Mumbai:

Senior BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis met outgoing Shiv Sena boss Eknath Shinde in Mumbai Tuesday evening, amid continuing suspense, and an absorbing tug-of-war, over the identity of the next Maharashtra Chief Minister. The meeting is being seen as an outreach by the BJP – to placate an ally who will likely be removed from the top post despite leading a government that was re-elected.

The big decision is expected within 24 hours; the BJP’s newly elected MLAs are meeting tonight – with Union Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and ex-Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani as ‘observers’ from the central leadership – to choose a legislature party leader, who will then become the new Chief Minister.

The smart money is on Mr Fadnavis, a two-time former Chief Minister and the man widely credited with orchestrating the BJP’s comeback, including hobbling the formerly undivided Sena and NCP and picking up the pieces; the breakaway factions added 75 seats to the BJP’s tally in this election.

However, for Mr Fadnavis to return to the top post Eknath Shinde must be persuaded to stand down, and possibly even accept a deputy’s berth, like the BJP leader did in 2022. And it is at that point the BJP’s plans to reclaim power in Maharashtra, without again antagonising a Sena ally, have hit a snag.

The Eknath Shinde Factor

Last week Mr Shinde, after days of public posturing, backed down. He said he spoke to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and said he would not be an “obstacle” to a BJP Chief Minister.

READ | “Won’t Obstruct”: In Maharashtra Race, E Shinde Leaves It To BJP

However, there remains a feeling that Mr Shinde and his party are displeased at being told to stand down. Mr Shinde’s absence from Mumbai last week – he retreated to his hometown in Satara district – raised eyebrows, as did the BJP simultaneously announcing a swearing-in date – December 5.

There was more drama this afternoon after Mr Shinde was admitted to a hospital in Thane, where he has been based since returning from Satara. The Sena leader, however, played down talk of an emergency – his team called it a “routine check-up” – and said, “sab badiya hain (everything is fine).”

And while Mr Shinde has made all the right noises, some within his party have not. Sena leader Deepak Kesarkar has reminded the BJP the election was fought under the Mr Shinde’s leadership.

“Now it is up to the BJP’s central leadership to decide how to maintain his stature.”

‘1+2’ Formula To Continue?

Sources have told NDTV over the past week the existing 1+2 formula established after the mid-term switch, i.e., a Chief Minister and two deputies, will continue, except the ‘1’ will be from the BJP.

The Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction will each name a Deputy Chief Minister. To sweeten the deal, the former will get 12 portfolios, including, possibly, the covered Urban Development, Public Works Department, and Water Resources ministries. The latter will get nine, including Finance.

READ | Maharashtra Chief Minister From BJP, Will Have 2 Deputies: Sources

This also means Mr Pawar will likely return as Deputy Chief Minister. But it is unclear if Eknath Shinde will be happy with that ‘demotion’. A possible workaround had been suggested – that he could get a union ministerial berth and his son, Shrikant Shinde, could become the Deputy Chief Minister.

READ | E Shinde’s Son Junks Deputy Buzz In Maharashtra Race

Shinde junior, however, has rubbished, at least publicly, that idea.

महायुतीच्या सरकारचा शपथविधी थोडा लांबल्यामुळे सध्या चर्चा आणि अफवा यांचे पीक फोफावले आहे. काळजीवाहू मुख्यमंत्री मा. श्री एकनाथ शिंदे यांनी प्रकृती अस्वास्थ्यामुळे दोन दिवस गावी जाऊन विश्रांती घेतली. त्यामुळे अफवांना अधिकच बहर आला. मी उपमुख्यमंत्री होणार अशा बातम्या प्रश्नचिन्हे…

— Dr Shrikant Lata Eknath Shinde (@DrSEShinde) December 2, 2024

“… there is no truth in it… the news about my taking up post of Deputy Chief Minister is baseless”.

Maharashtra Assembly Election Recap

The BJP, Mr Shinde’s Sena and Mr Pawar’s NCP, registered a landslide win when votes were counted November 23, even if the Congress and the opposing Maha Vikas Aghadi has cried foul since.

As the single largest party in the Assembly, the BJP is widely seen as having the edge in the chief ministerial race; it won 132 of 288 seats. The Sena is second with 57 and the NCP is third with 41.

The BJP, therefore, is not reliant on both allies to reach the majority mark of 145.

READ | Eknath Shinde Now Where Uddhav Was In ’19, With Big Difference

And the NCP has already professed support, meaning the Shinde Sena doesn’t have the leverage it had in 2022, when Mr Shinde broke from Uddhav Thackeray’s side and allied with the BJP.

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Mumbai:

Eknath Shinde, the outgoing Maharashtra Chief Minister, was taken to a Thane’s Jupiter Hospital Tuesday afternoon after doctors recommended a “full examination” of his health and medical status.

Mr Shinde – at the centre of a tug-of-war in the Maharashtra chief ministerial race – may be admitted, but sources played down talk of an emergency, explaining this is a “routine check-up”.

Mr Shinde himself spoke to reporters outside the hospital and said, “My health is fine.”

Amid deliberations between his outfit and the Bharatiya Janta Party – which is the single-largest in the Assembly and in pole position to name the next Chief Minister – Mr Shinde has been stationed in Thane since returning from a 48-hour visit last week to his hometown in Satara district.

Meanwhile – although the identity of the next Maharashtra Chief Minister remains an unknown and the three-party Mahayuti alliance that won the election hasn’t yet formally staked claim to government formation – preparations are underway for a grand oath-taking event on Thursday.

