New Delhi:
Maharashtra saw a saffron wave as the BJP-led Mahayuti decimated the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi in state elections while INDIA bloc held its fortress in Jharkhand. Bypoll results were also declared for 48 assembly seats and two Lok Sabha seats.

Here are the top 10 points in this big story:

New Delhi:

Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, and the Nationalist Congress Party offshoot led by Ajit Pawar, have apparently flipped a chunk of seats – over 70 – from their parent parties to the Bharatiya Janata Party-led ruling Mahayuti alliance in the Maharashtra Assembly election.

The flip underlines the impact of the Sena and NCP split – the former in 2022 and the latter a year later – on the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi’s fortunes. Sans those 70-odd seats, it cannot hope to counter a BJP that has dominated today, and is set for its best ever score in a Maharashtra election.

At 12.30 pm the BJP was leading in 124 of the Maharashtra Assembly’s 288 seats.

The MVA – decimated after claiming victory in the April-June federal election, in which it won 30 of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats – had only 53 to its name. The gap is 70-odd seats – almost exactly the number of seats the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP have won from their parent parties.

READ | NDA Set For Maharashtra Sweep, Powered By BJP’s Best-Ever Score

Its solo show aside, the BJP will still, most likely, need the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s seats to cross the majority mark of 145. And it is those two that will put its larger ally out of reach of the MVA.

Overall, the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar are on course to win 93 seats.

Where Did The 93 Come From?

Only a small chunk – around 14 – comes from seats are those contested by other parties, mostly the BJP or Congress, in 2019 and given to the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar this time.

The rest have been flipped from their parent parties, and this, potentially, is one of the areas where the Maha Vikas Aghadi lost this election.

The Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP contested 81 and 59 seats in this election, and they are leading in 57 and 37 seats, respectively.

On the other side, Thackeray’s Sena contested 95 seats but is leading only in 18, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP contested 86 seats but is leading only in 13.

Of the Shinde Sena’s 57 leads, at least 40 are seats won by the undivided Sena in the 2019 election. Similarly, of Ajit Pawar’s NCP’s 37 leads, a staggering 32 were won by Sharad Pawar’s NCP.

Had the Sena and NCP not split, it would have handed the MVA those 70-odd seats.

These would not, perhaps, have been enough for the Maha Vikas Aghadi to win this election, but it would certainly have been enough to push the BJP to a much closer finish.

What Exit Polls Said

The MVA had only been given a (very) slim chance of upsetting the in-power BJP-led alliance’s applecart in the final election of the year; only one of 11 exit polls studied by NDTV believed it can win. Three others were on the fence but even they tilted to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party.

An average of those 11 exit polls gives the Mahayuti 155 seats and the MVA only 120, with smaller parties and independent candidates expected to get the remaining 13.

But a health warning: exit polls often get it wrong.

A majority of those exit polls predicted a big win for the Mahayuti.

READ | Mahayuti vs MVA On “Fraud” Exit Polls As Maharashtra Awaits Result

Across the aisle, only one – Electoral Edge – expected the Congress’ alliance to win and, even then, by five seats only, with 20 seats from smaller parties and independents in play for the BJP.

What Happened In 2019?

The 2019 election resulted in a thumping win for the BJP and the undivided Sena; the saffron party won 105 seats (down 17 from 2014) and its ally 56 (down seven).

However, two long-time allies fell out, quite spectacularly, in the following days after they failed to agree a power-sharing deal. Mr Thackeray then led his Sena into a surprise alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (then also undivided) to shut out a furious BJP.

Much to the surprise of many, the ruling tripartite alliance lasted for nearly three years despite the divergent political beliefs and ideologies of the Sena and the Congress-NCP.

Eventually, it was an internal rebellion led by Sena leader Eknath Shinde that ousted the MVA government. Mr Shinde led Sena lawmakers into a deal with the BJP, forcing Mr Thackeray to resign and allowing himself to be named as the new Chief Minister.

The NCP split a year later in a near-identical process that saw Ajit Pawar and lawmakers loyal to him joining the BJP-Shinde Sena, and he then became a Deputy Chief Minister.

Since then, Maharashtra politics has been roiled in controversy that extended to the Supreme Court, which heard petitions and cross-petitions on disqualification of MLAs and, in the build-up to this election, pleas on which Sena and NCP faction is the ‘real’ one.

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New Delhi:

The ruling Mahayuti has crossed the majority mark – 145 – in early leads as counting began Saturday for the Maharashtra Assembly election. The alliance – fronted by the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party factions led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar – was ahead in 147 seats by 9.20 am. The Maha Vikas Aghadi  – the Congress and the Sena and NCP groups led by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar – is ahead in 84. Non-aligned parties are ahead in nine.

