The story so far: On July 15, Rwanda held its fourth presidential election since the 1994 Tutsi genocide. Partial results released by Rwanda’s National Electoral Commission (NEC) reveal overwhelming support for President Paul Kagame. With 79% of the votes counted, Kagame has secured over 99% of the votes. Opposition leaders Habineza Frank of the Democratic Green Party and Independent candidate Mpayimana Phillippe secured less than one per cent of the votes each.

How did Rwanda politically progress?

On 6 April, 1994, Rwanda’s Hutu President Juvenal Habyarimana was killed in a plane crash, allegedly by the Tutsi-led armed group, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF). Between April 7 and July 15, 1994, the state-sponsored Hutu armed group massacred over 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus in revenge attacks.

In 1994, the RPF defeated Rwanda’s government, ended the genocide and restored law and order. The RPF took control of Rwanda and established a transitional government of both Hutus and Tutsis, which ruled from 1994 to 1995. Between 1996 and 2002, Rwanda’s leadership was preoccupied with fighting Hutu armed groups in the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and could not prioritise nation building.

In 2003, Rwanda adopted a new Constitution and became a semi-presidential republic. The same year, multi-party elections were held for the first time. Kagame was elected as Rwanda’s President. Under his leadership, the RPF rapidly consolidated power, winning landslide majorities since 2003. In 2015, the government amended the constitution through a referendum, enabling Kagame to rule till 2034 and strengthening the RPF’s dominance.

What has been the role of Kagame?

A U.S.-trained military officer of Tutsi ethnicity, Kagame joined the RPF in 1990. As the RPF’s leader, Kagame led the armed group to end the genocide. Between 1994 and 2000, he was Rwanda’s de facto leader, first as Vice President and then as Acting President.

According to Rwanda’s Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, the economy grew by over eight per cent annually under Kagame’s leadership. Between 2000 and 2017, his targeted social welfare schemes lifted over one million people out of poverty, while life expectancy rose from 29 to 67 years. However, Western observers criticised his government as authoritarian for suppressing opposition forces and civil liberties. In 2024, Freedom House accused his government of surveillance, torture, arbitrary detentions, and assassinations of dissents.

What were the issues before Rwanda’s July 2024 elections?

According to the South African Broadcasting Corporation and Al Jazeera, Rwanda’s impressive development record under Kagame was crucial in the 2024 elections, attracting young and first-time voters to the RPF. During his massive rallies, Kagame promised to continue Rwanda’s economic performance and equitable growth, which resonated with the youth’s aspirations for upward mobility.

Women’s empowerment was another vital election issue, with women voters appreciating Kagame’s role in increasing women’s representation in the country’s legislative assembly, the Chamber of Deputies (60% in 2023) and their participation in the labour force (55% in 2023 according to the World Bank).

Civil society organisations raised concerns about political pluralism before the elections. During May-June, the National Election Commission barred opposition leaders and outspoken Kagame critics Victoire Ingabire and Diane Rwigara from contesting for sowing “divisionism” and inadequate paperwork. According to Reporters Without Borders (RSF), the government imprisoned around 20 journalists since 2000 on unlawful grounds. These developments reflected the country’s declining democratic credentials. Since Kagame held the elections after banning multiple opposition groups, civil society organisations said the election was unfair because voters did not have a genuine choice of alternative candidates. The ongoing civil war in the DRC was another pressing issue, with the DRC and the United Nations accusing Rwanda of supporting the M23 armed group.

What do the election results convey?

Kagame’s victory conveys wide-ranging support for his programmes of economic progress and political stability. Given that Rwanda is still a developing country, Kagame’s campaign resonated with the electorate’s aspirations for economic freedom and reaffirmed his successful record of providing the stability needed for development.

Kagame’s victory demonstrates the effectiveness of his party machinery, with opposition candidates struggling to draw crowds. However, Kagame was virtually unchallenged, with opposition candidates receiving one per cent of votes combined, reflecting the RPF’s efforts to suppress genuine political competition. The suppression of the candidates also reflected Kagame’s authoritarian tendencies. The pro-government decisions of the National Election Commission reflected the absence of robust democratic institutions.

Does the Rwanda election hold any significance for Africa’s democratic process?

South Africa, Senegal, Chad, and Rwanda have completed their general elections, others are heading to the polls. While South Africa and Senegal had free and fair elections, polls in Chad and Rwanda saw incumbents controlling opposition forces.

While Rwanda enjoys an impressive developmental record, its authoritarian tendencies and democratic deficits reflect the larger African trends of democratic backsliding and electoral malpractices. Since the RPF was initially an armed group that became the country’s ruling party, its political dominance reflects the persistent issue of militarisation of civilian politics that affects African states like Gabon and Guinea. Kagame’s victory will mark continued political stability, but its military involvement in the DRC will contribute to regional instability.

(Ayan Datta is a research intern at the Africa Studies programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies and is pursuing a post-graduate degree at the University of Hyderabad)

Rwandan President Paul Kagame was gearing up on July 16 for a fourth term after winning a thundering 99.15% of votes according to partial results from an election where only two challengers were allowed to run against him.

