A file photo of the flag of Republic of Maldives.

Despite global lenders and rating agencies flagging a “high risk” of debt distress in the Maldives, the government said it is well prepared to stave off a financial meltdown.

Addressing Colombo-based journalists on Friday evening (September 13, 2024), Minister of Foreign Affairs Moosa Zameer and Minister of Finance Mohamed Shafeeq ruled out a possible default and pointed to “crucial steps” taken by the government towards fiscal consolidation and reform.

India, Maldives hold defence dialogue focusing on Indian Ocean

The top officials’ assurance comes days after rating agency Moody’s downgraded the island country’s credit rating and warned of a full-blown debt crisis and possible default, amid looming deadlines for foreign debt servicing.

President Mohamed Muizzu assumed office in November 2023 after a big election win — he has a comfortable majority in Parliament or People’s Majlis as well — but currently faces a daunting challenge as the Indian Ocean archipelago grapples with high external debt. “The Muizzu administration is taking advice from the International Monetary Fund, but there is no immediate plan to sign up for its programme,” the Ministers said, expressing confidence that its bilateral partners would step in.

China is the Maldives’s largest creditor and India is another key lender. The two countries are financing a host of infrastructure projects that the government hopes will aid better connectivity and economic development. “Both India and China are very sensitive to our challenge and are willing to help,” Mr. Zameer said, pointing to “many options” on the table, including a possible debt freeze, currency swaps, and local currency settlements. “We will discuss these as and when there is a need.”

On Friday (September 13, 2024), the Maldives’s Ministry of Economic Development & Trade signed an agreement with the People’s Bank of China to establish a local currency settlement framework. Authorities are in talks with India for a similar arrangement.

“We are already taking all the necessary steps including reform of State-Owned Enterprises and our health sector. We are switching from blanket to targeted subsidies and rationalising our public expenditure,” Mr. Shafees said. Following the downgrade by Moody’s, the Finance Ministry said it was engaging with all its bilateral and multilateral partners to meet the financing requirements, and that a “strong performance” in the vital tourism sector was expected to boost growth.

Tourist arrivals have seen an uptick in 2024. Chinese arrivals lead the list, contributing 12% of visitors, while arrivals from India declined sharply from 11% of visitors to 6%, the World Bank said in its May 2024 update. The period coincides with strained bilateral ties between India and the Maldives, on the heels of the “India Out” campaign around Mr. Muizzu’s election last year, and amid controversial statements made by two junior ministers in his government that triggered a call to “boycott Maldives” within India.

Emphasising that relations have since seen a marked improvement, Mr. Zameer said Indian tourist arrivals are “picking up very well” and the neighbours are keen to strengthen ties. “We have had high-level engagement”, including External Affairs Minister Jaishankar’s visit to the Maldives in August, and the countries’ “very pragmatic” leaders have addressed the “initial mistrust”, he said. President Muizzu is expected to travel to New Delhi soon on his first bilateral visit, although he has Mr. Modi on the sidelines of other global meets and at Mr. Modi’s swearing in ceremony this year.

“I think India-Maldives ties now are as good as they were during President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom’s time, which is considered the best time in our relationship,” Mr. Zameer added.

Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu has slammed the move as an “illegal attempt” to overthrow his government
| Photo Credit: AP

Police in the Maldives are investigating an alleged attempt to topple President Mohamed Muizzu by stirring anger over the Indian Ocean archipelago’s worsening financial woes.

Last week, the main commercial bank in the upmarket tourist destination drastically reduced the foreign exchange spending allowed for Maldivians, sparking widespread anger.

Mr. Muizzu has slammed the move as an “illegal attempt” to overthrow his government, by making him unpopular and encouraging street protests.

“An investigation has been launched into the alleged coup attempt,” the police said in a statement on Monday. (August 26, 2024)

There have been no demonstrations in the capital Male, but scathing criticism of the government has erupted online.

