After a shock defeat in France’s legislative elections, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) will double down on weeding out problematic candidates to counter successful efforts by mainstream parties to block the far right from power.

Polls had suggested the RN would secure the most seats in the snap two-round election, which French President Emmanuel Macron called after Ms. Le Pen’s party was the clear victor of June’s European parliamentary vote. Yet the RN ultimately placed third, with its hopes of forming France’s first far-right government since World War II thwarted by centrist and left-wing parties who withdrew about 200 third-placed candidates to unify the anti-RN vote. The strategy, known as the “republican front”, is a feature of French political life and has been used for decades to block the RN from power.

‘Casting errors that cost us dearly’

RN officials and lawmakers who spoke to Reuters believe the party can overcome this electoral barricade if it professionalises further, following a path laid out by Ms. Le Pen after she lost the 2017 presidential election to Macron. That means greater screening of potential candidates and tougher party discipline to avoid costly gaffes, they said.

In the run-up to the vote, media reports unveiled an RN candidate who had been photographed in a Nazi cap and another who sought to defend against the party’s history of racism and antisemitism by saying she had a Jewish eye doctor and Muslim dentist. After the vote, a newly elected RN lawmaker was ejected from the party’s parliamentary group for saying French Arabs had no place in government.

“We have to avoid these casting errors that cost us dearly and clearly hurt us,” said Julien Masson, an RN official in Brittany.

Heads have already begun to roll, with Gilles Pennelle, a member of the European Parliament, stepping down from his role as the RN executive in charge of overseeing candidate lists. “He was blamed for the candidates who were not good, who were not up to the level,” Mr. Masson said. Mr. Pennelle did not respond to requests for comment.

Two RN lawmakers told Reuters there would be more media training to avoid a repeat of embarrassing interviews in which candidates appeared amateurish. RN lawmaker Jean-Philippe Tanguy said the party was judged by an unfair standard, but acknowledged it needed to do better. “You always have to improve,” he told Reuters, adding that Ms. Le Pen’s 28-year-old protege Jordan Bardella would soon announce proposals to address “organisational problems.”

Le Pen’s popularity

Christophe Gervasi, who conducts private polling for the RN, said that as well as inexperienced and ill-disciplined recruits, the party’s tendency to be vague and inconsistent on policy proposals had dented its credibility. The party pledges to cut immigration, reduce fuel costs and be tougher on crime, common themes among populist far-right parties, but has dropped previous positions questioning EU and NATO membership.

Mr. Gervasi said it would be no easy task for the RN to overcome the republican front. “There are endemic structural weaknesses that persist,” he said. “The system is defending itself against the RN’s accession to power.”

Patrick Weil, a historian of the far right, said he doubted that an RN deep-clean would be enough for it to bulldoze the republican front. Much would depend on how the future government pans out and who stands in the 2027 election, in which Ms. Le Pen is likely to make her fourth attempt at the presidency. “If someone popular runs, Marine le Pen will be beaten. If someone very unpopular runs, she will be elected,” he said.

Adélaïde Zulfikarpasic, of BVA Xsight pollsters, said the surprising solidity of the republican front, which many had predicted to crumble in this election, underlined lingering discomfort with the far right. “The RN is undoubtedly still a little scary,” she said. “Its demonisation is not over.”

The tide is rising, says Le Pen

Sunday’s result was not a complete disaster for the RN, which nearly doubled its seats in the National Assembly. The party scooped up nearly a third of the popular vote, a record high for the RN in parliamentary elections.

The party can now watch from the opposition benches as centrist and leftist parties with no tradition of coalition-building guide France through a period of political instability. That could benefit the RN ahead of a 2027 election. “The tide is rising, but it has not risen high enough this time,” Ms. Le Pen said on Sunday. “Our victory is only delayed.”

The day after the vote, Bardella acknowledged the party had made mistakes, including on the choice of some of its candidates, but said the seeds of victory had been sown.

Towns like Nangis, located about 75 k.m. southeast of Paris in the Brie agricultural plain, provide hope for the RN. The constituency was in the hands of the mainstream, conservative right for 66 years until the RN finally wrested it away.

Isabelle Martin, a 52-year-old administrative worker, was among locals who voted for the RN. She was disappointed mainstream parties combined to stop the RN from winning power at the national level, an arrangement she described as “les magouilles”, or dirty deals. But she predicted the resulting political chaos would benefit the RN.

“The others have three years to prove that they can do something good,” Ms. Martin said. “If they haven’t pulled it off by 2027 then maybe (the RN) have a chance.”

Voters wait to enter a polling station at the Petit Poucet nursery school in the Vallee du Tir district of Noumea, in the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia, during the second round of France’s legislative elections on July 7, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Voting has begun in France on July 7 in pivotal runoff elections that could hand a historic victory to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally and its inward-looking, anti-immigrant vision — or produce a hung parliament and years of political deadlock.

French President Emmanuel Macron took a huge gamble in dissolving parliament and calling for the elections after his centrists were trounced in European elections on June 9.