Within the Mahayuti, it is the BJP that is ahead; the saffron party is leading in 66 of the 149 seats it is contesting. The Shinde Sena is ahead in 29 of the 81 it is contesting and Ajit Pawar’s NCP 16 of 59.

Across the aisle in the MVA, the Congress is leading in 33 of the 101 seats it has entered, while Sharad Pawar’s NCP is ahead in 25 of 86 and the Thackeray Sena in 19 of 95.

Big Names

Outgoing Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and his deputy, Ajit Pawar, and Aaditya Thackeray, the son of ex-Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, are among the many big names contesting this election. Also in the spotlight is Zeeshan Siddiqui of the Ajit Pawar NCP faction; Mr Siddiqui is the son of ex-Maharashtra minister Baba Siddiqui, who was shot dead by the Lawrence Bishnoi gang last month.

Eknath Shinde faces Thackeray Sena leader Kedar Dighe – the nephew of his mentor, Anand Dighe – for Thane’s Kopri-Pachpakhadi seat. Mr Shinde leads by over 4,000 votes.

Ajit Pawar faces a Pawar vs Pawar battle against uncle Sharad Pawar’s grandnephew, Yugendra Pawar, in the family stronghold of Baramati.

Aaditya Thackeray is up against former Congress veteran Milind Deora, who jumped to the Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena this year. The two are contesting the Worli Assembly seat.

Zeeshan Siddiqui faces Varun Sardesai, Uddhav Thackeray’s nephew, in Bandra (East).

Voting for this election took place in a single phase on Wednesday.

The Maharashtra Assembly has 288 seats and the majority mark is 145.

What Exit Polls Said

The MVA had only been given a (very) slim chance of upsetting the in-power BJP-led alliance’s applecart in the final election of the year; only one of 11 exit polls studied by NDTV believed it can win. Three others were on the fence but even they tilted to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party.

An average of those 11 exit polls gives the Mahayuti 155 seats and the MVA only 120, with smaller parties and independent candidates expected to get the remaining 13.

But a health warning: exit polls often get it wrong.

Exit Poll Numbers

A majority of the exit polls predicted a big win for the Mahayuti.

In fact, of those studied by Axis-My India, Peoples Pulse, Poll Diary, and Today’s Chanakya have each given the BJP-led alliance a minimum of 175 seats. Chanakya Strategies, Matrize, and Times Now-JVC also expect victory for the BJP’s coalition, with at least 150 seats.

Across the aisle, only Electoral Edge expects the Congress’ alliance to win and, even then, by five seats only, with 20 seats from smaller parties and independents in play for the BJP.

READ | NDA Has Edge But 3 Exit Polls Predict Hung Assembly

The Dainik Bhaskar, Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra, and P-Marq exit polls are on the fence, although the latter favours the Mahayuti with an upper prediction of 157 and the former the MVA with 150.

However, Thackeray Sena MP Sanjay Raut has rubbished the predictions, pointing to incorrect previews of the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir elections and insisting the MVA will win.

READ | Mahayuti vs MVA On “Fraud” Exit Polls As Maharashtra Awaits Result

“They said Congress would win Haryana but what happened? They said Modiji would get 400 seats in the Lok Sabha… but what happened there? You will see… we will win 160-165 seats,” he declared.

Voter Turnout

Polling on Wednesday saw a voter turnout of 65.1 per cent – the highest since the 63.4 per cent recorded for the 2004 and 2014 elections and the second highest since 71.5 per cent in 1995.

The increased voter turnout has been flagged by both alliances as ‘proof positive’ that their side will emerge triumphant when votes are counted, although conventional wisdom suggests high voter turnout is bad news for the incumbent party or candidate.

READ | 65.1% Voter Turnout Is 2nd Highest 1990s, Highest In A Decade

Senior BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis declared, “Increase in voting percentage means it is in favour of the current government… it means people are supporting the current government.”

Race For Chief Minister’s Post

Meanwhile, away from the ballot boxes there is jostling and shoving offstage as senior figures within each alliance bid to replace Mr Shinde as Chief Minister. And that race looks to have exposed cracks in each alliance, with each party talking up its candidates for the top post.

Claims by the Congress’ state unit chief, Nana Patole, that his party would emerge as the single-largest and therefore be in pole position to pick the Chief Minister have been contested by Mr Raut, who said the final decision will be taken after victory is confirmed and by all stakeholders.

