Maldives’ main opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu casts his vote in Male, Maldives, on September 30, 2023.
| Photo Credit: AP

Frontrunner and Opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu appeared poised for victory in the Maldivian presidential race, provisional results of Saturday’s run-off showed, as he beat the India-friendly incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih in a closely fought contest in the Indian Ocean archipelago.

Also read: The Hindu Profiles: Who is Mohamed Muizzu? 

The second round of the presidential election saw a higher voter turnout of 86%, compared to the 79.85% recorded in the first, the lowest seen in a Maldivian presidential election.  Around 9 p.m. IST, the Election Commission of Maldives showed Mr. Muizzu having garnered about 56% of the vote, while Mr. Solih had secured nearly 46%.  

The vote for change in the Maldives comes after a strong anti-incumbency sentiment against the Solih administration, and a concerted Opposition campaign, led by his rival, former President and jailed leader Abdulla Yameen, demanding ‘India out’ of the country.

President Solih came under sharp attack from the Opposition for his close India ties. While the Opposition People’s National Congress-Progressive Party of Maldives coalition’s pro-China stance is no secret, observers within the Maldives have said Mr. Muizzu is unlikely to abruptly sever ties with India.  The newly-elected leader would seek to balance India-China ties, they note, even as New Delhi hopes for continuity in India’s many infrastructure projects across the island nation.

Both candidates had made big promises on housing, a preoccupation for the Maldivian voter, as the island nation battles congestion and development skewed towards capital Male, while several other atolls await basic amenities. The winner of Saturday’s election, which followed an inconclusive first round on September 9, 2023, will have his task cut out, as the country faces mounting debt, dwindling foreign reserves and heightening climate risks.

The Maldives is also preparing for a referendum next month, for citizens to decide if the country must switch to a parliamentary system of governance, a long-time demand of former President and parliamentary Speaker Mohamed Nasheed. After his fallout with his party colleague and friend Mr. Solih —it is seen as a major reason for Mr. Solih’s electoral defeat —Mr. Nasheed backed a young aspirant who came third in the first round, and exited the race.

Mohamed Muizzu, Maldives presidential candidate of the opposition party, People’s National Congress, casts his vote at a polling station during the Maldives presidential election day in Male, Maldives, on September 09, 2023.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The Maldives stands at a geopolitical crossroads ahead of its presidential runoff vote with the frontrunner, a former construction minister, set on demolishing India’s influence and building stronger ties with China.

The archipelago nation, better known for its upmarket beach resorts and celebrity vacationers, sits in a strategically vital position in the middle of the Indian Ocean astride one of the world’s busiest east-west shipping lanes.

The vote on the chain of atolls — scattered some 800km across the equator — takes place with growing Western concern at China’s growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, with rival India part of the Quad, a strategic alliance alongside the United States, Australia and Japan.

Frontrunner Mohamed Muizzu is the protege of former leader Abdulla Yameen, who steered the archipelago towards Beijing’s orbit while in office and became an eager recipient of financial largesse from China’s Belt and Road infrastructure programme.

Muizzu won just over 46 percent of Saturday’s first-round vote with incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who presided over a restoration of ties with traditional benefactor India, trailing on 39 percent.

Foreign policy is set to dominate the campaign before the September 30 runoff, with both men sharply divided on managing the India-China rivalry.

Muizzu told an online meeting with Chinese Communist Party representatives last year that a return to power of his Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) would “script a further chapter of strong ties between our two countries”.

Now the mayor of the capital Male, Muizzu also spearheaded the $200-million China-Maldives friendship bridge linking his island city to the country’s main airport while serving in the previous government.

Last month, he marked the fifth anniversary of the bridge by praising the “visionary leadership” of both his patron Yameen and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

But any turn back to Beijing would come at the expense of ties with New Delhi.

“Should Muizzu win, he is likely to reset relations with India,” retired senior civil servant Imad Masood told AFP. “He will not go overboard like Solih did with India.”

Solih beat Muizzu’s mentor Yameen in a landslide election win five years ago and moved swiftly to repair relations with New Delhi.

Yameen had borrowed heavily from Beijing for construction projects during his autocratic rule, a decision condemned by opponents as debt trap diplomacy.

After a legal challenge to his loss failed, Yameen was convicted of corruption and jailed for 11 years, barring him from contesting this year’s vote.

He has instead backed Muizzu to steer a coalition led by the PPM back to office in a Muslim nation home to more than half-a-million people, nearly a third of whom are foreign workers in its tourism industry.

Their party and other activists regularly staged street protests demanding a reduction in Indian influence during Solih’s tenure.

Last year, an Islamist group stormed a football stadium in Male to break up a public yoga session, with police firing tear gas to disperse the protesters.