“Hundreds of ‘bot’ accounts have been used on social media to encourage people to take to the streets to overthrow the government and incite public unrest,” police said.

The bank said the changes, which they have since rescinded, came “in response to the escalating usage of foreign currency spend on cards and the static sale of foreign currency to the Bank”.

The international credit rating agency Fitch downgraded the Maldives in June and warned it could be headed for a sovereign default, after its foreign currency reserves dropped to $492 million in May.

The downgrade came weeks after the IMF warned the Maldives against a looming “debt distress”, as the small but strategically placed country eyes further borrowing from main creditor China.

Pivot to China

Official data showed the Maldives’ foreign debt reaching $4.038 billion last year, about 118 percent of gross domestic product, an increase of nearly $250 million from 2022.

Fitch had noted the government’s debt servicing obligations, amounting to $409 million this year, would add to severe stress.

The crisis escalated over the weekend, when the Bank of Maldives Limited (BML) stopped debit card transactions, and allowed a maximum monthly credit card spend of $100 for online transactions.

Maldivians use their cards to pay for tuition and medical treatment abroad apart from online purchases.

Mr. Muizzu told supporters the bank decision was a plot to discredit him, and accused some BML directors of being loyal to the former government.

“There is room to believe that this (cap on spending) was an illegal attempt to overthrow a legitimate government,” Muizzu said.

The bank on Sunday (August 24, 2024) raised forex spending limits after the Maldives Monetary Authority intervened.

Political parties have called on the government to tax hotels in foreign currency.

Since winning office last year, Mr. Muizzu has reoriented his nation from traditional benefactor India and towards China.

As of June 2023, the Export-Import Bank of China owned 25.2 percent of the Maldives’ external debt and was the country’s biggest single lender, Male’s finance ministry figures showed.

Male:

Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu thanked India for its support of the island nation in easing its debt repayment and affirmed hope that New Delhi and Male would forge stronger ties and sign a free trade agreement.

Muizzu was addressing the official Independence Day function in the Maldives on Friday. During his address, he commended the administration’s foreign policy, celebrating eight months of ‘diplomatic success,’ according to the Maldives President Office.

President Muizzu expressed gratitude to India and China for their support in easing the Maldives’ debt repayment, thereby enabling the country to ensure economic sovereignty.

Emphasising the need to alleviate the local shortages of US dollars, he said that the Maldives government is negotiating currency swap agreements with both New Delhi and Beijing.

The Maldives President also announced that his administration is negotiating a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the United Kingdom and expressed hope to reach a similar agreement with India.

Notably, the Mohamed Muizzu government in the Maldives took a reconciliatory tone after ties between the two nations soured, leading to a diplomatic row.

Last month, President Muizzu also attended the oath ceremony of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, after he took office for the third consecutive term.

Earlier this year, Muizzu sought debt relief measures in the repayment of the hefty loans taken from the country over consecutive governments. He even stated that India will continue to remain the Maldives’ “closest ally” and emphasised that there was no question about it.

The loan amount owed by Maldives to India by the end of last year stood at 6.2 billion Maldivian Rufiyaa, according to Maldives-based The Edition.

Notably, earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned Maldives that it faces a high risk of debt distress without significant policy changes.

Notably, Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu has displayed ‘anti-India’ rhetoric and he even ran the electoral campaign on the line of ‘India Out’. The removal of Indian troops from the country was the main election campaign of Muizzu’s party.

Since coming to power, he has taken several steps that have been unconventional from the point of view of India-Maldives ties.

He departed from a long convention by not visiting India on the first official visit and instead went to Turkey, followed by China. During his visit, the two countries elevated their ties to comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership and signed around 20 agreements.

Last December, the Maldives said it would not renew the Hydrographic Survey agreement made with India.

After Muizzu government officially requested India to withdraw troops, the Indian government set up a High-Level Core Group to discuss the matter. The withdrawal of Indian troops was completed in May this year.