READ | E Shinde’s Push For Last-Minute Bargain Amid Maharashtra Race

Multiple sources told NDTV last week the BJP is expected to win the internal race; the party has 132 of the Maharashtra Assembly’s 288 seats while the Shinde Sena has 57 and Ajit Pawar’s NCP 41.

READ | Maharashtra Chief Minister To Be From BJP, Will Have 2 Deputies: Sources

Any leverage Mr Shinde may have had in 2022 – when he broke Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena ranks and allied with the BJP, directly ensuring the saffron party could form the government – is now absent.

READ | Eknath Shinde Now Where Uddhav Was In ’19, With Big Difference

And Ajit Pawar has backed the BJP’s chief ministerial bid, meaning a tweak of the existing formula is most likely. That is, the BJP will name a Chief Minister and the Sena and NCP one deputy each.

The BJP is scheduled to hold a meeting of its MLAs later today, at which Devendra Fadnavis, the former two-time Chief Minister and the man credited with the party’s big win, will likely be named to the top post. But the delay in confirming that speculation means rumour mills continue to spin.

READ | Eknath Shinde’s Son Junks Deputy Buzz In Maharashtra Race

Mr Shinde has said publicly, twice, that he will not be an “obstacle” and that he has left the decision on who will be Chief Minister to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But repeated absences from Mumbai in the run-up to the big day, and the two-day retreat to Satara, have raised eyebrows.

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Mumbai:

The Bharatiya Janata Party has named Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and ex-Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani as the designated ‘observers’ for a meeting of its newly elected Maharashtra MLAs later today, at which the issue of the next Chief Minister may be settled.

No formal announcement has been made so far, but Devendra Fadnavis, a senior BJP leader and two-time former Chief Minister, is widely seen as the frontrunner for the post.

The BJP – which recorded a big win in last month’s Assembly election, with help from allies Shiv Sena and NCP (the Eknath Shinde- and Ajit Pawar-led factions) – has delayed naming the new Chief Minister amid backroom talks between the three allies over a power-sharing agreement.

A rudimentary deal was announced last week; the Chief Minister will be from the BJP and the two allies will each get a deputy, a repeat of the current formula but tilted in favour of the former.

The BJP emerged as the single-largest party in the 288-seat House with 132 MLAs, while the Shinde Sena got 57 and the Pawar NCP group 41. That meant the BJP can form the government – with the majority mark at 145 – without help from the Sena faction, unlike the 2022 mid-term switch.

The fact that the BJP does not, at this point, need the Shinde Sena’s help (assuming Ajit Pawar’s NCP remains an ally) has emboldened the saffron party to claim the Chief Minister’s position, a claim that has not gone down all too well with outgoing Chief Minister Shinde and his party.

But last week Mr Shinde, after days of posturing – which included retreating to his hometown in Satara district, a move attributed to a need for rest after a draining election campaign but one seen as conveying displeasure at being sidelined – seemed to accept the new status quo.

READ | “Won’t Obstruct”: In Maharashtra CM Race, E Shinde Leaves It To BJP

He told reporters he had spoken to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “I told PM Modi I would not be an obstacle… we (the Mahayuti alliance that won the election) will go with what he decides.”

Days later, while he was in Satara, the BJP said the new Chief Minister would be sworn-in at 5 pm on December 5. The ceremony will take place at Mumbai’s Azad Maidan in the presence of PM Modi.

The NCP has already indicated it will back the BJP, meaning party boss Ajit Pawar will likely return as Deputy Chief Minister. Who the second deputy will be remains to be seen.

It could be Eknath Shinde but the jump from the top post to the deputy’s might be seen as a bit too big to stomach, and explain to party workers, even if it mirrors the step taken by Mr Fadnavis in 2022.

A possible option, though, is Eknath Shinde’s son, Shrikant Shinde.

Shinde’s Son To Be Deputy?

However, Shinde junior has refused such speculation, suggesting the Shinde Sena, despite outwardly accepting its junior status in this new-look Mahayuti, is actually still playing tough.

Eknath Shinde’s son said on X that “there are a lot of discussion and rumours” about his becoming Deputy Chief Minister and said firmly, “As a matter of fact, there is no truth in it… all the news about my taking up the post of Deputy Chief Minister is baseless”.

महायुतीच्या सरकारचा शपथविधी थोडा लांबल्यामुळे सध्या चर्चा आणि अफवा यांचे पीक फोफावले आहे. काळजीवाहू मुख्यमंत्री मा. श्री एकनाथ शिंदे यांनी प्रकृती अस्वास्थ्यामुळे दोन दिवस गावी जाऊन विश्रांती घेतली. त्यामुळे अफवांना अधिकच बहर आला. मी उपमुख्यमंत्री होणार अशा बातम्या प्रश्नचिन्हे…

— Dr Shrikant Lata Eknath Shinde (@DrSEShinde) December 2, 2024

He said he had been given the opportunity to become a Union Minister after the Lok Sabha elections but turned that down. “I refused the post then (and) have no desire for a position in power. I make it clear, once again, I am not in the race for any ministerial position in the state.”

Aaditya Thackeray’s Jab

The delay in announcing the Chief Minister has drawn predictable criticism from the opposition.

Thackeray Sena leader Aaditya Thackeray, slammed the Mahayuti’s inability to close the deal even a week after the result and called it was an “insult” to Maharashtra. He has called the move to announce a swearing-in date without even staking claim to form the government as “pure anarchy”

READ | E Shinde’s CM Update, Aaditya Thackeray’s “Pure Anarchy” Post

He also doubled down on his allegations, by his party and the Congress, that the ruling alliance had indulged in voter fraud and tampered with EVMs, or electronic voting machines and called the election result the “mandate of the Election Commission” rather than that of the people.

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