New Delhi:

The deadly landslides in Kerala’s ecologically fragile Wayanad district were triggered by a heavy burst of rainfall, made 10 per cent heavier by climate change, according to a new rapid attribution study by a global team of scientists.

The team of 24 researchers from India, Sweden, the US and the UK said that more than 140 mm of rainfall fell in a single day on soils highly saturated by two months of monsoon precipitation, triggering catastrophic landslides and floods that killed at least 231 people in Wayanad.

“The rainfall that triggered the landslides occurred in a region of Wayanad that has the highest landslide risk in the state. Even heavier downpours are expected as the climate warms, which underscores the urgency to prepare for similar landslides in northern Kerala,” Maja Vahlberg, a climate risk consultant at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, said.

To measure the impact of human-caused climate change, the scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group analysed climate models with high enough resolution to accurately reflect rainfall in the relatively small study area.

The models indicated that the intensity of rainfall has increased by 10 per cent due to climate change, they said.

The models also predict a further four per cent increase in rainfall intensity if the average global temperature rises by two degrees Celsius compared to the 1850-1900 average.

The scientists, however, said there is a “high level of uncertainty” in the model results as the study area is small and mountainous with complex rainfall-climate dynamics.

Having said that, the increase in heavy one-day rainfall events aligns with a growing body of scientific evidence on extreme rainfall in a warming world, including in India, and the understanding that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to heavier downpours.

According to scientists, the atmosphere’s capacity to hold moisture increases by about 7 per cent for every one-degree Celsius rise in global temperature.

The earth’s global surface temperature has already increased by around 1.3 degrees Celsius due to the rapidly rising concentration of greenhouse gases, primarily Carbon Dioxide and Methane. Scientists say this is the reason behind worsening extreme weather events, such as droughts, heatwaves and floods worldwide.

The WWA scientists said that while the relationship between land cover, land use changes and landslide risk in Wayanad is not fully clear from existing studies, factors, such as quarrying for building materials and a 62 per cent reduction in forest cover may have increased the slopes’ susceptibility to landslides during heavy rainfall.

Other researchers have also linked the Wayanad landslides to a combination of forest cover loss, mining in fragile terrain and prolonged rain followed by heavy precipitation.

S Abhilash, the director of the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), had earlier told PTI that the warming of the Arabian Sea is leading to the formation of deep cloud systems, resulting in extremely heavy rainfall in Kerala in a short period and increasing the risk of landslides.

“Our research found that the southeast Arabian Sea is becoming warmer, causing the atmosphere above Kerala to become thermodynamically unstable. This instability is allowing the formation of deep clouds,” he had said.

According to the landslide atlas released by ISRO’s National Remote Sensing Centre last year, 10 out of the top 30 landslide-prone districts in India are in Kerala, with Wayanad ranked at the 13th spot.

A study published by Springer in 2021 said all landslide hotspots in Kerala are in the Western Ghats region and are concentrated in Idukki, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Wayanad, Kozhikode and Malappuram districts.

It said about 59 per cent of total landslides in Kerala have occurred in plantation areas.

A 2022 study on depleting forest cover in Wayanad showed that 62 per cent of forests in the district disappeared between 1950 and 2018, while plantation cover rose by around 1,800 per cent.
 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Kochi:

The Kerala High Court, hearing a suo-moto case on the Wayanad landslide disaster, on Friday stressed the need for a holistic approach in pursuing developmental activities, so tragedies like that which took place in the hill district could be averted.

It then appointed senior advocate Ranjith Thampan as amicus curiae and asked him to look into present policies and to suggest fresh ones on environmental issues.

The court pointed out that a landslide is a classic example of what happens when the natural environment’s balance is disrupted.

“When you are talking about the availability of a resource and you remove such things from nature, the ecological balance is disturbed. Landslide is a classic example. You create pockets of holes which then lead to such incidents. A holistic approach is very much needed to check the social, economic, and ecological impact of such activities,” it said.

The court asked the amicus curiae to do an in-depth analysis on how the environment can be protected and asked the state government to develop a comprehensive policy on developmental activities.

It also impleaded agencies including the National Centre for Earth Science Studies, the Geological Survey of India, the Union of India, the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Kerala State Disaster Management, the State Environmental Impact Assessment, and the Coastal Zone Management Authority, and posted the next hearing for August 16.

