After a shock defeat in France’s legislative elections, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) will double down on weeding out problematic candidates to counter successful efforts by mainstream parties to block the far right from power.

Polls had suggested the RN would secure the most seats in the snap two-round election, which French President Emmanuel Macron called after Ms. Le Pen’s party was the clear victor of June’s European parliamentary vote. Yet the RN ultimately placed third, with its hopes of forming France’s first far-right government since World War II thwarted by centrist and left-wing parties who withdrew about 200 third-placed candidates to unify the anti-RN vote. The strategy, known as the “republican front”, is a feature of French political life and has been used for decades to block the RN from power.

‘Casting errors that cost us dearly’

RN officials and lawmakers who spoke to Reuters believe the party can overcome this electoral barricade if it professionalises further, following a path laid out by Ms. Le Pen after she lost the 2017 presidential election to Macron. That means greater screening of potential candidates and tougher party discipline to avoid costly gaffes, they said.

In the run-up to the vote, media reports unveiled an RN candidate who had been photographed in a Nazi cap and another who sought to defend against the party’s history of racism and antisemitism by saying she had a Jewish eye doctor and Muslim dentist. After the vote, a newly elected RN lawmaker was ejected from the party’s parliamentary group for saying French Arabs had no place in government.

“We have to avoid these casting errors that cost us dearly and clearly hurt us,” said Julien Masson, an RN official in Brittany.

Heads have already begun to roll, with Gilles Pennelle, a member of the European Parliament, stepping down from his role as the RN executive in charge of overseeing candidate lists. “He was blamed for the candidates who were not good, who were not up to the level,” Mr. Masson said. Mr. Pennelle did not respond to requests for comment.

Two RN lawmakers told Reuters there would be more media training to avoid a repeat of embarrassing interviews in which candidates appeared amateurish. RN lawmaker Jean-Philippe Tanguy said the party was judged by an unfair standard, but acknowledged it needed to do better. “You always have to improve,” he told Reuters, adding that Ms. Le Pen’s 28-year-old protege Jordan Bardella would soon announce proposals to address “organisational problems.”

Le Pen’s popularity

Christophe Gervasi, who conducts private polling for the RN, said that as well as inexperienced and ill-disciplined recruits, the party’s tendency to be vague and inconsistent on policy proposals had dented its credibility. The party pledges to cut immigration, reduce fuel costs and be tougher on crime, common themes among populist far-right parties, but has dropped previous positions questioning EU and NATO membership.

Mr. Gervasi said it would be no easy task for the RN to overcome the republican front. “There are endemic structural weaknesses that persist,” he said. “The system is defending itself against the RN’s accession to power.”

Patrick Weil, a historian of the far right, said he doubted that an RN deep-clean would be enough for it to bulldoze the republican front. Much would depend on how the future government pans out and who stands in the 2027 election, in which Ms. Le Pen is likely to make her fourth attempt at the presidency. “If someone popular runs, Marine le Pen will be beaten. If someone very unpopular runs, she will be elected,” he said.

Adélaïde Zulfikarpasic, of BVA Xsight pollsters, said the surprising solidity of the republican front, which many had predicted to crumble in this election, underlined lingering discomfort with the far right. “The RN is undoubtedly still a little scary,” she said. “Its demonisation is not over.”

The tide is rising, says Le Pen

Sunday’s result was not a complete disaster for the RN, which nearly doubled its seats in the National Assembly. The party scooped up nearly a third of the popular vote, a record high for the RN in parliamentary elections.

The party can now watch from the opposition benches as centrist and leftist parties with no tradition of coalition-building guide France through a period of political instability. That could benefit the RN ahead of a 2027 election. “The tide is rising, but it has not risen high enough this time,” Ms. Le Pen said on Sunday. “Our victory is only delayed.”

The day after the vote, Bardella acknowledged the party had made mistakes, including on the choice of some of its candidates, but said the seeds of victory had been sown.

Towns like Nangis, located about 75 k.m. southeast of Paris in the Brie agricultural plain, provide hope for the RN. The constituency was in the hands of the mainstream, conservative right for 66 years until the RN finally wrested it away.

