The high unemployment rate in the Bharatiya Janta Party-ruled Haryana reflected even in Union government surveys, has been a major weapon in the hands of the Opposition to attack the State government, and more so as the State goes to the polls in a few weeks from now.

But the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation for the January-March quarter in FY24, shows that the unemployment rate among those above 15 years of age as per current weekly status in urban areas has more than halved to 4.1% from 8.8% since the corresponding quarter the year before, dropping below the national average of 6.7%.

Sharp contrast

This is in sharp contrast to the annual PLFS results for 2021-22 which showed that Haryana with an unemployment rate of 9% – more than double the national rate of 4.1%, had fared poorly compared to its neighbours including Uttar Pradesh (2.9%), Himachal Pradesh (4.0%), Rajasthan (4.7%) and Punjab (6.4%).

Attributing the high unemployment rate in FY22 in the State to the global post-Covid economic slowdown in sectors such as hospitality and civil aviation, Chief Principal Secretary to the Chief Minister, Rajesh Khullar told The Hindu that job creation, both in the public and private sector, had been the Government’s top priority. He said the government was on a “job offering spree” in the past few months to fill government posts.

“Around 30,000 regular government jobs, including in Group C and D, have been filled this year so far with Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini handing over appointment letters to 7,500 Trained Graduate Teachers on July 30. The government aims to give 50,000 regular jobs before the Assembly polls on October 5, but some of these appointments have been delayed as the Model Code of Conduct came into force on August 16.

‘Mission 60,000’

His predecessor Manohar Lal had in January announced “Mission 60,000” for youth employment for Below Poverty Line (BPL) families by engaging them as “Van Mitras”, “E-Sewa Mitras” and “Kisan Mitras” and imparting training to 10,000 youth to become contractors,” said Mr. Khullar.

Read: After furore over CMIE data, govt. figures show Haryana sliding on unemployment

The proposed manufacturing plants of Maruti Suzuki and Suzuki Motorcycle at Industrial Model Township at Kharkhoda in Sonipat district to be commissioned next year are likely to generate around 15,000 direct jobs, he said, adding these efforts by the government are getting reflected in the recent job survey reports.

Dismissing official job statistics as mere “jugglery of data”, Naveen Jaihind, president of Jai Hind Sena, a social organisation said not enough government jobs have been filled in the past few years. Protesting in a unique way against unemployment in the agrarian State, Mr. Jaihind, led a “Berozgaro Ki Baraat (Wedding Procession of Unemployed)” in Rohtak in January last year, to highlight the socio-economic implications of high unemployment among the youth.

Mr. Jaihind, who is also former Haryana AAP president, said the State’s skewed sex ratio, coupled with high unemployment rate had led to rising number of young men forced to remain single in rural Haryana pushing them into drug-addiction and crime. A resident of Rohtak’s Meham, Shankar Dayal Sharma, a Masters in Physiotherapy, said though every hospital and health care centre needs a physiotherapist, the government had advertised only eight vacancies a decade ago. Working part-time at a nearby clinic for a paltry ₹9,000 per month, Mr. Sharma, 30, said he was tired of waiting for a physiotherapist’s job and was ready work a Group-D job with the Government if opportunity arose. “A couple of relatives are teaching at private schools. They hold PhD degrees. Yet they are willing to work Group-D jobs because the government has failed to offer them jobs as per their qualifications,” Mr. Sharma said.

Two-time Congress Chief Minister and Opposition Leader, Bhupinder Singh Hooda, critical of the Government’s efforts in jobs creation said it is instead sending workers to warn-torn Israel. Mr. Khattar’s government facilitated 10,000 people to be recruited in Israel’s construction sector amid a labour shortage there. He said the Government has not filled more than two lakh posts across departments, and is instead recruiting non-Haryanvi residents to higher positions. 

‘Going abroad’

A Jind-based travel agent, seeking anonymity, spoke of a growing trend among youth from Haryana’s districts bordering Punjab emigrating legally or illegally for some years now, looking for better opportunities. “Government jobs still remain the top preference for the youth as they look for stability. But there have not been enough appointments in the past few years, more so under the present Government. The youth have begun going abroad. They are inspired by their friends who have gone abroad and who present a rosy picture of their lives on social media,” said the agent.

Also read:Eight crore new jobs in last three to four years: PM Modi

Former general-secretary, Manesar Industries Welfare Association, Manmohan Gaind, said there is huge demand for a skilled workforce. But the government’s programmes to impart skills had failed to produce the workforce with the desired skills. He said the government must incentivise industry to impart skills to the youth by bearing the entire expenses for their training. He also demanded that Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) be treated on par with the agriculture sector and be offered credit at 4-5% interest rate. “While the government may have to waive credit to farmers, MSMEs repay every single penny to the banks and also generate jobs. Though home loan is available at 8% interest rate, MSMEs borrow at 10-11% rate to buy a machine for their expansion,” complained Mr. Gaind, Chief Executive Officer, M. M. Creations, which makes couture clothing and home furnishings.

