New Delhi:

The ruling Mahayuti has crossed the majority mark – 145 – in early leads as counting began Saturday for the Maharashtra Assembly election. The alliance – fronted by the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party factions led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar – was ahead in 147 seats by 9.20 am. The Maha Vikas Aghadi  – the Congress and the Sena and NCP groups led by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar – is ahead in 84. Non-aligned parties are ahead in nine.

Within the Mahayuti, it is the BJP that is ahead; the saffron party is leading in 66 of the 149 seats it is contesting. The Shinde Sena is ahead in 29 of the 81 it is contesting and Ajit Pawar’s NCP 16 of 59.

Across the aisle in the MVA, the Congress is leading in 33 of the 101 seats it has entered, while Sharad Pawar’s NCP is ahead in 25 of 86 and the Thackeray Sena in 19 of 95.

Big Names

Outgoing Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and his deputy, Ajit Pawar, and Aaditya Thackeray, the son of ex-Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, are among the many big names contesting this election. Also in the spotlight is Zeeshan Siddiqui of the Ajit Pawar NCP faction; Mr Siddiqui is the son of ex-Maharashtra minister Baba Siddiqui, who was shot dead by the Lawrence Bishnoi gang last month.

Eknath Shinde faces Thackeray Sena leader Kedar Dighe – the nephew of his mentor, Anand Dighe – for Thane’s Kopri-Pachpakhadi seat. Mr Shinde leads by over 4,000 votes.

Ajit Pawar faces a Pawar vs Pawar battle against uncle Sharad Pawar’s grandnephew, Yugendra Pawar, in the family stronghold of Baramati.

Aaditya Thackeray is up against former Congress veteran Milind Deora, who jumped to the Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena this year. The two are contesting the Worli Assembly seat.

Zeeshan Siddiqui faces Varun Sardesai, Uddhav Thackeray’s nephew, in Bandra (East).

Voting for this election took place in a single phase on Wednesday.

The Maharashtra Assembly has 288 seats and the majority mark is 145.

What Exit Polls Said

The MVA had only been given a (very) slim chance of upsetting the in-power BJP-led alliance’s applecart in the final election of the year; only one of 11 exit polls studied by NDTV believed it can win. Three others were on the fence but even they tilted to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party.

An average of those 11 exit polls gives the Mahayuti 155 seats and the MVA only 120, with smaller parties and independent candidates expected to get the remaining 13.

But a health warning: exit polls often get it wrong.

Exit Poll Numbers

A majority of the exit polls predicted a big win for the Mahayuti.

In fact, of those studied by Axis-My India, Peoples Pulse, Poll Diary, and Today’s Chanakya have each given the BJP-led alliance a minimum of 175 seats. Chanakya Strategies, Matrize, and Times Now-JVC also expect victory for the BJP’s coalition, with at least 150 seats.

Across the aisle, only Electoral Edge expects the Congress’ alliance to win and, even then, by five seats only, with 20 seats from smaller parties and independents in play for the BJP.

READ | NDA Has Edge But 3 Exit Polls Predict Hung Assembly

The Dainik Bhaskar, Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra, and P-Marq exit polls are on the fence, although the latter favours the Mahayuti with an upper prediction of 157 and the former the MVA with 150.

However, Thackeray Sena MP Sanjay Raut has rubbished the predictions, pointing to incorrect previews of the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir elections and insisting the MVA will win.

READ | Mahayuti vs MVA On “Fraud” Exit Polls As Maharashtra Awaits Result

“They said Congress would win Haryana but what happened? They said Modiji would get 400 seats in the Lok Sabha… but what happened there? You will see… we will win 160-165 seats,” he declared.

Voter Turnout

Polling on Wednesday saw a voter turnout of 65.1 per cent – the highest since the 63.4 per cent recorded for the 2004 and 2014 elections and the second highest since 71.5 per cent in 1995.

The increased voter turnout has been flagged by both alliances as ‘proof positive’ that their side will emerge triumphant when votes are counted, although conventional wisdom suggests high voter turnout is bad news for the incumbent party or candidate.

READ | 65.1% Voter Turnout Is 2nd Highest 1990s, Highest In A Decade

Senior BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis declared, “Increase in voting percentage means it is in favour of the current government… it means people are supporting the current government.”

Race For Chief Minister’s Post

Meanwhile, away from the ballot boxes there is jostling and shoving offstage as senior figures within each alliance bid to replace Mr Shinde as Chief Minister. And that race looks to have exposed cracks in each alliance, with each party talking up its candidates for the top post.

Claims by the Congress’ state unit chief, Nana Patole, that his party would emerge as the single-largest and therefore be in pole position to pick the Chief Minister have been contested by Mr Raut, who said the final decision will be taken after victory is confirmed and by all stakeholders.

READ | Who Will Be Chief Minister? NDA, MVA Ministers Stake Claim

In the Mahayuti, the Shinde Sena and the BJP appear to be at odds on the same issue, with the former batting for Mr Shinde to continue and the latter pitching Mr Fadnavis, who was the Chief Minister when the BJP and (then) undivided Sena were in power between 2014 and 2019.

And the NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar has thrown its hat in the ring too, on the back of hopes it will emerge as the ‘kingmaker’, although the question of which side it will help crown was waved away.

What Happened In 2019?

The 2019 election resulted in a thumping win for the BJP and the undivided Sena; the saffron party won 105 seats (down 17 from 2014) and its ally 56 (down seven).

However, two long-time allies fell out, quite spectacularly, in the following days after they failed to agree a power-sharing deal. Mr Thackeray then led his Sena into a surprise alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (then also undivided) to shut out a furious BJP.