Days after the withdrawal of Indian soldiers, Maldives Defence Minister Ghassan Maumoon also acknowledged that the country’s defence forces were capable of operating the three aircraft donated by India,

The row between New Delhi and Male erupted after three Maldivian deputy ministers made derogatory comments against Prime Minister Narendra Modi, over his pictures from the visit to Lakshadweep.

PM Modi had called for the Indian island cluster to be developed as a destination for beach tourism and promotion of domestic tourism.

The matter snowballed into a major diplomatic row, with New Delhi summoning the Maldivian envoy and registering a strong protest against the viral posts. The three deputy ministers were suspended and they remain under suspension with pay.

Maldives Tourism Ministry data showed, earlier this year, that the number of Indian tourists visiting the Maldives dropped by 33 per cent as compared to last year.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

President Mohamed Muizzu has thanked India and China for helping strengthen the Maldives’ fragile economy, highlighting the importance of the two countries in addressing the Island nation’s looming debt crisis and its future development.

China and India provide the most assistance in repaying the country’s debt, President Muizzu said on July 26 at an official function held to mark the 59th anniversary of the country’s independence.

“I thank the Chinese government and the Indian government on behalf of the Maldivian people for their cooperation with this effort to strengthen the economy, to assure our economic sovereignty, for the sake of the Maldivian people,” Mr. Muizzu was quoted as saying by Maldivian news portal adhadhu.com.

Mr. Muizzu came to power last year on an anti-India campaign plank seeking the removal of around 80 Indian military personnel operating helicopters and Dornier aircraft donated by India.

China for its part has scaled up its relations with Maldives, since Mr. Muzzu, widely regarded as a pro-Beijing leader, took over power.

Early this year, he visited China during which the two countries elevated their ties to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership and signed 20 agreements followed by a military assistance pact with Beijing much to the disquiet of India as Maldives is its closest neighbour located strategically in the Indian Ocean.

He also permitted Chinese research vessels also regarded as “spy ships” to berth in Maldives waters after Sri Lanka banned them for a year.

However, after clinching an agreement with India to replace the military personnel flying the helicopters used to evacuate the patients from a host of islands in the archipelagic nation, Mr. Muizzu warmed up to India and attended Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swearing ceremony.

He also praised ₹400 crore assistance by India and sought to restructure debt owed to India by Maldives.

The marked change in his policy towards India came as in May this year the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned the Maldives that it faces a high risk of debt distress without significant policy changes.

The IMF noted that the Maldives’ current account deficit is expected to remain large and that its overall fiscal deficits and public debt are projected to stay elevated.

Following this, the Muizzu government sought the restructuring of loans from China. Maldives debt to China reportedly amounted to over $1.3 billion about which Beijing initially expressed reservations to restructure the debt.

Mr. Muizzu said in his July 26 meeting that China has given the green light on deferring loan repayments for five years which will be a big relief to avert Maldives falling into a similar situation faced by Sri Lanka leading to debt default.

At the height of the Sri Lankan crisis, China declined to restructure loans taken by Colombo. India stepped in to bailout Sri Lanka from the crisis with about $4 billion in assistance.

A large portion of the loans taken by the Maldives from China’s Exim Bank for development projects during former President Mr. Yameen’s government must be repaid in 2026, according to adhadhu.com report.

The Maldives will face a serious fiscal crisis if the loans are not restructured.

Technical work on restructuring the loans taken from China’s Exim Bank is ongoing, which was how President Muizzu believed that “foreign policy should be shaped to protect the country’s independence,” the report said.

Mr. Muizzu also said the implementation of a free trade agreement (FTA) signed between the Maldives and China during Mr. Yameen’s government will begin in September and expressed hope to sign a similar agreement with India as well.

Efforts are also underway to enter into FTAs with Turkiye and Britain.

The result of implementing the FTA with China would be the elimination of tariffs for a total of 7,897 items in nine sectors, including 298 fisheries products, Mr. Muizzu said.

He also said his government is working on currency swap agreements with China and India to help local businesses.