Isabelle Martin, a 52-year-old administrative worker, was among locals who voted for the RN. She was disappointed mainstream parties combined to stop the RN from winning power at the national level, an arrangement she described as “les magouilles”, or dirty deals. But she predicted the resulting political chaos would benefit the RN.

“The others have three years to prove that they can do something good,” Ms. Martin said. “If they haven’t pulled it off by 2027 then maybe (the RN) have a chance.”

People gather at Republique plaza in a protest against the far-right on July 3, 2024 in Paris
| Photo Credit: AP

French voters face a decisive choice on July 7 in the run-off of snap parliamentary elections that could see the country’s first far-right government since the World War II Nazi occupation — or no party emerging with a majority at all. In Sunday’s first round, the National Rally came first with an estimated one-third of the votes. The New Popular Front coalition that included the center-left, green and left forces polled close to 29% of the vote and came in second place, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance.

If the National Rally or the Left alliance gets a majority, Mr. Macron will be forced to appoint a Prime Minister belonging to a new majority. In such a situation — called “cohabitation” in France — the government would implement policies that diverge from the President’s plan. The rise of a far-right party in France has not been sudden. When Mr. Macron was re-elected in 2022, his vote share did not increase in any department. In contrast, his challenger from the far-right National Rally Marine Le Pen’s vote share rose across the country, resulting in the far-right’s best-ever performance. More importantly, the rise of the Right in European politics is not limited to France.

Also Read | The far-right swing in European Parliament elections | Explained

In last month’s European Parliamentary Elections, right-wing and far-right parties achieved their best performance in the legislative body’s history. The far-right European Conservatives and Reformists Group and the Identity and Democracy Group together increased their tally from 118 to 131 seats in the Parliament, while the left-Greens’ seat share was reduced to 53 from 71.

Chart 1 | The chart shows the vote share secured by right-leaning parties in the national-level polls of the U.K. and select countries in the European Union. 

Chart appears incomplete? Click to remove AMP mode

The vote share of right-leaning parties is increasing at varying degrees of pace in each country. For instance, the vote share of the National Rally increased from just 4% in 2007 to 19% in 2022. The German party, Alternative for Germany, recorded over 10% vote share in the last two elections, with the Sweden Democrats vote share increasing from 2% in 2006 to 20% in 2022 in Swedish polls.

Click to subscribe to our Data newsletter

Given that most such parties have an anti-immigrant stance, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights on Wednesday called for vigilance, citing narratives that dehumanise migrants and asylum seekers. One other impact may be on the nations’ views about NATO, and the ongoing-war between Russia and Ukraine.

Also Read | Comment: The spectre of neo-fascism that is haunting Europe

Polls by Pew Survey indicate that in some European countries, positive views about NATO and confidence in Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy have started to decline. In contrast, slight increases in favourable views towards Russia and confidence in Russian President Vladimir Putin were recorded across many European countries in 2024 compared to a year before.

Table 2 | The table lists responses to four questions — Q1: % who have a favourable opinion of NATO; Q2: % who have a favourable view of Russia; Q3: % who have confidence in Mr. Putin to do the right thing; Q4: % who have confidence in Mr. Zelenskyy to do the right thing. The percentage point change in 2024 from 2023 is also listed.

According to Pew Survey, in several European countries, people who have a favourable view of a right-wing populist party in their country see Russia and Mr. Putin more positively than people with unfavourable views of those parties.

Also Read | Turning inward: The Hindu’s Editorial on the rise of far-right parties in Europe

While their support dropped in 2022 and 2023, confidence in Russia and Mr. Putin has climbed back up in 2024 as shown in Chart 3.

Chart 3 | The chart shows the share who have confidence in Russian President, Vladimir Putin, among supporters of right-wing parties.

Source: Pew Research Centre and ParlGov

A woman enters a voting booth in to cast her vote in the French parliamentary elections. File
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

Voters in France’s overseas territories and living abroad started casting ballots on July 6 in parliamentary run-off elections that could hand an unprecedented victory to the nationalist far right.

Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration party National Rally came out on top of first-round voting last on June 30, followed by a coalition of centre-left, hard-left and Greens parties – and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance in a distant third.

The second-round voting began on July 6 off the Canadian coast in the North Atlantic territory of Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, and followed in French territories in the Caribbean, South Pacific and the Indian Ocean, along with French voters living abroad. The elections wrap up on July 7 in mainland France.

Initial polling projections are expected when the final voting stations close at 8 p.m. Paris time (1800 GMT), with early official results expected late on Sunday and early Monday.

Mr. Macron called the snap legislative vote after the National Rally won the most votes in France in the European Parliament elections last month.

The party, which blames immigration for many of France’s problems, has seen its support climb steadily over the past decade and is hoping to obtain an absolute majority in the second round. That would allow National Rally leader Jordan Bardella to become prime minister and form a government that would be at odds with Macron’s policies on Ukraine, police powers and other issues.

Pre-election polls suggest that the party may win the most seats in the National Assembly but fall short of an absolute majority of 289 seats. That could result in a hung parliament.

Mr. Macron has said he won’t step down and will stay president until his term ends in 2027, but is expected to be weakened regardless of the result.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron leaves the polling booth prior to cast his vote in the first round of parliamentary elections at a polling station in Le Touquet, northern France on June 30, 2024. A divided France is voting in high-stakes parliamentary elections that could see the anti-immigrant and eurosceptic party of Marine Le Pen sweep to power in a historic first. The candidates formally ended their frantic campaigns at midnight June 28, with political activity banned until the first round of voting.
| Photo Credit: AFP

French President Emmanuel Macron and his allies were on July 1 beginning a week of intense campaigning ahead of the second round of legislative elections to prevent the far-right from taking an absolute majority and control of government in a historic first.

The far-right National Rally (RN) party of Marine Le Pen won a resounding victory in the first round of the polls on June 30, with Mr. Macron’s centrists trailing in third behind a left-wing coalition.

But the key suspense ahead of the second round on July 7 was whether the RN would win an absolute majority in the new National Assembly, enabling it to form a government and make Ms. Le Pen’s protege Jordan Bardella, 28, Prime Minister.

Most projections published by French polling organisations showed the RN falling short of an absolute majority, but the final outcome remains far from certain.

A hung parliament could lead to months of political paralysis and chaos — just as Paris is preparing to host the Olympic Games this summer, and while France on the international stage takes a prime role in backing Ukraine against the Russian invasion.

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who is likely to be forced to resign after the second round, warned that the far-right was now at the “gates of power”.

The RN should not get a “single vote” in the second round, he said.

“We have seven days to spare France from catastrophe,” said Raphael Glucksmann, a key figure in the left-wing alliance.

‘Thrown under a bus’

The RN garnered 33% of the vote, compared to 28% for the left-wing New Popular Front alliance, and more than 20% for Mr. Macron’s centrist camp, according to preliminary results.

But with less than 100 seats being decided outright in the first round, the final composition of the 577-seat National Assembly will only be clear after the second phase.

The second round will see a three-way or two-way run-off in the remainder of the seats to be decided, with Mr. Macron’s camp hoping that tactical voting will prevent the RN winning the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority.

The French stock market, which had been under considerable pressure in June amid the political uncertainty, also rallied in early trading on hopes the RN would not win an absolute majority.

Mr. Macron in a written statement urged a “broad” coalition against the far-right in the second round, amid controversy among supporters over whether they should tactically vote for the left where needed in the second round.

Late on Sunday, the police said some 8,000 left-wing supporters thronged the Place de la Republique in central Paris to denounce the prospect of the far right taking power.

Risk analysis firm Eurasia Group said the RN now looked “likely” to fall short of an absolute majority.

France was facing “at least 12 months with a rancorously blocked National Assembly and — at best — a technocratic government of ‘national unity’ with limited capacity to govern”, it added.

The left-leaning newspaper Liberation in an editorial called on Macron to remove all his alliance’s candidates from districts when they had arrived in third place to give the left-wing alliance a chance.

“The head of State has thrown France under the bus. The bus has continued its course unimpeded, and is now parked in front of the gates of Matignon”, the prime minister’s office, it said.

