New Delhi:

Heavy rainfall across large parts of India has compensated for the June deficit, bringing the overall monsoon precipitation into the surplus category.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), more spells of heavy to very heavy rain are likely over northwest India and the western parts of the peninsular India during the next two-three days and over the northeast during the next five days.

India, the world’s top producer of critical crops such as rice, wheat and sugarcane, logged a rainfall deficit of 11 percent in June, with northwest India recording a shortfall of 33 per cent.

Heavy rain in the first week of July compensated for the shortfall but caused flooding in many northeastern states.

Since the four-month monsoon season began on June 1, the country has received 214.9 mm of rainfall against a normal of 213.3 mm, according to IMD data.

Northwest India and the southern peninsula have recorded 3 per cent and 13 per cent above-normal rainfall, respectively.

The heavy rain in the east and northeast region has reduced the deficit from 13 per cent on June 30 to zero on July 6.

The rainfall deficit in central India has decreased from 14 per cent to 6 per cent during this period.

The IMD data showed that 23 per cent of the sub-divisional area of the country experienced excess to large excess rainfall, 67 percent received normal rainfall, and only 10 per cent experienced deficient rainfall.

After making an early onset over Kerala and the northeastern region on May 30, and progressing normally up to Maharashtra, the monsoon lost momentum.

This delayed the rains in West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh and exacerbated the impact of a scorching heatwave in northwest India.

Monsoonal winds stalled from June 10 to June 18 and made slow progress until June 26-27. The annual rain-bearing system covered a major part of northwest India after June 25, according to IMD data.

The weather department on Saturday said heavy rainfall will continue in northeast India over the next five days.

The northeastern states are already grappling with severe floods.

Assam’s flood situation remains critical, with over 2.45 million people affected and 52 lives lost in the second wave of flooding this year.

Heavy rainfall in Manipur, Mizoram, and Arunachal Pradesh has caused rivers to reach warning levels and triggered landslides.

The IMD earlier this week said India could experience above-normal rainfall in July, and heavy rain may lead to floods in the hilly states and river basins in the central parts of the country.

Experts from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), a Nepal-based intergovernmental organisation, have also warned about a difficult monsoon season for the countries in the Hindukush Himalayan region, including Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan.

IMD data shows that in 20 out of the 25 years when June rainfall was below normal (less than 92 percent of the long-period average), July rainfall was normal (94-106 percent of LPA) or above normal.

In 17 of the 25 years when June rainfall was below normal, the seasonal rainfall was normal or above normal, the IMD said.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

New Delhi:

Parts of Delhi today received heavy rain, bringing relief from the prevailing sultry conditions. Visuals shared by the news agency ANI showed heavy downpours in Munirka, Sarita Vihar, and other parts of the national capital with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting more showers during the day.

#WATCH | Parts of Delhi receive heavy rainfall, bringing respite from heat.

Visuals from Sarita Vihar area. pic.twitter.com/OHkSOURVpB

— ANI (@ANI) June 27, 2024

“Light to moderate intensity rain and gusty winds with speed of 30-40 Km/h would occur over and adjoining areas of few places of Delhi during the next two hours,” the IMD said in a post on X at 7:30 AM.

The weather agency also predicted rain over Ghaziabad, Noida, and Gurugram.

Ghaziabad, Indirapuram, Chhapraula, Noida, Greater Noida, Faridabad) Panipat, Gohana, Gannaur (Haryana) Baraut, Bagpat, Meerut, Khekra, Modinagar, Pilakhua, Hapur, Gulaoti (U.P.) during next 2 hours. pic.twitter.com/qJ95g6K1SA

— RWFC New Delhi (@RWFC_ND) June 27, 2024

The much-awaited rain came after Delhi and other parts of north India witnessed weeks of intense spells of heatwave.

Delhi had been reeling from the sweltering heat and has recorded nine heatwave days in June so far against none in 2023 and 2022.

Earlier on Wednesday, the IMD predicted that Delhi’s maximum and minimum temperatures today would be around 38 degrees Celsius and 29 degrees Celsius, respectively.

The Safdarjung Observatory, the capital’s primary weather station, had recorded a temperature of 39 degrees Celsius on Wednesday, two notches above normal.

Monsoon Expected To Arrive In Delhi By End Of This Week

The monsoon could arrive in Delhi by the end of this week, a private weather agency forecast on Wednesday.

According to Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather Services, “The monsoon is expected to reach Delhi on June 29 or 30.” 

The IMD, however, has not shared any details of when the monsoon current is likely to enter the capital.

The monsoon current typically enters the city between June 27 and June 29. Last year, it arrived on June 26 while the first monsoon showers of 2022 were recorded on June 30.

New Delhi:

Southwest monsoon has hit the coast of Kerala and advanced into parts of northeast from Thursday, a day ahead of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast.

Earlier, the weather office had announced the onset of monsoon over Kerala by May 31.

Kerala has been receiving heavy rains for the past few days resulting in a surplus May rainfall.

The normal monsoon onset date for Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Manipur, and Assam is June 5.