A poster of an immigration consulting agency in Rajpura town amid rising emigration in Punjab.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

Uncertain over securing a suitable job, Ranjandeep Singh, a 22-year-old bachelor of arts graduate in Punjab’s Malout town in Muktsar district has been for the past six months rigorously preparing to clear his language testing exams as he aspires and foresees ‘a better life’ abroad. His concern — similar to many youngsters in Punjab — is the want of suitable employment opportunities, and in the prevailing scenario migrating abroad is Mr. Singh’s topmost preference.

“I am preparing for IELTS (English language proficiency test) exam and shall appear next month. Once I clear it, I intend to go to Canada to study and find a job. I have lost hope of finding a suitable job here. By suitable, I mean a job in which I can live a dignified life. I completed my BA last year (2023). Later, I got a job as a security guard at a local private company in Malout. I was getting a meagre salary for the work, making it difficult for me to assist my family. Also, the long working hours took a toll on my health, after working for two months I left the job. I also worked in the sales wing of a local pesticide company, but with the scanty wages, making ends meet was tough. Finally, I decided to go abroad. I am preparing to go to Canada,” said Mr. Singh, who belongs to a family that owns a 4-5 acre farm land at village Karamgarh.

‘Protest march’

Close to 150 kilometres away from Malout, on July 28, in Sangrur — the hometown of Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann —  under the banner of ‘Punjab Berozgar Sanjha Morcha’ (Punjab Unemployed Joint Front), five outfits of youths, who have been for long seeking government jobs, were up in arms against the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) government in the State for its alleged apathy towards their demands. They staged a ‘protest march’ near the Chief Minister’s local residence in Sangrur, even as the protesters were stopped by the Police as they attempted to cross the barricades. Shouting anti-government slogans, the protesters blamed the AAP government for not paying any heed to the plight of “unemployed youth”.

41-year-old Raman Kumar, B.Ed (Bachelor of Education), who cleared his Punjab State Teacher Eligibility Test in 2018 is annoyed as his wait for a “secure government job” is still a distant dream. 

Sukhwinder Singh Dhilwan, who has been leading the struggle of these youngsters asserts that even though there are several posts vacant in departments such as health and education, the State government was not recruiting. “We are asking the government to fill up vacant posts of the master cadre of teachers in all subjects and grant age relaxation. Also, the vacant posts of multi-purpose health workers should be advertised and filled. The examination for art and craft teacher recruitment should be conducted among other demands,” he said.

According to the Periodic Labour Force Survey (January-March 2024) the unemployment rate in Punjab for the age group of 15 years and above (urban areas) stands at 6.8% among men and 10.9% among women. Punjab’s total unemployment rate is 7.7%, which is above the national unemployment rate of 6.7%.

Also read:On unemployment in Indian States

The matter of concern among a few economists, however, is the unemployment rate among the youth. As per the survey, the unemployment rate in Punjab in the age group of 15 and 29 years in urban areas is 17.4%, which includes 15% among men and 26% among women.

Pointing out that the quality of employment is quite bad in Punjab, noted economist Dr. Lakhwinder Singh, a visiting professor at the Institute for Human Development, New Delhi, says “80% of youth employed in Punjab is highly dissatisfied withtheir jobs. This is highest across Indian States. The generation of new but decent jobs will prevent them from going to greener pastures.”

“Given the structure and slow growth of the Punjab economy, the employment elasticity is low. Thus high unemployment is the natural outcome. To reduce unemployment, the Punjab government should invest to raise capital formation that will make the Punjab economy dynamic and generate higher GSDP growth and employment. Punjab is suffering from investment famine. Consequently, the digital revolution and the forth industrial revolution in technologies are bypassing Punjab. The State government should rise from this slumber and make investments in these areas that will attract young educated professionals to seek employment in these sectors. Private corporate investment can also be induced to invest in new activities where most of the youth aspire to work,” says Dr. Lakhwinder.

Rise in migration

The latest study by Ludhiana-based Punjab Agricultural University (PAU) has revealed that Punjab is witnessing a steady rise in migration. Punjab has witnessed a rise in emigration with approximately 13.34% of rural households having at least one member who has emigrated.

“Low income (72.81%), less employment opportunities (72.97%), and corruption (72.97%) were the main factors reported behind overseas migration as stated by migrants’ family,” points out the study. Meanwhile, the State government claims to have been working to improve the employment rate. 

Casual women workers — across both rural and urban sectors — saw a net increase in their average real monthly earnings
| Photo Credit: JOTHI RAMALINGAM. B

Recent data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) of 2022-23 revealed a strengthening of the labour market, with unemployment rates falling and labour force participation rates (LFPRs) rising. Rural women’s LFPRs — for those aged 15 and above — rose from 19.7% in 2018-19 to 41.5% in 2022-23, a significant jump for a cohort that had long been on the margins of the labour market. These results were taken as examples of a robust post-pandemic recovery for the Indian economy.

