Palestinian group Hamas’ top leader Ismail Haniyeh and Palestinian Islamic Jihad chief Ziad al-Nakhala meet with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, Iran July 30, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

On July 20, Israel carried out a massive air strike on Hodeidah, the Red Sea port city in Yemen, that is controlled by the Houthi militia, in response to a drone attack by the Houthis that had hit Tel Aviv. The attack reportedly caused losses worth millions, besides killing at least three and wounding over 80 others. On July 30, Israel carried out an air strike in Lebanon’s capital Beirut, targeting Fuad Shukr aka al-Hajj Mohsen, a top commander of Hezbollah, three days after a rocket attack killed 12 young people at a football field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Israel had blamed Hezbollah for the attack and vowed retaliation. On the same day, Ismail Haniyeh, the political chief of Hamas, was killed at his residence in Tehran. Haniyeh, who was living in exile in Qatar, travelled to Iran to attend the inauguration of Masoud Pezeshkian, the Islamic Republic’s new President. In Majlis, Iran’s parliament, Haniyeh hugged Mr. Pezeshkian, while lawmakers chanted “Death to Israel”. Before dawn, Haniyeh was killed. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite paramilitary force of Iran, and Hamas have blamed Israel for the killing of Haniye.

The common factor of all three groups — Yemen’s Houthis, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and Palestine’s Hamas — is that all of them are backed by Iran, Israel’s chief rival in West Asia. By targeting all three in a matter of days, Israel has dealt a blow to Iran’s influence and taken the region to the brink of an all-out war. Of these three strikes, the killing of Haniyeh, the most high-profile leader of Hamas outside Gaza, would be particularly seen as a victory by the Israelis. After the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas in Israel, in which some 1,200 people were killed, the Israelis vowed that they would target all Hamas leaders who they hold responsible for the carnage. Haniyeh was safe while he was in Qatar, an American ally that was trying to mediate a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. But when he went to Iran, his biggest backer, the Israelis went after him.

Death by Israel 

Haniyeh was arguably the most powerful leader of Hamas after Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi. The wheelchair-bound, half-blind Yassin, the spiritual and organisational founder of Hamas, was killed by an Israeli missile in March 2004. Rantisi, who was appointed his successor, was also killed by the Israelis within a month. Haniyeh, who was the head of the office of Sheikh Yassin, emerged to occupy the vacuum left by the departure of two of the movement’s tallest leaders. He played a key role in mainstreaming Hamas, which was till then seen as a radical resistance militia, among the Palestinians. When Israel was forced to withdraw from Gaza in 2005, Hamas took credit for it. In 2006, Haniyeh led the group to victory in parliamentary elections in the West Bank and Gaza, ending the monopoly of Fatah, the party of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen). As the leader of the Hamas parliamentary party, Haniyeh was invited to form the government in the Palestinian Authorities.

But he faced two challenges. One, the PA’s international backers, mainly in the West, were not ready to accept a government run by Hamas, which was designated as a terrorist group by Israel and some Western countries. Two, Mr. Abbas and Fatah were unhappy with a Hamas Prime Minister. The PA faced a major economic crisis as financial assistance from the West dried up. Tensions broke out between Fatah and Hamas. Mr. Abbas then dissolved the elected Hamas government, a move welcomed by Israel and the West; but rejected by Hamas and Haniyeh. This led to a civil war between the two Palestinian factions, with Fatah expelling Hamas from the West Bank and Hamas capturing Gaza and expelling Fatah from the enclave.

Haniyeh would lead the Hamas government in Gaza before stepping aside in 2017 and elevating Yahya Sinwar, who, according to the Israelis, was the mastermind of the October 7 attack. In 2017, Haniyeh relocated to Doha, while Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, the military chief of Hamas, ran Gaza from within the enclave. Ever since, Haniyeh had been the face of Hamas’s regional and international presence. He played a critical role in Hamas’s consensus-driven decision-making model. By killing him, Israel has dealt a blow to both the militant group and the Gaza ceasefire talks. Will Hamas now accept a hostage deal with Israel which killed its top leader?

And by killing Haniyeh in Iran, where he was a guest, Israel has both embarrassed Iran and exposed its intelligence and security vulnerabilities.

