President of Maldivian Democratic Party Abdulla Shahid. File
| Photo Credit: AP

The Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has welcomed President Mohammad Muizzu-led government’s “sudden recalibration” of its India policy and said Male has always been confident that India will always be the first responder any time the Maldives “dials an international 911″.

Abdulla Shahid, president of the main Opposition party, the MDP, made the remarks after he met External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar in Male on Saturday (August 10, 2024).

The MDP president said that his party “calls on the Muizzu government to issue a public apology for the actions, lies and irresponsible comments from its officials which have resulted in significant damage to the Maldives’ foreign and economic outlook”. Mr. Jaishankar is on a three-day official visit to the Maldives to reset the bilateral relationship, the first high-level trip from India after the archipelago nation’s pro-China President Muizzu assumed office last year.

“Great pleasure to warmly welcome and meet Indian External Affairs Minister @DrSJaishankar to the Maldives with my colleagues from @MDPSecretariat,” Mr. Shahid, the former foreign minister, said in a statement posted on X late Saturday (August 10, 2024) night.

“The Maldives has always been confident that India will always be the first responder any time the Maldives ‘dials an international 911’,” he said.

He said the “current government’s initial stoking of anti-India sentiments through aggressive slogans, mockery and the branding of a time-tested friend and development partner as a regional bully, has caused a decline in the Maldives’ international standing, economic loss, and many other unnecessary difficulties, and challenges.” “With this in mind, the MDP welcomes the sudden recalibration of the Maldives-India policy of President Muizzu’s government, from its previous India Out policy,” Mr. Shahid said.

India’s relationship with the Maldives has come under severe strain since Mr. Muizzu took charge as the President late last year.

Within hours of his oath, he had demanded the withdrawal of Indian military personnel manning three aviation platforms gifted by India to the Maldives. After talks between the two countries, the Indian military personnel were replaced by civilians.

On Saturday (August 10, 2024), Mr. Muizzu described India as “one of the closest allies” and reaffirmed his administration’s full commitment to strengthening the historic and close connections between the two countries.

“The MDP hopes that this shift will not be temporary or superficial, but consistent and meaningful in the best interests of the people of the Maldives,” Mr. Shahid said.

In a separate statement, the MDP welcomed Mr. Jaishankar’s visit to the Maldives.

“The Maldives-India relationship has always been based on the principles of mutual respect, respect for international law, territorial integrity, a common desire for regional security, and an open and peaceful Indian Ocean,” it said.

The MDP thanked India for its steadfast support of the people of the Maldives.

“The MDP welcomes the exchange of notes during this visit, to train a further 1000 civil service officers – a key human resource programme initiated during (former) President (Ibrahim Mohamed) Solih’s government.”

“The MDP also welcomes the signing of the MoU between the Ministry of Economic Development and the National Payments Corporation of India [NPCI], on enhancing and expanding digital and integrated payment systems – another MoU that was discussed and finalised during President Solih’s administration,” it said.

“The MDP welcomes with gratitude to India, the inauguration and handover of six High Impact Community Development Projects, implemented with grant assistance from the Government of India, and signed and implemented during President Solih’s administration,” the statement said.

It said the High Impact Community Development Project scheme is a highly successful and beneficial grant assistance scheme initialised in 2019.

“The Party further welcomes the handover of water and sewerage projects in 28 islands financed through the EXIM Bank of India,” the statement said.

It said these projects were undertaken through the ₹800 million Line of Credit extended by the Government of India, during the first state visit of former President Mr. Solih to India, in December 2018, and inaugurated during his administration.

The Maldives is one of India’s key maritime neighbours in the Indian Ocean Region and the overall bilateral ties, including in the areas of defence and security, witnessed an upward trajectory under the previous government led by Mr. Solih.

The IMF urged the Maldives to urgently raise revenue, cut spending and reduce external borrowing to avoid a major economic crisis. File
| Photo Credit: AP

The International Monetary Fund warned the Maldives against looming “debt distress” on Monday, as the small but strategically placed luxury tourist destination looks set to borrow more from main creditor China.

Since winning office last year, President Mohamed Muizzu has reoriented the atoll nation — known for its upmarket beach resorts and celebrity vacationers — away from traditional benefactor India and towards Beijing.

Last month his party won parliamentary elections in a landslide after promising to build thousands of apartments, reclaim more land for urban development and upgrade airports, all with Chinese funding.

