Lokniti-CSDS survey pre poll – Artifex.News https://artifexnews.net Stay Connected. Stay Informed. Thu, 11 Apr 2024 01:30:00 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.2 https://artifexnews.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/cropped-Artifex-Round-32x32.png Lokniti-CSDS survey pre poll – Artifex.News https://artifexnews.net 32 32 lokniti-csds 2024 pre-poll survey reveals key issues in 2024 lok sabha elections https://artifexnews.net/article68051581-ece/ Thu, 11 Apr 2024 01:30:00 +0000 https://artifexnews.net/article68051581-ece/ Read More “lokniti-csds 2024 pre-poll survey reveals key issues in 2024 lok sabha elections” »

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People hold posters as they stage a protest against unemployment and various other demands, in Dehradun.
| Photo Credit: ANI

Unemployment and price rise are the key concerns of nearly half the electorate, the CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey in the run-up to the 2024 general elections revealed. This was a significant finding in the first part of a series of articles on the pre-poll survey.


Also Read: Lokniti CSDS 2024 Lok Sabha elections: a package

Nearly two thirds of those surveyed (62%), with the highest among cities (65%), across localities expressed that getting jobs had become more difficult. The numbers for those living in villages and towns were 62% and 59% respectively while 65% of the men shared this opinion compared to 59% of the women. Only 12% said getting jobs had become easier.

The concern was highest among Muslims with 67% saying that getting jobs had become difficult, a number closely matched by Hindus from Other Backward Classes and Scheduled Castes — 63% each and Scheduled Tribes (59%). The opinion that jobs were easier to get was shared the highest among Hindu upper castes (17%), even as 57% of them felt that jobs were more difficult to get.

The opinions on price rise mirrored that of unemployment with a whopping 71% saying that prices have increased, with the number increasing to 76% among the poor, 76% and 75% among Muslims and Scheduled Castes.

While the numbers on these two issues indicate that prospective voters were worried about the state of the economy, the survey also revealed that a near-equal number believed that State governments (17% as opposed to 21% for the Centre, with 57% saying “both”) were responsible for shrinking job opportunities. Corresponding numbers for the issue of price rise were 26% for the Centre, 12% for the State and 56% for both.

Quality of life

About 48% indicated that their quality of life was much or somewhat better, while 14% said it stayed the same and 35% said it was worse off in the last five years. Only 22% said they could fulfill their needs and save money from their household income as opposed to those who couldn’t save but could fulfill their needs (36%), faced some difficulties (23%) and were not able to fulfill needs at all (12%).

A significant section, 55% (quite higher than the 40% of those surveyed in the 2019 Lokniti pre-poll) said corruption had increased with only 19% saying that it had decreased (a fall from 37% who felt so in 2019). And more respondents (25%) blamed the Centre than the States (16%) with 56% blaming them both for corruption.

Notwithstanding these concerns, nearly half of those surveyed said development in the last five years has been inclusive.



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]]> CSDS-Lokniti 2024 pre-poll survey: Issues that are likely to dominate the Lok Sabha election https://artifexnews.net/article68051931-ece/ Thu, 11 Apr 2024 00:20:00 +0000 https://artifexnews.net/article68051931-ece/ Read More “CSDS-Lokniti 2024 pre-poll survey: Issues that are likely to dominate the Lok Sabha election” »

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Job seekers at attend Aspire 2024 jointly organised by District Employment office and Vocational Higher Secondary Department at SRV Government Vocational Higher Secondary School in the city.
| Photo Credit: THULASI KAKKAT

In an electoral battle, issues are shaped through three processes. First, issues that are pushed by the talking classes, the media, the opinion makers, and the like. This is often known as ‘agenda setting’. Second, the political parties try and focus on issues that they believe are of importance and/or issues that they find easy to mobilise. Finally, irrespective of the former two processes, some issues may be occupying the public’s attention because they are part of the actual experience of the voters.


Also Read: Lokniti CSDS 2024 Lok Sabha elections: a package

In order to capture the third set of issues, the pre-poll survey conducted by CSDS-Lokniti asked an open-ended question to respondents to identify an issue that they thought was most important in arriving at voting decision. Three issues appear at the top of the list: unemployment, price rise, and development. While respondents concerned most with development may tilt toward the BJP, voters’ concern about unemployment and price rise may hold a red flag for the party. That such respondents account for half of the sample should be a cause for concern for the BJP.


Also Read: 2024 Lok Sabha general elections LIVE – April 11

In a sense, this is not surprising. The International Labour Organization’s (ILO) India Employment Report, 2024 points out that about 83% of India’s unemployed workforce is under the age of 30. If we compare the present findings with the 2019 study, the proportion of respondents considering unemployment as the most important issue increased from 11% (in the 2019 post-poll survey) to 27% in the 2024 pre-poll survey. Similarly, price rise as the most important issue also witnessed a huge rise of 19% over 2019.

The rich were less likely to raise these issues in the latest study and rural respondents were more likely to mention unemployment and price rise as issues they were concerned with. The less educated were concerned more with price rise while the more educated and the younger voters were more concerned with unemployment.

It might be a matter of curiosity for many that neither corruption nor Ram Mandir were mentioned by voters as their most important concerns. Only 8% respondents mention these issues on their own. However, as we show elsewhere, respondents do have an awareness of both these issues but perhaps only when they are raised in the campaign.

In other words, voters have multiple concerns and some of these are at the top of their minds while others, if raised by the campaigns, too have a potential to affect the voters. How these concerns of the voters will translate into the campaign issues might determine their actual impact on the outcome?

Sanjay Kumar is Professor and Co-director CSDS-Lokniti and Nirmanyu Chauhan is a researcher at CSDS-Lokniti



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