However, scientists said that Cyclone Remal, which ripped through West Bengal and Bangladesh on Sunday, had pulled the monsoonal flow to the Bay of Bengal, resulting in its early onset over the north-east.

The monsoon is supposed to reach Delhi, which witnessed record-breaking heat on Wednesday, by the end of June. Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Skymet told NDTV that Delhi is likely to witness monsoon by June 27.

India is likely to receive an average amount of rain in June, although maximum temperatures in the month are likely to remain above normal, according to IMD.

This year’s monsoon rains are expected to be 106% of the long-term average.

The IMD defines average or normal rainfall as between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm for the four-month season.

Monsoon is critical for India’s agricultural landscape, with 52 per cent of the net cultivated area relying on it. It is also crucial for replenishing reservoirs critical for drinking water, apart from power generation across the country.

June and July are considered the most important monsoon months for agriculture because most of the sowing for the Kharif crop takes place during this period.

(With agency inputs)

Stocks of Indian firms that earn a large chunk of their revenues from the nation’s hinterland are showing signs of a revival, as traders bet that bountiful monsoon rains will lead to better crop yields and boost rural demand.

Motorcycle manufacturers, farm-equipment makers and producers of fast-moving consumer goods have rallied following forecasts of timely and above-normal monsoon rains in 2024, after extreme and unseasonal heat wreaked havoc on Indian agriculture in the last two years. Sales volumes in rural areas are improving and several major consumer goods firms have predicted stronger business ahead.

The Nifty FMCG Index has risen 1.5% so far in May, beating the benchmark NSE Nifty 50 Index by more than two percentage points. It underperformed in each of the previous six months.

“The market is expecting a bounce back in rural demand from a good monsoon,” said Sahil Kapoor, a strategist at DSP Mutual Fund in Mumbai. If predictions of an above-average monsoon this year pan out, it will help agricultural output and support rural income, he said.

A recovery in rural stocks is also welcome news for India’s broader stock market whose stellar rally in recent years was disproportionately spurred by investment-heavy firms benefiting from the government’s higher infrastructure spending. Further, bountiful showers can aid the central bank’s efforts to cool inflation by curbing gains in food prices, thereby improving prospects for India’s economic growth and corporate earnings.

Hindustan Unilever Ltd. – seen as a bellwether for consumer appetite in India as its products are sold in every part of the country – has said it sees demand gradually improving. Rival Dabur India Ltd. has echoed the same sentiment, while motorcycle maker Hero MotoCorp Ltd. has said it sees most of its new vehicle inquiries now coming from rural areas.

“We think rural economy is starting to come back,” said Rajeev Agrawal, a fund manager at New-York based DoorDarshi India Fund. “This is reflected in strong two-wheeler sales.”

Sales of motorcycles and scooters in India rose 33% on year last month, according to data from the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations. More broadly, fast-moving consumer goods companies registered sales growth of 7.6% year-on-year in rural areas in the quarter ended March, according to Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.’s research that cites data from Nielsen. That’s the first time the measure outpaced urban growth in three years.

To be sure, there are question marks about the momentum and breadth of the rural sector’s demand recovery, given a low base for earnings comparison and the fact that some firms have seen volumes benefiting due to price cuts.

“This is still a hope trade,” said DSP Mutual Fund’s Kapoor. “There hasn’t been a meaningful recovery in earnings or sales volumes so far.”

To analysts at Morgan Stanley, cyclical businesses are still leading India’s growth and that should result in defensive sectors lagging. “We are still mid-way through this cycle for staples and expect them to continue to underperform and de-rate,” they wrote in a May 9 note.

Still, investors’ appetite for stocks tied to the rural sector has strengthened amid growing signs that India’s investment-propelled growth may be losing steam.

Shares of Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., which makes farm equipment such as tractors, are up about 17% this month, the top performers on a gauge of 16 Indian automakers. The stock surged 6% on Friday to a record after better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, with some analysts citing likely improvement in tractor sales ahead driven by expectation of normal monsoons.

Hero MotoCorp’s shares are up 12% so far this month.

The sharp drop in machinery imports in the January-March quarter was one of the early indications of capital expenditure weakness, Prateek Parekh and Priyanka Shah, analysts at Nuvama Institutional Equities, wrote in a note. Valuations of both consumer goods and capex-heavy firms have converged, and that is also one reason to pivot toward consumption themes, they added.

Watch | How climate change is affecting monsoon forecast and disaster management

From delayed onsets marked by intense dry spells, to devastating flash floods and destructive landslides, the monsoon in recent years has been a period of uncertainty and destruction for India.

Although there are various factors behind it, there is a general consensus among scientists that climate change plays a major role.

The Southwest monsoon that brings rain to the subcontinent during June and July, happens due to the heating up of the Asian landmass in the northern hemisphere during the scorching summer and the relative cooling of the southern Indian ocean.

How is climate change affecting monsoon? What are the challenges in predicting monsoons? Experts explain.

Script and videos: Aswin VN

Production: Richard Kujur