READ | Who Will Be Chief Minister? NDA, MVA Ministers Stake Claim

In the Mahayuti, the Shinde Sena and the BJP appear to be at odds on the same issue, with the former batting for Mr Shinde to continue and the latter pitching Mr Fadnavis, who was the Chief Minister when the BJP and (then) undivided Sena were in power between 2014 and 2019.

And the NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar has thrown its hat in the ring too, on the back of hopes it will emerge as the ‘kingmaker’, although the question of which side it will help crown was waved away.

What Happened In 2019?

The 2019 election resulted in a thumping win for the BJP and the undivided Sena; the saffron party won 105 seats (down 17 from 2014) and its ally 56 (down seven).

However, two long-time allies fell out, quite spectacularly, in the following days after they failed to agree a power-sharing deal. Mr Thackeray then led his Sena into a surprise alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (then also undivided) to shut out a furious BJP.

Much to the surprise of many, the ruling tripartite alliance lasted for nearly three years despite the divergent political beliefs and ideologies of the Sena and the Congress-NCP.

Eventually, it was an internal rebellion led by Sena leader Eknath Shinde that ousted the MVA government. Mr Shinde led Sena lawmakers into a deal with the BJP, forcing Mr Thackeray to resign and allowing himself to be named as the new Chief Minister.

The NCP split a year later in a near-identical process that saw Ajit Pawar and lawmakers loyal to him joining the BJP-Shinde Sena, and he then became a Deputy Chief Minister.

Since then, Maharashtra politics has been roiled in controversy that extended to the Supreme Court, which heard petitions and cross-petitions on disqualification of MLAs and, in the build-up to this election, pleas on which Sena and NCP faction is the ‘real’ one.

With input from agencies

NDTV is now available on WhatsApp channels. Click on the link to get all the latest updates from NDTV on your chat.

New Delhi:

Counting of votes for the Maharashtra Assembly election – a straight fight between the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi – begins at 8 am, with a majority of the 11 exit polls studied by NDTV leaning heavily towards the Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance.

The MVA – fronted by the Congress and the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party factions led by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar – has been given a (very) slim chance of upsetting the BJP’s applecart in the final major election of the year; only one exit poll believes it can win.

Three others are on the fence, although one has tilted towards the MVA and the other the Mahayuti, which includes the Sena and NCP groups led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar.

Voting for the Maharashtra Assembly’s 288 seats was held Wednesday in single phase. The majority mark is 145, and an average of the 11 exit polls gives the Mahayuti 155 seats.

The MVA is expected to get 120 seats and smaller parties and independent candidates 13.

But a health warning: exit polls often get it wrong.

Exit Poll Numbers

The nine exit polls that predict victory for the Mahayuti all expect it to be a dominant performance.

In fact, of those nine Axis-My India, Peoples Pulse, Poll Diary, and Today’s Chanakya have each given the BJP-led alliance a minimum of 175 seats. Chanakya Strategies, Matrize, and Times Now-JVC also expect victory for the BJP’s coalition, with at least 150 seats.

Across the aisle, only Electoral Edge expects the Congress’ alliance to win and, even then, by five seats only, with 20 seats from smaller parties and independents in play for the BJP.

READ | NDA Has Edge But 3 Of 11 Exit Polls Predict Hung Assembly

The Dainik Bhaskar, Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra, and P-Marq exit polls are on the fence, although the latter favours the Mahayuti with an upper prediction of 157 and the former the MVA with 150.

However, Thackeray Sena MP Sanjay Raut has rubbished the predictions, pointing to incorrect previews of the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir elections and insisting the MVA will win.

READ | Mahayuti vs MVA On “Fraud” Exit Polls As Maharashtra Awaits Result

“They said Congress would win Haryana but what happened? They said Modiji would get 400 seats in the Lok Sabha… but what happened there? You will see… we will win 160-165 seats,” he declared.

Voter Turnout

Polling on Wednesday saw a voter turnout of 65.1 per cent – the highest since the 63.4 per cent recorded for the 2004 and 2014 elections and the second highest since 71.5 per cent in 1995.

The increased voter turnout has been flagged by both alliances as ‘proof positive’ that their side will emerge triumphant when votes are counted, although conventional wisdom suggests high voter turnout is bad news for the incumbent party or candidate.

READ | 65.1% Voter Turnout Is 2nd Highest 1990s, Highest In A Decade

Senior BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis declared, “Increase in voting percentage means it is in favour of the current government… it means people are supporting the current government.”

Race For Chief Minister’s Post

Meanwhile, away from the ballot boxes there is jostling and shoving offstage as senior figures within each alliance bid to replace Mr Shinde as Chief Minister. And that race looks to have exposed cracks in each alliance, with each party talking up its candidates for the top post.