Iran’s view  

In April, when Israel bombed the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, Tehran launched a massive missile and drone attack towards Israel. A U.S.-led coalition shot down most of Iran’s over 300 projectiles on April 14. Israel’s response to Iran’s attack was meek. Iran was sending a clear message to the Israelis — Israeli attacks on Iranian officers would not go unpunished. Ever since, Israel has not targeted Iranian officers or its missions. But Israel is slowly changing the rules again. By carrying out back-to-back attacks against three Iran-aligned militias, Israel is ramping up pressure on the Islamic Republic. And the killing of Haniyeh showed Israel’s capabilities to strike even inside Iran’s capital. Iran retaliated in April when its embassy complex in Syria was attacked, setting new rules of engagement. Can Tehran afford not to retaliate this time, after Israel killed an ally in Iranian soil?  Highly unlikely. 

The fact that the IRGC blamed Israel for the attack itself is indicative that Iran would retaliate. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has also vowed revenge. Tensions on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon are already high with Hezbollah’s rocket attacks. What is to be seen is what Iran and Hezbollah are going to do and what Israel would do in response. West Asia is dangerously close to an all-out war.

Smoke billows after a hit from a rocket fired from southern Lebanon over the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel on July 4, 2024. Lebanon’s Hezbollah said it launched more than 200 rockets and explosive drones at Israeli military positions on July 4 as tensions have soared amid the almost nine-months-old war raging in Gaza.
| Photo Credit: AFP

The Lebanese Hezbollah group said it launched over 200 rockets on July 4 at several military bases in Israel in retaliation for a strike that killed one of its senior commanders.

The attack by the Iran-backed militant group was one of the largest in the monthslong conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with tensions escalating in recent weeks.

The Israeli military said “numerous projectiles and suspicious aerial targets” had entered its territory from Lebanon, many of which it said were intercepted. There were no immediate reports of casualties.

It said about 200 “projectiles” were launched toward the occupied Syrian Golan Heights and over 20 drones into Israeli territory, but that it had intercepted some of them.

Israel after Hezbollah’s attack struck various towns in southern Lebanon. The Israeli military said it struck Hezbollah’s “military structures” in the southern border towns of Ramyeh and Houla. Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported an Israeli drone strike of Houla killed at least one person. Israeli jets also broke the sound barrier over the Lebanese capital and other areas in the country.

Israel on July 3 acknowledged that it had killed Mohammad Naameh Nasser, who headed one of Hezbollah’s three regional divisions in southern Lebanon, a day earlier.

Hours after the killing, Hezbollah launched scores of Katyusha rockets and Falaq rockets with heavy warheads into northern Israel and the occupied Syrian Golan Heights. It launched more rockets on July 4 and said it had also sent exploding drones into several bases.

Nasser was of great importance to Hezbollah, which said he took part in battles in conflicts in Syria and Iraq from 2011 until 2016 and fought in the group’s last war with Israel in 2006. Two other senior Hezbollah commanders have also been killed.

The U.S. and France are continuing to scramble to prevent the skirmishes from spiraling into an all-out war, which they fear could spillover across the region. Washington in its shuttle diplomatic efforts initially hoped for calm along the Lebanon-Israel border in a deal that is not linked to the war in Gaza. However, since the U.S. has called for Hamas to agree to a cease-fire proposal presented by President Joe Biden, it has said that an end to the war in Gaza would lead to calm in Lebanon and northern Israel as well.

The relatively low-level conflict erupted shortly after the outbreak of the war in Gaza. Hezbollah says it is striking Israel in solidarity with Hamas, another Iran-allied group that ignited the war in Gaza with its Oct. 7 attack into southern Israel. The group’s leadership says it will stop its attacks once there is a cease-fire in Gaza, and that while it does not want war, it is ready for one.

Israeli officials, meanwhile, say they could decide to go to war in Lebanon if efforts for a diplomatic solution fail.

Hezbollah’s retaliation comes a day after a senior adviser to U.S. President Joe Biden, Amos Hochstein, met with French President Emmanuel Macron’s Lebanon envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, in Paris.

The fighting has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border. In northern Israel, 16 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed. In Lebanon, more than 450 people — mostly fighters but also dozens of civilians — have been killed.

Israel sees Hezbollah as its most direct threat and estimates that it has an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided missiles.

In 2006, Israel and Hezbollah fought a monthlong war that ended in a draw.