The campaign has clearly resonated, with Masood saying Muizzu’s “India Out” posture helped him take a comfortable lead by swaying undecided voters.

But ex-Maldives foreign minister Ahmed Shaheed said Muizzu cannot afford to antagonise India and expect a trouble-free tenure.

“He needs to learn from Yameen’s mistakes and pipe down the ‘India Out’ campaign,” Shaheed, also a law professor at the University of Essex in Britain, told AFP.

During his election campaign, Muizzu promised to free Yameen from imprisonment on the remote island where the former president had also once jailed many of his own political opponents.

Loyalists expect the jailed ex-leader to play a key role in government should his proxy win the poll.

Both Muizzu and Solih are scouting for allies among the six other candidates knocked out of the race after Saturday’s first-round vote.

Solih is seeking a reconciliation with the Democrats, a breakaway faction of his party whose candidate polled just over seven percent — a bloc which could tip the runoff.

Eighty percent of the Maldives is less than a metre (three feet) above sea level, making it one of the countries most threatened by rising sea levels linked to climate warming.

The Maldives Presidential election Saturday was headed toward a second round between the top two candidates after none of the eight contestants secured more than 50 per cent of the vote for an outright win, local media reported.

Main opposition candidate Mohamed Muiz secured a surprise lead with more than 46% of votes, while the incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih secured 39% in an election that turned into a virtual referendum over which regional power — India or China — will have the biggest influence in the Indian Ocean archipelago state.

The elections commission was scheduled to announce its official results Sunday morning. A second round, if confirmed, will take place later this month.

Saturday’s vote was to choose the country’s fifth freely elected President since Maldives became a multiparty democracy in 2008. Eight candidates are vying for the post with Mr. Solih, perceived as pro-India, facing off against his main rival Mr. Muiz, who is seen as pro-China.

Mr. Solih is seeking a second term and is battling allegations by Mr. Muiz that he had allowed India an unchecked presence in the country.

Mr. Muiz promised that if he wins the presidency, he will remove Indian troops stationed in the Maldives and balance the country’s trade relations, which he said is heavily in India’s favor.

The People’s National Congress, Mr. Muiz’s party, is viewed as heavily pro-China. Its leader, Abdullah Yameen, was president from 2013-2018, during which he made the Maldives a part of China’s Belt and Road initiative. The initiative envisages building ports, railways and roads to expand trade — and China’s influence — across Asia, Africa and Europe.

Mohamed Shareef, a senior official for Mr. Muiz’s party, told The Associated Press that the removal of Indian military personnel was a “non-negotiable” position for the party. He said the number of Indian troops and their activities are hidden from Maldivians and that they have near-exclusive use of certain ports and airports in the country.

Both India and China are vying for influence in the tiny state made up of some 1,200 coral islands in the Indian Ocean, located by the main shipping route between East and the West.

Mr. Solih was considered the front-runner in the field of eight candidates since his strongest rival, Yameen, was blocked from running by the Supreme Court because he is in prison for corruption and money laundering convictions.

Mr. Muiz seems to have taken advantage of a split in Mr. Solih’s Maldivian Democratic Party that led Mohamed Nasheed, a charismatic former president, to break away and field his own candidate. Nasheed’s candidate, Ilyas Labeeb, has secured 7% of the vote.

Sahida Saeed, a university student who was voting in the Maldives Embassy in neighbouring Sri Lanka, said she wanted a leader who can take care of current issues. “Due to the population increase, the employment rates are at risk (of decreasing),” she said.

“Indian influences are a threat to us since military bases are coming to Maldives. And I don’t believe that any other country’s military forces should come to our country and try to take over,” said Isaq Nuhan, a school teacher also voting in Colombo.

Nasheed is backing Labeeb who, though not highly critical of India, has accused Solih of not being transparent in his dealings with New Delhi, said Azim Zahir, a political science and international relations lecturer at the University of Western Australia.

The “India Out” campaign — spearheaded by Muiz’s party — has been ubiquitous on social media in the runup to the election and almost all candidates except Mr. Solih adopted the “India vs. the rest” rhetoric, said Zahir.

Mr. Solih was widely credited with having brought stability to the country and adeptly handling the COVID pandemic, which was expected to help him gain support.

Mr. Solih also had no corruption allegations against him, unlike Muiz, who had served as a housing minister.

There is also a possibility that the mostly Sunni Muslim nation could become more socially conservative because both sides are backed by religious hard-liners. The groups are not known to espouse violence but they want more control over women and are against music and art and religious freedom, Zahir said.

Maldives is believed to have sent the highest number of fighters per capita when the Islamic State group was at its height. A local group with the IS ideology set off a bomb targeting Nasheed in 2021, seriously wounding him.

More than 282,000 people were eligible to vote in the election.