This would pave the way for alleviating the dollar shortage and assuring economic sovereignty, he said.

For its part, China continues to ramp up its aid to Maldives by strengthening its collaboration in key infrastructure and renewable energy projects that are vital for the sustainable development of the Maldives.

Maldives Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer who was in Beijing early this week held talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi and other officials.

During his visit, the two countries signed a Letter of Exchange on the feasibility study for the redevelopment of Male and Villimal Roads Project, a key pledge of Mr. Muizzu’s government.

The discussions focused on strengthening collaboration in key infrastructure projects that are vital for the sustainable development of the Maldives, the Maldivian Foreign Ministry said in a press release on July 23.

File photo of Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu.
| Photo Credit: AP

India has withdrawn all its soldiers from the Maldives, the government here has said, ahead of the May 10 deadline set by President Mohamed Muizzu for the complete withdrawal of Indian military personnel from his country.

President Muizzu, widely seen as a pro-China leader, had set May 10 as the deadline for the withdrawal of the Indian military personnel from his country. Repatriation of some 90 Indian military personnel stationed in the Maldives was a key pledge of Mr. Muizzu during his presidential campaign last year.

Also read: Unravelling the shift in India-Maldives relations | Explained 

The last batch of Indian soldiers stationed in the Maldives have been repatriated, confirmed Heena Waleed, President’s Office Chief Spokesperson told Sun.mv news portal, without giving the number of Indian soldiers.

She added details about the number of the soldiers stationed would be disclosed later.

The Indian military personnel were stationed in the Maldives to operate and maintain two helicopters and Dornier aircraft India gifted earlier.

Earlier, the Maldives government announced that 51 of these soldiers were repatriated to India on May 6.

The government earlier announced the presence of 89 Indian soldiers in the Maldives, citing official documents.

India and the Maldives had agreed to withdraw the remaining Indian troops before May 10.

At a media briefing in New Delhi on May 9, External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said the first and the second batches of the Indian personnel returned to India and “now deputation of competent Indian technical personnel has taken place” to operate the three Indian aviation platforms.

The development came as Maldivian Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer visited India. He met External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on May 9.

They had “extensive discussions” on bilateral ties and regional security issues. The relations between the two countries came under severe strain after Mr. Muizzu insisted on the withdrawal of Indian military personnel operating three military platforms in the island nation.

The Maldives is India’s key maritime neighbour in the Indian Ocean Region and occupies a special place in its initiatives like ‘SAGAR’ (Security and Growth for All in the Region) and the ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’ of the Modi government.

President-elect of the Maldives Mohamed Muizzu (right) of the People’s National Congress party attends a gathering with supporters following the country’s presidential election, in Male on October 02, 2023.
| Photo Credit: AFP

The new Maldives President-elect’s transition team hopes to invite Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the swearing-in ceremony of Mohamed Muizzu in Male next month, says Maldives speaker and former President Mohamed Nasheed.

In an interview to The Hindu, Mr. Nasheed — who has broken away from outgoing President Ibu Solih and his Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) to form his own party, which could join the incoming government — said that he would also send an invitation to Mr. Modi for the ceremony expected to be held on November 17. He stressed his belief that the new Maldivian President would not be “anti-India” or “pro-China”, as he has generally been portrayed in recent commentary. 

Mr. Modi had attended Mr. Solih’s swearing-in ceremony in 2018, a rare gesture that he has not made for any other leader in the neighbourhood thus far. Dr. Muizzu — the former Mayor of Male who campaigned on a “sovereignty” plank in the election — had served in the Yameen government as Minister for Housing (2013-2018), and was responsible for many of the infrastructure projects that Chinese companies won at the time, leading to the impression that he will follow the policies that had earlier strained ties with India.

