A woman walks near a banner of presidential candidate Saeed Jalili ​displayed on a street in Tehran, Iran on June 27, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Iranians will vote for a new president on June 28 following Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash, choosing from a tightly controlled group of four candidates loyal to the supreme leader, at a time of growing public frustration.

While the election is unlikely to bring a major shift in the Islamic Republic’s policies, the outcome could influence the succession to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 85-year-old supreme leader, in power for three-and-a-half decades.

Khamenei has called for a “maximum” turnout to offset a legitimacy crisis fuelled by public discontent over economic hardship and curbs on political and social freedoms.

Voter turnout has plunged over the past four years, with a mostly young population chafing at political and social restrictions.

Polls open at 8 a.m. local time (0430 GMT) and close at 6 p.m. (1430 pm GMT), but are usually extended until as late as midnight. As ballots are counted manually, the final result is expected to be announced only in two days although initial figures may come out sooner.

If no candidate wins at least 50% plus one vote from all ballots cast including blank votes, a run-off round between the top two candidates is held on the first Friday after the election result is declared.

Three of the candidates are hardliners and one a low-profile comparative moderate, backed by the reformist faction that has largely been sidelined in Iran in recent years.

Critics of Iran’s clerical rule say the low and declining turnout of recent elections shows the system’s legitimacy has eroded. Just 48% of voters participated in the 2021 election that brought Raisi to power, and turnout hit a record low of 41% in a parliamentary election three months ago.

The election now coincides with escalating regional tensions due to war between Israel and Iranian allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as increased Western pressure on Iran over its fast-advancing nuclear programme.

The next president is not expected to produce any major policy shift on Iran’s nuclear programme or support for militia groups across the Middle East, since Khamenei calls all the shots on top state matters. However, the president runs the government day-to-day and can influence the tone of Iran’s foreign and domestic policy.

A hardline watchdog body made up of six clerics and six jurists aligned with Khamenei vets candidates. It approved just six candidates from an initial pool of 80. Two hardline candidates subsequently dropped out.

Prominent among the remaining hardliners are Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, parliament speaker and former commander of the powerful Revolutionary Guards, and Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator who served for four years in Khamenei’s office.

The sole comparative moderate, Massoud Pezeshkian, is faithful to the country’s theocratic rule but advocates detente with the West, economic reform, social liberalisation and political pluralism.

His chances hinge on reviving the enthusiasm of reform-minded voters who have largely stayed away from the polls for the last four years after previous pragmatist presidents achieved little change. He could also benefit from his rivals’ failure to consolidate the hardline vote.

All four candidates have vowed to revive the flagging economy, beset by mismanagement, state corruption and sanctions reimposed since 2018 after the U.S. ditched Tehran’s 2015 nuclear pact with six world powers.

The hashtag #ElectionCircus has been widely posted on social media platform X by Iranians in the past few weeks, with some activists at home and abroad calling for an election boycott, arguing that a high turnout would legitimise the Islamic Republic.

In this picture made available by Iranian state-run TV, Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, left, embraces reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian after the conclusion of the candidates debate at the TV studio in Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

A candidate in Iran’s presidential election withdrew from the race late on June 26, becoming the first to back out for hard-liners to coalesce around a unity candidate in the vote to replace the late President Ebrahim Raisi.

Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, 53, dropped his candidacy and urged other candidates to do the same “so that the front of the revolution will be strengthened,” the state-run IRNA news agency reported.

Mr. Ghazizadeh Hasehmi served as one of Raisi’s Vice Presidents and as the head of the Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs. He ran in the 2021 presidential election and received just under 1 million votes, coming in last place.

Such withdrawals are common in the final hours of an Iranian presidential election, particularly in the last 24 hours before the vote is held when campaigns enter a mandatory quiet period without rallies. Voters go to the polls on June 28

Also read | A brief look at the life of Ebrahim Raisi

Mr. Ghazizadeh Hashemi’s decision leaves five other candidates still in the race. Analysts broadly see the race at the moment as a three-way contest.

Experts say two hard-liners, former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, are fighting over the same bloc. Then there’s the sole reformist in the race, Masoud Pezeshkian, a cardiac surgeon who has associated himself with the former administration of the relatively moderate President Hassan Rouhani, who reached Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

Iran’s theocracy under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has maintained its stance of not approving women or anyone calling for radical change to the country’s government for the ballot. However, Mr. Khamenei in recent days has called for a “maximum” turnout in the vote, while also issuing a veiling warning to Mr. Pezeshkian and his allies about relying on the United States.

A widespread public apathy has descended in the Iranian capital over the election, coming after the May helicopter crash that killed Raisi.

After the promise nearly a decade ago of Tehran’s nuclear deal opening up Iran to the rest of the world, Iranians broadly face crushing economic conditions and a far more uncertain Middle East that already has seen the Islamic Republic directly attack Israel for the first time. Iran also now enriches uranium at nearly weapons-grade levels and has enough of it to produce several nuclear weapons if it choses.

The limited options in the election, as well as widespread discontent over Iran’s ongoing crackdown on women over the mandatory headscarf, has some saying they won’t vote.

“I did not watch any of the debates since I have no plan to vote,” said Fatemeh Jazayeri, a 27-year-old unemployed woman with a master’s degree. “I voted for Rouhani seven years ago, but he failed to deliver his promises for better economy. Any promise by any candidates will remain on paper only.”

Worshippers in Tehran at Friday prayers, typically more conservative than others in the city, appeared more willing to vote.

Mahmoud Seyedi, a 46-year-old shopkeeper, said he and his wife alongside two young daughters will vote,

“My wife and I have decided to vote for Qalibaf since he knows how to solve problems of the country because years of experiences but my daughters are thinking about Jalili, too,” he said. “By the way, voting is a duty for us.”

Parivash Emami, 49, another at prayers, said she hoped his vote could help Iran overcome its problems.

“Qalibaf knows details of problems in details, the rest are either critics or promise to solve problems without offering any program,” Ms. Emami said.