Tragedies like the Wayanad landslides repeat themselves partly because their lessons are not brought to bear on our understanding of the local amplifiers of extreme events. A view of a mountain of the Western Ghats in Wayanad, Kerala, November 15, 2022.
| Photo Credit: Nakkeeran Raveendran/Unsplash

At no place on the earth is the climate risk zero — yet when natural hazards strike, the resulting loss of lives, livelihoods, and assets sting. Disaster management and recovery play a crucial role in alleviating the pain. Unfortunately, however, a blame game may follow asking whether early warnings could have averted the tragedy.

Any early warning that may have been issued will always start with the weather forecast for the area where the hazard manifested. Proactively mitigating disasters instead of always managing them after they happen requires climate risk outlooks that go out to a decade or longer.

Further, post-facto analyses of deadly disasters — like the landslides in Wayanad, Kerala, on July 30 — often do not appreciate the fact that broad warnings of risks can hardly be translated to specific actions. For example, if we declare the entire Western Ghats to be vulnerable to landslides, governments can develop and enforce regulations to protect the whole range from deforestation, development, monoculture plantations, etc.

However, doing so will mitigate some landslides; it won’t get rid of extreme events induced by climate change anytime soon. Some landslides will occur anyway even if the Ghats enjoy the fullest protections from human perturbations because the risk is never zero.

Predictions for disaster management, mitigation

Similarly, the predictions of models will also always be imperfect. If we are to improve their ability to predict extreme events more accurately (in terms of their location and amplitude), we need to fully understand the effects of local drivers that could exacerbate the climate’s effects. After every extreme event, someone claims global warming is a contributor — yet the relationship between local events and global warming complicates the truth of such claims.

The drivers of climate extremes originate from a far-away place but are usually exacerbated by some regional, location-specific factors.

For instance, a 2015 study (which included this author) indicated that coastal sea surface temperatures have a strong influence on heavy rain along India’s west coast. Wayanad district lies about 80 km from this coast. Monsoon winds stream across the equator and continue to load up on moisture as they turn southwesterly and head towards the Western Ghats. As they approach the coast, the winds sense they will have to climb the Western Ghats and slow down. Slower winds reduce the evaporation over the coastal ocean and the coastal waters tend to warm up — and warm waters exert a strong control on the atmosphere and rainfall.

Such a warming is typically seen up to 10 days ahead of a heavy rain event over the coastal ocean. Global models typically miss such local, small-scale warming or cooling processes and tend to underestimate the amount of rain in an extreme event. Enhancing the coastal observations and assimilating them into forecast models is expected to improve predictions.

This is also why adopting location-specific measures like legal protections for biodiversity can help mitigate disasters. Governments can also bolster their regulatory strategies using predictions of the climate up to a decade in the future and combining each prediction with hyperlocal risks.

Similarly, national and local governments will have to work together and share monitoring, reporting, and verification responsibilities to mitigate risk. Finally, all these consequences of the relationship between global warming and local events will have to be accounted for in budgetary provisions. Otherwise, mitigating disasters may not be sustainable.

Further, predictions with a lead time of a few weeks could help disaster management personnel mobilise towards locales with the highest imminent risk and avoid surprises. This is where the location-specific drivers can help ensure the hyperlocal risk information is reliable in crisis times.

Coarse global to fine hyperlocal

Global models provide seasonal outlooks and predictions at the short (1-3 days), medium (3-10 days), and extended (2-4 weeks) ranges. They have been getting better at offering outlooks of the monsoon, the El Niño and La Niña events, and early extreme-event warnings. Researchers around the world — in academia and national laboratories — constantly diagnose imperfections in these models and remove them.

One particular approach to improving the models is called downscaling, especially to enhance predictions of extreme events like small-scale heavy rain. In downscaling, researchers use a global model to drive local predictions in a higher resolution regional model to capture the weather at scales that the global model will miss.

Of late, they have been executing such two-tier strategies using techniques in artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML). Their costs are lower than those incurred by running a high-resolution regional model. Such AI/ML approaches are also many times faster than regional models, further lending themselves to more effective disaster management.

Spotting location-specific amplifiers

Tragedies like that in Wayanad on July 30 tend to repeat themselves partly because their lessons are not always brought to bear on our understanding of the local amplifiers of extreme events. Simple changes in land use patterns — associated with urbanisation, say, or the deforestation of mountain slopes — could lead to a crushing cloudburst and or a punishing hailstorm.

