Homes are surrounded by floodwaters in Sohbat Pur city, a district of Pakistan’s southwestern Baluchistan province
| Photo Credit: Zahid Hussain

Disaster events are not only becoming more frequent and severe but their impact is also expected to worsen. The year 2023 brought an end to the warmest decade on record, marked by unprecedented extreme weather events and large-scale disasters. These catastrophes were worsened by ongoing conflicts and the COVID-19 pandemic.

A report by the Food and Agriculture Organization titled ‘The Impact of Disaster on Agriculture and Food Security’ found that the frequency of extreme disaster events has risen significantly over the past 50 years. The 1970s saw approximately 100 disaster events per year. In the last 20 years, that number went up to about 400, globally (Chart 1). 

Chart 1 | The chart shows the number of disasters by EM-DAT (the international disaster database) grouping and total economic losses in $ billion.

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According to the EM-DAT database of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, 2022 witnessed nearly 31,000 deaths and an estimated $223.8 billion in economic losses from disasters, affecting over 185 million people. 

Agricultural activities and livelihoods rely heavily on environmental conditions, natural resources, and ecosystems. Globally, the agriculture sector faces growing threats from hazards such as flooding, water scarcity, drought, diminishing agricultural yields, fisheries depletion, loss of biodiversity, and environmental degradation. For instance, in Pakistan, exceptional monsoon rainfalls in 2022 led to nearly $4 billion in damages to the agricultural sector. In the U.S., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimated over $21.4 billion in crop and rangeland losses in 2022, with drought and wildfires responsible for most of the crop losses.

Data from 88 Post-Disaster Needs Assessment surveys conducted from 2007 to 2022 in 60 countries indicated that agricultural losses constituted an average of 23% of the overall impact of disasters across all sectors. However, the available data are limited, primarily focusing on low-income countries and major extreme events. A comprehensive global estimate of economic losses across all sectors is unavailable.

PDNAs revealed that more than 65% of losses attributed to drought affected the agricultural sector, while floods, storms, cyclones, and volcanic activities each accounted for roughly 20% (Chart 2). 

Chart 2 | The chart shows the share of loss in agriculture by hazard type. 

However, data on loss and damage are not systematically collected or reported. To address this gap, the report used secondary data sources such as EM-DAT and FAOSTAT production data to quantify the impact of disasters on agriculture, with a specific focus on crop and livestock production. Findings indicated that estimated losses in these sub-sectors have been gradually increasing over the past three decades. 

The total loss from extreme events over the past 31 years amounted to approximately $3.8 trillion, averaging about $123 billion per year. 

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Losses across major crop and livestock product groups exhibited increasing trends (Chart 3). Over the past three decades, estimated losses in cereals averaged 69 million tonnes annually. Losses in fruits and vegetables, along with sugar crops, averaged 40 million tonnes each annually. Meats, dairy products, and eggs experienced an estimated loss of 16 million tonnes per year. 

Chart 3 | The chart shows the estimated loss in various product groups (in million tonnes) between 1991 and 2021.

The distribution of total losses across regions from 1991 to 2021 also reflected the geographic size of each region. Asia bore the largest share of economic losses (45%), while Africa, Europe, and the Americas displayed similar orders of magnitude. Oceania experienced the lowest total losses (Chart 4).

Chart 4 | The chart shows the distribution of the total estimated $3.8 trillion losses by region (1991-2021).

In absolute terms, high-income countries, lower-middle-income countries, and upper-middle-income countries reported higher losses, while low-income countries and Small Island Developing States experienced lower levels. However, when considering losses relative to agricultural value added, low-income countries suffered losses more than double those of upper-middle-income countries on average (Chart 5).

Chart 5 | The chart shows total agricultural losses as a share of agricultural GDP by country groups (1991-2021).

Source: FAO report titled “The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security 2023”

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FILE PHOTO: Police officers use a hose in effort to extinguish wildfires in Ogan Ilir regency, South Sumatra province, Indonesia, September 20, 2023, in this photo taken by Antara Foto.
| Photo Credit: Antara Foto/Nova Wahyudi

As the world gears up for COP28, there is alarming data on the horizon. The year 2023 is on course to possibly becoming the warmest year in recorded history, with temperatures nearing 1.4°C above the pre-industrial era average.

