The world’s nuclear-armed countries continue to modernise their nuclear arsenal. File
| Photo Credit: AP

The world’s nine nuclear-armed countries continue to modernise their nuclear weapons as they deepened their reliance on such deterrence in 2023, a Swedish think tank said on June 17.

“We have not seen nuclear weapons playing such a prominent role in international relations since the Cold War,” said Wilfred Wan, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s weapons of mass destruction programme.

Earlier this month, Russia and its ally Belarus launched a second stage of drills intended to train their troops in tactical nuclear weapons, part of the Kremlin’s efforts to discourage the West from ramping up support for Ukraine.

USA, China are top spenders

In a separate report, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, ICAN, said the nine nuclear-armed states spent a combined total of $91.4 billion on their arsenals in 2023 – equivalent to $2,898 per second. The Geneva-based coalition of disarmament activists won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2017.

The group said that figures show a $10.7 billion increase in global spending on nuclear weapons in 2023 compared to 2022, with the United States accounting for 80% of that increase. The U.S.’ share of total spending — $51.5 billion — is more than all the other nuclear-armed countries put together.

“There has been a notable upward trend in the amount of money devoted to developing these most inhumane and destructive of weapons over the past five years,” said Alicia Sanders-Zakre, Policy and Research Coordinator with ICAN.

The next biggest spender was China at $11.8 billion, she said, with Russia spending the third largest amount at $8.3 billion. “All this money is not improving global security, in fact it’s threatening people wherever they live,” Ms. Sanders-Zakre said.

Russia, U.S. together account for 90% of all nuclear weapons, says SIPRI

SIPRI estimated that some 2,100 of the deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles, and nearly all belonged to Russia or the USA. However, it said that China is also believed to have some warheads on high operational alert for the first time.

“Regrettably we continue to see year-on-year increases in the number of operational nuclear warheads,” said Dan Smith, SIPRI’s director. He added that the trend will likely accelerate in the coming years “and is extremely concerning”.

Russia and the U.S. have together almost 90% of all nuclear weapons, SIPRI said. The sizes of their military stockpiles seem to have remained relatively stable in 2023, although Russia is estimated to have deployed around 36 more warheads with operational forces than in January 2023, the watchdog added.

In its SIPRI Yearbook 2024, the institute said that transparency regarding nuclear forces has declined in both countries in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and debates around nuclear-sharing arrangements have increased in importance.

Washington suspended its bilateral strategic stability dialogue with Russia, and last year Moscow announced that it was suspending its participation in t he New START nuclear treaty.

Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12,121 warheads in January, about 9,585 were in military stockpiles for potential use. An estimated 3,904 of those warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft — which is 60 more than in January 2023 — and the rest were in central storage.

In Asia, India, Pakistan and North Korea are all pursuing the capability to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles, the institute said. The United States, Russia, France, UK and China already have that capacity, enabling a rapid potential increase in deployed warheads, as well as the possibility for nuclear-armed countries to threaten the destruction of significantly more targets.

SIPRI stressed that all estimates were approximate, and the institute revises its world nuclear forces data each year based on new information and updates to earlier assessments.

Stockholm:

The role of atomic weapons has become more prominent and nuclear states are modernising arsenals as geopolitical relations deteriorate, researchers said Monday, urging world leaders to “step back and reflect”.

Diplomatic efforts to control nuclear arms also suffered major setbacks amid strained international relations over the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said in its annual yearbook.

“We have not seen nuclear weapons playing such a prominent role in international relations since the Cold War,” Wilfred Wan, director of SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, said in a statement.

The research institute noted that in February 2023 Russia announced it was suspending participation in the 2010 New START treaty — “the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty limiting Russian and US strategic nuclear forces”.

SIPRI also noted that Russia carried out tactical nuclear weapon drills close to the Ukrainian border in May.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has upped his nuclear rhetoric since the Ukraine conflict began, warning in his address to the nation in February there was a “real” risk of nuclear war.

In addition, an informal agreement between the United States and Iran reached in June 2023 was upended after the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October, SIPRI said.

– ‘Extremely concerning’ –

According to SIPRI, the world’s nine nuclear-armed states also “continued to modernise their nuclear arsenals and several deployed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2023”.

The nine countries are the United States, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel.