The relatively more coarse resolutions of global models — which deal with changes in the tens of kilometres — tend to miss such local features and add to their imperfections. To acquire a better sense of the effects of these features and thus enable regional dynamic or AI/ML downscaling for hyperlocal predictions, we need more local data of weather and climate variables.

Disaster mitigation efforts are crucial to weather-proof the country and make it more climate-resilient at longer timescales. To this end we urgently need a data network that supports the mapping of local extreme event amplifiers.

Raghu Murtugudde is a professor, IIT Bombay, and emeritus professor, University of Maryland.

New Delhi:

 BJP leader V Muraleedharan hit out at the Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan-led Kerala government over the recent landslides in Wayanad that claimed the lives of over 160 people and said that state was paying the price of the state government’s ‘casual approach.’

This comes after Home Minister Amit Shah’s assertion in Parliament on Wednesday that the state was warned as early as July 23 about a potential natural calamity in Wayanad due to heavy rains.

Speaking to ANI on the Wayanad landslide incidents, BJP leader V Muraleedharan said, “Home Minister Amit Shah in the Rajya Sabha very specifically mentioned that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government stands with the people of Kerala like a rock and there can be no doubt about that.”

“Amit Shah also said that had the Kerala government worked with alertness when the NDRF battalions landed, that would have saved a lot. He said that he doesn’t want to blame anyone, but at the same time, he put the facts before the house, saying that on July 23, 24, 25 and 26 of July, the Ministry of Home Affairs issued warnings and asked the state government to be prepared and initiate the evacuation of people, but the Kerala government didn’t heed the warning messages.”

Adding further, he said, “Moreover, many agencies in the past have been alerted about the possibility of landslides in the area. In 2020, the Kerala disaster management authority warned that there was an impending tragedy and advised relocating 4,000 families,” said Mr Muraleedharan.

“The village of Mundakkai, which has now been affected by the landslide, was identified as one of the 18 landslide-prone places in the district disaster management plan. But the state government did not pay heed to it and now Kerala is paying the price because of the casual approach of the state government,” said Mr Muraleedharan.

“This area has been identified as an ecologically sensitive area. Despite that, there are more than 300 illegal construction projects in the area. No action has been taken to remove those,” he added.

Meanwhile, the disaster sparked a heated exchange of words among political leaders.

Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan refuted Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s assertion in Parliament on Wednesday that the state was warned as early as July 23 about a potential natural calamity in Wayanad due to heavy rains.

“This is not the time to blame each other. However, reports from the Rajya Sabha indicate that the Union Home Minister claimed they had issued a warning, and Kerala did not respond appropriately,” the Kerala Chief Minister said in a press conference.

Mr Vijayan stated that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had only issued an orange alert for the district prior to the landslides. However, Wayanad experienced over 500 millimetres of rainfall, far exceeding the IMD’s predictions.

After two massive landslides struck Wayanad, Kerala, on Tuesday morning, causing extensive destruction, rescue operations are being intensified, political leaders are engaged in discussions, and financial aid is being mobilised for the region.

The first landslide occurred in Mundakkai, a town, and the second in Chooralmala. The massive landslides wreaked havoc in the region, damaging houses and roads, uprooting trees, and swelling water bodies, which hindered rescue operations. Relief and rescue efforts are currently underway.

The landslides in Mundakkai and Chooralmala, Wayanad, have resulted in 167 confirmed deaths, as per the Kerala Revenue Department.

According to sources from the Department of Information and Public Relations (PRD) Control Room in Wayanad, 96 victims have been identified, including 77 men, 67 women, and 22 children. Post-mortem examinations have been conducted on 166 bodies and 49 body parts.

A total of 75 bodies have been handed over to relatives. Rescue personnel have brought 219 individuals to hospitals; 78 are still receiving treatment, while 142 have been moved to relief camps.

In Wayanad, 73 people are hospitalised, and five in Malappuram. Amid the rising death toll, the Indian Army has intensified its efforts to rescue people stranded after the landslides.

According to the Ministry of Defence, “The Army has set up a “Command and Control Centre” headed by Major General VT Mathew, General Officer Commanding, Karnataka and Kerala Sub Area, along with Brigadier Arjun Segan, at Kozhikode for coordinating HADR efforts.”

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Kozhikode:

The activists of KSU and MSF on Saturday waved black flags at Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan in Kozhikode, protesting against the alleged shortage of plus-one (Class 11) seats in schools across the northern Kerala region of Malabar.