Meanwhile, the over 1,000-strong rescue team comprising personnel from all the defence forces, the NDRF, the SDRF, police, fire service and volunteers began searches early on Friday morning in the four worst-affected areas of Churalmala, Velarimala, Mundakayil, and Punchirimadom. The death toll has touched 413 while 152 people are still missing.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is arriving on Saturday to visit the affected areas and will also interact with the victims presently housed in relief camps.

(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

With a steeply pitched tiled roof piercing misty green hills in southern India and a stream gushing through rocks nearby, the Stone House Bungalow was one of the most popular resorts in the Wayanad area of Kerala state.

It was empty when two landslides early on Tuesday washed away the 30-year-old stone building: staff and tourists had left after rain flooded its kitchen a few days earlier.

But neighbouring dwellings in Mundakkai village were occupied and 205 people, almost all locals, were killed and scores are missing. Tourists had been warned to leave the day earlier because of the rain.

Local authorities are now counting the cost of the disaster and questioning whether the rapid development of a tourism industry was to blame for the tragedy. Weather-related disasters are not unusual in India, but the landslides in Kerala state this week were the worst since about 400 people were killed in floods there in 2018.

Mundakkai, the area worst affected by the landslides, was home to some 500 local families. It and neighbouring villages housed nearly 700 resorts, homestays and zip-lining stations attracting trekkers, honeymooners and tourists looking to be close to nature, a local official said. Cardamom and tea estates dotted the hills.

Experts said they had seen Tuesday’s disaster coming for years and several government reports in the past 13 years had warned that over-development in the ecologically sensitive areas would increase the risk of landslides and other environmental disasters such as floods by blocking natural water flows. The warnings were largely ignored or lost in bureaucratic wrangling.

A fast-growing India is rapidly building infrastructure across the country, especially in its tourist destinations, including the ecologically fragile Himalayan foothills in the north where there has been a rise in cave-ins and landslides.

Just three weeks before the latest disaster, Kerala Tourism Minister PA Mohammed Riyas said in the state assembly in answer to a question that Wayanad was “dealing with an influx of more people than it can handle, a classic example of a place facing the problem of over-tourism”.

The area is just six hours by road from Bengaluru, India’s tech hub, and is a favoured weekend destination for the city’s wealthy IT professionals.

However, officials were unable to share any documentary evidence with Reuters of resorts and tourist facilities flouting building regulations, although they said some had done so.

Noorudheen, part of Stone House’s managing staff who goes by one name, said no government or village authority had warned the management against building or operating a resort there.

There was no sign that the landslides were directly caused by over-development. Residents said regions higher up in the hills were loosened by weeks of heavy rain and an unusually heavy downpour on Monday night led to rivers of mud, water and boulders crashing downhill, sweeping away settlements and people.

But experts said the unbridled development had worsened the situation by removing forest cover that absorbs rain and blocking natural runoffs.

“Wayanad is no stranger to such downpours,” said N Badusha, head of Wayanad Prakruthi Samrakshana Samiti, a local environment protection NGO.

“Unchecked tourism activity in Wayanad is the biggest factor behind worsening such calamities. Tourism has entered ecologically sensitive fragile areas where it was not supposed to be.”

SURGE IN TOURISM

Wayanad received more than 1 million domestic and foreign tourists last year, nearly triple the number in 2011 when a federal government report warned against over-development in the broader mountain range the district lies in, without clearly spelling out the consequences.

“The geography is really too fragile to accommodate all that,” K. Babu, a senior village council official in Mundakkai, said in his office this week as he coordinated rescue efforts. “Tourism is doing no good to the area…the tourism sector was never this active.”

A Wayanad district disaster management report in 2019 warned against “mindless development carried out in recent decades by destroying hills, forests, water bodies and wetlands”.

“Deforestation and reckless commercial interventions on land have destabilised the environment,” Wayanad’s then top official, Ajay Kumar, wrote after landslides in the district that year killed at least 14 people.

Reuters reached out to the Wayanad district head, its disaster management authority, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s office and the Union environment ministry seeking comment but there were no responses.

Mundakkai used to be a small village sitting on the eastern slope of one of the forested green hills of the Western Ghats mountain range that runs parallel to nearly the entire length of India’s western coast for 1,600 km (1,000 miles).