The snap elections in this nuclear-armed nation will influence the war in Ukraine, global diplomacy and Europe’s economic stability, and they’re almost certain to undercut President Emmanuel Macron for the remaining three years of his presidency.

The first round on June 30 saw the largest gains ever for the anti-immigration, nationalist National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen.

Sunday’s vote determines which party controls the National Assembly and who will be prime minister. If support is further eroded for Macron’s weak centrist majority, he will be forced to share power with parties opposed to most of his pro-business, pro-European Union policies.

Racism and antisemitism have marred the electoral campaign, along with Russian cybercampaigns, and more than 50 candidates reported being physically attacked — highly unusual for France. The government is deploying 30,000 police on voting day.

The heightened tensions come while France is celebrating a very special summer: Paris is about to host exceptionally ambitious Olympic Games, the national soccer team reached the semifinal of the Euro 2024 championship, and the Tour de France is racing around the country alongside the Olympic torch.

Meanwhile, 49 million voters are in the midst of the country’s most important elections in decades.

France could have its first far-right government since the Nazi occupation in World War II if the National Rally wins an absolute majority and its 28-year-old leader Jordan Bardella becomes prime minister. The party came out on top in the previous week’s first-round voting, followed by a coalition of center-left, hard-left and Green parties, and Macron’s centrist alliance.

The outcome remains highly uncertain. Polls between the two rounds suggest that the National Rally may win the most seats in the 577-seat National Assembly but fall short of the 289 seats needed for a majority. That would still make history, if a party with historic links to xenophobia and downplaying the Holocaust, and long seen as a pariah, becomes France’s biggest political force.

If it wins the majority, Macron would be forced to share power in an awkward arrangement known in France as “cohabitation.”

Another possibility is that no party has a majority, resulting in a hung parliament. That could prompt Macron to pursue coalition negotiations with the center-left or name a technocratic government with no political affiliations.

Both would be unprecedented for modern France, and make it more difficult for the European Union’s No. 2 economy to make bold decisions on arming Ukraine, reforming labor laws or reducing its huge deficit. Financial markets have been jittery since Macron surprised even his closest allies in June by announcing snap elections after the National Rally won the most seats for France in European Parliament elections.

Many French voters, especially in small towns and rural areas, are frustrated with low incomes and a Paris political leadership seen as elitist and unconcerned with workers’ day-to-day struggles. National Rally has connected with those voters, often by blaming immigration for France’s problems, and has built up broad and deep support over the past decade.

Le Pen has softened many of the party’s positions — she no longer calls for quitting NATO and the EU — to make it more electable. But the party’s core far-right values remain. It wants a referendum on whether being born in France is enough to merit citizenship, to curb rights of dual citizens, and give police more freedom to use weapons.

The second-round voting began Saturday in France’s overseas territories from the South Pacific to the Caribbean, Indian Ocean and North Atlantic. The elections wrap up Sunday at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT) in mainland France. Initial polling projections are expected Sunday night, with early official results expected late Sunday and early Monday.

Regardless of what happens, Macron said he won’t step down and will stay president until his term ends in 2027.

A woman enters a voting booth in to cast her vote in the French parliamentary elections. File
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

Voters in France’s overseas territories and living abroad started casting ballots on July 6 in parliamentary run-off elections that could hand an unprecedented victory to the nationalist far right.

Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration party National Rally came out on top of first-round voting last on June 30, followed by a coalition of centre-left, hard-left and Greens parties – and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance in a distant third.

The second-round voting began on July 6 off the Canadian coast in the North Atlantic territory of Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, and followed in French territories in the Caribbean, South Pacific and the Indian Ocean, along with French voters living abroad. The elections wrap up on July 7 in mainland France.

Initial polling projections are expected when the final voting stations close at 8 p.m. Paris time (1800 GMT), with early official results expected late on Sunday and early Monday.

Mr. Macron called the snap legislative vote after the National Rally won the most votes in France in the European Parliament elections last month.

The party, which blames immigration for many of France’s problems, has seen its support climb steadily over the past decade and is hoping to obtain an absolute majority in the second round. That would allow National Rally leader Jordan Bardella to become prime minister and form a government that would be at odds with Macron’s policies on Ukraine, police powers and other issues.

Pre-election polls suggest that the party may win the most seats in the National Assembly but fall short of an absolute majority of 289 seats. That could result in a hung parliament.

Mr. Macron has said he won’t step down and will stay president until his term ends in 2027, but is expected to be weakened regardless of the result.

A woman walks past poster reading “Vote” ahead of the second round of the legislative election, in Strasbourg, eastern France on July 4, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

France’s far-right National Rally (RN) party will likely fall short of an absolute majority in forthcoming parliamentary elections, OpinionWay said in a poll for business daily Les Echos published on July 5.

The poll saw RN win 205-230 seats in Sunday’s vote, ahead of the leftwing New Popular Front with 145-175 seats, and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist bloc with 130-162 seats.

For a ruling majority, 289 seats are needed in the National Assembly.