Combating anti-India perceptions

“The international media has characterised our election as between India and China, and also has characterised Dr. Muizzu as pro-China. I don’t think all this was exactly true,” Mr. Nasheed said, claiming that the “India Out” campaign started by the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), which is part of the ruling coalition, was not the “main election issue”. Anti-incumbency was the chief reason for the MDP’s loss in the Presidential run-off poll held last Saturday, Mr. Nasheed said.

“The campaign against Indian military presence here has subsided and that really wasn’t the main campaign point… My feeling is that he will continue with our foreign policy… He would know that the relations with India go back hundreds of years, and I can’t see much changing because of a change in government,” Mr. Nasheed said, when asked to comment on Dr. Muizzu’s statement at a public rally this week that the people had voted against “foreign troops”. He indicated that the President-elect may allow approximately 75 Indian military personnel stationed in the Maldives to stay and help maintain and operate the helicopters and Dornier aircraft gifted by India.

Harbour project deal

Every Maldivian government, dating back to the rule of former President Abdul Gayoom, had appreciated the role of Indian security forces in the Indian Ocean, Mr. Nasheed said. He added that a rollback of the now-contentious Uthuru Thilafalhu Coastguard Harbour project, based on a deal with India signed in 2021, was unlikely.

“I can’t see why we would want to do anything to change this agreement. There’s nothing wrong with it,” said Mr. Nasheed, adding that the reason for the controversy was the previous government’s refusal to make the Uthuru Thilafahlu Project agreement for the development of a harbour to dock, maintain and repair Maldivian National Defence Forces’ coast guard vessels.

“I’m most sensitive of our security and safety and we know that terrorist organisations can come from anywhere. A few hundred people can come and really disturb the Maldives, and there’s nothing better than having closer defence cooperation with India,” Mr. Nasheed added.

Switched loyalties

While Mr. Nasheed had cordial ties with India during his tenure as Maldives President from 2008 to 2012, the relationship went sour over the past decade over the impression that New Delhi had switched its loyalties to the Solih government.

After breaking from Mr. Solih and the MDP in June this year, Mr. Nasheed launched a new party, called The Democrats. In the Presidential poll, it put up its own candidate against Mr. Solih and won about 7% of the vote. This was nearly enough, say analysts, to have helped the incumbent President win narrowly if the MDP had stayed united. When asked if he had played spoiler, Mr. Nasheed rejected the charge. 

“I have been telling everyone since 2020 that Mr. Solih would not win a re-election bid,” said Mr. Nasheed, arguing that the current Presidential election format in a multiparty system made it difficult for any incumbent to win more than 50% of the vote. The Maldivian Speaker has now been pushing for a referendum to move to a more parliamentary system, and said that he would try to make the case for that with the new President once he is sworn in.

“The people have decided and don’t want Indian troops to stay in the Maldives. Therefore, foreign soldiers cannot be here against our sentiments, against our will,’’ the President-elect said.
| Photo Credit: AFP

India looks forward to engaging the new Maldives government on “all issues”, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said on Thursday, responding to the Maldivian President-elect Mohamed Muizzu’s statement that Indian military personnel would be asked to leave the islands.

On Wednesday evening, Indian High Commissioner to Male Munnu Mahawar met Mr. Muizzu, and handed over a letter from Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulating him on his electoral victory.

“Our High Commissioner in Male called on the President-elect, and he had a good discussion on various aspects of our bilateral relationship including development cooperation,” MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said. 

‘India Out’ campaign

Last Saturday’s run-off election saw Mr. Muizzu, the former Mayor of Male, defeat incumbent Maldives President Ibu Solih by 19,000 votes, or an 8% margin. The results have been widely seen as an upset for India, that had close ties with the Solih administration. Speaking at a public rally after the elections, Mr. Muizzu, who stood as the candidate for the PNC-PPM coalition that had campaigned on an “India Out” plank, had said that the “sovereignty” of the Maldives was most important.

“The people have decided and don’t want Indian troops to stay in the Maldives. Therefore, foreign soldiers cannot be here against our sentiments, against our will,’’ the President-elect was quoted as saying by Maldivian news outlets on Tuesday.