Without naming the archipelago’s main lender, the IMF said the Maldives remained “at high risk of external and overall debt distress” without “significant policy changes”.

“Uncertainty surrounding the outlook is high and risks are tilted to the downside, including from delayed fiscal consolidation and weaker growth in key sources markets for tourism,” the IMF said in a statement.

It urged the Maldives to urgently raise revenue, cut spending and reduce external borrowing to avoid a major economic crisis.

The Maldives is a small nation of 1,192 tiny coral islets scattered 800 km across the equator, but it strategically straddles key east-west international shipping routes.

Tourism is a crucial source of foreign exchange for the country, home to white sandy beaches and secluded resorts offering Robinson Crusoe-style holidays.

China has pledged more funding since last year’s victory by Mr. Muizzu, who thanked the country for its “selfless assistance” for development funds on a state visit to Beijing shortly after he took power.

Official data showed the Maldives’ foreign debt reaching $4.038 billion last year, about 118% of gross domestic product and up nearly $250 million from 2022.

As of June 2023, the Export-Import Bank of China owned 25.2 percent of the Maldives’ external debt and was the country’s biggest single lender, Maldives finance ministry figures showed.

Debt-burdened neighbour Sri Lanka defaulted on its foreign debt in 2022 after a foreign exchange crisis that brought months of food and fuel shortages.

More than 50% of Sri Lanka’s bilateral debt is owed to China and the island nation is still struggling to restructure its borrowings with IMF assistance.

Unable to service a huge Chinese loan to build a port in the south, Sri Lanka allowed a Chinese state company to take over the facility on a 99-year lease in 2017.

The deal raised fears about Beijing’s use of “debt traps” in exerting its influence abroad, including in the Indian Ocean.

The FIR filed by the Delhi Police cites tax evasion cases being faced by companies such as Xiaomi and Vivo in India. File
| Photo Credit: Reuters

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Six months into the financial year, the flagship rural employment programme, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), has run out of funds and as per the statistics put out by the Ministry on its website is running a deficit of ₹6,146.93 crore. 

New Maldives President won’t be anti-India or pro-China: Mohamed Nasheed

The new Maldives President-elect’s transition team hopes to invite Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the swearing-in ceremony of Mohamed Muizzu in Male next month, says Maldives speaker and former President Mohamed Nasheed. In an interview to The Hindu, Mr. Nasheed — who has broken away from outgoing President Ibu Solih and his Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) to form his own party, which could join the incoming government — said that he would also send an invitation to Mr. Modi for the ceremony expected to be held on November 17.  

Change in Iran ‘irreversible’, says 2023 Nobel Peace laureate Narges Mohammadi

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₹2,000 notes worth ₹3.43 lakh crore have come back: RBI Governor

Governor Shaktikanta Das on October 6 said ₹3.43 lakh crore of ₹2,000 denomination notes have come back to the system so far, and reminded the public that they can return the withdrawn notes at 19 RBI offices from October 8.

Stock markets rally after RBI keeps repo rate unchanged

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Hangzhou Asian Games | Aman fights his way to bronze as Bajrang finishes without a medal

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Hangzhou Asian Games | Satwik-Chirag enter final, keep first-ever gold medal hopes alive

‘Ice and fire’ was how Sattwiksairaj Rankireddy described his doubles partnership with friend Chirag Shetty as he embraced him. Satwik is the Iceman to Chirag’s Maverick. 

Maldives’ new President-Elect says he wants to end the presence of Indian troops in the islands- is the election upset for New Delhi, and what is expected in the next few months in ties with the Indian Ocean neighbour?  

. Up ahead we will tell you about the history of ties, and India’s role in the Indian Ocean Region. 

We will also speak to one of the Maldives most prominent Presidents Mohamed Nasheed, who is always outspoken. 

1.     But first, Results of last week’s Presidential run off, or second round of elections came in in favour of the challenger candidate Dr. Mohamed Muizzu, who represented the PNC-PPM coalition, and defeated President Ibu Solih of the MDP with a convincing 8% lead. 

2.     Of the total 2.4 lakh valid votes counted, Muizzu won nearly 1.3 or 54% of the vote, to Solih’s 1.1, atleast 8 percentage points behind him.