Rashid Padikkalparamban, a 30-year-old Mundakkai native who lost six family members including his father to the landslides, said that the place came to the attention of outsiders mainly after 2019 and turned it into a major tourist attraction.

“They discovered a beautiful region full of tea and cardamom plantations, and a river that swept through it,” he said at a school-turned-relief camp.

Many locals sold their lands to outsiders, who then built tourist retreats in the area, he said.

‘GOD’S OWN COUNTRY’

Kerala, a sliver of land between the Western Ghat mountains to the east and the Arabian Sea to the west, is one of the most scenic states in India, and is advertised as “God’s Own Country”.

But it has witnessed nearly 60% of the 3,782 landslides in India between 2015 and 2022, the Central government told parliament in July 2022.

Studying the ecological sensitivity of the Western Ghats, a central government-appointed committee said in 2011: “It has been torn asunder by the greed of the elite and gnawed at by the poor, striving to eke out a subsistence. This is a great tragedy, for this hill range is the backbone of the ecology and economy of south India.”

The committee, headed by ecologist Madhav Gadgil, recommended barring mining, no new rail lines or major roads or highways in such areas, and restrictions on development in protected areas that it mapped out. For tourism, it said only minimal impact tourism should be promoted with strict waste management, traffic and water use regulations.

State governments, including Kerala, did not accept the report, and a new committee was set up, which in 2013 reduced the overall protected area from 60% of the mountain range to 37%.

But all the states along the mountain range wanted to reduce the protected area even further, minutes of successive meetings until 2019 show. The central government issued drafts to implement the recommendations for all stakeholders, but is yet to issue a final order.

Gadgil told Reuters his committee had “specifically recommended that in ecologically highly sensitive areas there should be no further human interventions, such as reconstruction”.

“The government, of course, decided to ignore our report,” he said, because tourism is a cash cow.

Kerala Chief Minister Vijayan dismissed questions about the Gadgil recommendations, telling reporters his focus was on relief and rehabilitation and asking people to not “raise inappropriate propaganda in the face of this tragedy”.

While experts bemoan tourism-led development, locals like Mundakkai’s Padikkalparamban said it brought jobs to an area that did not have many options earlier.

“After the plantation estates, resorts are the second biggest job-generating sector in the area now,” he said.

But KR Vancheeswaran, president of the Wayanad Tourism Organisation that has some 60 resorts and homestays as members but none in the vicinity of the landslides, said the industry needed to take some of the blame.

“If human activities are going to be unbearable to nature, nature will unleash its power and we will not be able to withstand it,” Vancheeswaran said. “We have had to pay a very, very high price, so let us try to learn from it.”

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Parliament on Wednesday took up a discussion on Wayanad landslide under a ‘calling attention’ motion. In his response, Union Home Minister Amit Shah made several claims on early warning systems in India and how they were utilised to alert the Kerala government ahead of the tragedy. The Hindu takes a closer look at these claims.

Read Wayanad landslides LIVE updates here

What the minister said:

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) press release dated July 18 issued on outlook for a flash flood risk in northern parts of Kerala (among other places) until 11.30 a.m. of July 19.

The extended range forecast, also issued on the same day for July 18-31, carried no mention of Kerala for the period, however.

The IMD press release published on July 23 warned of “very heavy rainfall at isolated places” in Kerala and Mahe on July 25 (suggesting action), and heavy rainfall over isolated/some places in Kerala and Mahe from July 23-27.

The visual sub-division-wise weather warnings under this forecast carried an orange alert for the State of Kerala for July 25, and a yellow “watch” alert for July July 23, 24, 26, and 27. A yellow alert doesn’t specifically call for action.

The press release published on July 25 said that “scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm and lightning [was] very likely over Kerala & Mahe (and other places) over the next five days”, and heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Kerala and Mahe from July 25-29. Visual warnings, as depicted on maps, also showed a yellow alert for Kerala, which doesn’t call for action.

The extended range forecast for July 25-August 7 predicted “scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm and lightning very likely over Kerala and Mahe [and other places], as well as heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places during the week”.

The July 29 press release by IMD issued an orange alert for very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Kerala and Mahe on July 29. The landslides occurred in the early hours of July 30.

A red alert for July 30 was issued in the press release published at 1.10 p.m., after the landslides had occurred. This press release also carried an orange alert for Kerala and Mahe for July 31 and August 1.