“So, I have to tell the [Indian] ambassador who is going to meet me that we will have a very good relationship with these values,” he had added. 

Coast Guard project opposed

While India has had a strong military presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) for many years, naval and airforce personnel have been stationed in the Addu and Lammu islands since 2013 in order to maintain and operate two helicopters and Dornier aircraft that India had loaned the Maldives for reconnaissance operations over the past decade. In November 2021, the Maldives National Defence Force told a Parliamentary Committee that a total of 75 Indian military personnel were stationed in the Maldives.

In February 2021, the Maldivian opposition protested an MoU or draft agreement on maritime security signed by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar with the Maldives Defence Minister, in order to construct a Coast Guard harbour base at the Uthuru Thilafalhu atoll. The construction was inaugurated during a visit by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh in May this year, and this has been the focus of the PPM’s “India Out” protests. 

‘Close collaboration needed’

While the MEA spokesperson did not specifically respond to Mr. Muizzu’s threat to remove Indian military personnel — a move that could overturn an important component of India-Maldives strategic ties in the past few years — he said that the two countries needed to cooperate “closely”.

“The focus of our partnership with Maldives has always been on capacity building and working together to address our shared challenges and priorities. As neighbours, we need to collaborate closely to address the challenges confronting our region such as transnational crimes and Humanitarian Assistance Disaster Relief,” Mr. Bagchi said, adding that the government looks forward to “engaging with the new administration in Maldives on all such issues.” 

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday pledged to deepen bilateral ties with the Maldives as he congratulated President-elect Mohamed Muizzu, whose party campaigned for forging close ties with Beijing.

Mr. Muizzu, from the People’s National Congress and a close associate of former Maldives President Abdulla Yameen who forged close ties with China during his Presidency from 2013 to 2018, defeated India-friendly incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih in the presidential runoff held on Saturday.

Mr. Yameen is currently serving an 11-year prison sentence for corruption.

In his message, Mr. Xi said that China and the Maldives enjoy a long history of friendly exchanges.

Mr. Xi, who visited Maldives in 2014 and announced several Chinese investments under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which subsequently evoked criticism of being “debt traps” by the country’s Opposition parties, said the two countries are not only friends of sincere trust and mutual assistance but also partners of joint development and common prosperity.

He said he attaches great importance to the development of bilateral relations and stands ready to work with President-elect Mr. Muizzu to carry forward the traditional friendship, deepen practical cooperation and push for new progress in the future-oriented, all-round friendly and cooperative partnership between the two countries, state-run Xinhua news agency reported.

Mr. Muizzu’s election raised expectations in China that the archipelagic state strategically located in the Indian Ocean close to India’s southern coast will pursue pro-Beijing policies, unlike Solih who pursued India’s first policy and established close ties with New Delhi.

Mr. Muizzu is due to take over the office on November 17 after which he was expected to outline his foreign policy priorities.

During Mr. Solih’s tenure, India besides undertaking many infrastructure projects and providing economic assistance to Maldives which has a population of 5.21 lakh people also actively campaigned for Maldives Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid election as President of the UN General Assembly. India also provided vaccines to Maldives during the Covid crisis.

Observers say despite his party’s pro-China rhetoric, Muizzu, a British-educated civil engineer, may follow a more nuanced foreign policy as the country faces a precarious economy with several debt repayments due, taking a cue from the worst economic crisis faced by Sri Lanka.

India stepped in with $4 billion in assistance to Sri Lanka while China dithered despite massive BRI investments in the country including the Hambantota port which Beijing took over for a 99-year lease as debt swap.

Maldives’ President-elect of the Maldives’ Mohamed Muizzu (C) of the People’s National Congress (PNC) party delivers a speech during a gathering with supporters following the country’s presidential election, in Male on October 2, 2023.
| Photo Credit: AFP

The President-elect of the Maldives said he will stick to his campaign promise to remove Indian military personnel stationed in the archipelago state, promising he would initiate the process.

