Lokniti-CSDS survey – Artifex.News https://artifexnews.net Stay Connected. Stay Informed. Thu, 11 Apr 2024 01:30:00 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.2 https://artifexnews.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/cropped-Artifex-Round-32x32.png Lokniti-CSDS survey – Artifex.News https://artifexnews.net 32 32 lokniti-csds 2024 pre-poll survey reveals key issues in 2024 lok sabha elections https://artifexnews.net/article68051581-ece/ Thu, 11 Apr 2024 01:30:00 +0000 https://artifexnews.net/article68051581-ece/ Read More “lokniti-csds 2024 pre-poll survey reveals key issues in 2024 lok sabha elections” »

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People hold posters as they stage a protest against unemployment and various other demands, in Dehradun.
| Photo Credit: ANI

Unemployment and price rise are the key concerns of nearly half the electorate, the CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey in the run-up to the 2024 general elections revealed. This was a significant finding in the first part of a series of articles on the pre-poll survey.


Also Read: Lokniti CSDS 2024 Lok Sabha elections: a package

Nearly two thirds of those surveyed (62%), with the highest among cities (65%), across localities expressed that getting jobs had become more difficult. The numbers for those living in villages and towns were 62% and 59% respectively while 65% of the men shared this opinion compared to 59% of the women. Only 12% said getting jobs had become easier.

The concern was highest among Muslims with 67% saying that getting jobs had become difficult, a number closely matched by Hindus from Other Backward Classes and Scheduled Castes — 63% each and Scheduled Tribes (59%). The opinion that jobs were easier to get was shared the highest among Hindu upper castes (17%), even as 57% of them felt that jobs were more difficult to get.

The opinions on price rise mirrored that of unemployment with a whopping 71% saying that prices have increased, with the number increasing to 76% among the poor, 76% and 75% among Muslims and Scheduled Castes.

While the numbers on these two issues indicate that prospective voters were worried about the state of the economy, the survey also revealed that a near-equal number believed that State governments (17% as opposed to 21% for the Centre, with 57% saying “both”) were responsible for shrinking job opportunities. Corresponding numbers for the issue of price rise were 26% for the Centre, 12% for the State and 56% for both.

Quality of life

About 48% indicated that their quality of life was much or somewhat better, while 14% said it stayed the same and 35% said it was worse off in the last five years. Only 22% said they could fulfill their needs and save money from their household income as opposed to those who couldn’t save but could fulfill their needs (36%), faced some difficulties (23%) and were not able to fulfill needs at all (12%).

A significant section, 55% (quite higher than the 40% of those surveyed in the 2019 Lokniti pre-poll) said corruption had increased with only 19% saying that it had decreased (a fall from 37% who felt so in 2019). And more respondents (25%) blamed the Centre than the States (16%) with 56% blaming them both for corruption.

Notwithstanding these concerns, nearly half of those surveyed said development in the last five years has been inclusive.



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CSDS-Lokniti 2024 pre-poll survey: Issues that are likely to dominate the Lok Sabha election https://artifexnews.net/article68051931-ece/ Thu, 11 Apr 2024 00:20:00 +0000 https://artifexnews.net/article68051931-ece/ Read More “CSDS-Lokniti 2024 pre-poll survey: Issues that are likely to dominate the Lok Sabha election” »

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Job seekers at attend Aspire 2024 jointly organised by District Employment office and Vocational Higher Secondary Department at SRV Government Vocational Higher Secondary School in the city.
| Photo Credit: THULASI KAKKAT

In an electoral battle, issues are shaped through three processes. First, issues that are pushed by the talking classes, the media, the opinion makers, and the like. This is often known as ‘agenda setting’. Second, the political parties try and focus on issues that they believe are of importance and/or issues that they find easy to mobilise. Finally, irrespective of the former two processes, some issues may be occupying the public’s attention because they are part of the actual experience of the voters.


Also Read: Lokniti CSDS 2024 Lok Sabha elections: a package

In order to capture the third set of issues, the pre-poll survey conducted by CSDS-Lokniti asked an open-ended question to respondents to identify an issue that they thought was most important in arriving at voting decision. Three issues appear at the top of the list: unemployment, price rise, and development. While respondents concerned most with development may tilt toward the BJP, voters’ concern about unemployment and price rise may hold a red flag for the party. That such respondents account for half of the sample should be a cause for concern for the BJP.


