini and the widespread protests in Iran

However, IRNA said Amini’s hometown of Saqez was “completely quiet” and that calls for strike in Kurdish areas had failed due to “people’s vigilance and the presence of security and military forces”.

It quoted an official in the Kurdistan province as saying: “A number of agents affiliated with counter-revolutionary groups who had planned to create chaos and prepare media fodder were arrested in the early hours of this morning.”

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