Yet there are notes of caution. Much of the new employment generated for women has been in self-employment. There has been a rise in the proportion of women working as unpaid family helpers, with the share of rural working women in this form of employment rising from 37.9% to 43% between 2018-19 and 2022-23. The share of women in regular wage work fell from 22% to 16%. Greater employment seemed to be coming at the cost of suitable working conditions, especially for women.

While concerns regarding the forms of work have been extensively discussed, the aspect of earnings must also be examined to better understand the condition of the Indian labour market. While wages and earnings have increased, inflation has been high as well. If inflation is higher than earnings growth, real earnings reduce, reducing purchasing power.

The status of earnings

Here we will examine the real earnings of the workforce between the quarters of April-June 2019 and April-June 2023, covering the period before the onset of the pandemic and the latest period for when data is available. The PLFS collects information on the earnings of regular wage workers, casual workers and the self-employed (regular wage workers have fixed work hours and are paid on a regular basis; casual workers are employed on a daily basis on the availability of work and receive daily wages). We look at the monthly wage earnings of regular wage workers, and the gross earnings of the previous month for the self-employed. For casual workers, average daily wages are converted to monthly figures. The average of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) across the months of April to June of 2019 and 2023 are taken to convert nominal figures into real terms. The earnings for urban and rural workers were deflated by the urban and rural CPI for those periods separately.

Between 2019 and 2023, only casual workers — both men and women, across both rural and urban sectors — saw a net increase in their average real monthly earnings. Women casual workers experienced a 13% increase across the entire period, while male casual workers enjoyed a 10.33% increase. The only other cohorts which saw an increase in real earnings in 2023 as compared to 2019 were women in regular wage work — a 4.27% increase — and male self-employed workers (6.9%). Significant inflation over this period ate away at the gains of workers, resulting in lesser real earnings for most workers in 2023 as compared to the pre-pandemic period.

There are significant differences between urban and rural sectors. Urban male self-employed workers saw a reduction in real earnings, while rural male self-employed workers saw real earnings increase by roughly 14.67% in 2023 compared to 2019. However, the figure for gross earnings of the self-employed do not include those who reported zero incomes, and hence these aggregate figures may not give a true picture of earnings for the entire population of the self-employed.

In the case of regular wage workers, urban women saw a reduction in earnings, with real incomes in 2023, 2.34% lesser than that in 2019. Rural women in regular wage employment earned the highest gains of all cohorts, their monthly real earnings 27.5% higher in the quarter of April-June 2023 as compared to April-June 2019. Yet this cohort makes up only 8% of the rural female workforce, and hence a smaller proportion of the aggregate workforce.

The impact of inflation

On the other hand, the biggest declines were seen in the one cohort that showed a significant rise in employment: rural women in self-employment. The share of the rural female workforce in paid forms of self-employment rose from 22% to 28% between 2018-19 and 2022-23, yet their average monthly real gross earnings reduced by 7.72%, the largest reduction for any cohort. Large numbers of rural women have entered low-paying, low-productive jobs, perhaps to supplement household incomes in the wake of the pandemic — this does not indicate robustness of recovery. Note that this excludes women engaged as helpers in household enterprises, who, by definition, do not earn any income, and who form the largest proportion of rural working women.

The moderation of inflation by 2023 saw a gradual rise in real incomes. Between 2022 to 2023, all cohorts — except, surprisingly, urban women casual workers — saw a rise in real earnings. Self-employed men enjoyed significant gains, with rural and urban men’s earnings rising by 9.27% and 8.9% respectively. Rural self-employed women saw real earnings gains of 2.14%, while their urban counterparts experienced a gain of 4.2%. Wage workers — both casual and regular — did not see extensive gains, with only rural women in regular wage employment experiencing a 35.5% growth in real earnings. Urban men and women in regular wage employment experienced gains of 1.42% and 2.66% respectively.

Conclusion

While it is too soon to tell whether these gains indicate the beginning of a sustained recovery, the fact that every cohort — barring rural casual women workers — saw an increase in real earnings marks a distinct break from earlier periods. However, there is another problem. Real GDP growth between 2022 to 2023 was measured at around 7.2%. Only three cohorts experienced earnings growth faster than this: urban and rural male self-employed, and rural women in regular wage employment (the latter forming a miniscule portion of the aggregate workforce). Wage workers as a whole have seen real earnings grow slower than output, indicating a reduction in the share of wages even though growth remains healthy. This serves as further evidence of the possibility of India experiencing a K-shaped recovery in the wake of the pandemic.

Rahul Menon is Associate Professor, Jindal School of Government and Public Policy, O.P. Jindal Global University