In January, of the estimated 12,121 nuclear warheads around the world about 9,585 were in stockpiles for potential use, according to SIPRI.

Around 2,100 were kept in a state of “high operational alert” on ballistic missiles.

Nearly all of these warheads belong to Russia and the United States — which together possess almost 90 percent of all nuclear weapons — but China was for the first time believed to have some warheads on high operational alert.

“While the global total of nuclear warheads continues to fall as Cold War-era weapons are gradually dismantled, regrettably we continue to see year-on-year increases in the number of operational nuclear warheads,” SIPRI director Dan Smith said.

He added that this trend would likely continue and “probably accelerate” in the coming years, describing it as “extremely concerning.”

Researchers also stressed the “continuing deterioration of global security over the past year”, as the impact from the wars in Ukraine and Gaza could be seen in “almost every aspect” of issues relating to armaments and international security.

“We are now in one of the most dangerous periods in human history,” Smith said, urging the world’s great powers to “step back and reflect. Preferably together.”

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Pakistan does not follow the “no first use” policy on nuclear weapons and the country’s deterrence capabilities can respond to all threats from the enemy, a former senior military officer has said, as he clarified Islamabad’s stance on the use of atomic weapons.

Lt. Gen. (retd.) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, Adviser to the National Command Authority, was speaking at a seminar held at the Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS) on May 29 to commemorate Youm-e-Takbeer, the 26th anniversary of Pakistan’s nuclear tests in 1998.

Also read: The spectre of nuclear conflict, once again

The Dawn newspaper reported that Mr. Kidwai, who has served as the director general of the Strategic Plans Division (SPD), said: “Pakistan does not have a No First Use policy, and I’ll repeat that for emphasis. Pakistan does not have a No First Use policy.” The NFU refers to a country’s stance and is regarded as an assurance that its nuclear arsenal is meant for deterrence, not fighting a nuclear war.

Islamabad has traditionally maintained ambiguity regarding its NFU policy.

“The Indian gung-ho leadership may like to think about it there should never ever be a doubt in anyone’s mind, friend or foe, that Pakistan’s operationally ready nuclear capability enables every Pakistani leader the liberty, the dignity and the courage to look straight into the Indian eye and never blink,” Mr. Kidwai said.

Mr. Kidwai said the full spectrum deterrence capabilities available to the Pakistani military were the combination of the conventional and most modern technology-based weapons capable of responding to all threats from the enemy, state-run Associated Press of Pakistan (APP) news agency reported.

He added that the full spectrum deterrence helped in restoring the strategic balance of power that enforced peace in the region.

“In the past few decades, the robust nuclear capability of Pakistan has enforced peace in the region,” APP quoted Mr. Kidwai as saying.

Pakistan conducted six nuclear tests on May 28, 1998, inside a deeply dug tunnel in the remote Chaghi mountain of Balochistan province, as a tit-for-tat response to India’s nuclear tests in the same month at the Indian Army’s Pokhran Test Range.

Lt. Gen. (retd.) Kidwai also hinted at using emerging technologies to strengthen the country’s nuclear programme.

“Advancements in technology including what is referred to as emerging technologies will continue to make their way appropriately in Pakistan’s National Security calculus, and the nuclear programme will be stronger by benefiting from these,” he said.

He noted that Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD) capability, while generally remaining within the larger philosophy of Credible Minimum Deterrence (CMD), comprises horizontally of a robust tri-services inventory of a variety of nuclear weapons.

He said that the nuclear weapons were held on land with the Army Strategic Force Command (ASFC), at sea with the Naval Strategic Force Command (NSFC), and in the air with the Air Force Strategic Force Command (AFSC). Vertically, the nuclear spectrum encapsulates progressively increasing destructive weapon yields, and range coverage at three: strategic, operational, and tactical to 2,750 km to cover India’s vast Eastern and Southern geographical dimensions, including its outlying territories.

Lt. Gen. (retd.) Kidwai further stated that India’s Dynamic Response Strategy (DRS) is a clear reflection of the limits and constraints imposed by Pakistan’s robust nuclear capability on India’s strategic and operational options, and therefore, Pakistan’s strategic weapons, especially the Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs), are “weapons of peace”.

Director General of the Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs (ACDA) branch of the SPD, retired Brig Zahir Kazmi, highlighted some of the emerging threats and enduring threats to Pakistan’s nuclear programme.