In the Lokniti survey, almost three of every 10 Marathas have indicated their preference for the BJP. File
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

For the past three decades, Maharashtra has seen continuous fragmentation of various caste groups, but notably the Maratha-Kunbi caste cluster. The idea of ‘vote bank’ is always employed in discussing the close connection between the Maratha community and the Congress. That vote bank was practically dissolved in the 1995 Assembly election. As the Congress in the State went on declining, its base among Other Backward Classes (OBCs) too became invisible. Since then, the BJP and the Shiv Sena together and separately kept trying to win a larger share of both the Maratha and the OBC vote. In 2014, the BJP emerged as a major player in State politics and began attracting both the Marathas and the OBCs.

In the latest election, the process of coming together of the Marathas and OBCs as supporters of the BJP has gone one step further. In the Lokniti survey, almost three of every 10 Marathas (including the Kunbis) and a little less than four of every 10 OBCs have indicated their preference for the BJP. The rest of the Marathas and OBCs were divided among the Congress, and the Shiv Sena and NCP factions. With one-fourth of the Adivasi respondents and one-fifth of the Scheduled Caste (SC) respondents supporting the BJP, the party has managed to craft an invincible Hindu umbrella.

In the process, these social sections have also supported the other two partners of the Mahayuti, making its community-based support quite wide — except among Muslims and somewhat among the SCs and Adivasis (Table 1).

With most social sections turning to the Mahayuti, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) was left with only skeletal support across social sections. Even among SCs, the larger share went to ‘Others’ rather than the MVA. In particular, almost half of the Buddhists and former Mahar respondents among SCs vote non-MVA and non-Mahayuti parties.

Trends of caste-community voting in this election are in a sense a continuation of the process that started with the election of 2014 — a consolidation of upper castes, Marathas, and OBCs behind BJP, and a somewhat divided political support of SCs, Adivasis and Muslims, who vote less for the BJP but do not necessarily operate as a vote bank supporting any single party.

Suhas Palshikar taught political science and is chief editor of Studies in Indian Politics; Nitin Birmal is Lokniti’s State Coordinator, Maharashtra and a retired professor of Political Science based in Pune