The outcome of the July 15 poll was never in doubt, with Mr. Kagame ruling the small African nation with an iron fist as de facto leader then president for three decades.

Partial results issued by the election commission seven hours after polls closed showed that Mr. Kagame had won 99.15% of the vote — even more than the 98.79% he got in the last poll seven years ago.

Democratic Green Party candidate Frank Habineza could only muster 0.53% and independent Philippe Mpayimana 0.32%, according to the results issued with 79% of ballots counted.

In an address from the headquarters of his ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), the 66-year-old thanked Rwandans for giving him another five years in office.

“The results that have been presented indicate a very high score, these are not just figures, even if it was 100 percent, these are not just numbers,” he said.

“These figures show the trust, and that is what is most important,” he added.

“I am hopeful that together we can solve all problems.”

‘Safe and transparent’

With 65% of the population aged under 30, Mr. Kagame is the only leader most Rwandans have ever known.

The bespectacled 66-year-old is credited with rebuilding a traumatised nation after the 1994 genocide — but he is also accused of ruling in a climate of fear at home, and fomenting instability in the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo.

Over nine million Rwandans — including two million first-time voters — were registered to cast their ballot, with the presidential race being held simultaneously as legislative elections for the first time.

In Kigali’s Nyabugogo market, shoppers were upbeat and unsurprised by the result.

“The reason he gets such high votes, which should be 100 percent, is because Rwandans love him,” pensioner Frederick Bayingana told AFP, listing Kagame’s accomplishments in providing “development”, “drinking water” and “security”.

“Today is a day for celebrations because this is the result I wanted,” motorcycle taxi driver Thomas Dushimirimana, 38, told AFP.

Full provisional results are due by July 20 and definitive results by July 27.

“In general, the electoral process happened in a safe and transparent atmosphere for Rwandans living abroad and at home,” the National Electoral Commission said.

Mr. Kagame won with more than 93% of the vote in 2003, 2010 and in 2017, when he again easily defeated the same two challengers.

He has overseen controversial constitutional amendments that shortened presidential terms from seven to five years but reset the clock for the Rwandan leader, allowing him to potentially rule until 2034.

‘Severe restrictions’

Rwandan courts had rejected appeals from prominent opposition figures Bernard Ntaganda and Victoire Ingabire to remove previous convictions that effectively disqualified them from the July 15 vote.

The election commission also barred high-profile Kagame critic Diane Rwigara, citing issues with her paperwork — the second time she was excluded from running.

Ahead of the vote, Amnesty International said Rwanda’s political opposition faced “severe restrictions… as well as threats, arbitrary detention, prosecution, trumped-up charges, killings and enforced disappearances”.

The imbalance between the candidates was evident during the three-week campaign, as the RPF’s well-oiled PR machine swung into high gear.

His rivals struggled to make their voices heard, with barely 100 people showing up to some events.

Mr. Kagame’s RPF militia is lauded for its role in ending the 1994 genocide — ousting the Hutu extremists who had unleashed 100 days of bloodletting targeting the Tutsi minority.

The perpetrators killed around 800,000 people, mainly Tutsis but also Hutu moderates.

Rwanda’s GDP has grown by an average of 7.2% per year between 2012 and 2022, although the World Bank says almost half the population lives on less than $2.15 a day.

Abroad, Kigali is accused of meddling in the troubled eastern DRC, where a U.N. report says its troops are fighting alongside M23 rebels.

In the parliamentary election, 589 candidates were chasing 80 seats, including 53 elected by universal suffrage.

In the outgoing assembly, the RPF held 40 seats and its allies 11, while Habineza’s party had two.

Another 27 spots are reserved for women, the youth and people with disabilities.

A voter casts her ballot at a polling station in Kigali during Rwanda’s presidential and parliamentary polls.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Millions of Rwandans were voting in presidential and parliamentary elections on July 15, with the African nation’s leader Paul Kagame widely expected to cruise to victory and extend his iron-fisted rule for another five years.

Rwanda’s de facto leader since the end of the 1994 genocide and President since 2000, Mr. Kagame faces only two challengers after several prominent critics were barred from standing.

University student Gatangaza Bwiza Nelly, among two million first-time voters, said she had “been waiting for this day anxiously.” “I believe that the results will be the same as the results in the previous election. It is quite obvious,” the 21-year-old said.

The lineup is a carbon copy of the last election in 2017, when Mr. Kagame obliterated his rivals with almost 99% of the vote, and there is little doubt about the outcome this year.

Frank Habineza, leader of the Democratic Green Party, and independent Philippe Mpayimana were the only two candidates approved to run against Mr. Kagame out of eight applicants.

With 65% of the population aged under 30, Mr. Kagame — who is running for a fourth term — is the only leader most Rwandans have ever known. The 66-year-old is credited with rebuilding a traumatised nation after Hutu extremists unleashed a genocide targeting Tutsis.

More than nine million Rwandans are registered to cast their ballot across 2,433 polling stations, with the presidential race being held at the same time as legislative elections for the first time.