The washout in all three Assembly seats that went to the byelections in Karnataka has again exposed the lack of focus by the BJP on strengthening its cadre in the State despite its strategists repeatedly referring to this lacunae.

Though it is common for the ruling party to have an advantage in byelections, there had been much curiosity around the three Assembly segments that went to the polls on November 13 as BJP leaders were confident that the issues they had raised ahead of the election — such as alleged irregularities in MUDA involving the Chief Minister and the Karnataka Maharshi Valmiki ST Development Corporation ‘scam’, besides the waqf land row — would have turned the tide in their favour. The BJP had launched Statewide campaigns on them.

Little impact from campaigns

But the results have shown that neither the BJP nor its ally, the JD(S), could gain significantly from those campaigns. This is being blamed on the party’s failure to strengthen its cadre. It is no secret that BJP top leaders have been concerned about the party’s cadre, once its hallmark, becoming weak. In fact, many workers in the party have said that the BJP, when in power, had distanced itself from them.

Though strengthening the cadre was top on the agenda of party State president B.Y. Vijayendra when he took over the organisational responsibility about a year ago, the byelection results show that there is a long way to go on that front.

Terming the defeat in the byelections as a “caution bell”, a section of leaders felt that the party organisation would have to give priority to actively engaging workers if its State-level campaigns against the Congress government would have to make an impact.

An indecisive centre

Also, the indecisiveness of the BJP’s central leadership in handling groupism in the State unit appears to have come in the way of strengthening the party organisation. Though the groups of dissidents and those owing allegiance to the State president are holding separate parleys, the party central leadership is yet to take measures to end groupism by addressing the issue.

The byelection defeat has now given a handle to the disgruntled leaders in the party to up their ante against Mr. Vijayendra. One such leader, Basanagouda Patil Yatnal, has already demanded a change in leadership.

Apart from these organisational issues, the byelections have also shown that the BJP lacks a hold on backward classes as the party and its ally could have fared better if it had managed to woo a sizeable chunk of OBC voters.

Two sons in fray

Some of the BJP leaders feel that the party and its ally allowing two former Chief Ministers to field their sons in the byelections may not have gone well with its supporters at a time when the party is attacking the Congress over “dynastic politics”. The manner in which two former Chief Ministers, H.D. Kumaraswamy and Basavaraj Bommai, allowed their sons to enter the fray at the last minute without proper preparations is also being seen as one of the reasons for the defeat.

It is beyond doubt that the defeat has hit the morale of the party and its ally at a time when they were trying to escalate the attack on the Congress government in general and Chief Minister Siddaramaiah in particular over various issues.

Congress supporters greeting party candidate for Channapatna seat C.P. Yogeshwar after his victory in the byelection on Saturday.
| Photo Credit: K. BHAGYA PRAKASH

The emphatic victory for the Congress in the byelection to the Legislative Assembly from three constituencies will give a stimulus to the image of the government led by Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, against whom the Opposition has mounted multiple charges of corruption, and ensure commitment towards the implementation of the five guarantees, which have been criticised by the BJP-JD(S) Opposition combine

The party’s victory in Channapatna, Shiggaon, and Sandur will certainly give a big boost to the government to counter the combined onslaught from the Opposition ahead of the winter session of the State legislature in Belagavi.

Guarantees will continue

As both the Chief Minister and his deputy D.K. Shivakumar gave full credit to the “guarantees” for the party’s victory in the three seats, party leaders maintained that the schemes would continue and become an indispensable part of the electoral strategy in the coming days. The government is unlikely to tweak the guarantees as a large number of beneficiaries, irrespective of their caste and religion, backed the Congress in the byelections, party leaders maintained.

Annually, a sum of ₹56,000 crore has been allocated for the guarantees, which works out to about ₹250 crore for each Assembly constituency. The BJP’s allegations against the Congress government for spending funds on the guarantees instead of development projects seems to have not been validated in the byelection results.

The guarantee schemes, which did not work in a big way for the Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with the party winning only nine seats, are likely to provide more dividends to the Congress in the upcoming elections to the rural and urban local bodies, including the BBMP, the leaders maintained.

CM emerges stronger

The electoral mandate would strengthen the hands of the Chief Minister, who is facing a probe into alleged irregularities in the allotment of 14 sites to his wife, Parvathi, by the Mysuru Urban Development Authority and allegations of embezzlement of ₹187 crore of the Maharshi Valmiki Scheduled Tribes Development Corporation. Buoyed by the byelection results, Mr. Siddaramaiah said he had won in the “people’s court”.

The Chief Minister is also expected to emerge much stronger while dealing with the party high command as the Congress lost badly in the Maharashtra Assembly elections. The Chief Minister is also expected to step up his campaign aggressively against the Narendra Modi-led government at the Centre for delaying/denying funds to the State projects and share in the devolution of taxes.

Boost to DKS

The victory for the party in Channapatna would not only help film actor-turned-politician C.P. Yogeshwar, who has returned to the Congress from the BJP, to re-establish his hold on his home turf after two bitter defeats against JD(S) leader H.D. Kumaraswamy, but also shore up the image of Mr. Shivakumar in the Vokkaliga belt of the Old Mysore region. Mr. Shivakumar is expected to bargain hard with the party high command to provide a responsible post to his brother D.K. Suresh, former MP, preferably a seat in the Legislative Council.

The Congress is also expected to undertake the long-pending Cabinet reshuffle. Non-performing Ministers are expected to be axed to accommodate new faces, sources said.