3.     Dr. Muizzu, formerly the Mayor of Capital city Male is an engineer by training, a PhD and was the housing minister in the former government headed by President Abdulla Yameen 

4.     Remember, the first round that was held in early September had seen a smaller vote difference, and a third candidate, Ilyas Labeeb of The Democrats party led by Nasheed, who had broken from the MDP, had won about 7% of the vote, and that could have meant a different outcome if the ruling party had remained united 

5.     The opposition PPM, led by Yameen who is now in jail had started an “India out” campaign- calling for the removal of Indian military projects and other initiatives in the Maldives archipelago. While Muizzu wasn’t as overtly anti-India, he made “Sovereignty” a major plank 

6.     Yameen’s government had been seen as pro-China, had in 2017 signed an FTA with China which had upset many  in India 

7.     In contrast, Solih’s government had been seen as pro-India, as President Solih openly projected an “India First Policy”, signed many agreements with India including a major UTP- Uthuru Thilafalhu Coastguard harbour project that was seen as a cover for more permanent Indian military presence in the Maldives 

8.     As a result, the election was seen as a tussle between India First vs India out  campaigns, and as an extension an India vs China election 

Speaking at a rally after his victory, President-elect Muizzu confirmed what many in Delhi had feared, that he would ask Indian military troops stationed in southern atolls Laamu and Addu to leave. 

A day later, he met with the Indian Ambassador to Male, who handed over a letter of congratulations from PM Modi. 

When asked about Muizzu’s declaration about the Indian personnel moving out, here’s what the MEA spokesperson said: 

The focus of our partnership with Maldives has always been on capacity building and working together to address our shared challenges and priorities, you know, including security challenges and priorities. As neighbours, we need to collaborate closely to address these challenges confronting our region, such as transnational crimes as well as HADR, Humanitarian Assistance Disaster Relief situations. We look forward to engaging with the new administration in Maldives on all these issues. 

A quick word on India’s history with the Maldives 

1. Since its independence from the British in 1965, India has held very close ties with the islands, situated about 800 kilometres from Kochi. 

2. In 1978, President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom took charge, and made many visits to India, strengthened ties. 

3. In 1988, India sent its troops and ships to help Gayoom overthrow a coup attempt by a Maldives businessman and Sri Lankan Tamil fighters 

4. In 2008, after a sustained campaign for human rights and democracy, Mohamed Nasheed was elected President, he had been imprisoned and tortured for years in the 1990s, and founded the Maldivian Democratic Party. During his tenure, India began closer security cooperation, gifting or loaning 2 helicopters, and dornier aircraft to the Maldives along with patrol boats, for maritime reconnaissance, surveillance and coast guard security ops 

5. In 2012, Nasheed stepped down, after an uprising in his security forces over his decision to act against a judge. Many forget the problems with the judge had begun over India- during the SAARC summit there in 2009, statues gifted by India were defaced by a group of political islamist activists, but a judge gave them bail, which put him on collision course with Nasheed 

6. . In 2013, Abdulla Yameen of the opposition PPM was elected to power- Yameen sent Nasheed to prison in 2015 after he was convicted on terror charges. The charges were later dropped, but Nasheed was disqualified from running in the next elections. India had objected to Yameen’s actions including an emergency he imposed, and called for democracy in the islands, which led to a major strain in ties. That’s when Yameen signed the FTA with China, invited Chinese companies in for a number of major investments including the Hullumale island housing projects and friendship bridge, and threatened to evict Indian pilots and personnel from the islands. 

7. In 2018, India was visibly relieved when Yameen lost, and Nasheed’s long term friend Ibu Solih won the election, at the time seen as a proxy for Nasheed. Solih proved even friendlier than Nasheed, and India was invited to start many infrastructure projects including the $500mn Greater Male connectivity project funded by grants and concessionary loans from India. In 2021 they signed the Uthuru Thilafalhu project for which construction began this year, for India to build and maintain a coastguard harbour base- this sparked the India Out campaign 

So will the pendulum now swing back against India? With me is former Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed 

Remember the Maldives is a key element in India’s IOR strategy that includes working on :

-Placing naval and airforce personnel 

-Human assistance and Disaster relief ops, 

-Countering surveillance and military operations by China 

-Keeping IOR sea lanes secure and open from threats like piracy 

-Working with Indo Pacific partners including US, Japan, Australia, France, UK, EU 