‘Prime Minister of all French’

The arrival of the anti-immigration and eurosceptic RN in government would be a turning point in French modern history: the first time a far-right force has taken power in the country since World War II, when it was occupied by Nazi Germany.

Mr. Bardella said he wanted to be the “prime minister of all French”.

This would create a tense period of “cohabitation” with Mr. Macron, who has vowed to serve out his term until 2027.

Mr. Bardella has said he will only form a government if the RN wins an absolute majority in the elections.

Rancour remained over Mr. Macron’s decision to call the election in the first place, a move he took with only a tight circle of advisers in the hours after his party was trounced by the RN in European elections this month.

The chaos risks damaging the international credibility of Mr. Macron, regarded by some as the European Union’s number-one leader and who immediately after the second round will attend the NATO summit in Washington.

The right-wing Le Figaro in its editorial lamented a “disaster” brought about by the “unfathomable lightness of a man, through narcissist rancour, took the risk of plunging his country into chaos”.

Paris:

Here’s how the second round of France’s parliamentary election on July 7 will work and the possible scenarios after exit polls showed Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party had won Sunday’s first round.

HOW DOES IT WORK?

Elections for the 577 seats in France’s National Assembly are a two-round process.

In constituencies where no candidate won outright in the first round, the top two candidates, as well as any candidate with more than 12.5% of the total number of registered voters in that constituency, move to a second round.

Whoever gets the most votes in the second round wins the seat.

The high turnout on Sunday means some 300 constituencies are now facing potential three-way run-offs which, in theory, favour the RN.

To prevent these three-way run-offs and block the RN, France’s centre-right and centre-left politicians have long practiced what they call a “republican front,” whereby the third-placed candidate drops out of the race and urges voters to rally behind the second-placed candidate.

All candidates through to the run-off have until Tuesday evening to decide whether to stand down or run the second round.

HOW IS IT LOOKING THIS TIME?

Many political leaders gave guidance to candidates and voters on Sunday evening.

President Emmanuel Macron urged a “wide-ranging rally behind republican and democratic” candidates for the second round, effectively guiding against both the far-right Nationaly Rally and the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party.

His former Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe, explicity called on the candidates from his party to drop out if they were in third position and rally behind candidates from the centre-left to the centre-right, excluding the RN and LFI.

On the left, the Socialist and LFI leaders also called on their third-placed candidates to drop out to block the RN.

The conservative Republicans party, which split ahead of the vote with a small number of its lawmakers joining forces with the RN, gave no guidance.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW?

The effectiveness of the “republican front” has weakened over the years, and many voters no longer heed the advice of party leaders.

It is also possible that candidates will refuse to drop out despite guidance from political HQs in Paris.

But talks over the next 48 hours will be crucial and could swing the results significantly, potentially deciding whether the RN reaches an outright majority in parliament or not.

That makes the result of the second round extraordinarily hard to predict. Even pollsters have urged caution on their own seat projections.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Paris:

Emmanuel Macron has taken many risks in a political career marked by countless crises but his decision to call snap elections may be one too many, marring his legacy and ushering in an era of extremes.

The tremors from Macron dissolving the National Assembly after his centrist party suffered a drubbing in European polls remain strong, with even figures close to the president acknowledging unease over the political turmoil.

The far-right National Rally (RN) on Sunday won the first round of legislative elections.

Next week’s second-round results on July 7 could give the party of Macron’s longtime rival Marine Le Pen the post of prime minister for the first time, forcing a tense “cohabitation”.

Macron’s popularity has sunk to the extent that allies suggested he take a back seat in the campaign, with Prime Minister Gabriel Attal leading the way.

For one of Macron’s most loyal supporters, some of the resentment stems from his unexpected rise to the presidency.

“There’s a desire for revenge on the part of politicians who resent his success,” said Francois Patriat, head of the pro-Macron deputies in the upper house Senate.

Always defiant, Macron insisted in a statement as the first results were published on “the importance of this vote for all our compatriots and the desire to clarify the political situation”.

‘Hopeless optimist’

Born in Amiens to two doctors, Macron met his future wife Brigitte when she was his teacher and 25 years his senior.

