Sri Lanka elections: What are voters expecting?

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The Hindu

On September 21, Sri Lanka will vote for its new President. What sets this election apart from previous ones is that it’s the first since the country went through its worst economic crisis two years ago.

The Janatha Argalaya, or the people’s struggle, held the Rajapaksa family responsible, and the mass movement booted out the then President, Gotabaya Rajapaksa. 

After Gotabaya fled the country and quit office, Ranil Wickremesinghe, a familiar face in Sri Lankan politics for decades, took his place through a parliamentary vote that he won with the support of the Rajapaksas’ party, which still holds a majority in the legislature.

Now, with the Rajapaksas out of focus in this election, the contest is primarily a three-cornered race, between Wickrememsinghe, Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake.

Explained | A crucial election in Sri Lanka

Reporting and visuals: Meera Srinivasan

Voiceover and production: Kanishkaa Balachandran

The political landscape in Sri Lanka is set to change as its citizens elect a new President on Saturday. Sri Lanka’s 17 million voters will choose from among 39 candidates in the country’s first election after the people’s uprising of 2022, which led to then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s ouster.

This year’s election is dominated by two major alliances, the SJB (Samagi Jana Balawegaya) and the NPP (National People’s Power), apart from various smaller parties and independent candidates.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe of the UNP (United National Party) is contesting as an independent. Wickremesinghe, popularly known as RW, is being supported by many rebel legislators of the SLPP (Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna) headed by former president Mahinda Rajapaksa. Also in the contest are opposition leader Sajith Premadasa from the SJB alliance; leftist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna) – the presidential candidate of NPP – and Mahinda’s son, Namal Rajapaksa, as the SLPP candidate.

Poll surveys and experts suggest that Lankan voters are prioritising issues such as economy, education, health, law, and security. Matters of corruption and wrongdoing among politicians, which dominated the electoral narrative, have receded into the background after the 2022 unrest. Since most governments in the past didn’t solve the corruption issue, people feel it’s better to talk about development. They hope to elect a leader who can pull them out of dire poverty.

Gloomy past

In the last election, held after the Easter bombings on April 21, 2019, Gotabaya Rajapaksa of SLPP (Namal’s uncle) won a decisive victory and Sajith Premadasa came second. However, three years later, the world saw Sri Lankans oust President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, having endured a steady economic slide. The flawed economic and monetary policies of Gotabaya, along with the COVID-19 pandemic that dented tourism – a chunk of the economy – resulted in an unsustainable debt level. In April 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt and asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance. The Russia-Ukraine war further aggravated the crisis with rising food, medicine and fuel prices resulting in mass protests never seen before in the country’s history.

The uprising was given the name of ‘Janatha Aragalaya‘ (a Sinhala term). Then Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned and subsequently, his brother Gotabaya Rajapaksa quit as President and fled. Ranil Wickremesinghe, a former minister, became Prime Minister. In July 2022, Ranil took over as president through a parliamentary vote with the support of the Rajapaksas’ party SLPP, which still has the majority in the legislature. Ranil Wickremesinghe adopted severe austerity measures, with support from the IMF.

New leaders

Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s inept governance and his decision to leave the country tarred the image of the Rajapaksa clan and the SLPP the most. Most SLPP MPs are supporting either Ranil or Sajith in this election. Namal Rajapaksa, they say, is just a symbolic candidate to keep the SLPP alive.

Sajith’s SJB has the support of the Tamil and Muslim minorities, who form 11% and 9% of the population.

Though Tamil parties have fielded a common candidate, the largest party ITAK (Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi) has extended its support to Sajith Premadasa. In 2019 also, Tamils had voted for Sajith but there was an unprecedented consolidation of Sinhala votes behind Gotabhaya Rajapaksa after the Easter bombings, which helped him win the election.

The political space created by Rajapaksas’ dismissal was filled by Anura Kumara Dissanayake and the JVP, who urged Sri Lankans to go for a broader change. Once in the margins, the party has emerged as a credible, major political force.

As far as Ranil Wickremesinghe is concerned, most members of his party UNP are now with Sajith, though he has support from some legislators of the SLPP like state Defence Minister Premitha Bandara Tennakoon. Ranil is banking on his handling of the economic crisis to fetch him votes.

“People want change this time. They don’t want to vote for the same party and old candidates. The new voters, especially on social media, are rooting for Anura Dissanayake. However, on the ground Sajith has a lot of support base, especially in the rural areas,” says Thushara Gooneratne, editor-in-chief, Mawrata News.

“Most people think of Sajith as pro-poor just like his father, former President R Premadasa.”

India’s Stake

In recent times, anti-India sentiment has surged in the neighbourhood, because of various reasons. Be it Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka or Bangladesh, politicians have been successful in diverting the people’s ire towards India.

For India, the sorry plight of the Tamil population in the north and east of Sri Lanka has been a concern for a long time. Successive Lankan governments have failed to implement the 13th Amendment signed as part of India-Sri Lanka agreement in 1987, which provided for devolution of powers to local governments in the north and the east. India, in fact, raised the Sri Lankan Tamil issue at the 51st session of the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva in 2022. With the new government, India would like to push for the restoration of provincial councils, which would give a measure of autonomy to Lankan Tamils.

India has stakes in a stable and peaceful Sri Lanka. It wants to restrict China’s growing interference in the country because of its geo-strategic location in the Indo-Pacific. The 99-year lease of Hambantota port to China in 2017, feeding the debt-trap narrative, has exacerbated India’s concerns.