In September 2023, global temperatures reached a record high. The average surface air temperature was 16.38°C, which is 0.93°C higher than the September average between 1991 and 2020. Moreover, it was 0.5°C warmer than the earlier record set in September 2020.

Chart 1 | The chart shows the globally averaged surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1991–2020 for each September from 1940 to 2023.

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The month of September 2023 was approximately 1.75°C above the average temperature of September during the 1850-1900 span, which is considered the pre-industrial benchmark.

From January to September 2023, the global surface air temperature was 0.52°C above the 1991-2020 average and 0.05°C higher than the same period in 2016, the warmest year. During this time frame in 2023, the world’s average temperature was 1.40°C higher than the baseline period of 1850-1900.

According to the Copernicus Climate Bulletin, in September 2023, the majority of Europe experienced temperatures significantly higher than the average from 1991 to 2020. A region stretching from France to Finland and extending to north-western Russia reported its hottest September ever. Notably, both Belgium and the U.K. faced unparalleled heatwave conditions at the start of the month.

Chart 2 | The chart shows the average global surface air temperatures for the 30 warmest months between 1940 and 2023, arranged in ascending order. The temperatures for June, July, August, and September of 2023 are highlighted.

The hottest-ever September of 2023 followed the warmest-ever two months on record — July and August 2023 — when the global mean temperature reached monthly records of 16.95°C and 16.82, respectively. The notable increase in these two months, especially compared to the July 2019 record of 16.63°C, is evident in Chart 2. Moreover, September 2023 is the sole September represented in this chart. The warmest September before 2023 recorded an average surface air temperature 15.88°C, which is not high enough to be included in chart 2.

Chart 3 | The chart shows the global daily surface air temperature (°C) from January 1, 1940 to September 30, 2023, plotted as a time series for each year. The line for 2023 is highlighted.

Other years are marked in grey. The thick black line represents the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels. For more than 80 days in 2023, the global temperature was at least 1.5° higher than pre-industrial levels. The year 2023 holds the record for the highest number of such days.

In a worrying update, the extent of sea ice has stayed at very low levels for this time of the year in the Antarctic region. Sea ice extent refers to the total area of an ocean where there is at least some sea ice present. Satellite records for September reveal that both daily and monthly extents have plummeted to their lowest annual peaks, with the monthly extent dropping 9% below the norm.

Chart 4 | The chart shows the daily Antarctic sea ice extent from 1979 to September 2023. The year 2023 is highlighted; the median for 1991–2020 is shown as a dotted line.

Meanwhile, the monthly average Arctic sea ice extent in September 2023 reached its annual minimum of 4.8 million km2, about 1.1 million km2 (or 18%) below the 1991-2020 average for September. This value is the fifth lowest in the satellite data record.

Source: European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service

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An aerial view shows the destruction, in the aftermath of the floods in Derna, Libya September 16, 2023. REUTERS/Ayman Al-sahili TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
| Photo Credit: AYMAN AL-SAHILI

Storm Daniel makes landfall

On September 10, a Mediterranean storm made landfall near the Benghazi city in northeast Libya. It brought record-breaking rainfall to the country. Between September 9 and 11, more than 100 mm rainfall was recorded. The Al Bayda station near the coast saw 414 mm of rainfall, the highest ever recorded in 24 hours. Usually, the region receives just around 1.5 mm of rain for the whole of September.

Nine areas were affected by the storm, and seven were severely affected. Derna city was among the areas severely affected. However, rainfall alone did not cause the destruction in the city.

Dams near Derna collapse

As the storm brought record-breaking rainfall, Al-Wadia dam to the south of the city collapsed. Following this, water rushed down the Wadia valley for around 12 kilometres before reaching the second dam closer to Derna city.

The second dam, too, collapsed under the force of the fast-moving water. With this, the water surged into Derna. The floodwaters destroyed entire blocks. and five bridges along its path.

Estimated deaths have crossed 11,000. More than 38,000 people have been displaced. Around 2,176 structures have been damaged in Derna alone.

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The problem of altitude

Derna’s low-lying terrain made it more vulnerable to flooding. The elevation near the first dam is around 200 m, gradually dropping to around 45 m near the second dam. At Derna’s coastline, elevation is around just 10 m. Combined with this, the Wadi valley acted as an effective conduit in channelling the floodwaters straight into the city.