Kerala Students’ Union (KSU) and the Muslim Students’ Federation (MSF), the students wing of the Congress and the Indian Union Muslim League respectively waved black flags at Vijayan when he reached here to take part in a Kerala NGO Union event.

Nadakkavu police said 12 activists were taken into custody in connection with the Saturday evening protest.

The opposition parties in Kerala are protesting against the apathy of the state government in resolving the issues related to the alleged shortage of plus-one seats in schools of northern Kerala.

The Left government has been facing flak over the issue after a girl student in Parappanangadi in Malappuram district in the region died by suicide on June 11 allegedly over anxiety about whether she would get a seat for plus-one to continue her studies.

While the Congress has been demanding that additional plus-one seats be allotted in schools in the Malabar region to address the alleged shortage of seats there, the Kerala government has claimed that there is no crisis in plus-one admissions at all.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Kochi:

The Kerala High Court today directed that notices be sent to Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and his daughter T Veena in a petition by Congress legislator Mathew Kuzhalnadan, accusing them of corruption.

On Tuesday, the Director General of Prosecution questioned the petition, but the court, after hearing both the sides, directed notices to be sent to Chief Minister Vijayan and Veena and posted the case for July 2.

Speaking to the media, Mathew Kuzhalnadan said, “This is a normal procedure and now the case will be heard in detail and we will wait for that.”

Leader of Opposition VD Satheesan said the Congress was strongly behind Mathew Kuzhalnadan’s legal fight.

Mathew Kuzhalnadan approached the high court after a vigilance court rejected his plea seeking a court-monitored probe into the allegations of corruption against the Chief Minister and his daughter.

He had sought a probe by the Vigilance and Anti-Corruption Department into the allegations that Veena Vijayan’s IT firm Exalogic got monthly gratification from a Kochi-based mining firm, Cochin Minerals and Rutile Ltd (CMRL), for mining sanctions.

Several agencies, including the ED, SFIO and Income Tax Department, have recorded the statements of many people, except T Veena in the case. The case was highlighted by the Congress leader last year based on an Income Tax Settlement Board statement which pointed out that Exalogic received Rs 1.72 crore from CMRL.

A similar petition was earlier filed by a Kochi resident on alleged corruption by Chief Minister Vijayan, but the petitioner died.

Following this, the High Court appointed an amicus curiae. The court today said both petitions, though similar in nature, would be heard separately.

(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

Thiruvananthapuram:

Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan on Sunday slammed senior BJP leader and Union Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar for his social media posts criticising him over a blast at a convention centre in Kalamassery, saying it was part of his communal stand.

Without naming Rajeev Chandrasekhar, he, during a press conference here, sought to know based on what information the union minister made such remarks against him and how a person holding a responsible position could come out with such statements while the investigation was going on.

During the brief press meet held at the Secretariat complex here, the Chief Minister also read out the English and Malayalam statements by Rajeev Chandrasekhar posted on his X handle.

“Dirty shameless appeasement politics by a discredited CM (and HM) @pinarayivijayan besieged by corruption charges.”

Sitting in Delhi and protesting against Israel, when in Kerala open calls by Terrorist Hamas for Jihad is causing attacks and bomb blasts on innocent Christians,” the minister posted on social media earlier in the day after the reports about the multiple blasts came out.

Pinarayi Vijayan alleged the statements were the reflection of an absolute communal outlook.

Indirectly attacking other BJP leaders who also responded on similar lines, he said those who were with the minister also came out with similar statements.

“A person who holds the post of minister should have shown at least some respect to the investigating agencies. Though the Kerala police is probing the incident now, we all saw reports that central agencies have also reached the site,” the Chief Minister said.

He further said they have taken a stand targeting a particular group, and it was part of their communal stand, but Kerala has never been on that agenda.

Noting that such statements should be viewed with seriousness, Pinarayi Vijayan also urged people not to fall for such campaigns.

He also warned stringent action against those who unleashed venomous campaigns through social media platforms with regard to the incident.

The Chief Minister also assured that whoever be the accused, they would be brought before the law to ensure maximum punishment.

Meanwhile, a 21-member special investigation team (SIT) of the Kerala Police, headed by ADGP Ajith Kumar, has been constituted to probe the case.

Two women died and 51 others were injured, some seriously, in multiple blasts at a Christian religious gathering in a convention centre near this port city on Sunday morning, sending shockwaves across Kerala.