Claims by the Congress’ state unit chief, Nana Patole, that his party would emerge as the single-largest and therefore be in pole position to pick the Chief Minister have been contested by Mr Raut, who said the final decision will be taken after victory is confirmed and by all stakeholders.

READ | Who Will Be Chief Minister? NDA, MVA Ministers Stake Claim

In the Mahayuti, the Shinde Sena and the BJP appear to be at odds on the same issue, with the former batting for Mr Shinde to continue and the latter pitching Mr Fadnavis, who was the Chief Minister when the BJP and (then) undivided Sena were in power between 2014 and 2019.

And the NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar has thrown its hat in the ring too, on the back of hopes it will emerge as the ‘kingmaker’, although the question of which side it will help crown was waved away.

What Happened In 2019?

The 2019 election resulted in a thumping win for the BJP and the undivided Sena; the saffron party won 105 seats (down 17 from 2014) and its ally 56 (down seven).

However, two long-time allies fell out, quite spectacularly, in the following days after they failed to agree a power-sharing deal. Mr Thackeray then led his Sena into a surprise alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (then also undivided) to shut out a furious BJP.

Much to the surprise of many, the ruling tripartite alliance lasted for nearly three years despite the divergent political beliefs and ideologies of the Sena and the Congress-NCP.

Eventually, it was an internal rebellion led by Sena leader Eknath Shinde that ousted the MVA government. Mr Shinde led Sena lawmakers into a deal with the BJP, forcing Mr Thackeray to resign and allowing himself to be named as the new Chief Minister.

The NCP split a year later in a near-identical process that saw Ajit Pawar and lawmakers loyal to him joining the BJP-Shinde Sena, and he then became a Deputy Chief Minister.

Since then, Maharashtra politics has been roiled in controversy that extended to the Supreme Court, which heard petitions and cross-petitions on disqualification of MLAs and, in the build-up to this election, pleas on which Sena and NCP faction is the ‘real’ one.

With input from agencies

NDTV is now available on WhatsApp channels. Click on the link to get all the latest updates from NDTV on your chat.

Mumbai:

Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar admitted that it was a mistake to field his wife Sunetra Pawar against his cousin Supriya Sule in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Ms Sule, daughter of NCP patriarch Sharad Pawar, had defeated Sunetra Pawar, representing the Ajit Pawar NCP faction, in the Baramati Lok Sabha seat by a margin of over 1.5 lakh votes.

“It was my mistake to field her against Supriya Sule, I have told you again and again. It is over now. On November 20 there is an election in Maharashtra and the voters will decide in whose hands Maharashtra should be given for five years. We are paying more attention to that,” Mr Pawar told NDTV. 

Mr Pawar said that his primary focus remains on campaigning in the constituencies allotted to the NCP under the Mahayuti (Grand Alliance). The 65-year-old said that despite occasional calls from alliance partners like the BJP and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction to join their campaigns, he is prioritising NCP seats. “Right now, with only a few days left, I am concentrating on our constituencies and holding public rallies,” he said.

Nepotism In Politics

Mr Pawar said that political families have played a role in all major parties, from Congress to the BJP, Shiv Sena, and even the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). He argued that ultimately, it is the voters who decide whether a candidate from a political family deserves their support. 

READ | On Abuse Of Power Charge, Eknath Shinde’s “Have We Arrested Anyone” Counter

“The BJP speaks against nepotism, but in this election, both the Mahavikas Aghadi and the Mahayuti alliances have numerous candidates from political families. This trend has been part of Indian politics for decades. After we gained independence in 1947, the families who initially entered politics continued to hold influence. The Congress party dominated government for many years, bringing successive generations into its ranks,” Mr Pawar said. 

“Now, across all parties – whether Shiv Sena, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), BJP, or even the MNS – family members of political leaders are running for office.  However, it’s ultimately the voters who decide. Regardless of family ties, voters support candidates they believe will work for the people,” he added. 

Electoral Confidence

Mr Pawar also expressed strong confidence in his own candidacy, claiming that he would “100 per cent” secure his seat in the upcoming assembly elections. Referring to the recent Lok Sabha elections, where a “sympathy factor” for Sharad Pawar influenced outcomes in Baramati, he stated, “This time, I am fully confident of winning my seat. I am certain of a 100 per cent victory.”

The Maharashtra assembly elections will decide the fate of 288 seats, with the Mahayuti coalition, comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena, and NCP, facing off against the Mahavikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, which includes the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP factions. The 2019 assembly polls saw the BJP emerge as the largest party with 105 seats, while the Shiv Sena won 56 and the Congress 44.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, the MVA gained ground, winning 30 out of 48 seats, while the Mahayuti coalition managed to secure 17.