Much to the surprise of many, the ruling tripartite alliance lasted for nearly three years despite the divergent political beliefs and ideologies of the Sena and the Congress-NCP.

Eventually, it was an internal rebellion led by Sena leader Eknath Shinde that ousted the MVA government. Mr Shinde led Sena lawmakers into a deal with the BJP, forcing Mr Thackeray to resign and allowing himself to be named as the new Chief Minister.

The NCP split a year later in a near-identical process that saw Ajit Pawar and lawmakers loyal to him joining the BJP-Shinde Sena, and he then became a Deputy Chief Minister.

Since then, Maharashtra politics has been roiled in controversy that extended to the Supreme Court, which heard petitions and cross-petitions on disqualification of MLAs and, in the build-up to this election, pleas on which Sena and NCP faction is the ‘real’ one.

With input from agencies

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New Delhi:

Voting for the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly election may be over – the single-phase poll was held Wednesday – but verbal jousting betwixt the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi rumbles on, with each hotly disputing last night’s exit polls and proclaiming grand wins for their parties.

Five of nine exit polls studied by NDTV indicate the Mahayuti will ease to victory. Three believe neither side will gain a clear advantage. And only one exit pollster gives the MVA an outright win.

But a health warning: exit polls often get it wrong, as they did in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir; in the former the Congress was declared the winner, while the Congress-National Conference alliance was favoured in the latter. As it turned out, the BJP won Haryana and the NC (on its own) swept J&K.

READ | Mahayuti Has Edge In Maharashtra But 3 Of 9 Exit Polls Predict Hung House

However, ahead of the counting of votes on Saturday, the BJP, the Congress, and the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party factions have come out swinging to claim victory for themselves.

Mahayuti vs MVA Over Exit Polls

For the BJP, outgoing Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis pointed triumphantly at the increased voting percentage across Maharashtra and said, “…whenever the percentage increases, it benefits the BJP and the alliance. I am confident we will benefit this time too.”

Maharashtra recorded an estimated 65 per cent turnout; the 2019 figure was 61.74 per cent. The rule of thumb is that large (or larger) voter turnouts spell trouble for the incumbent party.

Mr Fadnavis, though, argued the opposite, insisting, “Increase in voting percentage means it is in favour of the current government… it means people are supporting the current government.”

On the other side of the fence is Sena MP Sanjay Raut, ex-Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray’s troubleshooter, who declared exit polls a “fraud” and insisted the MVA will win this election.

Mr Raut pointed to wrong predictions for the Haryana and J&K elections, and the April-June federal election, in which the BJP was widely expected to cross the 400-seat mark but was pegged by back by the Congress-led INDIA opposition bloc, which includes the Thackeray Sena.

“Look… people do not always speak their mind (about whom they voted for). So, someone says ‘we will take a sample of 4,000 people and say this person is winning, that person is winning’… but the result is different. They said Congress would win Haryana but what happened? They said Modiji would get 400 seats in the Lok Sabha… but what happened there? You will see… we will win 160-165 seats,” he said.

It isn’t just Mr Fadnavis and Mr Raut who have been talking up their alliance’s chances.

Shinde Sena leader Shaina NC mocked her rivals, saying, “… your boat has sunk.”

The Congress’ Maharashtra unit boss, Nana Patole, is equally insistent the MVA will triumph, declaring voters are “angry with the BJP alliance” and praising the voting percentage increase.

READ | “Defeat Predicted, Will Win”: Nana Patole On Maharashtra Exit Polls

The BJP’s Milind Deora was equally convinced about a victory of the Mahayuti. “I am not into numbers… but we will definitely win”. The reason for his confidence, he told NDTV, was the alliance worked its way back from the Lok Sabha setback and “left no stones unturned” to ensure victory.

The Maharashtra Election Numbers Game

The Maharashtra Assembly has 288 seats. The majority mark is 145.

An average of exit polls gives the BJP’s coalition – which includes the Sena faction led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and the NCP group led by Ajit Pawar – 150 seats. The Congress and its allies – the Sena and NCP factions of Mr Thackeray and Sharad Pawar – have been given 125.

READ | Advantage BJP+ In Maharashtra, Close Fight In Jharkhand: Exit Polls

The only outlier is Electoral Edge, which says the MVA will get 150 seats and the Mahayuti 118.

What Happened In 2019?

The 2019 Maharashtra election resulted in a thumping win for the BJP and (then undivided) Sena; the saffron party won 105 seats (down 17 from 2014) and its ally 56 (down seven).

However, two long-time allies fell out, quite spectacularly, in the following days after they failed to agree a power-sharing deal. Mr Thackeray then led his Sena into a surprise alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (then also undivided) to shut out a furious BJP.

Much to the surprise of many, the ruling tripartite alliance lasted for nearly three years despite the divergent political beliefs and ideologies of the Sena and the Congress-NCP.

Eventually, it was an internal rebellion led by Mr Shinde that ousted the MVA government. He led Sena lawmakers into a deal with the BJP, forcing Mr Thackeray to resign and was named Chief Minister.

Since then, Maharashtra politics has been roiled in controversy that extended to the Supreme Court, which heard petitions and cross-petitions on disqualification of MLAs and, in the build-up to this election, pleas on which Sena and NCP faction is the ‘real’ one.

The NCP split a year later in a near-identical process that saw Ajit Pawar and lawmakers loyal to him joining the BJP-Shinde Sena, and he then became a Deputy Chief Minister.

With input from agencies

NDTV is now available on WhatsApp channels. Click on the link to get all the latest updates from NDTV on your chat.