The blasts took place at an international convention centre in Kalamassery, where hundreds of followers of the minority Christian group Jehovah’s Witnesses had assembled on the concluding day of a three-day-long prayer meeting.

A few hours after the incident, a man claiming to be a member of Jehovah’s Witnesses, surrendered before police in Thrissur district of the state, saying that he carried out the multiple blasts.

Police has registered an FIR against unknown persons under Sections 302 (murder) and 307 (attempt to murder) of the IPC as well as provisions of the Explosives Act and the anti-terror law Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA). 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Thiruvananthapuram:

The Kerala government has made it clear that the IT firm owned by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s daughter had duly paid the required Integrated Goods and Services Tax (IGST) for her business transactions with a Kochi-based private minerals company.

The government’s clarification came amid a raging row over financial transactions between the IT firm owner by Mr Vijayan’s daughter, T Veena, and the minerals company.

The Department of State Goods and Services Tax on Saturday informed Congress MLA Mathew Kuzhalnadan, who had levelled corruption allegations against Mr Vijayan’s daughter, that the matter he had raised with regard to her IT solutions firm had been verified.

Mr Kuzhalnadan had raised corruption charges against the transaction between Veena’s firm and the Kochi-based minerals company.

He had sought to know whether Veena had remitted IGST for the over Rs 1 crore that she had received from the minerals company.

He had also recently sought a vigilance probe into the corruption allegations against Ms Veena’s IT firm.

In a letter, the state tax department informed the Congress legislator that during the verification, it was found that the company owned by the chief minister’s daughter had remitted the IGST for the amount that she received from Cochin Minerals and Rutile Ltd.

However, the brief letter didn’t mention any other details, including the amount she had paid as tax.

Sources here said the GST Commissioner has already submitted a report in this regard to Finance Minister KN Balagopal.

A controversy erupted in Kerala recently over some financial transactions between the Kochi-based private minerals company and the chief minister’s daughter and her IT firm.

Evidence also cropped up that showed that the company had dealings with top leaders of both the ruling CPI(M) as well as the opposition Congress-led UDF.

The issue came to the fore after a Malayalam daily reported that Cochin Minerals and Rutile Ltd paid a total of Rs 1.72 crore to the chief minister’s daughter between 2017 and 2020.

The news report, citing a ruling of an Interim Board for Settlement, said that the Kochi-based company previously had an agreement with Ms Veena’s IT firm for consultancy and software support services.

Despite the fact that no service was rendered by her firm, the amount was paid on a monthly basis “due to her relationship with a prominent person”, the report said, citing the deposition of the minerals company authorities before the Income Tax Department.

However, Mr Vijayan rubbished the charges and said the allegations were made to tarnish his image and defame him.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Kannur, Kerala:

Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan rejected the statement made by HD Deve Gowda, in which former Prime Minister claimed that Pinarayi Vijayan had endorsed his choice to collaborate with the BJP. Pinarayi Vijayan further voiced his discontent with Deve Gowda’s assertions, terming his statement as “untrue” and “absurd”.

This comes after Deve Gowda on Thursday asserted that all state units of the JD(S), including Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Maharashtra, gave their consent to align with the BJP.

“In Kerala, the Janata Dal has been remaining with the Left Democratic Front for a long. The state leadership of Janata Dal has the legacy of remaining strongly with the LDF irrespective of the political flip-flops of its central leadership. However, CPI(M) has never tried to voice opinions on the internal issues of that party. As Chief Minister, neither have I intervened in their party affairs. It is totally against our mode of functioning. We are not responsible for their thoughtlessness,” he stated.

He further said that Deve Gowda himself should correct his absurd statement, as it would be a matter of propriety and ethics.

“The Kerala unit of JDS has made it clear that they oppose the BJP and thus they are not with Deve Gowda. Their state president Mathew T Thomas and minister K Krishnankutty have categorically said that the statement made by Deve Gowda is untrue,” he added.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said that it is not the first time that Deve Gowda has aligned with the BJP and further accused Deve Gowda of “betraying” his party’s ideology by aligning with the BJP to secure the chief minister’s seat for his son, Kumaraswamy.

“We all may remember Janata Dal aligning with the BJP in 2006. Deva Gowda betrayed the ideology of his own party in order to ensure the Chief Minister’s post for his son. Those in Janata Dal in Kerala are the ones who left the party along with the national leader Surendra Mohan in protest against the deceitful stance of Deva Gowda,” he added.