“He fell in love with his drama teacher when he was 16, and he said he was going to marry her, and then he married her. That’s pretty strong stuff,” said a former classmate from the elite graduate school ENA.

With that same self-confidence, he quit the government of former president Francois Hollande in August 2016 to prepare his run for the presidency, a risky move at the time.

He went on to create En Marche (On the Move), a political movement with the same initials as its leader and won the presidential election in 2017 at the age of 39.

Calling himself a “hopeless optimist,” Macron later said he was able to break through “because France was unhappy and worried”. 

Optimism over the former Rothschild investment banker, who once promoted “Revolution” in his book, quickly soured over his economic policies once in office.

The former economy minister under a Socialist government earned the reputation as “president of the rich” after announcing early in his tenure that he would abolish a tax on high earners.

Then, last year, his move to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 sparked mass protests and reinforced the perception that Macron is out of touch with public opinion.

“There are a lot of people who think I’m haughty,” he said. Early quips haunted him, including one when he said the unemployed only needed to “cross the street” to find a job.

The now 46-year-old is convinced that his economic track record speaks for itself, with France considered Europe’s most attractive country for foreign investment and an end to mass unemployment.

But for many, Macron’s promise of centrism has not withstood pressure from a wave of domestic and international crises — or from the far right.

‘Lack of humility’

The anti-government “yellow vest” movement, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine are just a few of the challenges Macron has faced during his tenure.

Even as his support buckles at home, Macron has remained a key voice in European politics.

“We shouldn’t quibble. He’s the great European of his time,” said Franco-German ecologist Daniel Cohn-Bendit, while adding that Macron’s problem was that he was “convinced of being right”.

Macron aligned with allies offering support to Ukraine after Russia’s 2022 invasion, but he irritated many by continuing to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Two years later however, some criticise him for his hawkish stance. Macron refuses to rule out sending troops to Ukraine, a move criticised by other Western countries as unnecessarily inflammatory.

The late Gerard Collomb, former mayor of Lyon, was more direct in his criticism, calling out Macron’s “hubris” and a “lack of humility” in the government.

The perception that Macron is increasingly isolated is part of the problem, said one former advisor. 

“He has no grassroots network… the people around him are the same, they don’t express the mood of the times,” they added.

While the first lady is seen as a moderating figure, Macron has shifted rightward, with some accusing the president of opportunism. 

‘Shifting opinion’

On the evening of his 2017 victory, Macron pledged in front of the Louvre museum to do “everything” in his power to ensure the French “no longer have any reason to vote for the extremes”.

For many, though, the young centrist whom they voted for has shifted further and further right, opening the door for other extremes to take hold.

The same man who drew inspiration from an anti-capitalist party slogan to win re-election in 2022 later adopted the words of extreme right-wing figure Eric Zemmour “so that France remains France”. 

For Le Pen, who senses a chance to take the presidency in 2027, Macron has “a plasticity, an incredible self-confidence which is both his strength and his weakness”.

A former special advisor sees that plasticity differently.

“He’s turning his back on … 2017 and humanist values,” said Philippe Grangeon. “There is no right-wing turn… the president is adapting to shifting opinion.” 

Macron dismisses these criticisms, saying he ultimately relies on himself. “You make the toughest decisions on your own,” he said.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Supporters of Marine Le Pen, French far-right leader and far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally – RN) party candidate, celebrate after partial results in the first round of the early French parliamentary elections, in Henin-Beaumont, France, on June 30, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

France’s far-right National Rally (RN) party was seen leading the first round of parliamentary elections with around 34% of votes, pollsters IFOP, Ipsos, OpinionWay and Elabe said on Sunday.

The leftwing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition was seen coming in second with around 29%, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist bloc in third spot with between 20.5-23%.

Elabe said in an estimate for BFM TV that the National Rally and its allies could win between 260-310 parliament seats in the second voting round on July 7, while Ipsos projected a range of 230-280 seats for RN and its allies in a poll for France Television.

289 seats are needed for an absolute majority in the National Assembly, France’s lower house of parliament.