India has a presence in 

-Maldives- personnel in Addu and Laamu, coastguard harbour base project 

-Sri Lanka patrol boats 

-Ports where Indian Navy can dock in Reunion, Madagascar, Oman, UAE 

-Chabahar port in Iran 

-Reports of an Indian base in the Seychelles- Assumption island 

-Naval facility in Mauritius Agalega islands- even the NSA Is an Indian 

-String of Radar and maritime communication facilities in Syechelles, Mauritius and Madagascar, Comoros 

-A number of dialogues including the IORA, ION, India-SL-Maldives trilateral 

WV Take:

When it comes to the domestic policy of India’s closest neighbours, given both geography and history, it is a mistake to play favourites. While the electoral win of Dr. Muizzu may not have been the desired outcome for the Modi government, it is necessary to see that being too close to the Solih government may have had a role in the pushback against him. India must not deal with its neighbours while nervously looking over its shoulder for China, more confidence in traditional ties, and the avoidance of a zero-sum mindset is necessary to build its strategic future in the IOR. 

WV Reading Recommendations: 

1.     Descent into Paradise: A Journalist’s Memoir of the Untold Maldives by Daniel Bosley 

2.     Great Game East: India, China and the Struggle for Asia’s Most Volatile by Bertil Lintner 

3.     Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power by Robert D. Kaplan 

4.     The Maldives: Islamic Republic, Tropical Autocracy by John J. Robinson 

 5.     China in the Indian Ocean Region—India’s Security Challenges by Sidda Goud 

6.     Comprehensive Maritime Security in The Indian Ocean Region: Challenges and Opportunities by Sithara Fernando 

7.     Mapping the Indian Ocean Region by Darshana Baruah

Script and Presentation: Suhasini Haidar

Production: Gayatri Menon and Reenu Cyriac

President-elect of the Maldives Mohamed Muizzu (right) of the People’s National Congress party attends a gathering with supporters following the country’s presidential election, in Male on October 02, 2023.
| Photo Credit: AFP

The new Maldives President-elect’s transition team hopes to invite Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the swearing-in ceremony of Mohamed Muizzu in Male next month, says Maldives speaker and former President Mohamed Nasheed.

In an interview to The Hindu, Mr. Nasheed — who has broken away from outgoing President Ibu Solih and his Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) to form his own party, which could join the incoming government — said that he would also send an invitation to Mr. Modi for the ceremony expected to be held on November 17. He stressed his belief that the new Maldivian President would not be “anti-India” or “pro-China”, as he has generally been portrayed in recent commentary. 

Mr. Modi had attended Mr. Solih’s swearing-in ceremony in 2018, a rare gesture that he has not made for any other leader in the neighbourhood thus far. Dr. Muizzu — the former Mayor of Male who campaigned on a “sovereignty” plank in the election — had served in the Yameen government as Minister for Housing (2013-2018), and was responsible for many of the infrastructure projects that Chinese companies won at the time, leading to the impression that he will follow the policies that had earlier strained ties with India.

Combating anti-India perceptions

“The international media has characterised our election as between India and China, and also has characterised Dr. Muizzu as pro-China. I don’t think all this was exactly true,” Mr. Nasheed said, claiming that the “India Out” campaign started by the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), which is part of the ruling coalition, was not the “main election issue”. Anti-incumbency was the chief reason for the MDP’s loss in the Presidential run-off poll held last Saturday, Mr. Nasheed said.

“The campaign against Indian military presence here has subsided and that really wasn’t the main campaign point… My feeling is that he will continue with our foreign policy… He would know that the relations with India go back hundreds of years, and I can’t see much changing because of a change in government,” Mr. Nasheed said, when asked to comment on Dr. Muizzu’s statement at a public rally this week that the people had voted against “foreign troops”. He indicated that the President-elect may allow approximately 75 Indian military personnel stationed in the Maldives to stay and help maintain and operate the helicopters and Dornier aircraft gifted by India.

Harbour project deal

Every Maldivian government, dating back to the rule of former President Abdul Gayoom, had appreciated the role of Indian security forces in the Indian Ocean, Mr. Nasheed said. He added that a rollback of the now-contentious Uthuru Thilafalhu Coastguard Harbour project, based on a deal with India signed in 2021, was unlikely.