The Congress which has now responded to Deva Gowda’s allegations for political gains, have a history of helping the BJP in several ways and times, he said.

“In Kerala, they are sharing power with the BJP in local self-government institutions. No one has forgotten the story of Congress and BJP coming together for the victory of film actress Sumalatha in Mandya, Karnataka, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Sumalatha has now aligned with the BJP,” Kerala Chief Minister stated.

Congress should not ridicule itself by reciting Deve Gowda’s claim of an ‘illicit affair’, he added.

“There will be those in Congress who have had connections with the BJP and have benefited from it. They are the ones who have come out with the statements now, said the Chief Minister,” he said.

Earlier on Thursday, the former PM said, “In Kerala, we are part of the government and our MLA is a minister there. These units understood the situation that made us go with the BJP and supported our move. Our minister in the Left party’s government (K Krishnankutty) in Kerala has given consent to us.”

“Kerala’s Left government’s Chief Minsiter Vijayan has given full concurrence to move forward in Karnataka with the BJP to save the party. This is the position,” Deve Gowda claimed.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Thiruvananthapuram:

A political row has erupted in Kerala over a statement by JD(S) supremo H D Deve Gowda a day ago that Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had greenlit his party’s alliance with the BJP in Karnataka to protect its interests. Kerala JD(S) leader, K Krishnankutty on Friday, firmly refuted Mr Gowda’s statement.

Opposing the national leadership’s association with the BJP, Mr Krishnankutty also emphasised the state unit’s commitment to maintaining its alliance with the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF).

“I met him (Deve Gowda) along with our state president, Mathew T Thomas, MLA, and informed him about our objection to joining the BJP. The state party unit stands by the earlier decision to stand firm with the Left party in Kerala,” Mr Krishnankutty, who is also a minister in the LDF government in Kerala, said.

The opposition Congress alleged that the JD(S) revelation had established an undercurrent between the ruling CPI(M) and the BJP in Kerala.

Congress leader Ramesh Chennithala today said this is further evidenced by Mr Krishnankutty’s continued presence in the cabinet.

The CPI(M) state leadership is yet to officially react on the issue.

Earlier, the Kerala JD(S) unit had rejected the central leadership’s decision to join the NDA, opting to stand firmly with the LDF in the state.

This decision was made clear after a state committee meeting held in Kochi on October 7, where JD(S) Kerala president Mathew T Thomas underscored that the high command’s announcement lacked prior discussion within any party forum.

On Thursday, Mr Gowda, a former Prime Minister, had asserted that all state units of the JD(S), including Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Maharashtra, had provided their consent to align with the BJP.

“In Kerala, we are part of the government and our MLA is a minister there. These units understood the situation that made us to go with the BJP and supported our move. Our minister in the Left party’s government (K Krishnankutty) in Kerala has given consent to us,” he said.

“Kerala’s Left government’s Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has given full concurrence to move forward in Karnataka with the BJP to save the party. This is the position,” Mr Gowda claimed. 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Thiruvananthapuram:

Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan on Sunday flagged-in the first ever ship at the Rs 7,700 crore deep-water international Vizhinjam port.

Chief Minister Vijayan, joined by Leader of Opposition in the assembly VD Satheesan, Minister of State for External Affairs V Muraleedharan, Congress MP Shashi Tharoor and various state ministers, waved a green flag signalling the tugboats to push the huge Chinese ship — Zhen Hua 15 — from the wharf to the docking yard.

The tugboats pushing the vessel, which carries huge ship-to-shore and yard cranes, also gave it a water salute.

As the vessel touched the dock, firecrackers were burst and balloons released to welcome it.

Hundreds of people, across all age groups, arrived at the port area to see the ship arrive at the dock.

Zhen Hua 15 — which began its journey from China at the end of August, was scheduled to dock at Vizhinjam on October 4, but its journey got delayed due to bad weather conditions along its route.

On reaching Indian coastal waters, it first went to Mundra port in Gujarat to offload some cranes there and then proceeded towards Vizhinjam.

The Vizhinjam port is being constructed under the public-private partnership model. The Adani Group is the private partner in the development of what will become one of the largest ports in the world, once commissioned.

The project, scheduled to be commissioned in 2019, was delayed due to several issues related to land acquisition.

Vizhinjam witnessed violent protests as fishermen in the area opposed the project, alleging that the port would adversely affect their livelihood.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)