Mohamed Muizzu told his supporters gathered Monday night at a celebration of his election victory that he wouldn’t stand for a foreign military staying in the Maldives against the will of its citizens.

“The people have told us that they don’t want foreign military here,” he said.

It’s a serious blow to India in its geopolitical rivalry with China in the India Ocean region, where the Maldives’ presidential run-off election on Saturday was seen as a virtual referendum on which of the regional powers would have the biggest influence on the archipelago. Outgoing President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who was elected President in 2018, was battling allegations by Mr. Muizzu that he had allowed India an unchecked presence in the country. Mr. Muizzu’s party, the People’s National Congress, is viewed as heavily pro-China.

Mr. Muizzu’s main campaign theme was about an alleged threat to the Maldives’ sovereignty by some Indian military personnel on an island, part of the party’s yearslong “India out” strategy.

Mr. Solih insisted that the Indian military’s presence in the Maldives was only to build a dockyard under an agreement between the two governments and that his country’s sovereignty won’t be violated.

The number of Indian troops in the Maldives is unknown. Critics say the secrecy behind the agreement between the two governments regarding the placement of military personnel and their role has led to suspicion and rumor. Known activities of the Indian military include operating two helicopters donated by India and assisting in the rescue of people stranded or faced with calamities at sea.

Former President Abdulla Yameen, leader of the People’s National Congress, made the Maldives a part of China’s Belt and Road initiative during his presidency from 2013 to 2018. The initiative is meant to build railroads, ports and highways to expand trade — and China’s influence — across Asia, Africa and Europe.

Yameen was transferred Sunday from prison to house arrest, already fulfilling one of Muiz’s campaign promises before he officially takes office on Nov. 17.

The Maldives is made up of 1,200 coral islands in the Indian Ocean, located by the main shipping route between the East and the West.

Maldives’ main opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu casts his vote in Male, Maldives, on September 30, 2023.
| Photo Credit: AP

Frontrunner and Opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu appeared poised for victory in the Maldivian presidential race, provisional results of Saturday’s run-off showed, as he beat the India-friendly incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih in a closely fought contest in the Indian Ocean archipelago.

Also read: The Hindu Profiles: Who is Mohamed Muizzu? 

The second round of the presidential election saw a higher voter turnout of 86%, compared to the 79.85% recorded in the first, the lowest seen in a Maldivian presidential election.  Around 9 p.m. IST, the Election Commission of Maldives showed Mr. Muizzu having garnered about 56% of the vote, while Mr. Solih had secured nearly 46%.  

The vote for change in the Maldives comes after a strong anti-incumbency sentiment against the Solih administration, and a concerted Opposition campaign, led by his rival, former President and jailed leader Abdulla Yameen, demanding ‘India out’ of the country.

President Solih came under sharp attack from the Opposition for his close India ties. While the Opposition People’s National Congress-Progressive Party of Maldives coalition’s pro-China stance is no secret, observers within the Maldives have said Mr. Muizzu is unlikely to abruptly sever ties with India.  The newly-elected leader would seek to balance India-China ties, they note, even as New Delhi hopes for continuity in India’s many infrastructure projects across the island nation.

Both candidates had made big promises on housing, a preoccupation for the Maldivian voter, as the island nation battles congestion and development skewed towards capital Male, while several other atolls await basic amenities. The winner of Saturday’s election, which followed an inconclusive first round on September 9, 2023, will have his task cut out, as the country faces mounting debt, dwindling foreign reserves and heightening climate risks.

The Maldives is also preparing for a referendum next month, for citizens to decide if the country must switch to a parliamentary system of governance, a long-time demand of former President and parliamentary Speaker Mohamed Nasheed. After his fallout with his party colleague and friend Mr. Solih —it is seen as a major reason for Mr. Solih’s electoral defeat —Mr. Nasheed backed a young aspirant who came third in the first round, and exited the race.