Also Read: 2024 Lok Sabha general elections LIVE – April 11

In a sense, this is not surprising. The International Labour Organization’s (ILO) India Employment Report, 2024 points out that about 83% of India’s unemployed workforce is under the age of 30. If we compare the present findings with the 2019 study, the proportion of respondents considering unemployment as the most important issue increased from 11% (in the 2019 post-poll survey) to 27% in the 2024 pre-poll survey. Similarly, price rise as the most important issue also witnessed a huge rise of 19% over 2019.

The rich were less likely to raise these issues in the latest study and rural respondents were more likely to mention unemployment and price rise as issues they were concerned with. The less educated were concerned more with price rise while the more educated and the younger voters were more concerned with unemployment.

It might be a matter of curiosity for many that neither corruption nor Ram Mandir were mentioned by voters as their most important concerns. Only 8% respondents mention these issues on their own. However, as we show elsewhere, respondents do have an awareness of both these issues but perhaps only when they are raised in the campaign.

In other words, voters have multiple concerns and some of these are at the top of their minds while others, if raised by the campaigns, too have a potential to affect the voters. How these concerns of the voters will translate into the campaign issues might determine their actual impact on the outcome?

Sanjay Kumar is Professor and Co-director CSDS-Lokniti and Nirmanyu Chauhan is a researcher at CSDS-Lokniti



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CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey | In search of a dignified economic life https://artifexnews.net/article68050279-ece/ Thu, 11 Apr 2024 00:15:00 +0000 https://artifexnews.net/article68050279-ece/ Read More “CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey | In search of a dignified economic life” »

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People find it hard to get economically sustainable occupations in big cities, small towns, and even in rural areas. Image for representation. File
| Photo Credit: AFP

Price rise and unemployment have emerged as serious concerns for a significant majority of Indians. There is a consensus that employment opportunities at all levels have gone down in the last five years. At the same time, the prices of essential commodities continue to increase. The interlinkages between these two issues have affected the ability of a household to maintain its standard of living in the ever-changing economic life of the country. Our Pre-poll survey findings, broadly speaking, underlines four crucial factors in this regard. These factors will have an important role to play in this election, and they will have an impact on the future trajectories of Indian democracy.

First, the employment situation in the country is very critical. Over 60 percent of our respondents assert that getting a job has become much more difficult now (Table 1). The magnitude of unemployment is so alarming that the conventional rural-urban divide has become almost irrelevant.


Also Read: Lokniti CSDS 2024 Lok Sabha elections: a package

Survey data shows that the unemployment crisis is not restricted to any particular spatial location. People find it hard to get economically sustainable occupations in big cities, small towns, and even in rural areas (Table 2). This trend has also affected the gender dimension of employment. It is found that work opportunities have reduced considerably for women. It simply means that the question of economic sustainability is going to emerge as a key political question in future electoral discourse.

Second, price rise has disturbed the everyday economic equilibrium of individual households. The survey findings show that 71 percent of respondents claim that prices have increased considerably in the last five years (Table 3). Although the price rise as a monetary concern has affected all economic classes, the poor, low-income groups, and marginalised rural communities are the worst sufferers in this regard (Table 4). This economic marginalisation of a vast majority of Indians underlines the fact that economic disparity is increasing with an alarming pace.

Third, the growing economic crisis has an interesting social dimension. Table 5 shows that all social groups claim that unemployment and price rise are affecting their economic life. The marginalised social groups (dalits, adivasis and muslims) however, are more vocal than others. In fact, 67% of Muslims assert that finding a job has become very difficult for them. Similarly, Muslims are also comparatively more concerned about the price rise (76%). It shows that the economic questions are interpreted through the prism of social identity at the grassroots level (Table 6). This makes the idea of social justice more comprehensive and meaningful. Poor and marginalised Indian communities desire to have economic sustainability without giving up the idea of social justice.

Finally, our findings also show the relationship between economic hardship and political expectations. We find that a majority of respondents (Table 7) believe that both the Central government and State governments are responsible for shrinking employment opportunities and price rises (Table 8). This perception can be interpreted in two related ways. There is a clear expectation from the State to intervene in the economic life of the country for creating a level playing field for all sections of society. In this sense, the dominant political consensus that the market-driven liberal economy can regulate itself and there is no need for State intervention becomes clearly contested. At the same time, this finding also underscores the limits of what I call charitable State — a State that provides welfare as charity not as a right. Our previous studies have shown that there has been an acceptability for welfare schemes introduced by the different governments in favour of poor and marginalised communities. However, this State charity is not seen as a permanent solution. Instead, there is an assertion that the State should ensure the possibilities of dignified employment. It will be interesting to see how this politics of economic dignity is translated into actual electoral outcomes.

(Hilal Ahmed is Associate professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies)



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