Pea plants are damaged by drought, due to the El Nino weather phenomenon in Madrid municipality near Bogota, Colombia, January 17, 2016.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Latin American nations must be on high alert as the weather phenomenon known as El Nino rapidly switches over to La Nina, experts said on Thursday, leaving populations and crops little time to recover.

El Nino and its abundant rains could soon turn into droughts caused by La Nina as well as an intense hurricane season across South America, experts said at a panel organized by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The full weather pattern involving El Nino, La Nina and a neutral phase typically lasts between two to seven years. But experts said that the transition period from El Nino to La Nina is getting shorter.

“We just saw it happen,” said Yolanda Gonzalez, director of the International Research Center for the El Nino Phenomenon. “A year ago we came out of a Nina, and in March there were already signs of a Nino.”

“Now in March, April there are signs of a Nina,” she added. “We haven’t been able to recover from the impact.”

In South America, the weather patterns can hit key crops such as wheat and corn, denting commodity-dependent economies.

The phenomenon is not caused by climate change, FAO’s technical team told Reuters, but experts have seen that the effects of the weather pattern, such as rainfall, heat waves and drought, have become more extreme.

The rapid transitions between El Nino and La Nina could also be correlated with climate change, FAO said, though scientists have yet to establish definitive causation.

“These abrupt changes, and the fact that these cycles are now almost overlapping, ultimately decreases the ability to adapt to the changes,” said Marion Khamis, FAO’s regional risk management specialist. “This implies a huge challenge.”

In this photo provided by Cambodia’s Prime Minister Telegram, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a welcome ceremony in Beijing on September 15, 2023.
| Photo Credit: AP

The leaders of China and Zambia announced an upgrading of their ties to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership on September 15, as the world’s second-largest economy forges deeper ties with the Global South.

Chinese President Xi Jinping also met new Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet earlier the same day, and with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro earlier this week.

The trio of leaders from Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America speak to China’s growing role in those parts of the world. Chinese state banks have financed roads and other infrastructure projects and Chinese companies have built factories, mines, hotels and casinos.

China has in turn won diplomatic support from many Global South countries on contentious debates and votes at the U.N. and from Cambodia in China’s territorial disputes with other Southeast Asian nations in the South China Sea.

Its outreach to the Global South has taken on greater geopolitical import as China seeks allies to push back against growing pressure from the United States and its partners on multiple fronts.

Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported online that Mr. Xi and Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema announced the upgraded partnership at a meeting at the Great Hall of the People, a monumental building on one side of Beijing’s Tiananmen Square.

That came two days after China announced it had upgraded diplomatic ties with Venezuela to an “all weather” partnership — a status China has granted to only a handful of countries — after the Xi-Maduro meeting.

Development loans from China and others have saddled some countries, including Zambia, with unsustainable debt levels, sparking debt crises that stymie economic development. More than 40% of Cambodia’s $10 billion in foreign debt is owed to Chinese institutions.

Hun Manet made China his first official foreign visit after succeeding his father, Hun Sen, who ruled Cambodia for 40 years.

The U.S. had shown disapproval of Hun Sen’s undemocratic moves and is uneasy over the expansion of a Cambodian naval facility with Chinese assistance. Hun Sen consistently denied that Cambodia had granted China the right to set up its own military base at Ream Naval Base.

After his meetings in Beijing, Mr. Hun Manet plans to join other Southeast Asian leaders this weekend in southern China at the 20th ASEAN-China Expo, which promotes cooperation in trade, investment and tourism.

With the headquarters of the ruling party burning in the back, supporters of Niger’s ruling junta celebrate in Niger after a successful coup.
| Photo Credit: Fatahoulaye Hassane Midou

On August 30, Gabon’s president Ali Bongo Ondimba was ousted after mutinous soldiers launched a coup against his government. This comes after a coup in Niger a couple months back.

African nations have seen 220 coup attempts since 1950. Globally, 490 coup attempts were made during this period. So, Africa accounts for 44.8% for all coup attempts.

Of all African countries, Sudan has seen the most coups since 1950. In this period, the country saw 17 coup attempts.

There is a decreasing trend in coups worldwide. Data collected by U.S. researchers Jonathan M Powell and Clayton L Thyne on coups from 1950 to July, 2023 July shows that from a high of 12.3 coups per year on average between 1960 and 69, the figure fell to 2.44 for the decade 2010 – 19.

However, Africa stands out. In the 1950s, most coups occurred in Latin America. On an average, 4.1 coups happened in this region per year in this decade. In Africa, the figure was at 0.5. In the 2010s, Latin America saw no coup attempts, while Africa saw 1.7 per year on average. This is still lower than the 1950s average, but the highest among other regions for the 2010s.

After 2020, we see an uptick in total coup attempts. Four years – 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 (till July) – saw 14 coup attempts in total. This is against the 22 total coup attempts recorded in the whole decade between 2010 to 2019. In 2021 alone, seven coup attempts were recorded, the most since 2012. Six of them were in Africa

Not always a success

As per Powell and Thyne’s definition, a successful coup is one where the chief executive in power remains unseated for at least a week after the coup. Of the 490 coups that Powell and Thyne have recorded, 244 coups succeeded and 246 failed. In Africa, an exactly equal number of coups have failed and succeeded — 110 each. Since the 1980s, the number of successful coups have been lesser than failed coups. The 2020-23 period is an exception, with nine successful coups and five failed ones.

Why do coups happen in the first place? Holger Albrecht from the University of Alabama and Ferdinand Eibl from King’s College, London have studied who starts military coups and what their incentives might be. They stated that measures like increased military spending might discourage top-ranking military officers from starting coups. In the case of combat-level officers, they noted that increased social spending that reflects on their individual welfare might be an effective coup-proofing measure.

Also read |Explained: The coups in West Africa and the regional response

Some researchers say that the pandemic may have had an effect on the economy of countries, exacerbating public dissatisfaction with the ruling governments. Islamist insurgencies in the region add fuel to the flames, leading to coups against governments that cannot or will not tackle terrorists.