“I can’t see why we would want to do anything to change this agreement. There’s nothing wrong with it,” said Mr. Nasheed, adding that the reason for the controversy was the previous government’s refusal to make the Uthuru Thilafahlu Project agreement for the development of a harbour to dock, maintain and repair Maldivian National Defence Forces’ coast guard vessels.

“I’m most sensitive of our security and safety and we know that terrorist organisations can come from anywhere. A few hundred people can come and really disturb the Maldives, and there’s nothing better than having closer defence cooperation with India,” Mr. Nasheed added.

Switched loyalties

While Mr. Nasheed had cordial ties with India during his tenure as Maldives President from 2008 to 2012, the relationship went sour over the past decade over the impression that New Delhi had switched its loyalties to the Solih government.

After breaking from Mr. Solih and the MDP in June this year, Mr. Nasheed launched a new party, called The Democrats. In the Presidential poll, it put up its own candidate against Mr. Solih and won about 7% of the vote. This was nearly enough, say analysts, to have helped the incumbent President win narrowly if the MDP had stayed united. When asked if he had played spoiler, Mr. Nasheed rejected the charge. 

“I have been telling everyone since 2020 that Mr. Solih would not win a re-election bid,” said Mr. Nasheed, arguing that the current Presidential election format in a multiparty system made it difficult for any incumbent to win more than 50% of the vote. The Maldivian Speaker has now been pushing for a referendum to move to a more parliamentary system, and said that he would try to make the case for that with the new President once he is sworn in.

Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., leaves the House floor after being ousted as Speaker of the House at the Capitol in Washington on October 3, 2023.
| Photo Credit: AP

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Delhi Police arrest NewsClick founder, HR head in alleged terror case

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Armenia’s parliament votes to join the International Criminal Court, straining ties with ally Russia

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Trudeau says Canada not looking to ‘escalate’ situation, vows to engage constructively with India

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Hangzhou Asian Games | Tejaswin shatters decathlon national record to win silver

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“This is a matter between the Maldives and India of course,” the U.S. State Department’s Principal Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel said at the daily press briefing. File
| Photo Credit: X: Vedant Patel/@StateDeputySpox

The U.S. government, on Tuesday, did not weigh in on Maldives president-elect Mohamed Muiz saying he would fulfil his election promise and begin the process of removing Indian military personnel from the country.

“This is a matter between the Maldives and India of course,” the U.S. State Department’s Principal Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel said at the daily press briefing.

“We have never tried to imply one way or the other that any country is required to make any kind of decision about the kinds of exclusionary partnerships that it enters in through its bilateral relationships, whether it be with China or the United States or India or any other country,” Mr. Patel added.

Mr. Muiz is seen as pro-China, unlike the outgoing Maldives president, Mohamed Solih is seen as pro-India.

Also, on Tuesday, the U.S. stuck to its position on the diplomatic discord between Canada and India, over Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s allegation that New Delhi masterminded the killing of a Canadian Khalistani separatist leader, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in British Columbia in June this year. Washington has been urging New Delhi to cooperate with Ottawa as it probe’s Mr. Trudeau’s allegation.

Deteriorating Diplomatic Situation between India and Canada Won’t Impact U.S. Focus on Indo Pacific

On Tuesday, Mr. Patel reiterated that the U.S. was “deeply concerned” about Mr. Trudeau’s allegations and that it was “critical that Canada’s investigation” proceed and the perpetrators brought to justice. Privately and publicly, the U.S. government has urged the Indian authorities to cooperate with the investigation, he said.

Earlier on Tuesday, New Delhi had asked 41 Canadian diplomats to leave India by October 10.

Asked if the U.S. was concerned about Canada retaliating by expelling Indian diplomats en masse, Mr. Patel said that he did not want to get into hypotheticals (i.e., about retaliatory action). The government, which has denied any role in Mr. Nijjar’s death and accused Canada of being soft on separatist activity.

Asked whether a potential “avalanche” of retaliatory diplomatic expulsions would impact the U.S.’s Indo Pacific strategy, Mr. Patel said the U.S. would continue to maintain a focus on the Indo Pacific.

“With India, we are partners with them in the Quad and in many other fora and we continue to work with them and other countries in the region on a number of important issues. But as I said at the top of this, we take these allegations very seriously,” Mr. Patel said, emphasising the U.S.’s request to New Delhi to cooperate with the probe.