One Agromet forecast issued on July 23 for Wayanad district predicted 15 mm of rainfall in the district on July 30, the day when the landslides occurred after extremely heavy rainfall. Agromet, or the Agricultural Meteorlogy Division of IMD Pune, issues forecasts to minimise the impact of adverse weather on crops. Fifteen mm of rainfall is not cause for worry according to the IMD’s categorisation.

In its extended range forecast issued on July 25, IMD’s Meteorological Centre in Thiruvananthapuram predicted “cumulative above normal rainfall” for Kerala during July 2 to August 1, but did not raise any alarms or issue any warnings. August 2-8 was predicted to bring normal rainfall to the State.

The district rainfall forecast issued by the Thiruvananthapuram Met centre on July 26 predicted “light to moderate” rainfall for Wayanad district on July 30.

Mr. Shah also said in the Rajya Sabha that an early warning for rainfall more than 20 cm and possible landslide was issued to Kerala on July 26. The IMD press release published on the day carried no such warnings. Like the previous editions, it carried a yellow watch alert under visual sub-division-wise weather warnings.

After Mr. Shah’s remarks, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan also said that the forecasts issued by IMD, the Geological Survey of India (responsible for issuing alerts related to landslides), and the Central Water Commission (responsible for issuing alerts on river-related floods) were off the mark.

“None of the agencies had issued a red alert for Wayanad ahead of the July 30 landslides,” he said.

Mr. Vijayan also shared an image titled ‘Experimental Rainfall Induced Landslide Forecast Bulletin’ for Wayanad district, issued on July 29 for two days. The bulletin predicted a “low possibility” of occurrences of landslides. This information is not available in the public domain.

Following Mr. Shah’s remarks in Parliament, CPI(M) MPs in Rajya Sabha from Kerala, John Brittas, A.A. Rahim and V. Sivadasan, approached Chairman Jagdeep Dhankhar requesting him to direct Mr. Shah to clarify his statement. Mr. Sivadasan also moved a privilege notice with the Rajya Sabha Secretary-General alleging that Mr. Shah had misled the Upper House and that action must be initiated against him for breach of privilege.

What the minister said:

This is incorrect. India set up the National Monsoon Mission in 2012 (now referred to as Monsoon Mission, MM) to improve the country’s monsoon prediction capabilities. According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the first phase of MM, called MM-I, was completed successfully in 2017.

MM-II began in September 2017 to focus on “predicting weather/climate extremes and development of climatic applications based on monsoon forecasts, especially in the field of agriculture, hydrology and energy sector, while continuing model development activities”.

MM-II is a part of Atmosphere and Climate Research – Modelling Observing Systems and Services (ACROSS). The Budget allocation for ACROSS, however, reduced drastically in 2024. In 2023, a total of ₹680 crore was allocated for it, and the revised estimate put this figure at ₹550 crore. In 2024, only ₹500 crore have been allocated for ACROSS.

What the minister said:

This claim lacks nuance. For cyclones particularly, the 2023 ‘Global status of multi-hazard early warning systems’ report by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk and Reduction (UNDRR) says, “Even with state-of-the-art forecasts, the risk associated with tropical cyclones for a particular location can only be updated 3–5 days before landfall.” Tropical cyclones have caused extensive damage in India over the years.

Roxy Matthew Koll, climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, said that cyclone forecasting in India has improved tremendously during the last few decades. “The forecast models that we have can predict cyclones one week in advance [in terms of identifying them]. Compared to the 1999 Odisha cyclone, the fatalities are now low because we can predict them in advance and evacuate people. Only a few countries have the capacity to develop and run their own models. Many other countries depend on global agencies for weather services. India is assisting South Asian nations in terms of weather services and capacity building,” he said. Since our ocean basins are relatively small compared to the Atlantic and Pacific, landfall happens quicker here which is why risks associated cyclones can only be predicted 3-5 days before the landfall.

Talking about the 2023 Cyclone Mocha, the UNDRR report said, “The Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre in New Delhi provided critical information and guidance products on the formation, projected path and intensity of the tropical cyclone 3–5 days ahead of landfall.”