Anura Dissanayake’s party has often been seen as close to China, India’s principal geopolitical rival. But for some time now, Dissanayake has enjoyed a different kind of authority within Sri Lankan politics, which has in turn earned him recognition as a rising political force even from India’s point of view. As a reflection of this, New Delhi invited Dissanayake in February to engage with him.

“Whoever wins this time will engage with India. Sajith is pro-India. But even Dissanayake, who was known to be anti-India before. India is important for Sri Lanka’s growth and stability,” says Thushara.

India needs all the goodwill it can command in order to navigate the increasing complexities in the neighbourhood, The escalating regional conflicts and a continuous shift in the global economic order. A friendly, stable neighbourhood is a good start.

Wang Wenbin. File
| Photo Credit: ANI

Sri Lanka on October 11 welcomed China’s tentative agreement to a debt restructure, as the island nation works to restore its ruined finances after suffering its worst-ever economic crisis.

The government defaulted on its $46 billion debt last year at a time when months of food and fuel shortages were making life a misery for Sri Lanka’s 22 million people.

Beijing is the island’s largest bilateral lender and its consent is needed for any proposal by Colombo to reorganise its finances.

Deputy Finance Minister Ranjith Siyambalapitiya said approval had now been granted by the state-owned Export-Import Bank of China, its official creditor. “China has issued their primary consent to restructure our debt,” he said in a statement.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters on Tuesday that the bank had “tentatively agreed” with Sri Lanka on its debt treatment in late September.

“We are also glad to see that other creditors are having discussions with Sri Lanka as well over solutions to its debt issue,” he added. Neither party shared further details of the agreement.

China holds about 52% of the South Asian nation’s bilateral credit, with Japan and India the next-biggest lenders. Beijing had in March given in-principle agreement to a restructure of its loans to Sri Lanka, the final major creditor to do so.

That decision cleared the way for a staged $2.9 billion International Monetary Fund bailout, conditional on austerity measures such as tax hikes and cuts to generous public subsidies.

But a second tranche of $330 million was delayed last month, with the IMF saying it was still reviewing “financing assurances” from creditors on the detailed debt restructure plan Colombo proposed in June.

Sri Lanka’s central bank governor Nandalal Weerasinghe is this week in Morocco for a meeting with creditor nations and the IMF that does not include China.

“The IMF’s Sri Lanka mission chief Peter Breuer said the lender had “not yet been informed about any specific agreements” with creditors,” Bloomberg reported.

At the peak of last year’s crisis, months of civil unrest forced the ouster of then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa when protesters stormed his residence.

Ranil Wickremesinghe. File
| Photo Credit: AP

Dismissing the possibility of an international probe into the 2019 Easter terror attacks, Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe has reiterated that such an investigation into the incident was not permissible under the country’s law.

Responding to Sunday’s editorial in the Catholic Church’s Messenger newspaper titled “An international investigation team is needed for an independent, transparent, and thorough investigation and monitoring”, the President’s Media Division (PMD) said, “We cannot endorse the idea of international investigations into Sri Lanka’s internal matters.” “The Constitution of Sri Lanka and all other existing laws do not provide for conducting international investigations. Consequently, carrying out such investigations would be in violation of the law,” a press release by the PMD said on October 6.

Nine suicide bombers belonging to the local Islamist extremist group National Thawheed Jamaat (NTJ) linked to ISIS carried out a series of devastating blasts that tore through three Catholic churches and as many luxury hotels in Sri Lanka on April 21, 2019, killing nearly 270 people, including 11 Indians, and injuring more than 500.

The issue of the Easter attacks and its political undertone resurfaced in early September when the U.K.’s Channel 4 television station aired a documentary titled ‘Sri Lanka’s Easter Bombings – Dispatches’, alleging the involvement and complicity of certain government officials, including intelligence service chief Major General Suresh Sallay, in orchestrating the 2019 Easter suicide bombings.

It called the attacks a “crafted act” aimed at forcing a political change in favour of the then-powerful Rajapaksa brothers.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa announced his candidature three days after the attacks and was elected President seven months later. His elder brother Mahinda Rajapaksa was also the country’s former President and Prime Minister. Both Rajapaksa brothers were forced to resign last year amidst the unprecedented economic crisis in the island nation.

“The Minister of Public Security, Tiran Alles, spoke to the Catholic Bishops Conference on Thursday and was informed that the Rev. Father Harold Anthony was in the process of studying a voluminous presidential commission report on the Easter attack investigation that had been delivered to him in April,” the press release said. It added that Mr. Wickremesinghe would meet the Catholic Bishops conference after they study the report.

During a fiery interview with the German state-owned broadcaster Deutsche Welle (DW) against the backdrop of Channel 4’s allegations last week, Mr. Wickremesinghe dismissed the Channel 4 revelations and said that Sri Lanka will not have any international inquiry into the Easter blasts. “It is out,” he said.

“The Sri Lankan government does not have international investigations. Full stop. Few people may want (it), but the Parliament doesn’t,” he said.

A prime panel headed by retired Supreme Court Justice SI Imam was appointed by Mr. Wickremesinghe to investigate the British channel’s allegations. The Opposition, however, blames the President for going back on his earlier pledge to let Scotland Yard investigate the 2019 attacks.

They claim that Mr. Wickremesinghe is reliant on the support of the Rajapaksas to remain the President and, therefore, would not initiate an inquiry which could expose those behind the attacks. The attacks led to a significant political change in Sri Lanka. It has emerged that the then authorities had ignored prior intelligence on the attack by Indian intelligence agencies.