For rain, IMD’s standard operating procedures on weather forecasting and warning services state that a red-colour warning for extremely heavy rainfall cannot be issued more than 48 hours in advance, as opposed to the “seven days in advance” claim by Mr. Shah. Extremely heavy rainfall, which means more than 20cm of rain in 24 hours, is denoted by a red colour warning by the IMD, and it means “take action”. Mr. Shah claimed that an early warning for rainfall more than 20 cm and possible landslide was issued to Kerala on July 26, which counters IMD’s SOP.

Prediction of exact location and intensity for extreme rainfall events can be erroneous not just for India but even in other forecasting systems around the world.

At least 151 people have died and about 186 others were injured after a series of landslides hit Kerala’s Wayanad district amid heavy rain yesterday.

Here Are 10 Updates On Kerala Landslides

Thiruvananthapuram:

The India Meteorological Department on Tuesday issued a red alert for the mountain district of Wayanad — which has been rocked by landslides triggered by incessant rains — and all the northern districts of Kerala, indicating that extremely heavy rainfall is expected in these regions.

While the IMD has issued a red alert for eight districts, including Wayanad, an orange alert was issued for Tuesday for Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam and Ernakulam districts.

A red alert indicates heavy-to-extremely heavy rain of over 20 cm in 24 hours. An orange alert means very heavy rain of 11 cm to 20 cm, and a yellow alert means heavy rainfall between 6 cm and 11 cm.

The red alert was issued for Tuesday in Palakkad, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod districts in northern Kerala, as well as Idukki and Thrissur in central Kerala.

The Met office has issued an orange alert for Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod districts for Wednesday as well.

Meanwhile, Pathanamthitta, Ernakulam, Idukki, Thrissur, Palakkad, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod district authorities have declared a holiday for all educational institutions including the professional colleges in view of the heavy rain prediction.

Train services to and from northern Kerala has been disrupted due to flooding and trees being uprooted at many places along the tracks.

Due to waterlogging and heavy rains, at least 10 trains were fully or partially rescheduled in Kerala.

The Railways said many trains, including the ‘16305’ Ernakulam – Kannur Intercity Express and the ‘16791’ Tirunelveli – Palakkad Palaruvi Express were short terminated at Thrissur and Aluva respectively.

The ‘16302’ Thiruvananthapuram – Shoranur Venad Express will be terminated at Chalakkudy, it added.

Meanwhile, the Guruvayur – Thrissur Daily Express and Shoranur – Thrissur Daily Express, were cancelled.

The Kannur-Thiruvananthapuram Central Janshatabdi Express was terminated at Shoranur Jn. A number of others trains were also either short terminated or rescheduled partially or fully.

The official death count in the Wayanad landslides has gone up to 123, and includes the count of children and women.

Around 128 are admitted to various hospitals and several people are stranded in many places of Wayanad which is continuing to receive heavy rainfall.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

New Delhi:

At least 24 people have been killed and several are feared trapped after massive landslides hit Wayanad in the early hours today as heavy rainfall continued in Kerala.

250 members of the Fire and Rescue, Civil Defence, NDRF, and Local Emergency Response Teams are involved in the rescue operation. An additional team of NDRF has been directed to reach the spot immediately, the officials said.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan assured all possible rescue operations to be coordinated in the landslides in Wayanad.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed anguish over the loss of lives in landslides and assured Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan of all possible help from the Centre to deal with the crisis.

The prime minister announced a compensation of Rs 2 lakh for the families of those who died. The injured would be given Rs 50,000.

Here are the Updates on Wayanad landslides:
 

• The Chief Minister has announced that the state Health Department has opened a control room. 
• Those in need of emergency assistance can contact authorities on helpline numbers 9656938689 and 8086010833.

• Besides the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority and NDRF, the Kannur Defence Security Corps are also set to join the rescue operation. 
• The Chief Minister also said two Air Force helicopters will depart for Wayanad shortly to join the ops.
• Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has said all agencies have joined the rescue operation in Wayanad. 
• State ministers will coordinate the rescue ops, he has said in a statement.

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spoken to Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and assured all help to the LDF government.
• The Prime Minister’s Office has announced compensation of Rs 2 lakh for the families of those killed in the calamity. Those injured would be given ₹ 50,000.

• At least eight people have died and hundreds are feared trapped after multiple landslides hit Kerala’s Wayanad district.
• Multiple agencies, including the National Disaster Response Forces, have joined the rescue ops in the hilly areas near Meppadi.